problems paying for their water bills but that's just my opinion. this is what we do we kill people and break things. we can see something is simple as people playing soccer games you can see individual players in their community the ball. you can only see his facial expression you can see he is a mouth open and crying out. maybe cursed us or maybe he asked. for forgiveness for. there must be near certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured.

america's military might and its foreign policy exist separately from one another the us is a formidable military power but sadly its weak foreign policy was that is why i'm not inclined to suspect the obama administration is pursuing some secret plan directed against iran. they see. this is. a low and welcome to crossfire for all things are considered on peter lavelle redrawing the map the rise of the islamic state or isis in the middle east is said to reorder political realities in the region the west's neo colonial agenda for the arab world is coming to an end it would seem the arab spring has been replaced with a jihadi some.

to cross not to be shaping of the middle east i'm joined by my guest michael barnett in washington he is a professor of international affairs at the george washington university as well as a member of the council on foreign relations also in washington we have got up by god he is a professor at the near east south asia center for strategic studies and in orlando we cross to scott rickard he is a former american intelligence linguist sorry gentlemen crosstalk rules in fact that means you can jump in anytime you want i very much encourage michel if i go to you first here in my introduction i talked about the arab spring that might have been that whole phenomenon was probably illusory considering what's happened since what happened in tunisia and in egypt but what do you think of the term jihadi summer when we think of isis well i think it's catchy and certainly it's a nice way of thinking about replacing our term of art which is the arab spring whether in fact we've gone from a spring to something that's dreary fall or winter i think is still to be

determined there's no question though that what we're seeing is by and large not simply the aftermath of the arab spring but also very much part of the effects that have been by the american invasion of iraq ok scott it's look at it in very broad terms it seems to me it's the end of the political order that was. designed by the western powers particularly france and great britain after the first world war where that whole that whole framework of the borders everything a lot of it's in question right now. well it's all in a broad stroke as you said earlier it's all about the one hundred year war henry kissinger called for this in the early eighty's this is by design there is a lot of conflict in the region that has been fueled by the americans the

french the british their nato partners as well as the the arab states that are partnered mostly sunni arab states that are partnered in the petrol petroleum business these folks have been working for a long time in other areas they same kinds of activities were going on in the eighty's during the iran iraq war there was activity going on in the kurdish mountains there was activity going on in the on the syrian side and homs with the help files al assad so this is a repeat of what happened in the early eighty's where this chaos is instigated by the west it's been heavily trained and heavily funded sent back over the last six or seven years isis was actually started around two thousand and six or two thousand and seven and they've been trading with the americans and british in jordan and also in turkey and there is a lot of cooperation in what's called being now called the kurdish regional

government area where this was this was actually separating from iraq and was trying to deal directly in the oil business because they were producing more oil than they are getting paid for so this is a region where by the west understands that if they break it up becomes weaker if they leave together become stronger so in a in a tactic that's been used over and over again you look at bernard lewis he's the founder of the fourth generation warfare whereby it's pretty much what sue said the enemy of my enemy and they've created but that another are doing everything we create going out and that creates a lot of. unintentional consequences your god out if i go to you in washington i mean you get this situation where the u.s. is still obsessed with overthrowing assad and then assad is going after isis and you have the iranians coming in to protect the government in baghdad i mean this is it gets complicated doesn't it it is very much and the middle east has always been

complicated that are religious sick scorn flecks and the inevitable i. told system doesn't alter want to go our way and take some time for design new emerging system or. to make. just one point i have to say this i agree with scott about. that a sponsor board for all this or daughter or instability in the middle east for shorter foreign power does have their own interests. european union united states china but all saw that. it has its own. problems its on the contradictions and it has that people live there have to take charge of their own life and these challenges yeah yeah but if michael fine go to if we go

back to the invasion of iraq here and think about israel's supporting a kurdish state here we're talking about changing borders now now for a while now it looked like iraq was partitioned no one wanted to talk about in washington because everybody knows it was a total screw up out war but you now we see it with isis we see a possible kurdish state i mean that once you start changing borders you can start changing a lot of other borders too well i think that's right i mean to go back to some of this point scott made the idea that somehow what is result in the regime is somehow either by design or by desire on the part of the west i think is actually a bit of a stretch if you were to have told western officials especially those here in washington that what you're about to get is is a middle east in which is the limits are now roaming free and iran is now seen as

a potential savior this would be seen as a disaster which it really is and given this chaos this is actually you know very situation in which you can think about exploiting the resources of the arab world i completely agree that what's been going on here is in many ways not just one hundred year war but it's been it's. the beginning of world war one but also the century anniversary of the end of the ottoman empire what's going on is really a fight for succession of the ottoman empire which has been now as i said one hundred years long campaign and that includes obviously not just simply the borders of palestine it includes also the borders of kurdistan and i think right now what we're seeing what we're what we have is simply a once again a recognition that the borders were illegitimate not simply illegitimate because they were imposed from the outside but because arab rulers themselves never thought

to rule with any sense of legitimacy for the future and so as a consequence things are are falling apart ok scott you disagree go ahead this is crosstalk that's the point oh yeah totally disagree i mean these are these are puppets that are put in place by the west you have to take a look at the history of all the leaders that were in place past autumn and empire these are indeed individuals which by the way was overthrown by the british and was a partner of the british when they were fighting the french and the russians so this is a this is a very calculated move by individuals who understand the region much better than most of the world and these are very very good scholars that have written very heavily in the petroleum business in the humanitarian business but they haven't paid attention to the real facts the real facts are we're talking about ten thousand isis troops and about ten thousand troops these are very small armies that have been basically the shiites in the north said let's drop our weapons let these

guys go and we're backing off because they knew what was happening they saw that these guys were going to come in and they knew that they're going to head over there on these are people that were loyal to the party they knew exactly what was happening this has been going on on the iraq and the syrian border for quite some time the syrians were beating. the well trained individuals are well funded and well trained about two and a half to three billion dollars over the last three years alone and it's coming from qatar it's coming from all the puppet states that are very pro-west and they're getting these weapons from the west and then shipping them into these guys through turkey through syria through through iraq and through jordan and it's happening over and over and over again in fact only three weeks ago obama approved another twenty seven million dollars and now they're talking about approving four thousand hellfire missiles for the iraqis so what is the best case for the hundred

year war that we're talking about is you're talking about individuals who understand that if they can embroil saudi arabia and iran in an all out war it'll be very similar to what happened to iraq and iran and it will destroy saudi arabia and that is something that they do want from the west eventually they don't want saudi arabia they've just sold saudi arabia seventy five billion dollars of equipment from the west so don't tell me that this is not a western calculate move there is tons of equipment going into this area and it's not coming from russia it's not coming from china it's all it's coming from the west you know kick out and go ahead i want you to jump in go ahead ok i believe we don't need to go through with the if and when to spare i see they're ready and i don't know to have you got a conspiracy there if you like the look of the seventy billion dollars i tell it was very well publicized and i wouldn't go ahead and watch seventy five billion dollars what the weapon was not a conspiracy jumping if i may if i may scott what is going to go on is very much

six sitting on water between shia and sunni or between and not a site where in war when they had al and seventy billion dollars worth the weapon that we're going to extend the united states does not have interest and they can fly it's in sync video there will be ruling and sony and look at the accent over them. they are in syria if it. doesn't then therapy and and believe president obama is picking. selling and. meeting. it is. and. countries have interests because it is their neighborhood because. iran has never attacked saudi arabia iran defended itself against our war from oh i don't i would have just been here we've got a way short break we're going to break it out to the tropical continue our discussion on the middle east today with our.

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her. mother. or all things considered i'm. discussing the reshaping of the middle east. ok michael i'd like to go back to you in washington was mentioned earlier in the program about a possible showdown between the sunni world and the shia world and obviously that means saudi arabia and iran what do you think of that because you really have so many odd bedfellows going on right now in that region of or it isn't only your enemy's enemy you're dealing you know your enemy your friends are dealing with your enemies and like i said earlier it's a very complicated but what about this showdown between the sectarian differences

here well i think again this is actually a matter of contrivance and convenience that will oftentimes when we talk about sectarian differences and in this case we try to break it down into sunni versus shia there is certainly a religious divide but in fact those religious divides are very much also underwritten by. over the attempt to sort of divide up the political spoils of power they're about economic interests and economic powers if you look at lebanon for instance where a lot of the sunni shia divisions are supposed to be splitting apart lebanon yes there's no question that religion is a term of art for mobilization but if you look at the underlying differences a lot of those differences originated in the fact that the shia were the downtrodden marginalized class and so therefore religion becomes a mobilizing feature so i my caution is that religion is attempting way

to quickly stereotype a region but in fact what you see and you have seen is that the quite possible. that we have seen in iraq is that there are cross-cutting allegiances people actually shift all the time and that sometimes the splits within the sudanese as we're seeing may be more important than the splits between the sunni and the she lives ranger. scott going back to isis it seems isis is very convenient for the obama administration because they really don't like the regime in baghdad very much they're too friendly with the iranians. for example but you know one of the things that you need let these people loose it's really hard to put them back bring them back and i have to wonder if saudi arabia is going to be looking over its shoulder ok isis it's sunni but these people very unsavory i mean they could turn on the saudis. well that's exactly right and they are getting broiled with a war with iran and i don't think iran will take the bait they've said they're not

going to put troops on the ground but what's really key here is you have to take into consideration that ninety percent of of assad's forces are sunni so he has a lot of sunni backing within so when you say it's a sunni shiite war is very small factions my remember i said it's only ten thousand troops you know we're talking about a country of twenty million people. in syria and many more and in iraq so these are very small groups of people you know everyone always hears about husband all of us ball is under ten thousand troops so the numbers are over exaggerated but yet they are heavily funded and they are heavily given you know training and giving support you know they were given a lot of and these are easy prey these are young children who have lost their parents who have been fighting since or ten years old so they're very easy individuals to manipulate and to turn in the directions that you want and yes they

do go on directions sometimes that you haven't predicted but in the end you're getting what you want you're getting the chaos and you're getting customers that are willing to basically bid your your wrongdoings and that's what they're looking for as they're looking for the creating on ras because they realize they realize that the maliki government wasn't cooperating in the way that they were good they were looking in fact they were thrown out in two thousand and eleven to try and they didn't like it and they don't like that they don't like the fact that they're not in control of iraq and they don't like the fact that the kurdish regional government wasn't wasn't playing ball either so they had a lot of individuals that they that got help me always helping others are the same forces go ahead ok this is crosstalk michael jump in place too. i i i'm hoping scott will help me out because what i'm hearing is that on the one hand these are puppet regimes and so so therefore they do whatever the americans won on the other hand what we're hearing was that the americans are pretty unhappy and so they're

dividing i mean creating chaos mike so i'm just not either we've got control or we don't have control if you could actually explain to me when it is that the united states seems to have control so we don't want a lot will in iraq you know iraq and iraq they want and allow it and then they sound like my god scott so i say hang on guys think it's going to be i want to go down and washington go ahead i believe you out of you out of giving too much for through like this and i think. the you know x. if you have to any country and i would have walked through the controls the controls of international shipping say. oh i keep going keep going get out go ahead man i mean maybe this is true is that religion is a big part of the story but it is not the whole story and i really don't i cannot ignore the islamic country and i believe it will be a very bad forty one like this it's going to be and in

a lot of muslim conflict this lemma conflict and it is also true is that you know and we have been entertaining for over forty years ago bottom end baghdad again i mean as a war in iraq war was because we had a ridiculous so needleman it's a government in baghdad it is a national security issue for it and it and will never accept to leave with so needleman at the government in baghdad and so that it be out of office have to on the stand ok scott you know that you know we have we have this mission creep going on again obama keeps letting the numbers get bigger and bigger and helicopters and whatnot what you know the united states did this for ten years billions of dollars you know so much training what is a few hundred less than a thousand going to do now they just want to have another forced regime change of a regime that they already had a force machine change they want to get rid of moloch he. so so maliki wasn't their

choice allow it was their choice and so they ended up with maliki and maliki threw him out now that's that's a fact i mean this is not a conspiracy theory you just need to be a minor historian to understand this is doesn't go back very far we're talking less than ten years and the other facts are is that you have for an hour a lot of power tools for the united states that you think it's amazing that they couldn't get their way in iraq and that they allowed themselves to be thrown out by a politician who has less than fifty percent of the popular vote in iraq so that again i just don't understand so well michael michael if i could be so be feral mind it will not have all the good that you let me let me let me try something that michael said i mean you know the united states you know it least officially brought democracy to iraq all right and then the democratically elected government asked the united states to leave i mean the united states can't have it both ways can it

mean. that easy or not for me like this there will be you know i know a lot of foreign. somehow you go out and i cannot believe that all going gentlemen go we underestimate the military power of the united states it is the largest military infrastructure ever built in the history of the world they have the largest navy that was ever constructed in the history of the world they have the most resources they have individuals that are heavily involved in war there these are dogs of war these are dogs of hell that love their job and want to be good at it and want to continue it and you don't think that these guys are the whole initially scott's never read military his urine off if you had read military hero i've got anything to read military history you would know that there's a huge difference between military power in the projection of power and control and if you actually looked at the situation at all in afghanistan and iraq you would actually understand that difference that this is something that all great powers

have i just struggling with and so the very fact that the united states and understand why they're overwhelmed percentage the largest military budget does not mean it gets to control things on the ground well that's right because the united states with its military can't win wars that's proven in this century year got out let me go back to you because we're rapidly running out of time winning the mail or come on let's keep going you guys different thing come up that great got out let me go back to you in washington do you think you know you know and this is very hypothetical would we be in the situation we are now if the united states had not illegally invaded in two thousand and three in iraq. yeah it is very hard to change it has only us. some people are you thinking what they've done some people pause but it isn't obama it was agonise over water bottle it is then we have to move on moving goal and i believe the best thing for the united states now is store yes thanks chris burns of already there are just going by these reparations

again apologies again. and it is in united states based interests now daughter who is the other city is not an arab middle eastern country is. it and as there are even arab countries need some thought and be able to fly in and. find that entity you can't have anybody come on you guys don't you know michel join michael michael you know what do we learned here is that the this region need more outside intervention or less. well it's never been either or and again that's simplifying the situation clearly the american invasion of iraq has to go down as one of the dumbest decisions ever made not just by an american president but by any foreign leader so i take that as a given i was opposed to the war i was opposed to it a decade ago i was supposed when the ramp up turned out in fact worse then i could

have imagined so let's just say you know for me it is simply a statement of fact that this was an incredibly stupid boneheaded move. already that i have that more made and i have one bit i left that i can agree on scott scott should the united states just make friends with him when you make of the region a lot easier well united states has had a bone with iran sense they they helped the british overthrow most of day and they basically created false wars with the iran iraq war and they're creating a false narrative as iran being something that is dangerous to the rest of the world same thing they've done to all of their adversaries. you know basically the german wars and also you know so on and so forth they've done it all the time you look at what edward bernays did if you read the book propaganda mr barnett you'll understand that the media has controlled the minds and the edge and i have i am and

i want to i want michael to respond to that i want to be fair and i know you've got ten seconds and i thought you got please do we're almost out of time well i think it's fair to say that in terms of going back to this question of american intervention what you may see in the near future is the americans in fact retreating from the middle east in part because it's been a lose lose situation and most importantly we already are going to be going and i going to hand it to temptation weeks we're running out of time many thanks to my guests in washington and in orlando and thanks to our viewers for watching us here . see you next time and remember. at least one. is a. little .

colder my language a whole but i will only react to situations i haven't read the reports so i'm not pushing the no i will leave them to state park to comment on your point of the muslims say it's six am a car is on a dock in melbourne. they go no more weasel words when you have a direct question be prepared for a change when you run should be ready for a. pretty tough speech little down the freedoms of costs. this is what we do we kill people and break things. we can see something if simple as people playing soccer game you can see individual players and you can see the

ball. i can only see is facial expression you can see is now pope and crying out. maybe cursed us or maybe he asked. for forgiveness for. there must be near certainty that no civilians will be killed or in. america's military might and its foreign policy exist separately from one another the us is a formidable military power but sadly its weak foreign policy was that is why i'm not inclined to suspect the obama administration of pursuing some secret plan directed against iran. on marriage in the fine asshole moral. act series developments have not stopped the

advance only taken the demand to trade is not going to get any economic benefit in life there are two and there are both. gives a tillery is zeroes in on the eastern ukraine's a second to biggest metropolis a city already packed with refugees sparking fears of a new exodus also. became remind me picking your little moment for. you pointed me in the face and one conjures israeli security forces are under fire for the latest wave of violence in gaza and our team needs a palestinian boy who claims to have been savagely beaten by police. and the saga of their linen trying to repatriated or at least added to its golden helden volts across the atlantic and with analysts saying american law has germany dancing to its chewed r t.