maybe he asked. for forgiveness for. there must be near certainty that no civilians will be killed or in. a low and welcome to crossfire for all things are considered i'm teetotal of el redrawing the map the rise of the islamic state or isis in the middle east is said to reorder political realities in the region the west neocolonial agenda for the arab world is coming to an end it would seem the arab spring has been replaced with your hot summer.

cross talk to be shaping of the middle east i'm joined by my guest michael barnett in washington he is a professor of international affairs at the george washington university as well as a member of the council on foreign relations also in washington we have got up by god he is a professor at the near east south asia center for strategic studies and in orlando we cross to scott rickard he is a former american intelligence linguist sorry gentlemen crosstalk rules in fact that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage michael if i go to you first here in my introduction i talked about the arab spring that might have been that whole phenomenon was probably illusory considering what's happened since what happened in tunisia and in egypt but what do you think of the term jihadi summer when we think of isis well i think it's catchy and certainly it's a nice way of thinking about replacing our term of art which is the arab spring whether in fact we've gone from a spring to something that's dreary fall or went. i think it's still to be

determined there's no question though that what we're seeing is by and large not simply the aftermath of the arab spring but also very much part of the effects that have been unleashed by the american invasion of iraq ok scott it's looked at in very broad terms it seems to me it's the end of the political order that was. designed by the western powers particularly france and great britain after the first world war where that whole that whole framework of the borders everything a lot of it's in question right now. well it's all in a broad stroke as you said earlier it's all about the one hundred year war henry kissinger called for this in the early eighty's this is by design there is a lot of conflict in the region that has been fueled by the americans the french the british their nato partners as well as the the arab states that are

partnered mostly sunni arab states that are partnered in the petrol petroleum business these folks have been working for a long time in other areas a same kinds of activities were going on in the eighty's during the iran iraq war there was activity going on in the kurdish mountains there was activity going on in the on the syrian side and homs with the help files al assad so this is a repeat of what happened in the early eighty's where this chaos is instigated by the west it's been heavily trained and heavily funded sent back over the last six or seven years isis was actually started around two thousand and six or two thousand and seven and they've been trading with the americans and british in jordan and also in turkey and there is a lot of cooperation in what's called being now called the the kurdish regional government area where this was this was actually separating from iraq and was

trying to deal directly in the oil business because they were producing more oil than they are getting paid for so this is a region where by the west understands that if they break it up becomes weaker if they leave together become stronger so in a tactic that's been used over and over again you look at bernard lewis he's the founder of the fourth generation warfare whereby it's pretty much what sue said the enemy of my enemy and they've created but that another are doing everything we create going out and that creates a lot of. unintentional consequences your god out if i go to you in washington i mean you get this situation where the u.s. is still obsessed with overthrowing assad and then assad is going after isis and you have the iranians coming in to protect the government in baghdad i mean this is it gets complicated doesn't it. it is very much and has always been

complicated that are related. scorned flex and the inevitable and. old system doesn't alter want to go our way and it takes some planning for the new emerging system. to make. just one point i have to say this i agree with scott about. that a sponsor board for a disorder daughter or instability in the middle east for shorter foreign power to have their own interests. european union united states china but also that it has its own. problems its own contradictions and it has people who have to take charge of their own life and these challenges yeah but if michael fine go to if we go back to the invasion of iraq here and think

about israel's supporting kurdish state here we're talking about changing borders now now for a while now it looked like iraq was partitioned no one wanted to talk about in washington because everybody knows it was a total screw up out war but you now we see it with isis we see a possible kurdish state i mean that once you start changing borders you can start changing a lot of other borders too well i think that's right i mean to go back to some of this point scott made the idea that somehow what is resulted in the regime is somehow either by design or by desire on the part of the west i think is actually a bit of a stretch if you were to have told western officials especially those here in washington that what you're about to get is is a middle east in which is the limits are now roaming free and iran is now seen as a potential savior. or this would be seen as

a disaster which it really is and given this chaos this is actually you know very situation in which you can think about exploiting the resources of the arab world i completely agree that what's been going on here is in many ways not just one hundred year war but it's been it's a century of the beginning of world war one but also the century anniversary of the end of the ottoman empire what's going on is really a fight for succession of the ottoman empire which has been now as i said one hundred years long campaign and that includes obviously not just simply the borders of palestine it includes also the borders of kurdistan and i think right now what we're seeing what we're what we have is simply a once again a recognition that the borders were illegitimate not simply illegitimate because they were imposed from the outside but because arab rulers themselves never thought to rule with any sense of legitimacy for the future and so as

a consequence things are are falling apart ok scott you disagree go ahead this is crosstalk that's the point toto yeah totally disagree i mean these are these are puppets that are put in place by the west you have to take a look at the history of all the leaders that were in place past autumn and empire these are indeed individuals which by the way was overthrown by the british and was a partner of the british when they were fighting the french and the russians so this is a this is a very calculated move by individuals who understand the region much better than most of the world and these are very very good scholars that have written very heavily in the petroleum business and humanitarian business but they haven't paid attention to the real facts the real facts are we're talking about ten thousand isis troops and about ten thousand troops these are very small armies that have been basically the shiites in the north. let's drop our weapons let these guys go

and we're backing off because they knew what was happening they saw that these guys were going to come in and they knew that their government had overthrown these are people that were loyal to the bath party they knew exactly what was happening this has been going on on the iraq and that syrian border for quite some time the syrians were beating. the well trained individuals that were well funded and well trained about two and a half to three billion dollars over the last three years alone and this coming from qatar it's coming from all the puppet states that are very pro western and they're getting these weapons from the west and then shipping them into these guys through turkey through syria through through iraq and through jordan and it's happening over and over and over again in fact only three weeks ago obama approved another twenty seven million dollars and now they're talking about approving four thousand hellfire missiles for the iraqi so what is best case for the hundred year war that we're talking about is you're talking about individuals who understand

that if they can embroil saudi arabia and iran in an all out war it will be very similar to what happened to iraq and iran and it will destroy saudi arabia and that is something that they do want from the west eventually they don't want saudi arabia they've just sold saudi arabia seventy five billion dollars of equipment from the west so don't tell me that this is not a western calculate move there is tons of equipment going into this area and it's not coming from russia it's not coming from china it comes coming from the west you know pick out and go ahead i want you to just jump in go ahead ok i believe we don't need to go through with the if in going to split i see there already and i don't know how do you not a conspiracy there if you like the look on the seventy billion dollars i tell it was very well publicized and i wouldn't go ahead and watch seventy five billion dollars what the weapon was not a conspiracy jumping if i may if i may discuss what is going to go on. six thirty on the water between new water between it's not

a secretary and war when they have seventy dollars worth the when the great extent united states does not have. any other war huling it. and the great extent obama are serious if it. doesn't then therapy and and and i believe president obama is picking. it is. and. i was out of countries have interests because it is their neighborhood. iran has never attacked saudi arabia iran defended itself against going to war from oh i don't i would have just been here we've got a way short break we're going to break it out for that show break we'll continue our discussion on the middle east today with art.

is a. feel it was. very hard to take the time. to. do that. with me here. lists. lists

lists lists please. list. a. led police on your cultural phenomena like the bank of new knowledge base type you know a moment came. plenty of. pleasure to have you with us here on our team today i roll researcher. lead. told me my language

a goal but i will only react to situations i have read the reports and let me know what is the know i will leave them to the state department to comment on your latter point lead among the police agency it lists or carry out a car is on the docket no. local radio no more weasel words when you have a direct question really prepared for a change when you throw a punch be ready for a. privilege of speaking and down the freedoms of christ's. you know the one. is a. welcome back to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lavelle to mind you were

discussing the reshaping of the middle east. ok michael i'd like to go back to you in washington as mentioned earlier in the program about a possible showdown between the sunni world and the shia world and obviously that means saudi arabia and iran what do you think of that because you really have so many odd bedfellows going on right now in that region of or it isn't only your enemy's enemy you're dealing your enemy your friends are dealing with your enemies and like i said earlier it's a very complicated but what about this showdown between the sectarian differences here well i think again this is actually a matter of contrivance and convenience that will oftentimes when we talk about sectarian differences and in this case we try to break it down into sunni versus shia there is certainly a religious divide but in fact those religious divides are very much also

underwritten by. over the attempt to sort of divide up the political spoils of power they're about economic interests and economic powers if you look at lebanon for instance where a lot of the sunni shia divisions are supposed to be splitting apart levanon yes there's no question that religion is a term of art for mobilization but if you look at the underlying differences a lot of those differences originated in the fact that the shia were the downtrodden marginalized class and so therefore religion becomes a mobilizing feature so i my caution is that religion is. tempting way to quickly stereotype a region but in fact what you see and you have seen is that the quite possible. that we have seen in iraq is that there are cross-cutting allegiances people actually shift all the time and that sometimes the splits within the sunni's as we're seeing may be more important than the splits between the sunni and the she

lives raintree scott going back to isis it seems isis is very convenient for the obama administration because they really don't like the regime in baghdad very much they're too friendly with the iranians on molokai for example but you know one of the things that you need let these people loose it's really hard to put them back to bring them back and i have to wonder of saudi arabia is going to be looking over its shoulder ok isis that sunni but these people very unsavory i mean they could turn on the saudis. well that's exactly right and they are getting broiled with a war with iran and i don't think iran will take the bait they've said they're not going to put troops on the ground but what's really key here is you have to take into consideration that ninety percent of of assad's forces are sunni so he has a lot of sunni backing within so when you say it's a sunni shiite war is very small factions my remember i said it's only ten thousand

troops you know we're talking about a country of twenty million people and in syria and many more and in iraq so these are very small groups of people you know everyone always hears about husband all of us ball is under ten thousand troops so the numbers are over exaggerated but yet they are heavily funded and they are heavily given you know training and giving support you know they were given a lot of and these are easy prey these are young children who have lost their parents who have been fighting since are ten years old so they're very easy individuals to manipulate and to turn in the directions that you want and yes they do go in directions sometimes that you haven't predicted but in the end you're getting what you want you're getting the chaos and you're getting customers that are willing to basically bid your your wrongdoings and that's what they're looking for is they're looking for that creating unrest because they realize they realize

that the maliki government wasn't cooperating in the way that they were good they were looking in fact they were thrown out in two thousand and eleven to try and they didn't like it and they don't like that they don't like the fact that they're not in control of iraq and they don't like the fact that the kurdish regional government wasn't wasn't playing ball either so they had a lot of individuals that they that got help me always helping others are the same forces go ahead this is crosstalk michael jump in place too. i am hoping scott will help me out because what i'm hearing is that on the one hand these are puppet regimes and so so therefore they do whatever the americans won on the other hand what we're hearing is that the americans are pretty unhappy and so they're dividing up and creating chaos mike so i'm just not either we've got control or we don't have control if you could actually explain to me when it is that the united states seems to have control so we don't want a lot of will in iraq you know iraq and iraq they wanted allowing that and then

they sound like my god scott so i say hang on guys think it's going to be i want to go downtown in washington go ahead i believe you ought to you ought to give me two months for through and i think it's you and i think. the you know x. if you have to and you've got three and i would have walked through the trolls the controls of international shipping say. right keep going keep going get out go ahead man i mean maybe this is true is that religion is a big part of the story but it is not the whole story and i really don't i cannot ignore north country and i believe it will be a very bad for you like this it's going to be in in a lot of muslim conflict this lemma conflict and it is also true is that it and we have been intervening for over forty years ago bottom end baghdad again i mean the war in iraq war was because of the ridiculous so needleman it's a government in baghdad it is

a national security issue for it and it and will never accept to leave with so needleman at the government in baghdad and so that it be out of office they have told us then ok scott you know you know we have we have this mission creep going on again obama keeps letting the numbers get bigger and bigger and helicopters and whatnot what you know the united states did this for ten years billions of dollars you know so much training what is a few hundred less than a thousand going to do now they just want to have another forced regime change of a regime that they already had a force machine change they want to get rid of moloch he. so so maliki wasn't their choice allow it was their choice and so they ended up with maliki and maliki threw him out now that's that's a fact i mean this is not a conspiracy theory you just need to be a minor historian to understand this is doesn't go back very far we're talking less than ten years and the other facts are is that you have for and i are

a lot of power tools for the united states that you think it's amazing that they couldn't get their way in iraq and that they allowed themselves to be thrown out by a politician who has less than fifty percent of the popular vote in iraq so that again i just don't understand michael michael if i could be so just a feral mind will not be able to give. me one let me let me address something that michael said i mean it's you know the united states you know it least officially brought democracy to iraq all right and then the democratically elected government asked the united states to leave i mean the united states can't have it both ways can it mean. that he's or not for me like this there will be you know i know a lot of foreign. somehow you go out and i cannot believe that all your gentlemen go we underestimate the military power of the united states it is the largest military infrastructure ever built in the history of the world they have the

largest navy that was ever constructed in the history of the world they have the most resources they have individuals that are heavily involved in war there these are dogs of war these are dogs of hell that love their job and want to be good at it and want to continue it and you don't think that these guys are dark hole initially scott's never read military his europe off if you would read military hero i've got to read military history you would know that there's a huge difference between military power in the projection of power and control and if you actually looked at the situation at all in afghanistan and iraq you would actually understand that difference that this is something that all great powers have just struggle with and so the very fact that the united states and understand why there overwhelming percentage the largest military budget does not mean it gets to control things on the ground well that's right because the united states with its military can't win wars that fit proven in this century year got out let me go back to you because we are rapidly running out of time winning the come out and you

guys different thing come up that great got out let me go back to you in washington do you think you know you know in this is very hypothetical would we be in the situation we are now if the united states had not illegally invaded in two thousand and three in iraq. yeah it is very hard to change has us do than some people are you thinking what they've done some people opposed but isn't obama i was i gave his older bought his then we have to move on moving goal and i believe the best thing for the united states now is store yes thank his friends of probability they're not just going by these reparations again apology gives them. and it is in united states best interest now daughter who is the other city none arab middle eastern country is. it and is that are evil arab countries need some thought and be able to fly in and they have to find that entity

you can't have anybody come on you guys don't you called on each other and i call michael you know what do we learned here is that the this region need more outside intervention or less. well it's never been either or and again that's simplifying the situation clearly the american invasion of iraq has to go down as one of the dumbest decisions ever made not just by an american president but by any foreign leader so i take that as a given i was opposed to the war i was opposed to it a decade ago i was opposed when the ramp up it turned out in fact worse then i could have imagined so let's just say you know for me it is simply a statement of fact that this was an incredibly stupid boneheaded move. already that i have that more minute i have what i made i left that i can agree on scott scott should the united states just make friends with down in weight make of

the region a lot easier well united states has had a bone with iran sense they they helped the british overthrow most of the day and they basically created false wars with the iran iraq war and they're creating a false narrative as iran being something that is dangerous to the rest of the world same thing they've done to all of their adversaries. you know basically the german wars and also you know so on and so forth they've done all understand that the media has controlled the minds and the edge and i have i and i want to i want michael to respond to that i want to be fair and i know you've got ten seconds that's all you got please do we're almost out of time well i think it's fair to say that in terms of going back to this question of american intervention what you may see in the near future is the americans in fact retreating from the middle east in part because it's been a lose lose situation and most importantly we are already on the newbie point and i

felt i had to temptation weeks were run out of time many thanks to my guests in washington and in orlando and thanks to our viewers for watching us here ne see you next time and remember problem. basically. isn't. this is what we do we kill people and break things up we can see something if simple as people playing a soccer game you can see individual players and if you see the ball. i can almost see is facial expression because you see is

a mouth open and crying out. maybe cursed us or maybe he asked. for forgiveness for. there must be near certainty that no civilians will be killed or in. the same series of a couple of cases try to. say people are going to be going to do not want to give the title or destroy the teaching every minute. cut me. a laugh oh well. i have my own life but.

most of us think that's citing old times. most cases most elite moments. sometimes for nothing which. is so he said it simple. it's not just the story can still be jobs if you see a stage eight looking. but it was. one of the common law should be. the face.

of pleasure to have you with us here on t.v. today. america's military might and its foreign policy exist separately from one another the us is a formidable military power but sadly its weak foreign policy was that is why i'm not inclined to suspect the obama administration of pursuing some secret plan directed against iran. your friend posts a photo from a vacation you can't afford. a different. the boss repeats the same old joke of course you like. your ex-girlfriend still pens tear jerking poetry keep. ignore it. we

post only what really matters. to your facebook news feed. crane's military takes more cities in the east clearing the way with heavy artillery attacks and shelling of residential areas. became my meat with a little moment for. me to punch me in the face and one conjures our teammates a palestinian scene who was beaten by police as protests against alleged abuse of power by israel's pride. and go in for gold to germany's requests just to see its stock so fresh is not sold being held in the us got a resounding no from washington.