though there now our lead story today the economic implications of russia's involvement in the conflict over ukraine now as we all know russia has been facing increased sanctions from the u.s. e.u. and their allies as a result of the conflict in ukraine and sentiment towards russia assets has seriously seriously soured since the july seventeenth downing of a malaysian airlines jet in ukraine by a missile that the u.s. says was probably supplied by the russian military now german chancellor angela merkel has said that she's ready to back a halt on current arms sales to russia and would take part in an e.u. council session if one was convened merkel is hoping to have the e.u. sign off on sanctions by the end of this week and said that she's prepared for german technology exports to take a hit as expected blowback from such sanctions now the european commission that's

the twenty eight nation regulatory arm is drawing of detailed proposals for broader sanctions against against russia after getting the go ahead from e.u. diplomats this past friday the polish foreign minister said quote we are getting to a point when sanctions will be painful and double edged but if we don't introduce them the situation could get even worse now meanwhile russia's my sex index is set for its worst performing month since march and was down one point nine percent by the close in moscow on monday russian stocks fell to an eleven week low when the rubles of the most among emerging market currencies diplomats are scheduled to meet tuesday and are slated to curb russian bank access to the capital markets there are also expected to agree to curtail exports of defense and dual use goods and limits on equipment sales for deep sea drilling and shale oil production now despite all of this just last week the i.m.f. said that russia's g.d.p. will come. bandit zero point two percent this year and russia's economy grew zero

point one percent in the second quarter meaning that the country has avoided slipping into a technical recession the russian government has said that it expects the economy to expand zero point five percent this year which would be the slowest pace since russian president vladimir putin came into power in two thousand now this story isn't going anywhere and as always we'll be tracking all the latest developments for you here on bust. the. central banks around the world are playing a massive monetary experiment through quantitative easing but now someone out there done with it now on one hand the bank of england in the federal reserve they're getting out of the game but on the other hand the bank of japan is staying the course and the e.c.b. could be joining the q.e. game in the very very near future so i spoke with monetary guru dr david beckworth

about quantitative easing market monetarism and inflation he's a professor of economics at western kentucky university and a proponent of market monetarism and nominal g.d.p. targeting now i started off our conversation by asking him about conservative economic writer james cooper's his complaint about american conservatives obsession with inflation and their argument that it's under reported by the government i asked bet beckworth what he thought about this very subject and here's what he had to say. i think he makes a reasonable arguments and one that unfortunately is not always for you by my friends in the right he makes really great points if those numbers were true we would have seen a long recession and the implication of higher than for inflation over the past decade means a real g.d.p. with a negative for you know this is two thousand and we send seeing that. and there's

a tendency to want to look at things in a while price of gas i said milt but we're also going to things that go down look at our phones our smartphones a lot of the outside on there that used to cost money you know books encyclopedias g.p.s. radios all those things that we have purchased separately we now get practically for free we more of those things and we tend to focus on those things that do go up but that is pretty clear you know inflation has been if anything over the past five years during this crisis now pat cook us writes for the american enterprise institute which is a conservative think tank and he is indorsed nominal g.d.p. targeting is something conservatives should get behind so how would nominal g.d.p. targeting work well for people who believe in limited government. well you know ideal world it would restore monetary stability so that we would have to worry about what the fed is doing and we could be great to get to

a point where we didn't have to have conversations about the fed i mean this has policies that been honestly very ad hoc over the past five years i'm not sure the fed even knows what it's going to do from one meaning to the next i mean i know they are at least based on the conditions and stuff but even they are not one hundred percent certain you know how they respond how they will respond in different circumstances so one thing it will do is it would provide more rule based systematic behavior and we don't know what the future holds but it would be nice to know with some certainty how the fed would respond in different circumstances so put that into play the other argument you can make is that if you do get to the point where you are maintaining monetary stability you're going to have these big crashes like we had in two thousand in two thousand and nine you would also have the great depression nineteen twenty nine one hundred thirty three the sharp contraction and he had had those there would be calls for a large fiscal stimulus which really makes conservatives you know unhappy so you

know my my freedom my fellow conservatives are picture poison and i think the better one is to have a monetary policy driven by a nominal g.d.p. that maintains monetary stability and minimizes the need for other government intervention in the economy i think it's a compelling argument that many conservatives overlook dad let's talk about the tools that some banks can use to target nominal g.d.p. now the bank of england has stopped its quantitative easing the federal stops in but the bank of japan is doing it and some people are now urging the e.c.b. to use it as well so what's the empirical evidence they carry has actually been effective as a monetary policy tool and the us britain or japan. well honestly i think the evidence still to come in and we can't rush to judgment but what we do know i think does point to the possibility of q.e. doing a lot more than it's this been done so far at least in the u.s. and the euro zone japan is definitely taking

a very different path then the other major central banks is committed to a permanent belly of the monetary base is going to raise its inflation target from zero zero percent to two percent and the fed for example never made any of those commitments all the fed said is we're going to temporarily increase our balance sheet now that temporaries been within a few years but even now there are different debt to bring it down and it's the son came to you and say hey i'm going to give you a thousand dollars next year and i'm going to pay me back it's really not going to have that be effect on your your spending decisions however if you need to really keep that thousand dollars for every definitely change how you respond and the federal reserve is effectively done something white that is and this is evident if you look at inflation forecasts. they don't see any you don't see any sustained rates from the roughly two to not percent long term inflation forecast so the fed is said to say you know it's very clear q least temporary what we're doing is this is a stopgap measure japan this is taking

a very different approach this approach is what christina romer calls the a rigid regime change it's you know it's going to permanently double the size of the monetary base which is going to and the long run raise the price level raise dollar income yen incomes and that by itself sends a signal back to the present that i need to rebalance my portfolio any things differently so there is a fundamental difference and of course a good suit europe which hasn't done anything near that at all it's even worse if you know if you look at the numbers come out of japan and i'm going to be careful because japan's an initiative taxes there's not it's not clear that everyone supports it in japan but what we've seen so far is their g.d.p. . numbers are higher in the u.s. in the euro zone they've gotten core inflation up believe it got to three point three percent is this core inflation this is you know the trend underlying movement it's it's kind of zero it's around three percent now that's remarkable given they had twenty years of deflation and stagnant growth so the evidence so far that

suggest it can't be done we thought wait and see if a sustainable if there's the political will for it and it really did the day it comes out of a political decision so if you were doing q.e. how would you have done it so that it would have been more effective and one of seems to have capricious so ad hoc. well our started back in two thousand and eight course this is easy to say this now but i would have said look if i were are the dictator of fed i would communicate the public very clearly and continually that i will do whatever it takes to keep the economy in nominal g.d.p. or nominal g.d.p. on his trajectory by that i mean keep growing and on the path that had been capacitive caters so dollar a couple continue to grow about forty five percent a year on average and then commit to do whatever is possible it would it would signal that it may take some first steps it would be very very aggressive of front that is how you do it and if it had done that and again it may be taken some time

instead of us you would have seen the need for this subsequent you know q e one q each huge huge victories and i would argue that the q.b. that we saw that we had our evidence that fed policies weren't very effective if i could go below the balance sheet means they're not addressing the problem is the problem is there's still a hide me you know of a demand for some liquid safe assets people are still somewhat uncertain so if you can address upfront that figure even in the budget he go a long ways and not having to worry about it if you go to australia if you could grow on them they could be good they were very aggressive during the great recession hit them too and they were able to stabilize the group half of their nominal congar nominal g.d.p. and yet they did not have to have a huge you know expansion of their balance sheet so they signaled their commitment and they were able to do it and now that anderson you have australia is they also

had a huge housing boom a lot of household debt and despite that they're able to do much better than the us during the great recession. that was dr david beckworth professor of economics at western kentucky university. time now for a very quick break but stick around because when we return dr john has verified this is on the program now yano sat down with me earlier today to discuss the latest happenings in and around euro land and then in today's big deal edward harris and i are discussing europe at the i.m.f. and loan the euro centric show today and remember you can see all segments of peter and in today's show on you tube have you tube dot com slash boom bust r t and on through hulu dot com slash boom dash but now before we go here are a look at some your closing numbers of the bell.

crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want.

iran like syria has been george very harshly on the leaves on the constant sad. isn't it justified the aim is not pursuing the weapon and you know raising to spectrum off pursuit of the irrelevant would lead to one young who say move ton use he was developing nuclear weapons and. recently did they want to see the full dump of being removed in full makeup and form the story we would be stupid not to take you. live on your arm in a lot of these communities face. a

pleasure to have you with us here on t.v. today i'm sure. if you drive people away from the dollar many people now it must be sitting there saying gosh if we have u.s. dollars and the us decides they don't like us they're going to put sanctions on us so people more and more people will say maybe i shouldn't use the us dollar.

well some guy now after the great financial crisis greece plummeted into a hole. it's still still struggling to climb out of but with real wages declining it economic growth looking weak when will the greek economy finally recover that's the big question so to get a better handle on this situation i spoke earlier with dr younis verified is professor of economics at the university of texas at austin and he holds the same position at the university of athens and we spoke to him from greece where he is now younis is also the author of the book the global minute america the true causes of the financial crisis and the future of the world economy i first asked yanis what he thought of joseph stiglitz argument that the e.u. has focused on public sector debt and deficits when the real problem is private debt here's what he had to say. indeed he has accepted that he's not spelling out precisely what he ought to be saying. what he what what what what the. truth behind the phony emphasis on public

that has to do with the banking sector the banks of spain portugal of greece of france of germany where the states of two thousand and eight and the whole emphasis on problem that the whole purpose of the bailout loans was so as to cynically effect the transfer of banking losses from the books of the banks onto the shoulders of the taxpayers with us the great emphasis on public that which was not just applied to a micro-economic grounds. now yes i want to have a more wide ranging conversation with you today but we got to talk about greece and i can't help but notice the private sector wages in greece are still dropping so when is a real recovery going to occur there. the answer to your pertinent question is when europe and the government it's a come clean when they come clean on the facts of the. insolvency of the greek

a social economy happened in two thousand when it seemed really with its transforming itself was not going away as a result of our good we never dealt with it we dealt with it by piling up huge new debts on the shoulders of an insolvent state and then that state passed it on to the private sector in the form of tax hikes and pensions and so on that that induced aggregate demand so that they insolvency that begun two thousand and eight seemed really. with the economy when we stopped doing that then there would be a chance of recovery. now i also notice that house prices in greece are still dropping and the combination of lower wages and house prices still dropping has to put the squeeze on the middle class and that could cause the recession to go on for longer so where is the demand going to come from. the answer is that there has been a pick up a slight pick up in demand over the last eight nine months for us for

a very simple reason the decision by a chancellor merkel not to boot greece out of the euro have. restored a little bit of confidence amongst those greeks who have money abroad and bring it to greece and spend it so that has caused a little bit of a pickup but under no circumstances recovery and we've also had a boost of good because of the troubles of the egyptian tourist industry and in particular the turkish tourist industry but none of that is going to stop this. vicious cycle of self reinforcing recession with there will be no serious investment to speak of as long as the good state and the good banks are the main insolvent so the government budget is now supposed to be in surplus but do you think that this has any significance. well let's be

clear on something the big budget is in. a deficit of between ten and twelve percent. if you try to subtract from that deficit. the interest payments due to our creditors then the greek government is more or less breaking even. perhaps it is a small deficit but remember greece is in the class of a loan agreement with its credit goes to the troika of lenders and under the loan agreement we are supposed to be running six percent primary surpluses year in year out for twenty years you know they'll be able to meet our repayments through the trick of lenders that is an impossibility and therefore it is to be speaking of surpluses. now greece had a government debt to g.d.p. of one hundred seventy point four percent through the first quarter of the year and

although by niels in greece are down short rates are high and that doesn't suggest an easy backstop for greece so how does greece get through this without a massive massive restructuring. it want the massive restructuring will have to happen if greece is to get through but remember i mean what has been happening over the last four years is the equivalent of the banking sector the strategy of extending and pretending. for years now a goose is being sold and. that the great and the good in europe as well as of the i.m.f. are extending credit cards lying to the greek government. under very stringent conditions that. from which the greek butland will have to repay those loans while the it was a black hole of greek debt is getting worse and worse and there is absolutely nothing on the horizon to suggest that this is. reversible and they live on less not only do we have

a got its character but we have less. of the problem of our banks which are insolvent remember great banks have non-performing loans in the region of forty percent so these are like two or three problems a similar thing a sleeve ending and they have to be tackled at once and if unless and until they have tackled it once. the greek story we continue along its path yet is what impact do you think that sanctions with more teeth by the e.u. against russia will have on the economy in the eurozone and in greece. greece is in such troubles that whatever happens between. the ukraine and europe. the level of economic destruction this country since i don't think is going to make much of a difference what is happening the european level however is that there is absolutely no doubt but while russia is going to suffer more than the eurozone in

absolute terms the fact that the euro zone is in its wrongs of deflationary forces the deflationary winds that are blowing very powerfully cried the gaiters and including the core of the gators on germany holland austria finland. they effect of sanctions and the ill effects of the standoff between russia and europe are simply going to make the deflationary forces more powerful and the job of the european central bank even more difficult. that was dr younis vera fokus professor of economics at the university of texas texas austin time now for today's big deal .

big deal time and time for. me here now today and i are discussing europe the i.m.f. and loans now first up is ireland that's first on our agenda and they're currently considering how to repay their debt to both the i.m.f. as well as the european union so at can you tell me about this what's going on what's up with our waterloo in the poster child for the european union terms of countries that have gone through austerity and gotten out on the other their economies growing this ng to be doing well compared to some of the others even though they have you know double digit unemployment and they still are having problems their house house prices are forty percent below their peak but they want to show that ireland's done well so the irish are looking to repay some of their loan so they can reduce the interest payments and so the question is can they get that done if they're going to repay some of the loans they have to repay them all they can't actually get a reduction in one sector and in the other so this is sort of an e.u.

wide kind of thing that's going to go forward i think that there's a good chance that the e.u. says yes to this and they're taking the right steps it sounds like most of all you know the steps and the. right have taken those steps to ok so ireland wants to pay back the i.m.f. loans first because they're more expensive that makes plenty of sense and that does seem to be the case at least the i.m.f. loans in ukraine for example they've been exacting a hard turn and political system so can you give me an update on what's going on there that's a big uptick compared to ireland you know obviously we're just getting started in ukraine but if you think about greece in ireland you know the hugh. harsh austerity is the is the positioning of the. in order to make these loans viable the ukrainian government basically collapse because they weren't able to get these terms through parliament we're talking you know privatization austerity pension cuts the whole nine yards and in addition to that there's also they have to raise their gas prices

to get rid of subsidies which the i.m.f. doesn't want them to have and so you know there is the potential that the basis of a failed state in your hands with ukraine no government there's a military confrontation there the same time so i think that you know the potential that the i.m.f. actually pulls the plug you can't discount right now an international court hog that russia must pay shareholders of defunct oil company u.k.'s fifty billion dollars. what is happening here is the big news today and what is the significance of this well for me the significance is the relationship between that event and what's going on in ukraine so you know obviously the western media sees russia as complicit in what's going on in ukraine and then at the same time you're getting this whole yukos thing the fifty billion dollars let's remember this is only part of the shareholders there are other shareholders who could get more money as well so we're talking you know. up to one hundred billion dollars in terms of liability

and wasn't that what the one hundred billion was the number that the shareholders were initially going for it was it was in this particular thing but that those are only part of the shareholders are actually others there's another lawsuit somewhere else that's going on for the other shareholders and they also want their money coming to them so you know from my perspective on the economic front this is this is mostly a political thing and really what it boils down to is the fact that people are the western media can look at this is saying look you know we have a rogue state here in two thousand and four two thousand and five look at what they're doing in terms of the rule of law they're exposed in the exact same way the . we now see with argentina you know argentina is a pariah state obviously this is not just a limited sort of incursion what's going on in ukraine russian involvement they've been a rogue state for a long time and we need to lower the boom on the increase and so i think it's all part of a. sort of narrative that is developing as we speak now various guests on the show

called the i.m.f. and other types and other types of sanctions financial warfare and now the tensions over ukraine might lead to even more sanctions against the russian economy so at what reactions are you seeing in the market as relates to these sanctions we only have twenty seconds but i would love to hear i think you know we're looking at russia that they're definitely undervalued but the question is the political risk associated with getting involved with those so i think that most people are you know staying away from russia and that's mostly see in the markets so there you have it this will not be the last time we talk about this that i feel for you. and thank you as always that's all for now we love hearing from you so please check out our facebook page at facebook dot com slash boom bust our teeth and please tweet us at aaron ate at edwards n.h. from all of us here at boom bust thank you for watching the scene at a time by. fish

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