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we can all middle of the room six. million more you'll need. a low end welcome across town for all things are considered i'm peter all of objectively speaking what is called the iran nuclear deal is a milestone for nonproliferation and diplomacy according to the international atomic energy agency iran is in compliance with the agreement signed during the obama. administration donald trump knows this so why does he want to trash the

agreement. cross talking the iran deal i'm joined by my guest. in pittsburgh he is a partner at global growth advisors international strategic consultancy group based in new york and in london we cross that he's an iran expert at middle east are generally across the uk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want i always appreciated in pittsburgh if i can go to you first here one of the things i'd like to focus on this program we know that i guess it's common knowledge now that donald trump is going to decertify this agreement. and looking at me in the mainstream media looking at all the cable stations it's remarkably low light on facts like for example the i.a.e.a. saying that iran is in compliance with this agreement but we hear about all this other stuff on the sides iran's behavior in the middle east in its other activities

in the region but if i could remember correctly one of the reasons they wanted to focus just on the nucular side of things because it was doable this wasn't an agreement to solve all problems in the middle east and i think you know this is this myopia that you we have in the in the in the policy rank surrounding the president of the united states and in congress here fail to understand that this is a good agreement and i'm not someone that was a big fan of obama foreign policy and i feel the consequences of walking away from it could be very very dangerous go ahead in pittsburgh you are you're right peter it would be a catastrophe it would be a foreign policy catastrophe very united states and also it would be a security catastrophe for the broader region if this escalates it will escalate if it goes on this path but let's remember the reason the j c p or a or known as joint comprehensive plan of action the deal that the p five plus one and iran. they agreed to on in two thousand and fifteen and the reason he was so

narrow is because that's the only thing that they could agree on if they would widen the scope of the deal there would be no agreement to begin with so that would be the problem so why did we have to keep you away from let's first of all let's figure out what is j c p a is nothing but an arms control deal period end of the sentence president obama signed it because he wanted to take military option off the table regarding iran and that's why they signed it by virtue of decertifying it what president trump is doing is he is getting the united states closer to a path of confrontation with iran and in fact putting the military option back on the table with iran so all in all what we're hearing in the media is noise here it's noisy it's real story is it's an arms control deal and had to be done you know weigh in on that because we had a sitting as president we had trump sign off on it every ninety days the the

president has to continue to be in agreement with this agreement here and he's walking away from it presumably there hasn't been an official announcement yet but you know what is driving this because he knows his advisors around him saying that iran is compliant here i mean this is one of the most odd things i've ever seen an american president do and i guess we have to all agree this is an odd president go ahead in london yeah i mean there's basically three things going on here peter firstly there's ideology i mean donald trump is by ideology committed to confronting iran and pushing back against iranian influence in the region he made that very clear in the run up to his presidential campaign and getting nominated and finally elected november last year so that's one thing second thing is it is his own personality you know he's his vanity and the fact that you know he wants to somehow destroy the legacy of barack obama and they just c.p.o. . it is the cornerstone of the obama presidency at least in terms of foreign policy

that's the second thing and the third thing is i mean he has a tendency to look beyond the establishment and the mainstream in washington d.c. in terms of policy so what is the main mainstream input on policy on iran for example it's the u.s. intelligence community is the u.s. state department and agencies such as those and of course all of these people including trump close advisors as you as you made it clear the defense secretary even the secretary of state they've all made it clear that they jay c.p.o. is in line with u.s. national security interests and as your colleague. made it clear correctly c.p.o. is effectively limited to the nuclear issue you know it's there to contain iran's nuclear program for ten to fifteen years however trump is going is trans ending that mainstream he's getting advice from quarters at side the mainstream i mean the pro israel lobby is one also the long time american strategist of people like henry

kissinger he was he met try a couple of days ago and so is these people trump is getting advice from and they're driving the overall narrative of his foreign policy and he seems to think that grandstanding against iran which is america's most potent enemy remember iran and the u.s. have been at loggerheads for nearly forty years this is a very complex tense and miti that stretches back to one thousand seven hundred nine there are many issues here there are many unresolved files and so he seems to think that grandstanding on this issue will raise its profile and would make his presidency at least in the first term memorable one and he seems to absorb the cost if he walks away from it what i think will be remembering it for a very long time for the wrong reasons to be able to go back to you in pittsburgh i mean there seems to be this assumption that the u.s. and it's not the only party that has other parties including iran into this walks away from. is that they're going to force to iran to renegotiate it based on what

fact based on what logic would one make that decision that will make them sit down again why would iran do that if it sees washington a new president walk away from an agreement that the united states has with the international community it's nonsense go ahead. well certainly iran will not sit down again and renegotiate. it will not happen period end of the sentence but something we have to keep an eye on is the certification is a political maneuvering in the united states decertification itself i want to be clear itself is not a violation of the nuclear deal but what it could potentially cause is it would expand a great zone which means it gives the ability to the to the congress to impose more sanctions on iran and if that happens that is a violation so why did we have this if you will there was an act in the congress legislation called which is supposed the congress imposed that actually in

a way passed the legislation to make sure that the administration always very fires that iran's program is still for peaceful purposes that was for domestic consumption but not that's coming back and hunting the hunting the republicans the g.o.p. leadership and the broader national security stablish one of the united states but all in all there would be normal new negotiations on this front and furthermore europeans other international partners the united states has will in a way lose faith in u.s. commitment to hold international if it will agreements you know and that's exactly where i want to go to go back to my hand in in london i mean there's the credibility issue is multi-dimensional here because the europeans have no interest in walking away from this agreement unlike the united states the europeans would like to be involved in bilateral trade with iran i mean after all of these sanctions decades of sanctions and people would like to go in there and make some money and it's a mutually beneficial agreement here i don't think we'll see but i think that you

know the europeans are not going to bow down to this because they don't see that there is any violation on the side of iran and they have their own interest and maybe for a change the europeans are beginning to realize that better start looking out for themselves go ahead well you're absolutely right peter i think this could be the first. in in u.s. atlantic in the atlantic relationship since suez look at the last time the british and the americans disagreed on something very strongly was the suez crisis back in the one nine hundred fifty s. i mean the u.k. protested against the american intervention in grenada in one thousand nine hundred four but that was a minor issue but on this issue they j c p o a the british prime minister to resign may has come out very strongly and stated that the u.k. is firmly committed to the j. c.p.o. a and that is obviously completely at odds with the position of trump and his ideological advisors so if trump decertified as he's expected to and let's make no bones about it the certification is effectively the end of the deal because this is

the death by a thousand cuts i mean this you know it will begin the process where the deal starts to unravel because congress would ramp up sanctions the rain and retaliate and within a few years the deal will will scupper and so should that happen you would have a very interesting situation where yes i mean there may need the mainland european powers germany and france they would obviously try to salvage something from it but the u.k. would be in a in a very precarious situation because we haven't had this situation for a long time in the u.k. and u.s. policies are so divergent on such an important issue in international relations and i think all these countries are very worried they're worried on the security front because the destruction of the deal would mean greater instability in the middle east but they're also worried on the business commercial front i mean the u.k. for instance has entered into several very lucrative deals with iran including on solar energy quirkiest a british company which is now doing a multi. two hundred million pound deal with iran so that all of these are at stake

so if the. collapses and the sanctions are imposed in earnest then european companies would find it very difficult to do business with iran especially if the americans tend run to say hey you choose between us or the rain exactly you either do this and of course that's no choice you know because who can ignore the u.s. . let me go to break before we go to the break here i mean that the thing is unraveling of the agreement here and i think that's exactly what the people behind this sort of occasion what they want is they want to claim that iran is in violation ok as it unravels and that tensional trap go ahead before we go to the break. i don't mean with all of our will i why i'm not wearing my i don't think it would on gravel i'm not wearing my optimistic last but what i do think will happen is the u.s. will in a way be excluded from from from from the broader if you will agree with iraq i think the europeans i think china i think russia we pull through with this remember this is no longer about the united states it's about a regime connectivity iran is

a quote on a cross center of the eurasian connectivity europeans have a greater stake if you will russians do and the chinese do so they're not going to actually. get away from this deal and ignore it altogether and remember talking about their financial sanctions knew it was a on a journey time gentlemen gentlemen i'd have to go to a hard break here after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the iran nuclear deal states with r.t. . and knowing there's no you know until you tell him to. go in another three they didn't do the.

well you know you really do believe also on. the glad i'm. going to number the u.s. in the u.k. that. my. going to be improved. a little. i'm going to. financial guy. i was on a few. of the friday last summer buying from the future. here's what people have been saying about redacted and. pull along. the only show i

go out of my way to find you know what it is that really packs a punch. yam is the john oliver of r t america is doing the same. apparently better than. i see anybody who had ever heard of love back to the night. president of the world bank very. seriously send us an e-mail. welcome back to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing trump's new iran policy. ok at this point i'd like to pull in a new guest here in williams in new york he's a senior analyst and foreign policy in focus as well as author of untold the real story of the united nations and peace in war and we discuss some of the elements of

how the administration the u.s. administration may walk away from this let's let's kind of change gears and assume it is decertified in the u.s. walks away from this agreement how will that affect the region because i would like to point out is that you here in mainstream media particularly in the cable stations that really the reason the reason behind obama. walking away from obama's deal is number one because obama signed it and number two quote unquote iran's bad behavior in the region ok well that's like a kettle calling a pot black anyway and what are the implications for the for the region if this agreement falls apart go ahead well there for a fine. and in many ways as you just pointed out iran is at the crossroads of a huge region and its actions have mostly. been constructive from an american point of view iran collaborated to cooperated over afghanistan its cooperated in iraq and tried to with strain more the more sectarian approach that could have been

taken and basically they could take over iraq into him politically no time at all but they've been collaborating they've been collaborating over dealing with isis and al-qaeda there as well now all of this can be brought to a halt if the u.s. starts anything like covert hostilities which is the implication here because i have to take umbrage exception you said what is the trump policy and i don't see a policy i don't even see here is reflexive prejudice and pandering pandering to prejudices from israel and from some of the old pentagon types of never forgave me around this is not a policy this is a this is a reflexive gesture of disgust which will have repercussions with all of the neighbors in the area the saudis might or might applaud their we've already seen the us is against europe most of its major allies on this it won't be able to get the united nations justification and even going to the american public saying by

the way we're risking world war three or a collapse of the well the oil markets and the financial system because we think that iran is not following the spirit of this agreement syria the spirit of this very well i know is what it is. behind if i go back to you and me i would just dumbfounded by that phrase you know iran is violating the spirit i mean the this is this is an agreement it's written down in words people signed it they were told those stamps and everything i didn't see any spirit moving around this is nonsense this is not diplomacy but it's not just rare but go. but you are that's right peter but on this issue at least trump is in greater alignment the people in the including telus and mattis and the rest because all of these people they try to conflate the. aspects of iran's regional policy which they find objectionable where

defense video blog trump and to listen and match his diverged is that trump's wants to do away with the deal whereas people like to listen and mathis they want to enforce it more harshly but at the end of the line they all agree that they want to conflate their j c.p.o. a with other issues and the europeans are not buying that and of course the iranians would never buy that and just to go back to what our colleague said earlier i fully agree with him but however i would say that this anti iran and mateen the u.s. goes a lot deeper than people imagine and it's not just limited to new york cons or ideological crazies like trump there are a lot of people in the american establishment in the pentagon in the cia retired serving people there defray nge is at the center they are they are they low they ran for a variety of reasons and it has at this hostility has forty pedigree to it it's a very complex relationship and i think you have even more than complet you're absolutely right hundred percent right but let me go to roost in pittsburgh it's

beyond complex it's it's pathological i mean i was a young man when the hostage crisis happened when the revolution although i remember that and it's now it's got it's two point it's unthinking hatred it's i don't remember why i hate them but i hate them ok that's what it's gotten down to and this panders to the prejudices of the israelis of the saudis and others that they feed off of that they feed it to trump you know when trump is in riyadh when he was in when israel and i'm sure those were the two issues they talked about most with the president is around ok when. it's not in america's interest to be looking for a fight with iran far from it gentlemen this nucular agreement should have been the a milestone to start settling those other issues that should have been a pedestal not the reverse ok i'm sorry go back to pittsburgh. sure you're right

peter but here's the thing i think even if you look at it even israeli hawks i'm talking about who brought came out and said the president should not be decertifying it what does this mean they know the consequences of decertification could be greatly dangerous for the region let's remember a deal gets to certifies if the ripple effects is in tact that means we will have more conflicts and friction points in the. sea of oman in the persian gulf in afghanistan as well as iraq in syria and yemen not just with the united states but also with saudi arabia so all in all the decertification we are opening up a range of bad and very bad options in the middle east and guess who's going to be the victims of it israelis saudis as well so the real practical even hawks foreign policy officials in israel adding side eurabia they also realize that the certification is not in the best short term and long term interest of riyadh and

television you know it's really kind of interesting is that i guess the saying you should be careful what you wish for because you know that the trump administration they've been told you know by the saudis and by the israelis you know this is a bad deal really bad deal and they heard it during the campaign and now trump is going to do it now i think a lot of people are saying what is he really going to go that far because the consequences are quite great i mean i we have to point out to were our viewers here the united states since the second world war is attacked countries that can barely defend itself we got surprised a few times with south korea and vietnam but in all the other cases these countries couldn't fight back because they were weakened through sanctions and what not i don't think it's a very good idea and people in the region know let's not mess with the rand because it could get really nasty for everybody involved no one would be left untouched well i'm thinking i want to stretch it out a bit further think of the implications we have another crisis at the other end of asia in north korea. yes what is the signal being sent to the north koreans can you

talk to or seriously well the answer is coming back because whatever you agree to in a few months down the line we're going to accuse you of violating the spirit and say that kim held his fingers crossed behind his back when he signed the deal and we're going to come back for more what we're saying here is that american credibility the american diplomacy has no credibility whatsoever we are not going to abide by our agreements we temporarily expediently egregious things under pressure from our allies but the very first occasion we're going to walk back on them what lesson is that standing for the nonproliferation in general but you know another thing the allies in the area and well in the middle east if i could say if i could stay with you if we end on this real quick here i mean maybe that's what he meant by the calm before the storm because i question a lot of people around me is that iran and north korea simultaneously i don't know who wanted to jump in there but peter under a question of not nonproliferation you know one of the reasons i think that the

certification is basically the start point of the unraveling of the deal is that there are a lot of people in iran who are also opposed to the j. c.p.o. a and so far the rain in government led by president rouhani and the broader national security community has held these people in check but if american asked us to certifying the deal and takes additional peanut of measures for instance sanctions there will be pushback in tehran and there are a lot of vested interest in iran who want to start the nuclear program in earnest and here to even up to the point of being site iran did not have a nuclear military nuclear program there was no weaponization program but i think if america starts ratcheting up their process then the rain is may go down that line and that does pose a big threat to the whole nonproliferation infrastructure so and that's that's that's worth noting as well. the interesting thing too is there's igniting the revolutionary guards a terrorist organisation that all. so i think that's

a that's never been done with a standing army. united nations member that's a quite incredible thing to even imagine ruby in pittsburgh go ahead. i spent a lot of time in tehran peter i spent a lot of time interacting with people the problem right now is washington is viewing the. revolutionary guard corps as a military unit however i your g.c. is not a military unit beyond a military unit they are in iran if you will ideological establishment there in iran's economic establishment socially stablish men sure there is a lot of problems with them as there are with other other various establishments in iran however they are being viewed by iranians and. as a beacon of stability internally to fight isis because in general so they money who spend most of his time outside of iran is being viewed by iranians by iranians whether the iranian is the left or to right as someone that you know way protected against isis and if he was not if i or g.'s he was not in power the twin attack

that happened in june of two thousand and seventeen we would have seen more of that so what they are saying is they're saying they are the iranians are probably thinking the united states is attacking our very core secure regime and stapley schmidt and i think the iranians are not going to be with this is going to be problematic let me go to eat here given the last word because we always always it was only in the second half of the program i always think that. the u.s. deals with the middle east it doesn't think about the consequences the unintended consequences and i think we're at one of those nexus points right now well very clearly i mean it's it's a pretty it's run by reflexes and prejudices and we have people pointed out the neo cons that a lot of the democratic establishment are equally anti around as well so but i don't think most american people are really ready for another war in the middle east afghan this. iraq syria how many more wars to they want they can cope with the

ones they've got i mean this is you know it's a proxy war at the moment there's yemen coming up i think that once people begin to realize what's behind these obscure foreign names on the people of americans will start to die and we have to come back to the logic of this no matter what you think of the regimes in pyongyang or terror and if you are threatened by the super bad in the world with overwhelming i have mentioned gentlemen on a daily mail run out of time then one day will be a weapon it seems the rest should i rush unlocks i think we all would agree going down the path of war never makes any sense here many thanks to my guests in new york in pittsburgh and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t.c. a next time and remember. los

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the same. apparently better than. the c. people you've never heard of. jack tonight president of the world bank. sent us an email. years of negotiations over iran's nuclear deal could be ruined i mean fierce president could decertify the historic agreement that's despite the global nuclear watchdog as well as u.s. and european officials all saying that tehran has been keeping its side of the blog and. global gaming sensation poky becomes the latest unexpected link to alleged russian meddling in the u.s. election that's according to american media. outrage in the u.k. as an eighty five year old.