hey buddy what's going on is america reps is a chart so slow mixed. my error. is the chart from zero heads and it's going vs gold just going back to you know a few months into this year so yeah it's only twenty seventeen. point takes off gold falls remember when queen hit one mr johnson's death this is called a crocodile if you get sucked into that you get. i need this the rest of the script . i'll give it to you for because i'm. holding the script hostage so i'm taking over there is going to be no turning back at this point in my blood all so remember when the queen first passed the price of gold and that had been something that we had been waiting for for eight and a half years everybody in the bitcoin community has been had been waiting for will

it ever hit the price of gold will they be one for a one and sure enough it hit that unlike september september october probably early september maybe the summer everything goes by so fast it's kind of like we're in parallel dimensions in the big quaint space so it's now obviously like exploded well past that but we now have. people in the bitcoin in the gold space talking about referring to the fact that goal are they one of the lying this is a headline from daily reckoning and by the way you know you and i first when we first met back in two thousand and three daily reckoning was one of the only sort of online sites available at that time one of the go to sites this is way before facebook and twitter and all that sort of stuff we went to the daily reckoning all the time they talked about gold they talked about silver and here's a headline from the daily reckoning how bitcoin killed gold most seasoned traders

concluded that the advent of bitcoin futures what unraveled the insane crypto rally we've witnessed over the past twelve months futures traders would eat the amateurs alive and slam the price lower once shorting bitcoin became an option they said but so far they've been dead wrong so you know they go into how big coin trading has still bothers obviously as soon as the futures launched it was up twenty six percent that day that was down that it was up so they were no less they they weren't able to do what everybody in the financial media like c m b c had said that . you know these these smart money involved in futures would eat. you know all those bitcoin investors alive i said that would not happen you did say that would not have been even though i am well experienced in all things financial and i made a whole career on wall street training futures and options i knew that this would

not be the case. anyway the black hole concept is one where this is good money according to thayer's law if you want to look at economics it's pushing out the bad money you know somebody asked me this morning what does big coin backed by you know that question is all it always comes up what's it back you know my simple answer is backed by all the money that's coming into it you know it's sucking in all the dollars yen drachmas un euros it's all being ruined then it's all being pulled into it it's not going to leave you know once it goes into big going encrypt out the swapping garbage money for good money so you're not going to go back to garbage money so it's backed by all that money is backed by now when at that time people are saying well you know gold is a seven trillion dollar market and it's a bad comparison to just compare the price because bitcoin at that time was only worth you know hundred billion dollars and gold is what seven trillion dollars will sense that was

a statement was first made the whole crypto market now is work over half a trillion dollars it's on its way to be worth a trillion dollars it's going to be worth seven trillion dollars going to be worth more than seven trillion dollars big corn is soft to be worth a trillion dollars so all the free up money in the world all the fractional reserve banking over leveraged garbage we've been warning about in a two thousand and three we said yeah gold is a place to hide from the. apocalypse but then because it came around and starting in two thousand and eleven we said you know this is actually the way it's going to happen this is the financial black hole that's going to suck in all the all the fia money and it's happening you know quite rapidly and so he's right to say that the gold is the first of the major commodity slouched currencies to be disrupted by bitcoin but after gold we'll see other major fianna currencies collapse implode well you remember alan greenspan who was a gold bug and then became head of the central bank of america well he had said

that. gold the u.k. was stupid to give up their gold because in extremis the gold is always used just like what happened to germany during world war two but this is something we're seeing that bitcoin is becoming that because the gold is kind of linked to the u.s. controlled financial system so look at what's going on with that case of turkey versus around and they were using gold because iran was on allowed to use dollars but now i've seen more and more we've seen venezuela announced the petro partly if not mostly to circumvent sanctions. i saw an advisor to vladimir putin being quoted recently that he thought could be a good way to circumvent sanctions as well so the original design for bitcoin was also in order to circumvent the financial system where so much fraud and opaque

happens behind an opaque wall of drea all sorts of derivatives and fraud and then they get bailed out by the central banks remember that there was actually mention the bank bailouts in the u.k. in the run on northern rock so here this gold guy from daily reckoning and that's how you and i met over gold talking about gold and daily reckoning he says big queen trading is totally bonkers and it doesn't look like it's going to come down any time soon it is morphed from an underground tech geek trade to the biggest market menial we've seen in decades big news is pushing stock market stories below the fold despite the market's incredible bull performance this year equities are starting to take a backseat to cryptocurrency and then there's gold big stealings gold's thunder as the holiday season approaches doomsday preppers used to stock up on gold and canned goods now they've cleaned all the gold out of their bug out bags and replaced it

with bitcoin so that. because i just mentioned that all these debates that is a store of value or payment system doesn't matter people are piling in they're getting rid of their gold and they're going long on big coin you know that's right i mean it's turned out to be a fantastic store of value and it's attracting trillions of dollars and the price will explode upwards two hundred thousand and beyond and then we'll start to level off there's a fantastic chart of somebody posted online about the gold versus the reich mark i guess was the german currency during hyperinflation why more republic days and gold want to trillions of dollars an ounce versus the right market. right mark around and the same thing is happening of bitcoin versus the u.s. dollar where you could see big coin trade a million dollars a coin you know it's not necessarily the price a bit coin is moving so much as the the u.s. dollar is experiencing a hyper inflationary collapse like a why more republican having a why more republic moment for planet earth well hyperinflation is a kind of

a political thing you know they always say it like inflation and deflation are monetary events hyperinflation is a political event people lose faith in that system so i know there are some who say like when you see the force of the u.s. government or the chinese government or the abu dhabi government or you know any government going to come in and smash your head if you don't use their currency but if if the people have lost faith in their political and financial system there's nothing you can do you can't beat them over the head enough you cannot the gulag archipelago show that you can't force people to believe in your your cult you know within a few years you know fifty sixty percent of the population will have a million dollars worth of crypto on on a private key on a you know a tres or a some other off line you know storage device and how you going to convince those people to comply with their stupid laws i don't say i'm going to be able to do was

not just that you you couldn't. you can. it's not whether or not you can get them to comply with the law yeah we'll pay their taxes yeah they buy their obamacare yeah i'll do that but can you get them to believe in janet yellen in the next fed chairman in the e.c.b. can you ever get them to believe that that system is sound again can you get them to say ok that's going to be great it doesn't matter you can arrest them you can put them in jail you can find then you can do all that stuff whether or not they'll ever believe you whether they're now they'll be like hey happy with the system i'm going to go out and shell and i'm gonna think about the future and it's all great now they're not going to do that so here we've established that for some time in my block all it's affected your cognitive abilities don't make the camera people laugh ok let me frank i can only so we said it's a story about you it's also the value of bitcoin is that actual network in the ecosystem in the open public ledger it's also attracted just like

early silicon valley which didn't attract the best smartest most innovative people but the thinkers the sort of people who think about putting there's not going to answer is no they're not going to go back they're not going back to janet yellen they're going to back the central banks they will they won't go back to their confidence in the system is collapsing and there is no turning back this is the collapse of the nation state and the central bank and the fractional reserve money system big coin is to banks what the printing press was to the catholic church it collapsed it in many ways this is the end of this era this is the new beginning this is about everyone having autonomy and sovereignty with their own money that can't be confiscated then never it is deflationary wral uganda and like i said the value of the network is also the fact that the smartest minds in the world are attracted to it and they're all working on it and they're coming up with solutions

so. no matter how many how much fun you throw at it you can say all the things wrong with it as soon as you identify the things wrong with it or the flaws that's the thing of an open source network is people like oh the evening standard in the u.k. ran a front page story recently that said that the government needs to warn people that if they lose their crypto currency there are no bailouts for them exactly exactly we don't want bailouts. go to go hole in the ground throw yourself in blow your brains out and cover up the hole that's what we think of you eating standard george osborne the british establishment loys r.b.s. h.s.b.c. and barclays you're all frickin terrorists and you should die. ok we've got to go to break states and much more coming your way.

when you don't. need. to are. dead according to. the most true only ten best. left alone. said. no servant is messy that. you speak french. continue. to. be everybody i'm stephen both. hollywood. proud american first of all i'm just george bush and honored to say this is my buddy max famous financial guru just a little bit different. than your windows up with all the drama happening in our

country and brood have fun every day americans. really start to bridge the gap this is the great american. how does it feel to be a sheriff the greatest job in the world it's as close to being a king as any job there is what business model helps to run a prison now we just do it all like i said you'll be video visitation i don't know what comes in anymore we don't have to serve them anymore it's defective this will be on. that loan they don't give a damn if you didn't charge on that they're actually paying us to put it back and. the louisiana incarceration rate is twice as high as the u.s.n.

breach what secret is behind such success. welcome back to the kaiser report imax guys are time now to turn to jim rickards prolific author and he's also the chief global strategist at merrill. jim welcome back thank you max all right mary glom what is. the company i started with some partners a year ago we specialize in predictive analytics and capital markets it's actually the continuation of project prophecy which i worked on at the cia pfizer privacy if you were down here in studio very close to the world the former site of the twin towers there was insider trading in advance of the nine eleven attack after the attack the cia said well it was going to be another spectacular attack would have been started trading again could you identify it could you trace it to the source

code if i swore to break down the door and stop the attack that was project prophecy i was one of the code managers on that and basically we developed a project about political system inside the cia that worked extremely well all that's happened now is taking that technology was some partners with some investors we're now doing private version of that to do predictive analytics to capital markets however we've go well beyond what we did of the cia as you know technology is advanced science has advanced so we've really got third wave artificial intelligence and some other inputs to that to come up with a very robust system ok now remember poindexter let's think john poindexter will jump points that oh gosh yeah he came after nine eleven like i think it was he came up with. mark it was a call well there was to be a total information awareness the right project but they wanted a they wanted a futures market basically a geo political futures market so you could bet on whether the time yasser arafat was going to be assassinated are what the whole thing was modeled on my hollywood

stock exchange you know that i saw my second i did not know is based on that technology i do know that this is sort of the call the wisdom of crowds if you get enough people making enough that it's. and that was the word marla better production than you know an analyst sitting in a cube about how now that this time when they launched it they there was a lot of pushback because they said hey you know there's a conflict there because terrorists can bet on the terror act and then they go out and commit the act and they cash it well that was one of the objections but specifically one of the contracts was with yasser arafat be assassinated the pushback came from then senator hillary clinton who the new york senator at the time who course was a good friend of arafat so there were there was that was shut down but we were we were king that was actually darpa the defense. project research arm but we were doing it inside the cia as we did we sort of dodge this bill is a process that really you know prediction markets such as the years i think predictive analytics where you're looking at the data and you are using algorithms

and you are sorting through the data to try to pick up on patterns and and this is all internal it's not out there people are not buying and selling protection contracts we're not running production market run appear to violence but the science is true and we do on the there's a lot there's less there than meets the eye with the wisdom of crowds wisdom of crowds is really good if you want to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar the average of a thousand people with no matter how to go under stand will actually be pretty good guess the weight of the car like an old english fare that stuff works good but the more complex the problem the less the wisdom of crowds works and for example even in markets where you have a lot of to spatial so let's go back to february twenty seventh two thousand and seventeen earlier this year the market was giving a thirty percent chance of a fed rate rate hike in march the fed actually did hike rates in march it got two hundred percent the day before the meeting but there's an example where the market was way off and the cicadas mean markets are invaluable but there's a lot more to we use. base that we use their complexity theory behavioral psychology history and other branches of science to come up with our forecasts ok

so you say this has now crossed your work i believe it was in death of the dollar or the chapter one the death of money chad was on iraq. ok not the nine eleven you were observing as well as your colleagues in the intelligence community activity in the financial markets that telegraphed that something was coming we were not observing it in real time it was there that information was there and i did run into people later who saw that the cia was not observing that at the time but after the fact you can look back it was very obvious the the it was done through a by a put option usually insider trading is done in the options market because there's a lot more leverage with the first place the i.c.c. looks by the way so that on two trading days before nine eleven buying puts american airlines two hundred eighty six times the average believe i'm so sick i order a big mac every day and then when there were two hundred eighty six big macs you know something's up i talked to john martorano just after the after the fact if you

looked at the data and he said oh my gosh some some of this knowledge was circulating ahead of the of a not just me and not just the agency but there were academics i talked to john moe who was the special jumbo hearns. new york stock exchange specialist for made markets an american you know he was the market maker in those two studies that like i said i've never seen more blatant sort of trading when a space shuttle or a special challenger blew up more if i call the contractor for the booster rocket puts in this case skyrocketed sure because the thing just blew up here you are observing the event as if something a blown up before it blew up in the post event you're looking back i seen that man and so now. markets are very sensitive to this data and how much of the predictive analytics that you are incorporating in this service is taken from market data well we start with market data and that's the many many example by the way you have to separate sort of predict about linux on the one hand and like law

enforcement looking for inside of traders and all that but this is sort of trading all the time in the head of you know i mean a announcements that's quite common you can always see that you can see it before the fact definitely see the. after the fact but we see in that we see market data but we're also using complexity theory which says that in any system the scale of the system scaling metrics are very important in the density function the interconnectedness that's a leading indicator of potential collapse or you know they are ok so what's the ratio between market data and non market data roughly well it's hard to say it depends on the particular no see we take all this so we use behavioral psychology that says that's very well established here mr x. biases you know people would rather take three you know three dollars as a sure thing instead of three dollars twenty cents expected value if there's a twenty percent chance of loss in your risk aversion anchoring always pay robust has been very well known you can incorporate that we use history a lot of the what wall street does these correlations are regressions there while limitations on that number one you'll never see the weird avail never see a recession and never see a so-called black swan you never see

a catastrophic event you'll never see that the correlations you always predict more the same you get random outcomes which is not true things are path dependent number one there were two the time series are often too short like one hundred five hundred or even use fifteen hundred year time series go back to the collapse of bronze a civilization the collapse of the roman empire you know we're about to for another civilizational collapse you don't predict that tomorrow morning but there's the kind of time series that are more meaningful my view so we use history we use bayes rule which is a statistical method that involves just starting with a hypothesis using the best idea you can that we use an intelligence community all the time that was used to that movie imitation game where alan turing cracked the enigma code that was using these rules where we use all that but the thing is you have to take all of that and combine it what we call a fuzzy cognitive network just a neural network with nodes each node might represent a different one of the disciplines i mentioned one might be in a storage room that has some weight because something happen before one might be

a basie and nobody gains weight or loses weight based on updating now you have to feed those notes to do that we've teamed with i.b.m. the idea lab and watson watson can read you know two hundred. and twitter feeds simultaneously i might look at ten but you know two hundred million so plain language ability in eight languages so now we really go way beyond this is really a three way of artificial intelligence as i described ok so i was always in these situations you have a problem i guess you could call it of slippage. for example are but arbitrage opportunities open up in the market sure and then everyone jumps in on those arbitrage opportunities you know by the spread between t. bills and one market versus another market in the arb's come in and it shrinks down to zero in this type of work and i know having and created the hollywood stock exchange and invented the predicting prediction market industry thank you. have a problem and this happens in markets all the time where you are the intelligence that you think you are gleaning as far as a predictive intelligence starts to get discounted by the fact that you're looking

at the intelligence level of the heisenberg effect if you actually start to see it start to disappear. phenomenon and it doesn't mitigate the risk of a black swan these black swans are there because they are black swans do you feel comfortable that your work to what degree is a let's say a leap forward in generating do you know yet if you have a track record on the side what was the worst what's the status of that when we do we do which are the first two are we predicted that we said the u.k. would vote to leave the european union that was a completely out of consensus view we predicted trump selection i was on television australia new york europe before the election saying trump was going to win so we actually we predicted a fed rate hike in less march a time when the market was giving a thirty percent probability which is true from december to late february we were an eighty percent probability now the market caught up in the last two weeks is there a problem with we have a good data apartheid and what i mean is you've got access to the data you're

making predictions you can cash in on those predictions not that that's your point and the reason you're doing it we don't trade when. you know of any. bald heads funds to pay big money to the intelligence committee they've got cia guys on their payroll so suddenly they access to data it gives them an edge now they're profiting from this data and the average joe on the street is not profiting from this data what's your thought about well first of all you're absolutely right about that and this one things i said when i when i got to the cia were talking about this is this was all new the cia had done this one guy they put in charge of this because he traded options like in his spare time he was a math whiz and then just trade off his first person account he said we believe the only guy in the agency do that is if you're in charge they didn't have capital markets expertise capital markets were not part of the battle space prior to nine eleven they are now but they were at the time so when i give the cia a lot of credit they know what they don't know and they're very good outreach and i was not the only one recruiter there were many who were invited into this project

so we kind of build from the ground up but one of things i said and i said guys hedge funds do this all the time we're not trying to do anything the hedge funds don't already do we're just doing it for different reasons we're not trying to spot insider trading had an m. and a announcement we're trying to spot insider trading have a terrorist attack but the way you do it the math and the data inputs are the same number one number two source data piece they're not cheap but you know for twenty five thousand dollars you can get real time prices from chicago mercantile exchange new york stock exchange so all that information is available but never the algorithms at all it appears science and engineering you have to know legions of these guys you've got to know that you know they're expensive they are expensive you have to build it yourself so there is there is a little bit of that but this is it's not in a given example you can rent sellers for sellers in space or private you can rent a space you can rent the use of them there were people they fall in cracker barrel nobody walks to a cracker barrel they're all by the highways they drive to a cracker vine oh yes they were using the satellites to spot how many cars were in the parking lot they have some data on the average cell per car average number of people per car and they use that to predict the on as

a cracker and that's that's completely legal it's inside information but it's few there to put to be guilty of trading in sanford mentions a two part test. espied material nonpublic information but you also have to be quite breach of a fiduciary duty if you do it yourself you have been breached and he duty it's your information you can steal from yourself so that's completely legal insider trading right on wall street ways to say it's inside not inside well in from no one likes the word insider but the fact is if you if you invent it yourself you're not stealing it so it's legal but you have to do those funds have an edge over everything of us of course they do and that's that's that's just the way it was usually and didn't get past the first question. keep you over for a segment that's ok that's right. and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy herbert like to thank our guest jim rickards prolific author and data guy if you want to reach us on twitter it's

kaiser report and so next time. you know the palestinians have used the united nations as a weapon of war against the future of peace both for palestinians and israelis the united nations general assembly has passed more resolutions against the democratic state of israel that it has against north korea and iran and syria combined so that you know it is a bubbling cauldron of hatred and anti-democracy. all see we have a great we need to strengthen the free flow. of an election to keep it

to the back. in one thousand nine hundred forty four for the european championships at the very last moment no one. believed in us but we won and i'm hoping to bring some of that waiting spirit to the r.c.c. . recently i've had a lot of practice so i can guarantee you that peter schmeichel will be on the best since my last will come on that story throws the. thousand no joke i was only kidding here i called. strife. left left left more or less ok stuff that's really good. across europe municipalities are taking their water supply back from private companies to me to people this is what simple song alone even some company gets elsewhere they invite private companies to take over the utilities anybody tell us the. allowed

for miss you guys you got to buy them the going to go. buy been pieces of us to quote them out put it up some more you know until the lift bill brought up locals are ready to stand up for the basic human right of access to water it's about water but it's also over much more the water it's about to hurt and the redistribution of our west birth. date downwards the one or.

two. hundreds of millions of dollars of even billions of dollars and then they voted against this war we're watching those approach the u.n. general assembly is holding an emergency session on donald trump's decision to recognize jerusalem as israel's capital as the us president and ambassador both threaten u.n. members to vote against america. a new report claims ten times more iraqi civilians may have been killed in the campaign to liberate mosul from islamic state and previously sources. and a three year old russian girl is returned home after being taken to iraq by her parents when they joined islamic state.