a lot of the inflation that investors were happy to have manifest itself in asset markets like stocks and bonds and real estate i think a lot of that inflation is now going to finally rear its head in places where a lot of investors aren't going to be happy especially central banks when they start to see their inflation handywork showing up you know in producer prices and consumer prices that's going to be a lot of problems for investors in the banks yeah although we did have some people on recently peter and talking about how they're pretty bullish on the bond markets going forward what are your specific thoughts on bonds. you have a major bubble worldwide in bonds and obviously that bubbles been inflating for many years and so you know the graveyards are littered with corpses of people who have tried to short that bubble and i you know i couldn't tell you that it's

impossible for the bubble to get bigger i mean it certainly is possible but i wouldn't want to be betting on it at this stage and you know betting against it i know it hasn't been a winning bet but you know at some point that that's going to pay off big time and i have a feeling that it's not too far off and you know it's not growth that's going to be pricking the bond market bubble it's going to be inflation and central banks being forced to raise interest rates despite the fact that in many countries simply the united states the economic growth won't be there but the inflation will absolutely but then thank you for that on bonds us real quick so back to commodities let's talk about oil both. texas intermediate and brant still over sixty bucks there's about a six dollars spread between the two what do you think's going on now and what he thinks going to happen the future in oil. you know i think oil prices are going higher i mean we've broken through some key levels i think once we get really in

west texas i think once we get above sixty three maybe above seventy or so and brant i think we're going to have another major move up maybe twenty bucks very quickly you know what really drove the price of oil down was not you know massive production coming from the bach in the united states you know was it hydraulic fracking that really did it it was the huge move up in the u.s. dollar in twenty fourteen or twenty fifteen that's what broke the back of the crude oil market and i think dollar weakness renu dollar weakness is going to be what's going to send crude prices ultimately to new highs i mean the high for crude was up around one forty to one fifty and i think before this bull market ends we will take that high out because it is going to be a function of the dollar and last year was the first year in five that the dollar declined it was the biggest decline for the dollar in fourteen years it was the

biggest decline against the chinese yuan in nine years and i think the wind could be a big key to the price of oil going forward i think the u.s. dollar could hit an all time record low against the you won in two thousand and eighteen and i think that will drive a tremendous demand for commodities in china including for oil peter i want to start a circle back in case i miss something or make sure i got it right did you say you thought oil could could break new records. well not next year but i think ultimately we're going to make new all time record highs above one if oil because i expect new yes because i expect new all time lows in the dollar so if you go back to the dollar index for example the low for the dollar index in two thousand and eight when oil was above one forty was about seventy right now the dollar index is about ninety two you know i think the dollar at this is going to take out seventy i think we're going to go below sixty and i think when that happens you can easily

see the price of oil in u.s. dollars at a new all time record high all right thank you for that would be that would be really interesting if we get there even if it's not in the next year or so that that high mark from two thousand and eight ok let's get to a couple others i know you love talking about gold we love hearing about it so last time we spoke i think gold was still below thirteen hundred but above thirteen hundred what say you about where we're gone. well we're going higher i mean we're about thirteen twenty right now but you know gold prices are ridiculously low as far as i'm concerned is every currency you know gold had a decent year last year against the dollar it was up i don't know twelve thirteen percent but it was actually down about a percent in terms of the euro and if it were a choice between gold in the euro i'd much rather own gold i think gold has a long way to go in terms of just about every currency on the planet i'm surprised that the prices are still so low but you know what they say about

a gift horse so i go i advise that people be buying gold be buy and silver and if you're lucky enough or you are foolish enough or smart enough as the case may be to a bought a bunch of crypto currencies before the bottom drops out of that market take those profits and use of the buy some real money some gold don't don't don't just hold on to this digital fool's gold you never disappoint now before we go we've only got about thirty seconds peter but you know we've had that cold snap that continues actually and i know it's impacted citrus what are we seeing on some of the commodities over there in particular orange juice eccentric at at the intercontinental exchange in new york. yeah you know i don't watch it that closely i know that cold weather in the south is usually particularly bad for you know an artist use harbison i think you know the growers down there already got clobbered though from hurricane earl. so you know i don't know how much worse it's going to

be where you're freezing what didn't get destroyed in the hurricane but personally i'm headed down to puerto rico tomorrow and i'll be there through may so at least i'm finally getting out of the cold weather here in new england and you know it's i think i've overstay my welcome up here well you have not always a dollar go you have not overstay your welcome with us a boom bust here we thank you so much for joining us maybe you'll give us a call even from puerto rico and report on how things go down there you have all the next time we do an interview i will be in my puerto rico studio so we will have to set up a news line or something peter schiff c.e.o. of europe a civic capital thanks so much for joining us as always my pleasure. now time for a quick break but stick around because when we return after the break we'll talk about the looming government shutdown showdown and about how it actually costs taxpayers money possible get an update on the current state of play with steve

walford which here are the numbers at the closing bell and by the way apple stock down we talked about apple at top of the show down nearly half a percent so far here are the numbers. this manufacture consent to stick to the public will. when the ruling closest to protect themselves. with the famous merry go round. we can

all middle of the room see. the real news room. in two thousand and sixteen the panama papers show the world with a tax haven the secrets to shrilling and united states dollars passed through most . in the amount of time that we've been in the panama papers exposure that's what it shows a lot of money it really is. journalism it's a fact of journalism looking at things that people want to keep secret and asking why would they want to keep these things secret. millions of. documents were examined. all the people we basically have tried to get an advantage out of this thought it was just paper. and probably other politician which was the other politician the media were quick to find targets such

as the kings of morocco and saudi arabia the president of argentina several prime ministers. and russian president vladimir putin of course. that tied so i have sued so many newspapers for defamation some things don't just happen by chance it was very striking there were no more americans to go especially a lot of people from the brics countries specially brazil russia and china that this special project reveals what was missed in the media coverage. of the panama chronicles. you know when you don't. see the teachers who are. not through only ten. minutes. left alone. said.

claiming to know german to let. you speak french. most of. the. consumer debt in the united kingdom is on the rise and it may be cause for concern according to reap. or doubt by regulators at the bank of england and the u.k.'s financial conduct authority the f.c.a. the report shows that it's no longer the risky subprime mortgages that we had back in the day that are driving the increased consumer debt but cheaper car finance

deals and even interest free credit cards some in the us have also raised concerns about auto loans becoming a bubble for the last several years in fact some people have said this in the u.k. while the increased debt has supported growth in the auto sector some regulators are now concerned that the sudden popularity surge in these two areas auto loans and interest free credit cards could cause issues further down the line it's never free by the way usually these low interest rates are at zero interest rates will balloon after a trial period the u.k. regulatory analysis also found that borrowers are more likely now to remain in debt longer than they were in the past will keep an eye on this area. the trump administration and congressional leaders are scrambling to foreclose the prospect of or government shutdown they must take action by january nineteenth that's a week from friday at midnight to keep the federal government open but last year

president trump suggested on twitter that quote our country needs a good government shutdown while there are many good reasons to be mad at the government especially congress and i guess the white house right now let's be clear about the economic effects of a government shutdown it does not save money in fact it actually cost us all the money if the government shuts down here's why the government doesn't keep all the money they would have paid to all the public employees who are scheduled to work they don't take vacation days instead we still pay roughly one point three million essential workers they call them to stay on the job air traffic controllers even former regulators like me to watch markets. and their paychecks are merely delayed until the normal operations resume and while there's another eight hundred thousand federal employees that have no guarantee of getting paid for the days they were not allowed to work historically congress has compensated those people this was the

case following the last major government shutdown in twenty thirteen in fact the council of economic advisors estimated that the shutdown resulted in a net loss of one hundred twenty thousand private sector jobs last month s. and p. global analyst estimated that we could suffer a similar lost in jobs from the government shutdown and a loss could be as high as six point five billion dollars per week six point five billion per week the office of management budget estimates that of the last three government shutdowns they cost the federal government four point two billion dollars the economic math on this is clear despite what the president tweeted there is no good government shutdown and that is if you care about jobs growth or fairness there is that fairness there are also costs that are harder to quantify in terms of the fabric of our national life and business museums on the national mall

and other places national parks across the countries that are closed and passport and visa services become unavailable soon after other actions like mortgage services involving the i.r.s. and federal home loan association and permits and requests for federal agencies plus there are various approval for things like lifesaving drugs approved by the f.d.a. they can be delayed so really this could impact people's lives if they don't get these new drugs out and grants and loans and loan guarantees are also further impacted by being held up all of that critical to our nation's economic growth. despite the fact that there is a republican president and majorities in both the u.s. house of representatives and the u.s. senate the government still remains unfunded for the remainder of twenty eight

eighteen the fiscal year which actually began on october first of last year that funding only runs through january nineteenth at midnight so a possibility of a government shutdown looms large in recent days there have been meetings between congressional leaders and white house officials well what are the key issues in the shutdown showdown let's ask the intrepid steve wallace byrd conservative t.v. and radio host steve thanks for being here thanks for coming back it seems like deja vu all over again what do you think's going to happen this time around. well i hope they don't kick the can down the road for another temporary fix i hope you know they they agree to something long term but it's going to be interesting to see if the democrats are really willing to go to the mat over dhaka of course that protects the you know they're not kids anymore but people who were brought here as children with parents who are illegal and barack obama unilaterally gave them

protection bypassing congress after four years saying he couldn't do it he did it and donald trump has undone it if you will and you know will they marry this to the budget well they have to be a deal in place with doc of the four democrats in the senate vote for a budget donald trump has said we have until march to address this the democrats are saying we want to address now it's going to be interesting to see how it works out the political deal between doc which you know people also know that people call it the dreamers that's those people that steve referred to that the trumpet ministration essentially kicked that can down the road until march that they could stay in the country until march although there are some recent news reports that people are being picked up now by immigration so i don't i we haven't done that reporting here but that's what i read earlier today but it seems that the deal could potentially be between the dreamers and the funding for the president's

infamous border wall between the u.s. and and mexico does that sound like a match made in heaven or someplace lower than that well of course donald trump has reiterated in recent days that if for any deal to be done on dhaka it will have to include a physical border wall which is what he campaigned on and ran on in promise it will also have to include. the end of chain migration where relatives of immigrants could come to this country and that infamous draft lottery. where recently but one of the terrorist acts that were committed here in new york was the participate in they a perpetrator of that act came here because he was that draft lottery so donald trump wants to end chain migration and the draft lottery of build the wall and that's that's what the show that is going to be democrats want nothing to do with the wall but again that's what donald trump got elected on so it's going to be interesting to see how far the democrats are willing to go to stick to their principles right i

mean you know and you know look who knows that you're right he got elected that was a key campaign promise on on the wall but i know a lot of people think that you know you build a fourteen foot wall the result will be wal-mart will sell out of sixteen foot ladders but who knows what'll happen here's what we do know the border wall despite what the president said will cost some money we're not going to get mexico to pay for it at least appears if you take the word of the mexican president so the estimates sort of run all over the place and we've stopped about this in the past but it looks like it's going to be about eighteen billion dollars if you take the one point five trillion dollars sort of that that the hole in the in the deficit from the tax bill that just passed in late december and then you add another eighteen billion and that's over ten i think ten years you know is that have we already shot our you know wad even though it's

a nonexistent why we're just borrowing this money from the chinese and others but we all respect the money on this thing do we read and have the money to fund a border wall. well i would think if you appalled americans and told them that we could enhance our security and the integrity of our borders for one point eight billion dollars a year for ten years they would say they might they might think that's a lot of money but you know better than i that's nothing that sets the bucket that that that that you know that's not a lot of money in the scheme of things so i don't know that you could put a price on security i don't know that americans have ever been willing to put a price on security and i think that you know if you explained to them what kind of percentage of the entire budget we're talking about i'm sure that financially speaking they would say go for it. i would make a partisan quip that you sound like a democrat with eighteen billion being nothing but the truth is that you're exactly

right in the scheme of the whole budget steve it it's not quite penciled but it is not significant when you look at the entire federal gun budget and that's what we're talking about and that leads us to one other issue steve and that is there was a deal a budget deal between congress which was headed by the republicans as people know when president obama was in charge least for some of those years but at the end of the deal and this was a set up that there would be parity between non-defense spending and defense spending on the increases on the increases now there are some that say well that was that was then this is now we have the majorities do you think that's a deal they're going to stick with or not. now again that's another key issue i'm glad you brought it up that's another key issue in this budget fight because the republicans and led by donald trump and a lot of hawks in the in the house and senate want an increase in defense spending that's above the rate of domestic spending and i think that that's going to be

another issue in this day and age with problems all over the world i guess and you know even though you called the sounding like a democrat which i will forgive you for i can't imagine that the american public would be on the side of the democrats saying no no no we can't spend more on defense in relation to domestic programs the world's blowing up around us and if donald trump again read on that and i think building up the military is something that america the american public would say yeah you know we've got to do that so and mcconnell by the way wave the white flag with obama in those budget talks year after year so i don't put much credence in what he did. you know and i love it when we agree and we happen to agree i think that's a deal that dead last question before we go steve you are so good on prognosticating on the tax bill and other things but on the tax bill what's your guess on what's going to happen on or probably the evening of january nineteenth in

the house and senate with regard to this budget deal i don't think that even chuck schumer and nancy pelosi believe they have a winning issue with doc a look they they stuck it basically to the dock of people. when they when they were agreed to this short term solution the dhaka people the immigration people were outraged they said you deserted us and they didn't bat an eye so i think they will you know look for some kind of march solution and pass this with some kind of promise for a vote blah blah blah i think we will get a deal by the nineteenth and it'll be a long term deal super thank you so much the pre-shared steve malzberg t.v. and radio commentator take care. and there is one other point on the budget that might be interesting for people and that is that over the weekend president trump met with republican congressional leaders at camp david now they don't have any anything planned to go forward that they announced at least but

perhaps there is some hope that this shutdown will be averted but we'll stay tuned and keep following it so frauds and scams continue at a record pace not only in the u.s. but around the world in fact one reputable watchdog his cock insurance has reported that cybercrime cost the global economy roughly four hundred fifty billion dollars a year that said one fraudster is now off the streets. if you have an e-mail you've probably received a request from a nigerian prince who for a seemingly meagre sum will share his millions of dollars from a secret inheritance you just need to provide the prince with your banking account information and he will wire you the millions and then cut you in on this really cool deal well the fellow responsible for those e-mails has been caught in of all places slidell louisiana his name michael knew these sixty seven years old and now

faces two hundred sixty nine counts of wire fraud and money laundering following an eighteen month investigation authorities say he took money from folks all across the united states i hope you were one of them i wrote a book about these fraudsters ponza monium how scam artists are ripping off america and in it i detail what i termed red flags of fraud a key red flag is never provide any personal information specifically your banking information and even if you know the person seeking your information be really careful a common request involves someone you supposedly know e-mailing you that they are out of the country have been mugged and their passport and wallet were stolen oh my gosh now they just need a loan from you until they get back home if you ever receive one of these the alarm bells should go off pick up the phone and call them in person it's most likely

a scam just be super discerning before you provide personal information particularly banking information to anyone and especially careful when it involved money for and how at least one fraudster the infamous nigerian prince is behind bars and finally a little about our show tomorrow coming up our reporter actually ashley banks is going to be covering the economics of news from the newseum here. in washington d.c. thanks for watching be sure to catch boom bust on you tube youtube dot com slash boom bust r.t. catch you next time. power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely and they fell of the metro over their heads up saudi arabia these days is as corrupt as the day is long and

he's just stealing money from folks and with us right to be had it but america is like that's reform meanwhile ok already there actually are in the process of reform but that somehow evil. the two thousand and eight economic crisis turns some countries into paid these are the countries with weaker economies that needed austerity policies if you are in a situation of flow bloat even the recession austerity is a very bad idea it doesn't work and it makes millions of people very unhappy those who are unemployed see their wages decline almost a decade how good are the results she saw in a fifteen year old piece of her by the people gathered in which to watch the world get people to see what i. believe will be she still clematis i mean to for legal. challenge must be more than this she did not was always think they see

something and not get it. while the same mission is still in place to one of the consequences to weaken bluebirds smooth the smooth will first one of those loosely truthy consider is the consequences are actually quite acceptable to the decision making. here's what people have been saying about rejected in that if you understood. it's full on author of the only show i go out of my way to launch a lot of the really packed a punch. yeah it's the john oliver of our three americas do the same we are apparently better than booth at a c. paper you never heard of love back to the night not the president of the world bank though paid under the rug many seriously sent us an e-mail. in the heart of the swiss alps this is

a place probably more secretive than the pentagon more mysterious than the cia and better guarded than for knox swiss customs are here permanently all the site is controlled by them and they impose the opening times so it was it was a duty from his office the procedures in place of the strictest in all europe must to pieces by artists like pecan so and modigliani i can't boards and sold inside this warehouse that's where the report comes in it covers up deals which are naturally discreet commercially discreet step but also discreet because they concern fraud of some of those paintings are linked to dark secrets nobody knows how many of these secrets a kept inside the geneva freeport system you'll never obtain an inventory of all the works in the freeport who knows how many there are three hundred three thousand three hundred thousand is it a matter of confidentiality only is it the world's black box of the art business.

unfortunately it appears that once people learn that you've reported in a sexual assault or may have been involved in an incident that they become scared of you instead of being scared of the perpetrator. leave. thank you. thank you thank you thank you i.

launched a state of the art space x. rocket carrying a classified u.s. government satellite leads to speculation about whether it made it into space but none of the usual information released. also this hour the b.b.c. finds itself the center of its own storm off to some of its journalists accuse the company of censorship. but the protests we've crossed. a little attention with the focus for mainly on anti government demonstrations in iran.