with chancellor angela merkel's party however the agreement could leave the n.t. migrant party alternative for germany as the main opposition force in the country as peter oliver explains or this was the result that martin schultz wanted it was the result he campaigned for but it was never visibly very worried martin schulz waiting for those results that come in he gave a speech just before the ballots were cast he said that there were only two options it was either go into coalition with angela merkel's conservative bloc or they'd have to be another election and he was very clear on which one he prefer that you don't you know you everyone should realise the question is coalition talks for you elections my take on this is very clear i don't think you elections are the right way for us but what would a coalition do for the bullets there how would the vote the stagg look if a new grand coalition can be formed well what it would do is it would meet at the

social democrats were no longer the largest opposition party that would go to the new kids on the block alternative for germany they would be the largest opposition party they would also get all of the or perks and traditions that come along with that including being the chair of the bundestag budget committee all new ground for the right leaning and t. establishment party a party in fact in which martin schultz and many other senior members of the social democrats have decried as racist before the election in september and said that they shouldn't be taking up seats within the bundestag well in an attempt to try and hang on to power for himself he may well catapult them up into the position of being germany's largest opposition. peter all of the reporting while geo political analysts are in iraq first says explain why the f.t. has gained so much support. i would say that union parties are all the

c.d.u. look as left of the conservative positions of the past they have turned somewhat roughly speaking into an ass. and the ass b.d. has lost much of its political standing because many of the topics were also covered by the c.d.u. so the eight after just came in to fill in. the blank space that. has left. well one of the stumbling blocks during the coalition talks has been migration policy with a number of new approaches being tried to ease the crisis the sensitive court versus taken matters into his own hands and banned newcomers altogether the move is in response to several recent incidents last week for example a teenager was stabbed by two syrians several days before that an elderly german couple were attacked by a group of refugees however they can in our seas have also been blamed for violence

at illegal rallies too with reports they attacked migrants we spoke to people in ca person here is what they said. the states they make it look like asylum seekers or whoever attacked the germans but there were also cases where it happened the other way round for example three afghans were beaten up by a group of germans on new year's eve over the next few days nobody reported on it only later thanks to the efforts of an activist group it was made public. because it's not a solution to the problem not accepting any more migrants doesn't solve the problem we have here and cutpurse in any case people don't feel as safe as they used to there is some insecurity here. i think there is a need for action in the city however the way the thordis are dealing with this situation might belittle bit questionable probably they could have looked into this case more deeply to see whether there are other options. well earlier three other communities in the region of lower saxony band migrants mentoring as well my

colleague neil harvey discussed this with the alternative in germany party spokes person. the only been a handful of attacks by migrants in. as well as some on migrants themselves isn't a ban excessive well not to the victims those violent attacks occurs and. there were about three thousand migrants who entered the caucus and mostly they're young males from north africa and syria bringing with them a completely different culture of. conflict resolution. there's a breaking point for even the most tolerant of communities and apparently this breaking point has been reached that's your opinion locals certainly aren't all in support of this ban nobody's saying that any violence is acceptable but some people suggesting you know maybe more to this than meets the eye maybe six of one half a dozen of the other and that perhaps more options should be explored is that not

a good idea. well i'm afraid. a little to no time left to explore other options there's a big tension building up in many communities and cities are simply fed up the german treasury has admitted in the last year alone more than twenty two billion euros were needed to accommodate these one point five million migrants and this is of caught a large sum of money to try to explain this to millions of germans who are living on the breadline having two jobs and trying very desperately to make ends meet you're watching at international still had this morning a siege in afghanistan has left dozens of people dead including foreign is we'll have the details on a story present this to just after the break. here's

what people have been saying about rejected in the us actually pull on. the only show i go out of my way to. the really packed the park. is the john oliver of our two year marriage is good to see we are apparently better than to see people you've never heard of love back to the night i broke the world bank very. seriously send us an e-mail.

welcome back. violence intensified in afghanistan base weekend where more than thirty people are feared dead in an overnight siege at a hotel in the capital of kabul that's according to reports citing security officials authorities do say those killed include a high ranking afghan diplomat and fourteen foreign nationals most of them employees the taliban claims it was behind the assault.

now the dutch city of groningen is home to one of europe's richest gas fields but locals are concerned about the environmental impact they do blame corporations for numerous earthquakes in the area the latest coming within the last fortnight on friday around ten thousand people marched against gas drilling in the area the process to say the problem has not been taken seriously enough with quakes continuing to damage local infrastructure meanwhile the strongest earthquake in five years hit the netherlands and january eighth reaching three point four in magnitude. it was often up and you know we have earthquake damage my home is damaged but in comparison with others it isn't that bad my house isn't being held

up with braces but i am worried i think it has to do with money and the lack of having good people who know how to deal with processing claims. this problem goes back many years the poor into that people have been waiting too long to receive compensation for the damages that have been caused because and they have been waiting too long for the drilling to stop it needs to happen now and again look just makes me sick that ever think it's breaking and that no one is taking direct action. well the university of corn again has directly connected to drilling in the northern gas fields to the earthquakes specialists are also concerned about laser sandstone in the region which they say could lead to yet more tremors a solution to the problem hasn't been found for decades already this map shows the number of earthquakes that have hit the region you can see they have been occurring in those northern gas fields where the fault lines are concentrated around an area where sixty thousand people currently live. the dutch economy minister says if the

government had taken the problem more seriously production could have been cut in half since twenty thirteen activists though still say these measures won't be sufficient we're not so this fight with a decision government. took. not enough earthquakes keep going on well when they are extract the gas out of the ground as they do now so it has to go to zero they are pumping gas out of our soil for decades and. in the beginning there were also earthquakes but they just denied it it's not an earthquake it's an airplane going going boom or it's something else but the last years it's obvious that there are real earthquakes that's what worries us very much putting gas out of all so it's easy money. the government

owns a lot of it and also exxon mobil and sure a lot. we are like a modern colony these those and we don't like that that all so it has to stop. families in the west african country of mali are still searching for answers over a french airstrike that killed eleven million soldiers who were being held hostage it's been more than two months since the strike r.t. spoken to some of the relatives demanding the truth. my nephew was taken prisoner during the attack on the nam palace security post there were people that people wounded and people missing. i ask for anyone who can help us get out of here don't leave us in this place you saw the french intervened to destroy

a jihadi camp during this intervention eleven million soldiers lost their lives. from france at the time of the operations there were no hostages. the operations are considered seris training camp and at no time was the presence of the soldiers established. all the production over there were eleven hostages found on this site and all of them died during this operation from images that we received we recognized five of our soldiers that were taken hostage. obama that night one day they tell us that the hostages were there during the bombing and the next day they tell us otherwise we're waiting to receive news regarding our son. and just to give you a bit more context here france got involved in the mali and conflict backed into

a back in two thousand and fourteen after isn't this militants isn't this militants parts of the country around four thousand french troops are involved in a ninety terror operation that is still ongoing there and just a week ago u.k. agreed to bolster the campaign with its helicopters. finally doing the household chores isn't exactly everybody's idea of fun mine included although one russian cosmonaut does beg to differ at these pictures that have been sent recently from the international space station. so the more fundamental idea hoovering that's how the news is looking so far more

for me about how often i. join me every thursday on the alex i'm unsure when i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you then. global war hawks sell you on the idea that dropping bombs brings police to the chicken hawks forcing you to fight the battles on. the new socks for the tell you that so be gossip a couple of us felt a little bit. of advertising tell you on the whole and on and lets you buy your products. all the hawks that we along with all the one. prescribe medication is widespread on the u.s.

market and a frequent cause of death at that point in my life i just felt like everything was ash and my family was literally coming unglued i had actually planned. to commit some site was all who has made antidepressants so commonly used we were doing what the doctors told us to do we were being responsible and what the real side effects lying. was chemically altered when i did it was done on a cocktail of legal drugs. just because something's legal doesn't mean it's saying. it's all to be we have a great team but we need to strengthen it before the freefall world cold and your backs have been a legend to keep it so i took it back. in one thousand nine hundred two that must qualify for the european championships at

the very last moment no one believed in the last what we want and i'm hoping to bring some of that waiting spirit to the r.c.t. . recently i've had a lot of practice so i can guarantee you that peter schmeichel will be on the best fall since my last will call from the let's throw two or three. thousand zero zero zero zero hitter. strikes right left left left more or less ok stop that's really good. are welcome to go on sophie shevardnadze attentions in society sometimes reach a boiling point. not taken care of leading to evolution how do they work and are

they in voidable i asked professor jack goldstone scholar of revolutions former consultants to the us government and professor of public policy at the george mason university. nor the us they govern and the people's discontents becomes intolerable politics spills out from parliament chambers into the streets and squares what does it take to get from peaceful protests to an uprising a revolution just toppling governments really bring about the end of people. and what happens after everybody is successful. professor jack goldstone really great to have you on our program today welcome thank you very nice to be here by so let's start with tunisia i remember it was seen as sort of an arab spring poster child now seventy years on the sea or has started yet with new protests and people are saying hardly anything has changed why is it as

a success story well if you compare the conditions in tunisia to those in libya or syria or yemen it still looks great by comparison revolutions in general are messy uncertain if you look at the situation in ukraine after the two thousand and fourteen revolution the transitions are all difficult at least tunisia is not in a civil war get to ukraine but if we talk particularly about tunisia because that's where the arab spring started. in comparison everything is different but if we talk in particular about tunisia the nothing has really changed within the borders of tunisia for the batter i mean well i wouldn't say nothing has changed you have groups that are now active in politics that previously were shut out you have different coalitions forming what you don't have is a kind of idealized utopian transition to denmark right you don't take a country that was middle income corrupt authority. korean and instantly create

a. somehow rich modern peaceful country it takes a long time to complete that transition tunisia is having problems that's to be expected but it has not yet collapsed and that is worth applauding. so if you look at the arab world that's only home to like five percent of the world's population yet in accounts to how awful the terrorist attacks that take place in the whole world and there's still so much. and so much instability young people are growing more and more unhappy do you think there is a chance of a new are bringing new revolt well we're never there is injustice and deep inequality there is always a chance of a revolt people get angry about injustice they will tolerate poverty they will tolerate slow progress if they think their government is working in their interests but once they believe the government is no longer. taking care of them in any way

if the government officials are simply enriching themselves you have the risk of revolt and i think certainly throughout the arab world that risk will continue. but just in a nutshell if with sas the whole arab spring that took place seventy years ago would you say it brought the region for. region any good or where pretty much where we started off i would say the results are mostly negative but again you could've said the same thing about the french revolution and seven hundred eighty nine it started off with great ideals and it plunged the entire continent into war the nature of revolutions is they nurture wonderful dreams they often run into difficult painful realities but in the long run of history revolutions often serve the role of creating a change creating a space for something new to develop we don't know how long that will take revolution and we don't know what kind of change it will be no we don't in that

sense a revolution is like giving birth you don't quite know ten or twenty years down the line what type of person your child will grow up to be but you need to have birth in order to have change so you brought up ukraine and obviously revolution in ukraine. big hopes and now people are looking back and they're saying the situation is so bad we might as well have a new revolution so i was wondering if revolution happens ones i mean durables destabilize country to a point where the country is prone to fall back into this arrest time and time again one of the difficulties with color revolutions is they are peaceful relatively but because no deaths i don't mean no deaths i mean you don't have a kind of mass terror and civil war it's hard to have a revolution without a some number of people a few dozen a few hundred maybe even a few thousand but the great revolutions killed anywhere from. tens of thousands to

millions so the color revolutions are more peaceful by comparison but they also tend to be less completes and the changes they bring you don't have a new government that completely extinguishes its enemies you don't have a new government that develops new sources of revenue or a new ways of doing business that's rather a partial change and for that reason there are a lot of problems that remain unsolved and there's always a risk of going back there is what i call a partial or incomplete change that has the potential for regression or for further progress but in either way is not yet complete so what does it take for a successful revolution our relations just lucky revolts i mean does it take more than a clean siddons and angry population to make it a successful revolution or there is much more to it if it was that easy there'd be more revolutions in history than there are in order to overthrow a regime it does take popular discontent and popular mobilization but it also

requires actors with it in the leadership of the regime who feel that the regime is no longer serving the national interest you need people in the military or the bureaucracy or both who are willing to see the regime change otherwise they would be able to put down a popular revolt that did not have support at higher levels so when talk about america a little bit because there's also a rise in more radical movements like we see the black lives matter there is the ultra right and the other flank i mean this groups aren't exactly prone to dialogue and compromise they're actually quite uncompromising is there a chance that they could actually radicalize american politics or it's a thing that will pass well if you talk to a lot of people in america they feel our politics have already been radicalized democrats and republicans are not talking to each other that much president donald trump seems to be something different he's not a conventional republican. he's certainly not friends with the democrats he seems

to represent something else at what he calls the voice of the forgotten people by which he means rural small town america which is not being well served by the forces of globalization automation meritocracy and so we essentially have a radical popular movement aiming to restore something like the america post world war two when america felt it seemed the dominant country in the world that's what a lot of americans long for sometimes movements that which is cited to party and yes and also the black wax matter and the right flank do you feel like they have a real chance of succeeding and getting somewhere with being at the helm of the country well black lives matter is succeeding in bringing police reform there are a lot of people who are quite distressed and we now require police to wear cameras when they carry out arrest so we have a record of what's happened but let me point to another radical movement and that is the hash tag me to

a movement to say the traditional ways that men have interacted with women are not going to be accepted anymore yes we live in a patriarchal society but that does not mean men in power can impose their will on women or men who are their juniors and this has led to the downfall of some extraordinarily wealthy and powerful white men in america who thought they were untouchable so i'm thinking massive protests in the united states that have taken place in recent years like there are millions marching against war in iraq. a lot of people writing against police killing of black people unjustly. sit ins at the caught up pipeline and really they brought nothing why is that why are the protests of today weaker than let's say those of the sixty's because they really made ground it's a very good comparison i grew up with the riots of the sixty's and they had an enormous impact. civil rights women's rights and of course ending u.s.

involvement in vietnam right now the movements that we're seeing tend to be specific to a particular cause as you said stop a pipeline here deal with police brutality focus on women's problems now the great thing about america is when people want to express themselves they have the right to protest to assemble to create sit ins disruptions and that has always been a healthy part of american politics it's less effective now because the people who are looking for change have not come together in a broad national movement instead you have a number of limited movements now in american history when there was a time of major changes the little movement sometimes coming together and produce a big outcome i think that was the case in the one nine hundred sixty s. it may be the case in twenty eight teen if there is a transformative democratic wave that leads to electoral change perhaps we'll see

movements come together but we don't know yet all i can tell you is there is potential but so far it remains divided so you've said many times that actually people need to come out in the street and protest time to time to remind the government what they want and why they're unhappy but shit this is and overthrowing the government of these protests are for instance ignore it that the government no of course not the advantage of a democracy is that people can vote to change the government without having to overthrow it in the streets and indeed one could argue that the election of donald trump was a major protest against both of the mainstream political parties by people who felt we need a huge big change and they could accomplish that at the ballot box even though voting is often supported by popular organization and demonstrations the two essentially are i think complimentary parts of democracy they're not widely different. so if you look at riots and revolution is generally right people who

actually can't get themselves to get up from the couch go out on the street and protest and you know be very adamant about it are the act it wants right right but that they salant majority majority of the country they're just too lazy to go out and they sit at home or maybe they're not lazy but we don't know what they think so how is it fair to judge by going to mass protests as an expression of a whole country well lazy is not a good description unless you've gone out and interviewed people and asked why they're staying at home a lot of them simply have jobs and families well we're happy with everything we don't know that they're happy here's what we know in countries with a very youthful population you tend to have larger more violent more ideological revolutions because young people are wide open to the future they're not tied down with family obligations they're willing to take risks they're often more excited by the idea of change when you have

a population that is older it's harder to get people into the streets it usually only happens if there is some process under way that already has got people thinking about change for the future but people who stay home are not usually lazy they're usually fearful and waiting to see is this really an opportunity for change am i going to make a difference or is this something i had better sit out and wait for a better opportunity for him as it were then take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to professor jack goldstone talking about the nature of revolutions and where the next revolution may take place stay with us.

we're calling my enemy here every year again that i make one hundred nine hundred. that this was their your toy seventeen to go to all kinds of crazy eyes and yeah it sure did our experiencing a bit of a fall back. so i was pretty good with the market for something. yup we do all the last local tribal yell so we'll move forward so we'll move when we don't then we will all suitable for you know one of them a few of them will push it out so. you can find you. and then you may.