protest as an expression of a whole country well lazy is not a good description unless you've gone out and interviewed people and asked why they're staying at home a lot of them simply have jobs and families well we're happy with everything well we don't know that they're happy here's what we know in countries with a very youthful population you tend to have larger more violent more ideological revolutions because young people are wide open to the future they're not tied down with family obligations they're willing to take risks they're often more excited by the idea of change when you have a population that is older it's harder to get people into the streets it usually only happens if there is some process underway that already has got people thinking about change for the future but people who stay home are not usually lazy they're usually fearful and waiting to see is this really an opportunity for change am i going to make a difference or is this something i had better sit out and wait for

a better opportunity to resonate with and take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to professor jack goldstone talking about the nature of revolutions and where the next revolution may take place stay with us. about your sudden passing i've only just learnt. and taken your last. year at new it would i tell you i'm sorry. so i write these last words in hopes to put to rest these things that i never got off my chest. i remember when we first met my life turned on each. and my feeling starting to change you talked about war and i could. it was

a game still some are fond of you those that didn't like to question our arcade and i secretly promised to never be like it said one does not leave a funeral the same as one enters the mind gets consumed with death this one defines the speech because there are no other takers. to claim that mainstream media has met its maker. for page memo detailing extensive pfizer court abuse changed the course of what is known as russia gate also does the trumpet ministration syria policy make any sense and who's the real bully trumped by the media. what politicians do something to. put themselves on the line they get accepted or rejected. so when you want to be president. or some want to be rich.

that you'd like to do for us this is what before three of them or can't be good that i'm interested always in the waters about how. this should. when you don't. know. if you speak french.

we're back with professor jack goldstone fessor so this what's that you speak about does this always work this way i mean if countries have if countries populace is mostly made of young people are they really more prone to come out to revolt because young people are on compromising and young people are a great force for change it can be positive if an economy is doing well and young people feel confident in their future that they can invest in their education if they can get jobs build families a country gets richer as a result of having a youth bulge that is. given the opportunity to create wealth if however you have a youth bulge that is educated and can't find jobs or is forced into dead end jobs

that don't offer much of the future but they can't get the resources to build families then you're creating a tinderbox of ambition that has not been satisfied and may turn to protest or even violence if the opportunity comes so if we follow that logic does that mean the country that has an aging population has nothing to fear in terms of social unrest it has less to fear in terms of violence so if you look for example at turkey the gezi park protests were the beginning of a right a range of protests across turkey but they didn't turn violent iran right now is kind of just approaching the age at which it's unlikely that there will be violent protests in the future and the two thousand and nine protests were not very violent and those that occurred this year were even more peaceful even though they apparently came more out of economic anger so i would say as countries around the

world mature in their population gets older we have less to fear of the kind of really ideological violent revolutions that said there are a lot of young countries in the islamic world lot of young countries in sub-saharan africa so i don't believe the age of violent revolutions is over what we see in yemen and syria that's where the youngest arab populations in the world. country government that is. the government of a country that is mostly made up of young population how do they make sure that it doesn't necessarily turn into evolution if they aren't going to well well if things are not going to well it's difficult to avoid anger so it's necessary to start to give people an opportunity to see real change so giving younger people opportunities to join leadership organising. investing in. not just

education but actually jobs that allow people to use their education so starting new projects building new research centers or communities encouraging foreign investments all of these things can help younger people who are ambitious feel you know this government is giving me a reason to have a stake in the future it's not giving me a reason to give up hope and then there's the money factor of course that alan talk about because apart from my deeper ideological causes when people go out and protest they're really just comes down to money and they need hot drinks blankets weapons so this is really also about who funds to revolutionize the success of our illusions and by who funds it i don't think you can put the success of a revolution into who funds it simply because once people have become sufficiently energized and. anxious to create a revolution they're willing to take considerable risks putting their lives on the line and they're willing to endure quite a bit of hardship to take

a change that they thought might never come and now they've got a chance to realise that change in their own lifetimes yes if there's going to be revolutionary mobilization people do need to be fed they do indeed be provided for but that usually comes from their families it may come from local businesses who want to support a change it rarely comes from outside and the reason is. countries that want to intervene in revolutions first they usually wait to see which way things are going to turn because they don't want to back a loser second they usually prefer to intervene with military force rather than just funding because intervening with some military force gives them confidence that hey i'm a foreign power i want to influence events in this country if i just give money i don't know where that's going to go or what's going to happen but if i can give military support. to my side i have greater confidence that they're going to end up on top well some would argue that actual revolutions could be

a great investment let's say i don't know that the syrian uprising was funded by the gulf states and the ball shake revolution was funded by germans i don't know the national endowment for democracy help revolutions in serbia in ukraine. could you say that it is profitable to invest in a revolution i think revolutions are lousy investments because what you want in an investment is some degree of predictability of the outcome and one thing that's true about revolutions is their outcomes are very unpredictable but in general foreign countries that have tried to intervene in revolution have been frustrated you look at every country in europe that tried to reverse the french revolution and failed you look at all of the countries who hoped that the arab spring would lead to something stable and predictable it did not so i don't i wouldn't advise any foreign country to suggest a new revolution invest in their side america has actually used a regime change as

a foreign policy to quite a few times even after the cold war and just as few of the consequence these among others who are like taleban and i see could you really can you expect a revolution and then tame it. usually not the more likely you get a backlash and i think the case as you point out are good ones so don't invest in a revolution because the consequences you have to. endure afterwards right worse than that at the end of the day revolutions gain strength from nationalism a revolutionary government usually justifies change by saying our nation that special and that we love will be better after we have a revolution if a foreign power is too strongly identified with a revolutionary movement it can lose that nationalist appeal so it's just not a good idea for foreign powers to think yes we'll be able to control the revolution will be able to back it often supporting the revolution just leads to

a backlash against the foreign power and an assertion of native nationalism that's against foreigners well was it fair to say that the revolutions of today always have a nationalistic tend to because if you look at the communist revolutions and. past century they were organized by a very strict party and when you look at protests now there are these joint it forces. people who are protesting do they were also today not need an organized force anymore to loot them let me ask you about human nature do you think it's mainly rational or emotional probably emotional and the emotional side of humanity is what nationalism appeals to so revolutionaries often start with a rational plan we have an ideal of equality we have an ideal of a communist redistribution of goods we have an ideal of building a society that follows the koran there are beautiful moral ideals that inspire

people to make revolution but at the end of the day to bring the masses over you need an emotional appeal and that is most commonly found through nationalism so whether it's the communist revolution in china the russian revolution even the american revolution at the end of the day which means after a decade two decades what you have left is a strong nationalist attachment to the written new revolutionary regime that's what ends up winning at the end and what does the technological progress made for at the revolutions that are yet to come i mean in ancient egypt twitter and facebook how to unite people and that more technology progresses more government control they're raised over it that's correct what we find in the history of revolutions is a series of technological jumps in communication the printing press allowed pamphlets to play an important role in the puritan revolution and the french

revolution in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries then the telegraph and radio played an important role in revolutions cable television was probably a bigger force than social media in igniting broad revolutionary movements in the arab spring. it was the televising of protests and the self-immolation stories all of that really got out more through al-jazeera and then through social media the next round maybe social media or maybe something else maybe a bit coin financed revolution will be the next move what we do know is that people who want change will take advantage of whatever technology is available to try and get around government control and then after the revolution the government will try and control the new technology we see that in china with its great fire wall using the internet more for the purpose of government management of society then

opponents can use it for change now professor you've been studying revolutions all your life you probably have an insight of where next generation may take place. let me put it this way i wouldn't trust people who have been playing the stock market all their life to tell me where the next stock market movers going to be everybody miss the big downturn in two thousand and seven two thousand and nine experts missed the collapse of communism they did not expect the arab revolutions so i tell people revolutions are like earthquakes they're big powerful changes but that doesn't mean we can predict exactly when and where they will occur rather what we know about earthquakes is where the major fault lines are and i can tell you where the major fault lines are for revolutions they're in countries that have weak governments elites that have ethnic or other divisions and populations that are still anxious for greater change than their governments can deliver you see

a lot of those in sub-saharan africa parts of the middle east some of the countries in southeast asia and those along the endian spine of latin america so those are the areas i would watch with a higher likelihood of revolutions in the future but just like the big japanese earthquake a few years ago that took place on a fault that geologists had not mapped because it was fairly deep we might see a revolution someplace where we haven't yet mapped out the fault lines if there is a uprising a popular uprising say in hungary against the new strengthened party government maybe in turkey against everyone's newly authoritarian regime the possibility of revolution is always there if people sense in justice and an opportunity in the weakness of the government and that's why i tell people until he live in a world where everyone is confident that their future will be bright we will see the risk of revolution coming back professor thank you very much for this

interesting engineering side and world of revolutions good luck with everything thank you it's been my pleasure. join me every thursday on the alec simon show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm showbusiness i'll see you then. as you read the stand and hear from us and. move from one house. i know a good armor on our show but there are rather democrats that are before fourth down

because of that. i'm going to let them but i don't cut and then you cut and and keep an eye on what i don't think is a channel for truffle that it will never tell. me about a lot and i was going on the show little side of. the thing the only a lot of the. members of the hey how do you want to do it. and get this whole four place choice for you the i knew you didn't pay i think time in syria has said. that she ought to have a. model for that in africa will fuck around with mr hates it for jim and lawyer for hope that our family in the course. of the money.

it's seemed wrong. just. to. get to shake out just because the ticket and engagement equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart. just to look for common ground. but my area. nine hundred. said this was their year twenty seven say to go to all kinds of crazy eyes it's sure to barracks very thing a bit of a fallback. prescribe medication is widespread on the us market and a frequent cause of death at that point in my life i just felt like everything with

my family was literally coming unglued i had actually planned. to commit some sight was all who has made antidepressants so commonly used we were doing what the doctors told us to do we were being responsible and what the real side effects. was. when i did was done on a cocktail of legal drugs. just because something's legal doesn't mean it's a. little. tired.

brawler upset in the israeli parliament during a speech by the us vice president on moving the american embassy to jerusalem. u.n. prepares to deal with the humanitarian crisis in northern syria amid a deadly turkish offensive against kurdish forces. stop army officials bands more funding it to counter the suppose of threat from. u.s. senators agree to support a funding bill to end a government shutdown and allow it to keep working for another two weeks congress in session right now on the phone.

broadcasting live from our studios in moscow this is our team john thomas surely glad to have you with us and the u.s. vice president has announced that washington's embassy in israel will move to jerusalem by the end of next year mike pence gave a speech to the israeli parliament. president trump has directed the state department to immediately begin preparations to move the united states embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem and that united states embassy will open before the end of next year well this announcement by the american vice president is hugely controversial and no doubt will be met with the same kind of backlash that met the announcement by the american president donald trump last month when he stated that jerusalem is the capital of israel now they were protests that were held as the american vice president landed in israel yesterday there were posters with his face

on that were trampled on and thrown about at the same time a day of rage has been called for tomorrow or tuesday in the palestinian territories the palestinian leadership is boycotting this visit by the american vice president now that protest actually moved inside the israeli parliament today just as paris was about to start his speech members of the arab joint let's this is the third largest faction in the israeli parliament and it represents some four arab dominated israeli political parties these lawmakers stood up and started shouting and holding crack cards that say that jerusalem is the capital of palestine the supreme court. citizens of israel. thank you. thank you israeli parliamentarians gave mike pence

a long standing ovation to try and detract attention away from the i would members of parliament cry but at the same time there is also age that has been happening for the pos few weeks since the american president said he recognizes to receive them as israel's capital both here inside israel in the palestinian territories gaza and in the international community. i. was. i i was the. go to the palestinian president mahmoud abbas is currently in brussels way he is meeting with the e.u. foreign policy chief now the e.u.

has criticized tom's earliest statement that he recognizes to see them as israel's capital and have said that they stand by their commitment of a two state solution. are we spoke to an israeli lawmaker who walked out during my prince of speach. well we decided from the beginning that we want to deliver a message that there is at least twenty five twenty is thirty per cent of the people in is that do not welcome him or his policy or to the policy of his administration that we see the danger in leading such kind of. total. support to binyamin netanyahu governments the fact that benson wanted to declare that today that they are moving the american embassy to jerusalem says very clearly that they don't care what the palestinian people see as their right this

brings a lot of anger and outrage among the palestinians i hope that this will not deteriorate we hope that to the full s.t.d. our palestinian people are was find a way to express their outrage and their anger about such kind of the collaboration without losing a lost. president of turkey has rejected international calls to scale back a military offensive in northern syria the turkish army has ramped up its efforts to dislodge the region's kurdish fighters views as terrorist intervention follows an announcement from the us that it plans to establish a new border force in the region which will include kurdish y p g forces.

well let's take a look at how power is distributed in the border region the areas that you see here in yellow are held by various kurdish militias and it is here in the afferent region that the latest flashpoint is in syria where turkey is carrying out its military operation it's receiving backing from the syrian rebel groups that is shown in this area in green right here now turkish tanks have reportedly been closing in on the city of assad which you see on the map and then intends to turn its attention to mond beach now the syrian kurds have already asked the u.s. led coalition for support washington has voiced its concerns calling on turkey to limit its offensive in time and scope president gave a defiant response telling the u.s. to worry about its own campaigns in iraq and afghanistan are to go takes

a closer look at the troubled relationship between the two nato allies. unbelievable is this real a nato member telling daddy you know i mean i mean behave yourself oral point a gun and am i exaggerating a bit mr aired on didn't say that these exact words but turkey's got a prime minister who pretty much did anyone who gives logistical support to the white b.g. is turkey's target for the record the white b.g. equals the kurdish army and for all these years who's been giving the kurds all kinds of support right. over the weekend the kurds were extended in all of branch that's what ankara calls its military op the kurds say they repelled an attack on sunday but where does that wiping get its guns. tapered on couldn't care less why washington's been helping the kurds to destroy eisel for this man the

kurdish militias are no better than terrorists that explains his latest messages to america the us is in the process of creating the terror army. what we have to do. in the america do not encroach on the borders do not provoke us and we will run out of patience does anyone from the us government have anything to say we urge turkey to exercise restraint in its military actions in rhetoric ensure that its operations are limited in scope and duration some very restrained council there to be restrained think about it mr aired on rants that america u.s. officials don't hit back turkey rolls up the tanks flies out the war play sends soldiers over the border washington basically keeps stuff after all this isn't about him who's slightest squeak makes donald trump for one war so perhaps the

turks and the kurds have succeeded and one thing together we're juicing america to baffle. silence now we should know shortly after u.s. military officials announced their intention to create a thirty thousand stronger border force washington backtracked on that u.s. secretary of state said the u.s. has no such plan and the situation had been mis portrayed and whenever russia's foreign minister has disputed that claim. comes the contradictions public the police and u.s. announcement of create an unarmed force along the syrian border in fact america continues its actions to establish control of the parts of serious territory. in the meets on the u.s. scares the kids away from the damascus washington is encouraging separates a sentiment among the because. meanwhile germany's foreign minister has said any military confrontation would carry huge risks and following an emergency un security council session on monday france called on turkey to show restraint saying

other members share its view. co-author of the new turkey and it does and gave us his views on the situation this is a. thought of mistrust between turkey and the united states and in general nato turkey has been calling nato. to take an action there is no cooperation between the turkey and united states is the biggest friend of turkey is actually i think it's the biggest enemy of turkey today turkey is trying to create more options putting to russia or thaw it seems like turkey is trying to make a deal with it so you want the more you should speak up the future of the syria special northern syria is all about the relationship between them of course and their position to wipe e.g. they did they will work to go.