doesn't seem to do more. but there's a lot. oh imax guys are home. cars are. this is the cars a report kaiser report kaiser you know sometimes i hear the doppler effect i don't know what that's all about we won't go there but we're going to talk about some good news first but that good news is actually leading alternately to bad news as a bad news on the back of the good news but we're going to start with the good news first and here's some good news for our gold bugs out there because i know they have been kind of sad or you know morose these last few years as gold is like traded within a tight range for four or five years doing nothing while bitcoins stolen all its

glory well it could be back to bitcoin like days soon bond king jeff gold lock says gold could rally a thousand dollars of course bill gross is the bond king but this guy also now goes by the boss. but the c.e.o. of double line also known as the bond king is once again attracting the attention of gold investors as he sees a yellow metal at a critical juncture quote we see a massive base building in gold massive as a four year five year base in gold if we break above this resistance line one could expect gold to go up by like thousand dollars he said during the twenty eighteen modeling economic strategic investment conference according to a recent recap from steve blumenthal chief investment officer at c.m.g. though it's a good up to twenty four or twenty five hundred dollars an ounce and i saw that he jeff was reading up with peter peter schiff just a few months ago they had lunch jeff house in los angeles they're talking big old

things there yes peter schiff he likes is a gold cufflinks he wears those a lot oh as men may go i you know i order somebody say that they saw peter schiff on. a cruise recently trying to sell his twenty four carat gold color flanks to people on the cruise so he were really is a personification of always be closing peter never stop selling he never stops closing that's what makes him great where i promise you some bad news i like i know max like some bad news in there and every single headline said the bad news behind why this so-called new bond king jeff. gold rising by thousand the most prominent factor behind the let's bullish gold outlook is a weaker u.s. dollar in his presentation he said he sees the u.s. dollar continuing to push lower in twenty eighteen there are other economists out there also seeing that the dollar is going to weaken you know it's broken out of

a trend it's going down again and it looks like it will go continue to go down well there are three trades that have been wrong for five years one is that the dollar is going to crash to the goal is going to twenty five hundred in the very short term and that three the bond market's going to crash all those three trades have been absolutely wrong for five years and they've taken many people out on a stretcher john paulson by the way big hedge fund manager he just closed his gold position he had a gold fund he was a big old investor he bought a ton of gold tons and tons of gold didn't go anywhere he calls it out so is jeff going to be the guy who calls it right well let's see that is a classic contrarian position and you know when somebody like paulson says gold he capitulates that's a good oh yeah we found a few contrary and moments like that over the past three four five years so here's a headline from michelle locke and it's rosenberg says buy gold buy oil buy commodities economist david rosenberg expects the u.s.

dollar to fall his recommendation is to buy commodities miche agrees but he says just gold forget oil and all that stuff but he points to his u.s. dollar chart that he uses and this goes back to two. thousand and one this is the five years that you said that everybody's been saying the dollar will fall well in fact you clearly see it's broken the trend of the trend is now down mischa's look at this is that it's going to hit eighty and the dollar index at the moment is about ninety the all time lows around seventy but as far as hyperinflation goes or return of inflation one interesting side note would be how the money velocities really bend down to zero that means all the money that's been printed is building up on the balance sheets of these banks and attempt to keep themselves from declining insolvency once that dam breaks and that money starts to come back into the economy the central bank says if they can just raise interest rates gradually and that they can manager the whole quantitative easing nightmare by reverse quantitative easing historically that's never ever happened once inflation genie is

out of the bottle it becomes a rampant high inflation hyper inflation so yeah gold and oil could do very very well in that environment and we're overdue for the type of psych cyclical turn the other crazy thing that's been going on in the u.s. here's some good news which could lead to more bad news on the down side on the other side of this and that is the i.m.f. forecast i am have spots trouble ahead for the global economy after twenty twenty so up until two thousand and twenty they're saying things are going to be great and especially in the u.s. they've revised up their forecast for the u.s. up until twenty twenty you know what happens then in the election. whether or not donald trump is in jail by then we don't know but if he's not in jail then it looks like he could be reelected based on the i.m.f. forecast who knows what will happen to m s n b c rachel maddow i consider my eyes

moving more as i've been saying the sense day one of the trump administration that a twenty twenty election victory is high probability and these numbers just underscore that. as being the probable event that we can look forward to in two thousand and twenty when we might have to have a coup the second successful coup in america we've only had one that was in wilmington north carolina the second one might happen because of this the international monetary fund predicted the world's economy strongest upswing says twenty eleven will continue for the next two years but warned the seeds of his demise may have already been planted the fun on tuesday left its forecast for global growth this year and next to the three point nine percent estimated in january and raise this outlook for the u.s. as republican tax cuts take effect so all the seeds of disaster that they see coming in two thousand and twenty are mostly us based as the tax cuts and the debts

and the deficits that will emerge because of that but also the trade war going on with china north and stop the korea are declaring a truce and then a war that's been going on for decades coming to a close if they open up north korea it's like opening up china during the world trade organization under clinton it assured in an enormous boom if you're going to open up north korea to development and all kinds of interesting american corporations going in there and building infrastructure projects and trump can take credit for that happening he takes full credit and dennis rodman of course are the orch or the architects of the peace between north and south korea are going to have a huge boom and that's good news on the headline right that finally the two koreas are you actually declaring peace i don't think a peace was ever really declared back in the fifty's so now they're actually going to have a peace that however could cause rachel maddow sorts on m.s.n. b.c. imagine donald trump winning the nobel peace prize they would have a total total breakdown and demand we nuke somebody like they would go over the top

they would truly just like what would happen he he watches cable news all day long so he's likely to respond to that as well who knows matter is a dancing chicken you you know. put a quarter in the machine and she'll do her little dance around the hot plate screaming about trump all for nothing the sound and fury signifying nothing is something that i wrote a few years ago and the shakespeare stole it of course so going back to the story about the i.m.f. and what they see as possibly going horribly wrong after these two years of great growth the i.m.f. or the expansion could be derailed if countries resort to tit for tat trade sanctions obviously they're talking about the u.s. the first shots in a potential trade war have now been fired i.m.f. chief economist maurice feld said in a forward to the fun's outlook reiterating the i.m.f. warning earlier this month that the global trading order is in danger of being torn

apart conflict could intensify if isco policies in the united states drive its trade deficit higher without action in europe and asia to reduce surpluses which is quite interesting that he actually mentions that you know europe has germany namely has huge trade surpluses and they've got to do something about it too not just china this was what bretton woods was supposed to solve that they didn't want these trade imbalances not just the huge trade deficit like america has but it was equally as corrupt and inclusive to the global trading system to have massive surpluses like germany and china have safety. wrote this book the bitcoin standard which is now hugely popular in economic circles around the world big coin is proving to be the new gold standard last year in a global period of trade harmony as the globe comes into the crypto sphere and

when i come back after the break i'll be talking to some very important crypto people but in the last minute i want to turn to this final headline about what they're warning about what could possibly go wrong with the outlook beyond twenty twenty and. that is of course debt the guardians of the global economy face challenges beyond trade including the end of years of easy central bank money and a war old the debt pile that has climbed to a record one hundred sixty four trillion dollars financial markets have been choppy this year with the u.s. stocks down slightly after a strong performance in twenty seventeen now you had pointed out when you were talking to mitch firesign just so that so to go that central bank balance sheets how it's just he points out the u.s. fed you saw the little tapering at the end is just a little tiny blip down and the fact is that we've hardly tapered. rates are hardly up but irrelevant on a global basis or money's been flooding into it and that's a complete repudiation of us whole idea you can't take a proponent use game and big point is ready to take over the world and i talked to

arthur hayes in the second half again max the debt is one hundred fifty four trillion dollars now that has doubled since the financial crisis so we have this huge debt load these but this the day of reckoning whether or not trump whether or not the masters of the universe whether or not the trumpet administration whether or not jerome pal whether or not these sort of guys the central bank you talk about the bitcoin stener right now we're still in the u.s. dollar standard whether or not they can keep it going for another two years for trying to win another four year term is up for whatever but by going to do so you will. have for years a hands down certainly got to take a break on the razor's coming up talking about cheap trick famous band from the seventies matchpoint and bit mixed go it.

if. it's. a little. welcome back to the kaiser report imax keyser time now to turn to arthur hayes

c.e.o. of bit mix arthur welcome thanks for having me great to see a longtime friend and associate and we've been talking to you for a long time one of the early folks in bitcoin in the big coin exchange you are the c.e.o. of bit max first tell us about bit max what's going on there so we're now the number one exchange in the world in terms of average daily trading volume we trade financial products so leverage financial products are i guess key product as a one hundred times leveraged big quivers as u.s. dollar swap that is the most liquid instrument traded to a way right and it's a knock on and so you've been navigating through this space now for a few years what have been the some of the biggest challenges so far for you is getting liquidity going but for any exchange on about the hardest challenge and thankfully we've been no place right time with the derivatives space and caught the two thousand and sixteen to seventeen wave and it's been very good for us so far

wow so now you've got a project one hundred times leverage so you know it's one hundred times lever to. me that's a pretty dicey product what's that what is the daily volume so that product is between two to four billion us dollars of trading volume every day wow and so you are exchange like all the exchanges out there must be feeling pretty good there are two businesses in crypto that are seemingly very well positioned mining and exchanges and you've got the most likely exchange out there and we're seeing a lot of mainstream interest in these exchanges that goldman sachs i believe is buying into polonia x. which is one of the exchanges so we're going to see more mainstream push into these crypto markets and as a follow up you know they seem to be both a bit trying to. be badmouthing the space and encouraging a lot of regulation but at the same time trying to get into the space so what's

going on there i think at the end of the day it's a revenue accretion to the bottom line so if you have a industry where in certain donna styles there are more registered accounts on a crypto exchange than on the domestic stock market and the fees are multiples higher than what traditional. broker change charges and the demand is insatiable then as a financial institution you have to get involved in a gross of what's your personal view about the long term viability a big point is i mean banks sold x.i.v. you know short volatility ts they don't really care what you know one product is that you make money right the markets they're going to sell they're going to accommodate the market if the demand is there that's what they'll do and so the demand for big going is their demand for crypto is there they have to respect it they can't pretend it's not going to be here for now it's changed the landscape and they've got to participate and so were you before a bit back so let's give us a little your background so i used to be a e.t.f. market maker but your bank and citibank on the hong kong and singapore stock

exchange so i made markets and a variety of number of e.t.s. around the world and i did that for about five years and then no thankfully i got let go from my job at citibank and started training because full time and then parlay that into opening up next in two thousand and fourteen with my other two co-founders well so what was it about the coin technology that struck you really got you hooked i think there was a possibility of completely changing the financial services industry and you really only get a chance like this once every two or three hundred years for a shift in how people perceive and use money and obviously vast fortunes have been made and lost during these transitional periods and i obviously want to try my hand at it what do you think is the thing that the academics are missing you know you're a big academics like paul krugman and others and they're very critical of that claim and yet the industry is growing by leaps and bounds you've established that

there's a huge business for those what are they missing in your view i think that they don't really understand any of the financial products that are out there let alone . so there's so many economists that barely understand how you know fresh and reserve banking works or how central banks were you know they think that printing money will solve economic problems that obviously not the case. so if they believe in these fallacies why we should we think that they have any idea what's going on in the cryptographic earth space right various states of course are getting nervous because it does cut out the middleman it cuts out the state you could say cut south central banks you've got peer to peer value exchange without any intermediary and so this is a threat to as you say the system that's been around for two or three hundred years what are were we in that cycle are they getting close are they are they going to win this battle i think you know what the answer is probably going to be no but how do you see that battle shaping up what's the next big battle to that we will see we've seen states come out and try to ban it and we've seen regulatory initiatives

you say in the f.c.c. we've seen the a c f t c so what do you think is the next six to twelve months what do you see coming down the pike well i think that trip to currencies will exist in ten with traditional fiesta currencies and at the end of the day humans are lazy and so if you make the traditional system work and it's convenient and people can use it they have no desire to try something new look in china right they have which i pay anywhere in china from a taxi cab to a person selling you a piece of fruit on the street everyone uses this mobile app and this mobile money and it's so convenient it's way better than anything i've else in any other country i've ever been to so if i have which i pay why do i need to go out and try to figure out what a big quite well it is or bonaire or any of the these currencies i have a system that actually works for my daily needs and so i think that's where we're going to go if you're going to see financial services actually start responding to what people in this day and age actually want which is convenience mobile money and

that means that it will be co-existing with quite another cryptocurrency i don't think either one is going to replace the other let's talk geopolitics for a second so you recently made by the way let me point this out to folks that bit max publishes excellent research so this is sorely lacking in the. space age you're taking high level banking institutional style research that the industry is accustomed to and you are applying it to crypto and you coming out with some of the best research really anywhere out there and you wrote a report recently that said that about and plus and how sanctions on russia might actually end up making them a crypto currency mining powerhouse explained so our research analyst. has been researching how captive electricity sources can be put to good use so imagine you have a massive an aluminum smelting facility in the middle of nowhere and they needed to

put some power next to this facility to you know power the smelting of aluminum which is one of the most energy intensive you know dust or commodities that's produced and so usually these you know electricity production facilities are in remote areas not close to any population centers so if now say the you know press room collapses you have this captured electricity is not being used well big money can actually put in an economic productive use to this electricity generation and that's what we're seeing in china and in mongolia and you know possibly russian other places where you have a lot of it with electricity and low use from traditional industrial players so the sanctions applied to it wasn't russell they as a low minimum powerhouse in russia and so if the sanctions cut into them they can convert over to pick on mining exactly and they could become a parent so that could be huge but i mean so by dint of necessity the mother of invention russia could be pushed into becoming i tripped up our house at

a time in the world history when crypto dominates and replaces feel possibly more could just be another way to transact globally in the financial system and depending on whether or not they think that is worth their while ok let's change gears you did some great research on the ripple your thoughts i think that ripple is misunderstood. in terms of what it is people think that it's a crypto currency akin to big quine but from you know first blush it appears that it looks as if the centralized system for moving value around and that's not inherently a good or bad thing is just that i think a lot of people don't really understand what ripple this trying to achieve and then secondarily a lot of people look at you know ripple partnering with x.y.z. financial situation and think that the actual token is going to be use and that particular application but usually it's the ripple corporation actually doing outside contractor work building some sort of swift replacement system and the token x r p has no bearing in that that people commonly make that mistake by

confusing the consulting services of ripples the corporation and the token absolutely and so would you say the token gets. placed on the spectrum of valuation is it can you make a call to say it's overvalued or undervalued or i don't care. so at some point it's undervalued at some points it's overvalued really depends on how the market's going to react to a particular piece of news i think no one can come in here and tell you there's a fundamental value that they can build a model for any coins or anyone who says oh oh this coin to revalue this coin is undervalued maybe on a short term technical training basis but you know on a one year to year basis no one has any idea what are you coming out with your report on max coin. i might need a few million dollars for that first oh. ok i understand well i heard it was undervalued but you know that's my research and i know you know i'm

a slightly you know i have an opinion about it so let's talk about a theory of. the second biggest cryptocurrency after bitcoin there are about moving from a proof of stake instead of proof of work so explain the differences between these two models and what your thought about that i mean it's a perfect. work is using actual physical real world expenditure of resources to validate blocks which solves a number of cryptographic problems in the byzantine generals problem that a cryptographic just paraphrasing here proof of stake is people staking that they own a particular portion of coins and using that to validate blocks now there are pros and cons on this and no we're theorem says now i think it's going to be very difficult for them to completely remove proof of work from their consensus algorithm not to saying it can't be done but i think it's a lot more difficult than what people imagine they think ok the taluk and co have

said to those eighteen who are going to prove a stake and they take that as gospel it's going maybe that will happen but the road to that point is going to be very difficult ok fair enough a very diplomatic answer so again you are really just in the business of making markets and you don't want to say you know the opinion is you let the market decide absolutely right so maybe put out some excellent research. and which is great i see a lot of the exchanges in the business seem to be moving to malta you know malta is attracting a lot of the big exchanges a lot of traffic what's behind that and would you ever consider it so i mean at the end of the day we want to be wanted and i particularly like this restraint song i want. to watch. we have all these businesses generating high paying jobs paying taxes and at the end of the day being snubbed by financial institutions and governments when at the end of the day governments should be supporting an industry that is employing people and paying them a good wage and let's explore the first i can say you want to go where you want it

in other words you've got huge business you've got huge revenues you've got jobs so you can jurisdiction shop and go where you're wanted and because the idea that these governments are going to either work individually or gang up and get rid of this threat. as they perceive it crypto currency is false they will fail so you're going to go where you can get the best reception and so it is a game theory on a big geo political scale in other words the only way that this is going to work is if all of these governments work together but according to game theory at least one of them will break ranks and say you know we're the underdogs we want this money we want the business will take the business to heck with you guys we want to do we want the business and they'll run away with it men don't think most i don't think there's a uniform governments believe exits the spectrum in terms of you know what their particular social political system we did we live in a piece of peace exactly and lo and harmony here every where they don't use it it's

always war so there is always the a government that wants a high paying job in a particular jurisdiction or a territory or you know take the united states a particular state that's lobbying for a company to move their headquarters from california to x. right and then they'll throw all sort of inducements to get them there it's the same thing with a national in the national or you know federal global level there are jobs to be had there's innovation to be made do you want your country to be in the next phase of the development of financial services for many or do you want to stay back in you know the seventy's and eighty's and you know governments will still select them selves on the particular pendulum and the jobs will go to the place that wants to be innovative. well excellent leave it there are other haystacks me on the cars report they very much all right well that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy herbert like to thank our guests are there hey c.e.o. of the one and only bit met if you want to reach us on twitter as kaiser report

until next time. rick you. want to.

thank you for. taking a cue. los angeles the city of luxury and fame but also an alarming number of people living in the streets. the simple fact in l.a. is there's just not enough shelter even if people on the streets right now decided to come in there's nowhere to come in and it's been a struggle. and this man found his own response to the problem and constructed dozens of tiny homes for people in need of shelter when you have nothing and

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the french president now appears to open to compromise over the iran nuclear agreement after an hour in trump's company. also this hour how rowing scenes from war stricken given show the. saudi coalition air strike on a wedding party which killed at least twenty people. i'm not proud of. and outrage continues to grow over the conduct of these ready defense forces as video emerges showing a soldier cheering after shooting a protester in the west bank.