think off message could put us in more than a mess that is what we call softness in this this one is it is the innocence of women the more think the more and more self the will miss you in the warden's problems with bats in the beginning isn't this in the eyes onto the problem started on with the old business start in a more sustainable was in front of that i've been described on the phone. to. a. good lawyer.

hello and welcome to cross talk for all things considered i'm peter lavelle donald trump claims he's the master of the deal but when it comes to iran it is the art of no deal the reasons the american president withdrew from the nuclear deal to range from allies and distant from ation to outright political propaganda trump claims he has made america safer a dubious claim closer to the truth this probably attempt to force regime change in iran. in the iran deal i'm joined by my guest mohammad marandi and to rand he's an associate professor at the university of tehran in london we have adel darwish he's a political commentator and author of the book the edge of war and in pittsburgh we have. the he is a partner red global growth advisors international strategic consultancy group based in new york or a gentleman cross-like rules in effect that means he can jump in anytime you want

and i always appreciate it mohamed let me go to you to rand since you know donald trump's obsession with your country i watched live the live stream on r t his. reasons if they can be called reasons for withdrawing from the from the deal and as i said in the introduction it was a mixture of misinformation disinformation and outright propaganda i think an entire documentary series could actually be made on that single speech so i want to skip ahead in the question everyone's asking it is is is this just the preamble to a military conflict with iran go ahead in. yes it was extraordinary even accuse iran of helping al-qaeda hide in the taliban where we all know everyone knows that the united states and saudi arabia they were the ones behind the establishment of the extremists in afghanistan and pakistan which led to al-qaeda and the taliban and in fact

a while back he actually said that you know the iranians and the russians are fighting isis so apparently his world view changes very rapidly but no i don't i don't think it's really possible for the united states to seriously contemplate any military aggression against iran or the so-called the notion of the you know regime change as they say because first of all the iran is a very powerful country it's a very large country. the country is united in very much thanks to trump because now the differences that existed over negotiating with the united states are all over everyone agrees that you can't talk to the united states are simply unreliable those who are opposed to the negotiations are saying we were right and those who were for the negotiations said well we gave it a shot and we showed that there are dishonest and of course this began under obama he wasn't abiding by the agreement either but trump ended so the countries united it's much stronger today than before. it's been dealing with sanctions for

a long time now and since the deal was never really implemented iran is still working around sanctions so it's much better equipped to deal with sanctions than before it's global position is much better because trump has isolated himself in countries like russia and china know that if iran grows weak it's it's not good for them either because they'll be next and iran's regional status is very powerful iran has very strong allies across the region and the americans have a presence across every region so they would be very vulnerable if there was any form of conflict ok so i don't think i don't take that sort of ok well maybe we're not there yet adel let me go to you in london i. i'd like to refer you to an op ed that john bolton wrote for the washington post that was titled the iran deal was betrayed by its own dismal record i mean it's really quite fascinating reading because it doesn't deal with the deal what so whatever everything on the margins it doesn't you know and the whole coverage of it in western media particularly on

cable t.v. never once maybe i missed something i don't watch it twenty four seven but nobody mentions the i.a.e.a. that says that iran is in compliance that's not mentioned by donald trump either ok i mean this is what i find quite remarkable about it and i think mohamed is absolutely right it's going to get down to a reputational issue here i mean if you don't want to deal with the facts and only focus on your prejudices it's going to be tough dealing with the united states in the future later in the program want to talk about how europe is going to deal with it go ahead adele react i don't know if you read the john bolton piece but it's really very interesting fiction go ahead. well it's actually it's not a surprise coming from john bolton because we know how he actually stands i remember when there was a crisis between iran and the royal navy in patrolling shuttle out of the gulf war the iranians took. some hostages who

were on armed bridge and i remember bolton actually wanted the troops aipac iran. and the british diplomats were trying to calm him down so that's his view but let's go back to the question actually would it. abolish you know or withdraw from the deal make america safer i don't think that question because medicare civil or not is a question of making trump's positions for within he's going to sit u.n.c. let's not forget that actually putting out of the deal was part of his election in troops so he still he still see the world through. this very very stupid noddle window of his own constituency and his own promises there now you're asking mohammed about sort of a regime change i don't think that was and i don't think even a part of

a strategy as it is question of if you continue conflict will be by proxy so iran with us hezbollah and the medical with you it's all in. israel and so on but but finally i think what the problem he had with the deal was incomplete because he's sort of are lies the arabs who are not included in the deal the ballistic missiles and so on he could have really continue. as an ep and next to this deal is ok let's just. let's continue in that you know either the. in pittsburgh i absolutely agree with that tell the the nuclear deal was an opening it could have started a process and i think a lot of its wanted that to be the case were ok you can't solve all problems all at once because we know the middle east is an amazingly complicated place but that's not what happened here and they and i want to make sure our viewers remind them the

rand is following to the letter i mean the inspections are very intrusive here now adding on ballistic missiles and everything else and iran's foreign policy is extremely and reasonable and that's and that's exactly why they do want to put this on the table because they know that's never going to happen here go ahead in pittsburgh. peter you are right when president obama tried for almost seven hundred days to sign this deal it was signed by july of two thousand and fifteen to intentional was one thing to take military option off the table for an. indie united states and they did that right why so because they knew if they widened the scope of the deal meaning if they would include other activities like i.c.b.m. and others there would be no deal on the table then they could not bring the chinese it would not bring the russians and the europeans to happen senses that they knew that was not going to happen now here's what has happened i agree to chances of military confrontation with iran hasn't escalated but it has gone up how so because by putting if you will. or by by boxing the united states in that no

g c p always that is a nice states is in a way escalating tension in already escalated tensions middle east that we have right now we just saw there we just saw what's happening in within syria between iran illegibly and also is right these so this these are these are problematic here's what's happening with president trump president trump he says he's he's about america first and if he's about america first even if he was looking at the politics of the nuclear deal peter he should have known that any escalation in a nuclear deal or getting out of it will cost oil prices to go up despite what the arabs will say. rising to quote as if iraq gets out of the market so that's extremely extremely problematic so what's going to happen to trounce constituency for the mid-term elections they're going to see it at the gas the gas stations so all in all it was not a good move it was not a good people this yet and it is by far the biggest slap in the face for

american allies particularly europeans that's more so than t.p.m. perry climate and that's where i want to go mahmoudiya that's ego allies here when you when you saw. and you saw. mitt was a merkel and we had boris johnson going to the white house with hat in hand quite humiliating ok. the allies there and this is this is real money for the europeans and they actually did enter the iranian market the the american companies were intimidated even though the u.s. was still in the deal this is a very interesting breaking point i don't think the europeans have much spine yet but i mean this may help them grow a spine go ahead mohammed. well i am i am skeptical that they will grow a spine because the way in which they were humiliated in front of trump and the fact that they tolerated it was was extraordinary i mean the dandruff flick i mean it was it was really disturbing in a way but. something that was mentioned earlier i think is was

very important in that the iranian said actually it was ayatollah harmony two three years ago during the negotiations he said that if the united states acted in good faith with regards to the negotiations and the nuclear deal and implementing it then we could start begin start talking about other issues as well he said that in a public speech but what did the united states do they did the exact opposite as soon as the nuclear deal was signed the united states under obama began to violate it and under trump they continued that and now trump says that no work the iranians are going to come back to the negotiating table which is absolutely i'm not settle for two reasons one is because the issues that want to put on the table for example iran's missile defense if it wasn't for iran's missile defense then the united states would be able to attack iran and secondly iran's presence in syria and iraq iran knows that if it pulls out of syria and iraq then the extremists would be able

to reemerge again and then we would have a national security threat so let me let me jump in here are simple let me but in addition to that hang on the issue they only go to would we go to adel before we go to the break here adele i had the impression the speech was written by the israeli foreign ministry what do you think twenty seconds before we go to the break. well i think this radius are make it be making this noise since in the mid ninety's. it's actually happening chords that i don't think that drum had this sort of why he thought. that you know it would be a good idea if he actually forgot to speak or a general going to jump in here we're going to go to your break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the broken deal with the round stayed with our.

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ruling classes protect themselves. with the flaming merry go round to listen to the one percent. we can all middle of the room stick. to my room when you really need. twenty forty you know bloody revolution of. the demonstrations going from being relatively peaceful political protests to be increasingly violent revolution is always spontaneous or is it you know we hear it but i mean you know i live with to do a clue me in the new bill is that i do believe me to the former ukrainian president recalls the events of twenty four to. those who took part in this to do over five billion dollars to assist ukraine in these enough to ensure you are and prosperous

and democratic. welcome back to crossfire all things considered i'm peter lavelle you were discussing the broken deal with iran. let me go back to you in pittsburgh donald trump claims and his cronies around him like peo in john john bolton you know that iran was in violation the fact of the matter is that the united states now that is in violation of that internationally signed agreement minutes not pointed out enough in mainstream media what is the significance of the fact that iran will stay in the deal with the other signatories because right before we heard noises and and whispers that you know iran would pull

out of it completely and it stays in it it really puts a lot of pressure on the united states. that is the odd man out in this so that it's really flipped over iran was always the odd guy out now it's the u.s. at least when it comes to global opinion go ahead in pittsburgh. hillary right frankly united states did that to isolate iran by the consequence of it which also greatly depends on what you want will do in the coming weeks and coming months. what actually if you will isolate the united states here's what we have to keep in mind romney this sound and sound part of why this you particularly articulated by president rouhani right after two o'clock white house briefing on tuesday is that we're all saying it's you know we're trying to work with the europeans to see what's going to happen the supremes leader of iran by pessimism also reiterated that point what does this mean if iran stays in the deal and if iran does that in the long run. what will happen is it will distance away the europeans away probably washington and that's important for iraq also at the same time let's look at the

economic ramifications the united states was trying to get iran in a way by getting out of the deal but it actually really hit the europeans because if the europeans even get out of what will happen they will get replaced by the russians and the chinese as we're seeing it today on the ground into iraq. you know mom and expand upon that because you know this is a diplomatic opening for russia and china something that the neo-cons and supreme surround trump is probably probably abhors but you know i get the sense you've lived in the united states before you know that do they actually think these things out the consequences of their actions here because i have the impression that the neo cons that wrote that speech for him they probably were laughing up the sleeve that he actually said it and at the same time the same people that important during the campaign are still plotting to get rid of him i mean it's really truly amazing he does their bidding but he's still going to be undermined by them it's quite extraordinary and i want to talk a little bit about israel as well go ahead bomb and. i think that first of all to

add on to what was said before i think iran has made a smart move to wait at least a few weeks is be is to is putting the focus on the united states if you ron had withdrawn immediately then everyone would have said the u.s. . and iran both pulled out but now the the humiliation for the united states is is reinforced this way and there is an opportunity for the europeans to do something i'm not optimistic and i think ultimately all fall apart but still i think that was a smart move by iran i think in addition to that trump the another serious mistake that trump made was that he is banking or he is hoping that iran will be forced to come to the table i explain a couple of reasons before but what i'd like to add is that the very fact that the united states has violated this agreement and the fact that it has not abided by the agreement is the biggest reason why you run simply can't negotiate with the

united states more because the iranians know that if they appeal to the united states they'll do the same thing over and over again so it's a useless move to sit down and talk with americans so right now basically what the americans have done i think the problem going back to what you're asking the problem is that i think about ideology of american exceptionalism americans think that everyone wants to be with the americans because we are better than everyone else so deep down the iranians want us so they don't recognize that if they if they shut their doors at the europeans are unable to stand up to the united states and they want to remain feeble and weak in the eyes of the international community the doors to russia and china are open and the relationship between iran russia and china will improve and ironically since russia is being demonized by the west and being sanctioned by the west at the same time and china is increasingly being demonized and punished through tariffs in and sanctions the

americans themselves are pushing these three countries together together and once you do that it's not easy to to reverse that process yes they are bringing them together and once that the these countries grow closer any country oh. all countries once they move closer to each other for a number of years then it's almost impossible to reverse it del that's a very good point that mohamed makes because you know dealing in good faith i mean you know why would the chinese want to make a grand bargain with the united states and say on trade or why would russia want to come to the table and talk about arms control if the next president can. flip the decisions of its predecessor i mean this is why these kind of agreements are very important this was to the united nations you know the way it's portrayed in the united states it's almost as if it was bi lateral and it wasn't ok i don't know what what influence in saudi arabia and israel play in this decision because there are so probably the only two major characters in the world that are happy about

this outside of the circle that surround donald trump go ahead adele. yeah i was checking actually yesterday after they made for me i was checking the reaction in the region and it seems to be the united arab emirates the saudi arabia israel egypt and the whole sort of gulf or camp that they were making the noises when they were not part of the negotiation that led to that nuclear deal in the first place. i think the israelis still stands here coincidental but it's been a long sort of pushing by the arab side the saudi arabia into. because yesterday there were some ballistic missiles fired from by hoess from yemen the iranian made intercepted in saudi arabia and i think this is sort of what part

this we are unhappy about also the various arab regimes who have been supporting the so-called. rebels in syria who are just merely limits the feel also that the balance has been tipped to because of the russian involvement and because of the iranian involvement so it's actually various aspects of it better but again you see we seem to be giving the trump administration more credit in planning some strategies that it isn't really a trump is personally appeasing his own constituencies for pulling an election promise and if he managed to pull the hat a rabbit out of the hat on korea and we have seen how jubilant who is today with the release of these three prisoners from there and he would say are my tougher stance work with korea why should work with well i mean so we have to watch you

have. a bit of dell i agree with you but i think the north koreans are going to want to make sure the chinese and the raw. sions are guarantors to any kind of agreement because if this is got to be worried that you know you one country that doesn't have nuclear weapons you pull out an agreement in a unit trust a country that does have i mean this is not being very well thought through let me go to you in pittsburgh i think it's really important we don't know what the to rand's ultimate decision is going to be i think we all agree that having a cooling off period maybe a few weeks a few months to decide what to do but let's say just for example but they walk away from the agreement as well and and there is there will be a little gold no longer be inspections they'll be able to go and do what they want and that should be israel's worst nightmare but you know that netanyahu is world but what i do worry about and what i think is so shameful about the u.s. pulling out of this deal that it is a an assault on nonpolitical political ration of nuclear weapons look at the saudis look who's run in that shop over there it's not unlikely it's not unreasonable that

if you don't know what iran's going to do you're going to develop your own nuclear weapon we already have a new killer israel i mean we have we could have a regional arms race that is like that is the last thing the region needs to be worrying about the politicization of nuclear weapons across the board go ahead and in pittsburgh you're right peter absolutely you're right on the money here is a problem and this is the broader issue let's forget about let's forget about let's forget about it for a second this is a year altogether for this amendment and n.p.t. the consequences are it's probably going to be one of the most consequential decisions that trump has made and it's not going to be just felt within the middle east region by the across the globe it's going to be extremely problematic but also i want to say that i don't i don't want to generalize the israelis were also the saudis we got that on the album in tel aviv and then b.s. and we are so these people seem to be making

a lot of noise and at least yap about falling apart by you at least for the time being but i think. and within israeli national security establishment as well as with the saudis national security establishment. they're extremely worried they're not happy about this because too much politics and the politics is all to be the stabilizing the region big time and on the north koreans the north koreans are buying time we don't know what the deal is going to look like we just have to look at what the president trying to accomplish and simple but we don't know what the north koreans have been doing just this is extremely complex if there was going to say they were going to sign the deal they would have done it in the past not going to do that so they're just buying time what i think china is quite happy about ok well you know today i think it's really interesting we have to really unpredictable characters here we have the north korean regime and from but i mean that's an interesting mix it will see how it plays out actually i'm more optimistic with every passing day that something's going to be done with north korea because i think the chinese are going to be

a guarantor and the russians will go along with it and i think you know we could make progress there but you know you know we've seen the past year mohamed i'll give you the last minute here kind of reiterate forests. what is the feeling inside of iran right now because we knew that the hardliners were always against this now is there some kind of consolidation of how to approach is because like you pointed out the iran that is today is much stronger given all the pressure from the west than it was when it even signed the agreement forty seconds go ahead. yes i think that trump has brought about a great deal of national unity and i think people recognize that the united states is cannot be trusted at all and that i think strengthens the country in addition while there will be economic difficulty i think that the iranians see that saudi arabia is bleeding itself to death in yemen and with the it with its other policies and despite the large amount of israeli propaganda things are not going well on the

border with syria where these are now figuring out that there are iron dome is not working despite all the things that they're trying to say through the western media and they recognize that iran syria russia and their regional allies has it will all have been able to bring syria back to stability ok i think that you know they're really we're angry about we've run out of time gentlemen many thanks to my guests and to around london and in pittsburgh and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time and remember crosstalk rolls. ministry's please schools isn't city administrations of many countries depend on one corporation in the us but mike will be one of. the this is going to come

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