there has to be an effort to. that country and the leader of that country. we have a responsibility for the. weekend to make rules for. those without us there. hello and welcome to crossfire for all things considered i'm peter lavelle is the middle east stumbling towards a region wide war it sure looks like it trumps decision to withdraw from the iran

nuclear deal and set into play a cascade of events difficult to manage and control does anyone gain from this impending cataclysm. crosstalk in the middle east i'm joined by my guest joe laurie in washington he's the editor in chief of consortium news dot com and author of how i lost my hillary clinton with the forward by julian assange also in washington we have joe he is a fellow at the arab center washington d.c. and in london we have jonathan steele he's an international affairs commentator all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means he can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate joe lauria let me go to you first in washington i'm titling this program stumbling into war you know the more i think about the events that are unfolding in front of us are so many different angles to look at how a possible conflict could come about what worries you the most in the wake of.

decision to walk away from the nuclear deal with iran go ahead joe lauria in washington what worries me most are true words john and bolton yes john bolton the national security advisor has been has been making speeches and writing articles for years about regime change in iran he backs this group which was on the terrorism list state department terrorism list he now is in the passenger seat with a very unsteady driver and netanyahu has one hand on the wheel netanyahu has been able to manipulate trump very easily i think like taking candy from a baby with that ridiculous stage performance where he claimed iran was restarting their nuclear weapons program they all know except maybe trump that that's all rubbish that the i.a.e.a. has certified that they were they were complying with the deal this is why there's been so much hysteria in europe and they tried not grown came to washington they all failed he pulled out why the pull out one could only imagine is because they

are planning a regime change in iran and i think we're seeing all the signs of that you know one hour after trump made that speech in which he said he was getting out of the deal the israelis massively bombed iranian targets inside syria according to time magazine one hour later that's the message that was sent so while the attacks made against iran maybe just in syria now there's no question in my mind that when the military directive that trump also gave to the defense department to prepare against any threat by iran they were going down a very very dangerous road here ok it's go to their second joe and why he didn't how do you assess what joe lauria just said right there because it all of the hallmarks of you know i feel like we're back in two thousand and three looking at the how the media is dealing with this here i mean the massacre of palestinians of the last few days and the way the media described it it was a conflict is it was some kind it was equal to equal sides i mean. joe wrote

a great article it's called consorting don't use us media white washes gaza gaza massacre is perfect because that's exactly what happened so joe what do you think that this is a preamble to some form of regime change. in turan go ahead joe. i mean i get it i get it with the others this but i don't agree that we are both to to have a regime change in the regime change in iran or a wider regional confrontation yes there are some if you use the word on trial they're trying basically to accelerate potential with the iran or the pressure on iran basically to create this alliance between with between netanyahu and some of the arab states basically to put pressure on the you know that's the series of steps taken in the past few weeks between the strikes in syria the nuclear deal the sanctions. possible something in yemen. you have elections also in lebanon who allowed iran also to flex its muscle somehow in other

countries but i don't think that our boat we are in two thousand and six we had nothing in this this. coming from the top of the spaciousness over you know but the posture on the ground didn't change we didn't seem well at all i think i think but i think things are changing and i think they're changing very rapidly we have to withdraw the u.s. were drawing from the nuclear deal we have has a ball coming out very well in lebanon we have a surprise in iran and iraq which will we could see seeing a lot of iraq from the united states and possibly iran as well whether it's a lot more complicated in the media's pre-training and a lot of things are happening on the ground let me go to jonathan steele in london also i really like the analogy that joe lauria gave you know how who's got their hand on the driver's sering wheel because we do have it seems patently clear to me that israel and saudi arabia in tandem would really. i like to see trump do

something a ban against iran i mean they may not do it themselves but they're certainly egging on the president to do it in the rhetoric that's coming out of his administration is just unbelievable i mean it it really it's two thousand and three on steroids to answer our second show and watch it and i'm not saying it's going to happen next week or next month ok but it's they're building towards it jonathan in london go ahead and say well i think to pull it out of the nuclear deal for two reasons one was to we impose sanctions that gave an excuse to ramp up sanctions not only u.s. sanctions but intimidating the europeans to cut their dealings with iran to syria to kind of slow motion. color revolution they want to have they've already have their big demonstrations earlier in the year in iran are very economic issues mainly and then if they want to you know if they want more demonstrations like that so they can kill the iranian economy and get people out into the street they think there's a chance that they can topple iran through a sort of color revolution the second reason was to provoke if you like the hawks

in target in the course there are who never liked nuclear deal to do something stupid which would give a kind of funny justification for israel to bomb all the nuclear sites in iran so i think there's no danger of a u.s. ground invasion of iran right i think it's this kind of color revolution provocation and allowing the israelis to find an excuse to bomb ok joe lauria it seems to me that the europeans are beating their chests and. making a lot of statements that we have to go on our own and we don't we can't merkel says we can't look to washington protect us that's really bluster because they have painted themselves in the corner since the end of the cold war they've basically defanged themselves castrated themselves they're going to have to do what the trump administration wants here what's really interesting to me is what coming out of the white house is that even though the u.s. has withdrawn they demand that iran honor the nuclear deal this could. really quite

amazing well if the europeans are going to end up being spineless as we i predicted they will be iran is going to start thinking about other options here maybe going back starting its program but it has assets in the region that they can use a and they can show that they can push back against the united states in an asymmetrical way this is something i worry about go ahead joe laurie and washington . first i agree with jonathan said i think they would prefer a regime change through a color revolution and not war but that that's on the cards if necessary as far as the europeans go if so or twice since the cold war since the end the second world war a once in one thousand sixty seven hundred goal pulled out of nato and then of course in two thousand and three as you were bringing up peter the europeans are not vote the germans and the french are on the security council of course the french are always on the security council they didn't vote for bush is a resolution to invade iraq and that became a big crisis those are the two main times when europe showed some independence

against added states this is the third opportunity and unfortunately i agree with you and with alexander mccurry as road in the durand that i republished in that sort of news that the market the iranian market is much smaller than the u.s. market and the economics of it are going to determine that europe will go along with the us unfortunately although this is an opportunity for europe in my view which has had until recently anyway the best social system probably ever devised but now it's been under the pressure of neoliberal economics particularly with a guy like emanuel macron in france but that this is a chance for europe to be neutral to be independent to be neutral from both nonaligned if you will between russia and the u.s. and to lead the way but it's just that the will is not there you know they've made a lot of noises about standing up to the u.s. when push comes to shove i think they will cave and it's going to be because of economic reasons and that's very unfortunate ok let's go to the second joe in washington. i'm going to stand in the position that they will cave so that

essentially means they're going to abstain ok. how is iran going to react to all this because joe was already pointed out is and i'm in jonathan that the hardliners in turan are quite probably happy there this is something they didn't like the deal in the first place and they're going to have to start thinking in terms of defending themselves because we do have american troops in iraq in syria supporting the saudis in yemen and we have i pointed out also has flaws come out on top here in lebanon that it's a powder keg here so how do you think iran's going to react to all of this it does have some strong cards in its hand it has some weak cards go ahead joe. i mean it has a strong goods but i know that there's an iran and. we don't see you i mean eve basically came out very strong against against the u.s. we didn't see a two thousand and six kind of rhetoric so what's happening is there is some kind

of iran. u.s. deal sisters of fourteen and both iraq and libya all of those these loved the still of the police the local flotation of this going to the some of them basically to share power so for the two the two sides to change what change the rules what changed. i don't want this. as the cornerstone of a tacit understanding with with iran if iran doesn't change her regional behavior so i'm going to basically go back to the previous order but does that mean the kind of sharing power between between the two is not. obvious and beirut in and but the other places so this well i don't see this rhetorical as very we are on the verge of world think big but i think you know yes the people but it has said it's still early days and we do have the iranians on a charmed

a tour around the world with the chinese with the russians and the europeans and it isn't done yet so we don't know what direction it's going to go go ahead finish your point. i know but i mean the issue now is they're going to give the iranians are not talking to each other so they are talking to each other through the europeans so both the americans of the iranians to pressure the europeans though this is why we're out in a very crucial weeks though but that doesn't mean that if it's fatal the europeans thought that the muse were going to go down the call for additional war i think in the u.s. the mood in the army in the public that was called for it they should go but there's ok it's ok but joe joe joe height of the gesture done before civil war we go to the break here the u.s. has already been threatening the european companies with sanctions ok i don't see any dodgy law going on there ok all right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here of the press and we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the middle east stay with our team.

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welcome back to crossfire where all things considered i'm peter lavelle remind you we're discussing the middle east. ok let's go back to jonathan in london and quite sadly as the proxy civil war in syria is winding down we have more. growing passions in the

middle east here with trump's decision here how what role do you think syria is going to play in all of this because syria as a sovereign government sovereign state a member of the united nations has invited russia and the iranians in his advisors and more to protect their sovereignty here is this going to be the epicenter here because this is where the israelis can snipe at the iranians and they already are doing it and if we have this cooling off period from this decision that's made because like i pointed out the iranians are on a charm offensive if they don't get anything out of that charm offensive they may decide to do other things and do you think that syria is going to be the epicenter where we could see a simmering conflict get warmer and until it gets hot go ahead jonathan well i want to talk about iraq in a minute but let me first mention your central question was. syria i think this is

the danger is that if something happens on the golan heights area in southwestern syria as we've already seen that could escalate and then has been or could come in with its right massive amount of rockets in southern lebanon that is the big danger if israel provokes and gets a response that it may in fact want to have if it wants war with lebanon that could be very dangerous for the region but i think it's important to talk about iraq because you can't really very important developments have happened that's one of the best pieces of good news for iraq in several years is the victory of mocked outside in the election i mean here's a nationalist he's very anti iran he's very anti the u.s. he stands for non intervention by either of those two countries in his country iraq that's really important and the paradox is that you may actually get secret talks between the iranians and the americans to try and prevent. having the real choice of who becomes the next iraqi prime minister i think both turn around and

washington would like. the present prime minister to carry on they will work their way through these back door negotiations to form a new cabinet so you could actually have cooperation alone won't be admitted publicly between turning around and washington over the future of iraq that's a very good point john when we go to joe lauria here nor nominally and under normal circumstances i would completely agree with jonathan but i think in the wake of triumph decision there is a trust deficit and that's saying something because the united states and iran have had enormous amounts of distress ever since the one nine hundred seventy nine revolution here but i don't see the iranians want to doing the americans any favors right now the the americans have dug themselves the deepest possible holes when it comes to iraq and afghanistan here so this could be more of a bargaining chip with the iranians and in some fashion or another go ahead joe laurie in washington. first to put it on the record neither peter nor i said we're on the verge of award. you know yes i'm not saying that i'm not saying the u.s.

or that you're right no no i'm just going back to we talked before and also you know your question was never answer about what iran might do the head of the answer to this nuclear program still a said that today i'm sorry on tuesday he said that they would start to route to enrich again stronger than before was the words he used now as far as whether the iranians i think johnson has a point there because it's not just doing the americans a favor they don't want. to have power in iran and iraq either because that would. possibly diminish iran's influence in iraq so they do they would have a common ground to work and to forget even but after the ninety seven revolution in iran ronald reagan worked with iran in the iran contra scandal so there's nothing just precluded in real politic though we have john bolton who's an idealogue of course and you know con so that may or may not happen but it's something to consider that iraq would be a problem for both countries but that would not stop. them to drive towards regime

change in iran even if they cooperate on iraq and it's go to the second joe in washington you know what the the paradox here is that there is no evidence that the iranians really had a serious nuclear weapons program but they signed the deal for for sanctions relief the i.a.e.a. certified that they were in compliance of course and then we have trumpets as it was the worst deal in history and they withdraw from it and now it looks like the iranians may possibly return to firing up their centrifuges i mean the then they'll say look we're going after the bomb i mean you can't win for losing in this type of logic here and then throw in the saudis saying well we'll go for the bomb too i mean the the administration did not and i used the word cascade effect in my introduction this is what's happening we could have an arms race here and then we already have a nuclear power in the moon. lisa knox named israel here i mean before we didn't

have it we weeks a week ago two weeks ago we didn't see the possibility of an arms race now we do go ahead joe in washington. i mean i know we are caught up in the moment now with the with all of the don't see we're going to build this structure that iran is has has doesn't need a nuclear weapon at this point it never asked for it this was part of the action to be on the table with the with the international powers know that's an attempt to change the dynamic but iran is basically cough the bullet with where they are now in syria and iraq and libya and they don't need to go into a reasonable from station or. to the. race as your mission yes make sure the you know they make sure that if it's you know i agree with joe i. just hang on for say i agree with you i mean i think the radians are happy with the status quo it's the rhetoric that's coming out of washington that threatens that status quo and if i were in the interim i would

start reacting to this kind of bombastic ideologically driven. aggression you know you have people like bolton ok i'm not worried about what the iranian you know the revolutionary guards are saying i'm more worried about what john bolton is saying go ahead joe. it's empty rhetoric since one year you have michael flynn of the still of the podium saying we put on notice oh this little rhetorical for the day and then make the us french american the british like that if it gets close to the if it gets close to i think that's moving right i don't really know know if this is this i'm sorry i mean remember the rhetoric of two thousand and three joe it was that this words and guess who was around joke john bolton was around so i tend to have a memory here and so does that leave me at the foot of the road changes the us

changed. that mindset change as you are going to vote in this mindset change no it hasn't i agree with the what's important i don't think it. is not that important it's better not it's better not to underestimate people like that in the other people might pompei oh these other people that are surrounding trump here. you know we got it jonathan here go you want to react to this here go ahead. well i think i turned to all that to agree that one shouldn't overdo the rhetoric thing there's a big step between rhetoric and action and of course these are hardliners they would love to see a different regime in tehran but the question is how are they going to achieve it so i come back to my first point i think they're in a slow motion regime change agenda not a fast motion one they want calling evolution they want a collapse of the economy they want sanctions to bite they want to israel to keep putting the military pressure on the table but they're willing to wait two three five years maybe they're not coming in tomorrow but joe you were disagreeing

earlier i'd like to put in a cab here is it. we're after this charm offensive that i've mentioned already twice i don't think it's going to come to anything here but the iranians do have the opportunity to turn to china and russia and russia has certainly been interested in that the chinese is well i mean it. is just going to have to completely give up on the west we i'd like to remind our viewers you know opinion polls global opinion polls year after year iranians are quite pro-american that is changing right now as the population go ahead joe. well first of all i think we're not just seeing rhetoric missing action here and out of this nuclear deal which is the absolutely absolutely worst thing that trump has done is done many stupid things this is by far the worst the most dangerous thing he did this is action i agree with jonathan that they prefer a regime change by overthrowing the government but with some groups on the ground that they can control or influence rather than going to war it is no doubt about

that but they are not taking i think war off the table there's no timetable here of three to five years maybe too long truck may be gone in two years is going to be an election so this is a truly dangerous situation right here as far as china goes there's an interesting article in the washington post you know they rarely interesting the way it ended it's explained our china is just ignoring all these threats from the u.s. and they're going to continue of course to trade with iran because they don't trade in dollars for one thing and they're going to avoid american financial institutions to try to evade some kind of sanctions and that europe in fact may want to work with china as a middleman to continue to work with iran i'm not sure that would would work or how would work but the article ended by saying the u.s. may be the country that finds itself being isolated itself rather than isolating iran so. china does play a huge role in this and i think we have to look at that in terms of how these sanctions might be evaded and the penalties that the u.s. might try to put on europe i think still think that could happen even if the traits

were china they might find say air bus or other companies right if they continue to sell their wares through to iran well germany siemens is already come out they've caved they're afraid of the u.s. treasury here let me let me go to our second joe here how how much does riyadh in tel aviv drive all of this i mean you know i've used the word char many times in this program but i mean trump seems so very charmed by the saudis and by bibi netanyahu go ahead joe. i mean what i said there's nothing to do this alone is between between the u.s. and israel and saudi arabia. the us goes back to. the interesting part is the saudis and this radio doesn't care much about directly or via the they care about deterring iran and they want the us to do with not themselves mostly but the us is mostly focused on of the deal at this point not on you who is using this this card basically to take a green light to a lot of the from the as

a basically do. some air strike against against israel which is by the way approved by both the us and russia was a stroke because it happened and following netanyahu visit to one of the titles i don't know i went i wouldn't say russia agreed russia might not be able to do anything about it there's a big difference between the two ok last word here ten second show last word for you. no i mean to the the point is i don't think we're going to go from station no this the attempt to get to iran already away level ok might be tense period for the coming weeks but i don't i think it is a very tense create and i think it's only going to get worse because we don't have leadership in the world right now in either real leadership in the u.s. or in europe it's going to fall in the model middle east that's it gentlemen many thanks to my guest in washington in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time and remember.

when else shows seem wrong. why don't we all just don't call. me all the things yet to shape out this day atika. and in detroit equals betrayal. when something find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. in twenty forty you know bloody revolution to include the demonstrations going to be relatively peaceful political protests to be creasing the violent revolution is always spontaneous or is it your style or here. is put me in the.

new school in the middle of the former ukrainian president recalls the events of twenty fourteen. those who took part in this today over five billion dollars to assist ukraine in these an article that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic. across europe municipalities are taking their water supply back from private companies to meet the social simple song alone events like on the biggest elsewhere though they invite private companies to take over their utilities anybody tell us that. miss you guys we got. to go. this is. for you man but the lift hill brought up locals are ready to stand up for the basic human right of access to water it's about water but it's also over much more and

more it's about the hurt and the redistribution of. their debt downwards we want. to get the latest official so for them to. see that if it. was for a flight that many of the european union turns on donald trump like using the u.s. leader of not being much of a friend for pulling out of iran nuclear deal plus. israel is an occupier and it keeps terrorizing the turkish president announces the israeli military's deadly response to the palestinian protests deep anger at israel on the united states see protests are prosti our world. are two years from doctors in chaos and.