many clubs over the years so i know the game and so i got. the ball isn't only about what happens on the pitch for the final school it's about the passion from the families it's the age of the superman to kill you know and spending to twenty million. it's an experience like nothing else not to because i want to show what i think what i know about the beautiful guy was great to watch. the thinks he's going to.

follow and welcomed across time for all things considered i'm peter lavelle the transatlantic relationship has had many ups and downs since its inception after the second world war it is said this relationship is whether these moments of tensions and differences due to american leadership enter donald trump can the transatlantic relationship survive the current occupant in the white house. crosstalk in the transatlantic relationship i'm joined by my guest michael maloof in washington he is a former senior security policy analyst in the office of the secretary of defense in london we have been he is a professor of international politics at city university london and in oxford we crossed him on calm and he is the director of the crisis research institute sorry gentlemen crosstalk roles in effect that means you can jump in any. i mean want i

always appreciate let me go to mark first in oxford on skype you know mark on. these last few programs i keep betraying my age when i can remember a good part of the history of the transatlantic relationship and they've been ups and downs they've been policy differences we can think of vietnam we can think of the illegal invasion and occupation of iraq during the reagan administration it was interim idiot missiles and they've pretty much been resolved those were problems i get the impression now that it's turning into divisions that about values and and what with the position of each in the world because the europeans after all these decades have pretty much tied themselves to the united states and have very limited options and they're not very happy about it is this a crisis of ideology and values now not just policy issues mark in oxford but i think it's a mixture of that it's a crisis of early as well as a big difference disagreement about what is important and what should be principles

between paris on one side and washington on the other shore so it's also about valuables in many ways the atlantic alliance from the late forty's on which was one in which the united states was to create economic crisis for security and geopolitical advantage and so the marshall plan which meant that the worst trade imbalances were valued. they were going to work in economies and initiate expensive and states but overall everybody benefited now trump is saying it has to be a cost benefit analysis on that basis and putting america first means america has to come out on top and of course in schools the serious problems to european industry finance in general because some sort of spend most of the works at all since their actions are going to rome do sanctions on russia and so on which have a big effect and then also try. to cuba it's a view of the world which the european leagues and which simply repeated media regards with horns court record. so there's

a problem and ends but we the british are supposed to so. they find themselves challenge to you know a plea to challenge to some extent on what is probably except we're here of course couldn't go on tweeting about things in britain murder going against the grain of. it if i can stay with stay with me the british isles here. if the issue the very top of this we have the randi or the u.s. withdrew from but it seems to me that that is an archetype of the problems of the transatlantic relationship right now because the europeans are being told that they have to pay an economic price when they're staying in the deal in iran it wants to stay in the deal to i mean it seems you know a bit large on the part of the united states saying well since we don't want to be part of it you shouldn't be part of it and this gets down to really kind of sovereignty at least e.u. sovereignty i'd like to talk a little bit about energy as well but i mean the europeans are being asked to go against their best interests and almost every single way and this is causing a great deal of tension go ahead in london. i think you know you've summarized the

position in some respects but i do not think that is a kind of fundamental breach i think the europeans are clearly unhappy the one major diplomatic success if you like they can claim was the iran nuclear agreement and they're very upset at the united states withdrawal from it but on the other hand their ideas about iran and iran's regional power and it politico missile testing they don't differ very much so i think they they would appear to be a big tactical difference here. and so i would have what i would argue is that at the at the core of transatlantic relations from the very beginning i don't think there was ever any altruism involved there was always a position of power and a negotiation about power and power distribution so i think what the situation is now is that it's changed and to some extent there's a. negotiation of those relationships and i don't think it's only the united states

which is acting much more towards is particular national interest european powers among themselves have always a tension between the european element and their national interest so i think this is just being exacerbated at this particular time and clearly don't trump played a particular game but i think in the end the levels of interdependence between the european union europe and the united states remain very very high and i think there is a bit of upset here but i don't think there's a fundamental breach well we'll see how the tensions which are a little prone. to go to michael in washington i mean interdependency i think there's a lot more dependency than interdependency and that's what we're seeing right now and i guess fundamentally can we have a transatlantic alliance coalition as it were carry co-exist with america first and donald trump michel. well it's been it's beginning to erode what we're seeing is an

erosion and perhaps a replacement of the u.s. led unilateral world order and i think that the the breaking out of leaving the the iranian deal the j.c. p.o. way was a watershed moment for countries in asia and especially iran as well as in western europe and what we're seeing emerge now is a new geo political shift to a much more multi-polar approach and we're already seeing this just like what you probably saw in st petersburg with with the belt road initiative combined with the yes the shanghai cooperation organization and the year asia european union all beginning to come together with its membership forming this separate economic world order bloc that that's actually going to counter and respond to what donald trump has now done i think europe europe as well because of the sanctions are going to

read are going to rebel to out as as much as they can and we're going to see that they're going to want to maintain that trade with with with iran as well as with the other countries in that and that region of the world the whole idea because the united states insists upon having the israeli policy interfere with every foreign policy decision that makes it's actually going to it's actually beginning to shift away from that and we're seeing that already you know you know market the it seems that you know there's a perception i've heard this many times is the united states is treating its its friends worse than its enemies i mean it's centrally going down the track of threatening to sanction european countries and their companies and this is getting i you know i think it's the first time in the in the transatlantic alliance experience where you know the sovereignties really seems to be in and is being infringed upon i mean. threatening companies that you know it be you financial

transactions you know it's forcing companies to start trading in other currencies so the the the us treasury department can't go after you i mean is that what do you need tell allies are supposed to be worried about from the united states now i mean this is a new dilemma but this coalition this a lion says a facing go ahead mark well i can show my boss i do remember when it was a snapshot of for now with all of the u.s. attempt to prevent the export of that in soviet past western europe you have a very british companies taking part in that and so the president's the point is that in those cases quite quickly the common interest and who rode the divisions like found a way around it whereas today we face the prospect of drop from could be good wasn't in office who are going to this time it could be remembered it and he continues with these policies he's really challenging the your opinion sense of self esteem in the one area where they feel like a great power yes the e.u.

is a geopolitical pygmy is that military pygmy but he is a trading superpower germany afterwards for small the united states imports from us a lot of exports so germany and china for instance and also the countries like japan have an economic common interest in the why the world which trump is trying to unsettle because he was he wants to cut back dramatically the u.s. trade deficit that actually means. to the extent of his key partners as well as the potential geopolitical right who are trying to so we really have structural changes taking place maybe all these decades of cooperation all the cultural contrasts between west and the united states in the broader west will somehow to mitigate this but i have a feeling that in the end it will be dollars and cents that yeah you know internet let me go back to you in london i mean we were right before trump with you from the iran deal we had boris johnson visiting we had it many emmanuelle. mccrum visiting with trump as well and i think that they were expecting some kind of negotiation

like the allies and friends are supposed to do and they they returned home empty handed in the meantime angela merkel has visited putin twice and gone to china she didn't even go to washington there is a perception at least on this side of the pond is that the united states isn't interested in negotiations it's more interested in dicta do it or else go ahead in london while actually merkel did go to washington d.c. and what we are taught from them for withdrawal years along with the crime for example just after mccrone was given a slightly different kind of treatment i think is a really it is a very complicated question and i think to some extent there's a there's a kind of broad long term shift going on in the kind of global geopolitics and geo economics and i think then there are these kind of tactical transactional isms which trump is championing and i think to some extent trump is being criticized but

i in the end he's standing up for what he believes he's the american and he's being any he's keeping his promises let's keep that in mind that we shouldn't be surprising ok he said this on the campaign trail keep going keep going yes and i think what i would say about that to you is is that i think a large part of this is really a sort of tactical power play as much dicked directed at home it is a political base to try to show them that he is standing up for the united states the key thing that he had promised to really that america first was going to do for them was to basically give them back economic and other home and i don't think actually any of this is going to help that core base of tall so in the end effectively it's a big theater and i think the levels of the amounts of money we're talking about here in god to the kind of sanctions on on trade or trade tariffs or whatever is relatively small. he couldn't but i think ok and i did see things small now and

trade wars usually start small here gentlemen we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the transatlantic relationship say with our. i don't think that we should get above all cells i mean on bred to be british but we are not a superpower and we should not pretend that we are as people we haven't got an empire anymore nor should we have one so i think there's a limit to what britain can achieve on its own what we what we can achieve is is work together to to build world peace through working with other countries we're

going to do it is this a burden on our runs. for a man or sitting in a car when the phipps gets shot in the head. all for different versions of what happened one of them is on the death row there's no way he could have done it there's no possible way because the list did not shoot around a corner. i think that donald trump is really confident about his capacities ability to persuade people and the power of his personality and all this kind of things and i'm sure that comes on going we'll try to play this card we'll try to give donald trump something he can tweet so he can he can show to everyone look i'm the first

one i'm the one who rolls the art of the deal i'm the first one can make a deal with this guy what every other american president before me failed i succeeded. welcome back to crossfire we're all things are considered i'm peter we're discussing the transatlantic relationship. we're going to go back to michael in washington one of the interesting questions that have arisen that is hasn't given his isn't good much come. the bridge is the energy politics and energy security that includes the the u.k. the rest of europe the united states and interestingly and importantly russia here and germany is very much in the center of it with the north stream pipeline the second one that's going to be being built and the americans are pretty perfuse slee against this pipeline because they want to import or export to europe very

expensive ellen g. and the germans are resist resisting it and they could face sanctions as we talk announcements could be made this is a very important issue because germany and the european union are actually defacto being denied the ability to determine their energy security it's the u.s. wants to dictate that go ahead michael. well it has to do with russian dominance of it and that's the problem and the u.s. as you point out is a johnny come lately to this the in wanting to ship l.n.g. or liquefied natural gas but the problem for the united states is it only has one port in louisiana that can export and secondly most of the european countries except those along the coast have any elegy capabilities the countries that really really need this kind of gas there are much much more internally and and certainly germany as well but the pipeline structures that exist right now and are being built. up with russian dominance if you will is what irritated in the near cons

here in washington and certainly the trumpet ministration so it's a johnny come lately effort and i i don't think it's going to succeed and they need natural gas now because when it is not all that far away and that they have to have a reliable source and you're going to you're going to see more and more of these countries integrating themselves apart from the united states because of this activity and energy is just one aspect of that whole geo political shift that we're that we're seeing emerge at this point you know let me go back to oxford mark again if it gets down to being able to make sovereign decisions i mean i mean i don't think you have to be very ideological or very partisan to the question well why should a country that's on the other side of the planet determine your energy policy when you have a neighbor that wants to provide energy in a reasonable price and your companies are involved in a joint venture to build that pipeline i mean i don't see how threatening that

possibly could be except for you want the market you want the market share i get that i get that that's fine ok but it should be the europeans that ultimately make that decision mark in oxford we're. going to we're going to we can rush. decision but we can continue to schools energy but as the austrian president from the villains said great. when is that ellen g.'s only a moment ago when energy prices are high but actually because you go long term contracts with russia to receive gas you get the gas well below the price of which is why also you have this water because almost all data to contradiction in order to make what you have to create a high revenue stream for russia which makes russia stronger. but if you try to which you also have relations with iran to have your own do you push up energy prices are actually the position of the countries that you are well sold to a special strong and also you make their boutique. to customs. more

attractive so it actually is not a very clear reports it's not good. to. look at energy and we go back to change gears and i talk a little bit about nato you know ever since the end of the in the advent of the cold war in the warsaw pact we've had nato when the soviet union came to an end nato decided to stick around and look for a new mission for itself unfortunately in two thousand and eighteen i guess that mission is to vent to defend against russia but the european countries don't really want to pay for their defense they kind of like having the u.s. pick up the tab trump says you got to pay more and they still don't do it so it's kind of hard to convince publics that russia is such a threat we don't want to pay for your own defense except for poland wants to spend two billion dollars they have american troops there well why don't they just give the two billion dollars to the germans and the germans can do it form ok i mean there's a lot of possibilities there ok again countries that want want to have secure

borders particularly visa vi russia they don't want to pay for it so what how do you square the circle there go ahead in london. well i think in germany actually there are quite strong pressures from various sides of the political spectrum to to strengthen german military power. and also he's kind of much more independence stance on a number of global questions so i don't think there's an unwillingness on the part of many of the european powers with nato to increase military spending to two percent which is what they're actually committed to under do we know that there's a lot of reason there's a lot of resistance to pay to reach that two percent of g.d.p. i mean they've been talking about it for years and they're still not doing it ok what only four countries out of the out of the entire block actually do that ok i mean they still resist doing it so that doesn't count water with me no they want

something for free and then if they don't get it for free they don't want to pay for it that's not michael you but you work through the defense department. you know well i see that the first this is more on economic betterment between europe and and russia because there is a they have a major dependency there but the whole military concept is basically evaporated in favor of more economic opportunities such as in dealing with iran dealing with china dealing with with with russia i mean it's expanding and and nato as you pointed out is still an entity trying to find a new mission and they want to afghanistan for a little while they're still there but you know it's still it's it's on life support frankly and the europeans for for itself is looking internally to have its own defense mechanism and the french are pushing there pretty much and and i think

the germans because of what trump has been doing it and the way has been bludgeoned in them i think they're they're beginning to reexamine their concept but they don't see the threat that that the neo cons and trying to do from from russia from china or from or from iran as truck does ok let me go back to you in london because he didn't get to really finish your point there i mean. take do you think that there is the political will the european union for all of its problems are one of the richest places on the planet i mean it's not like it doesn't have resources has plenty of resources unfortunately a lot of them are wasted but they're still relatively rich why should they did you know. step up in it really see if they're complaining about the united states and trump why don't they just go it alone that it's not as if they don't have the resources to do it go ahead. but i think going alone is probably an viable for any major power or block today that interdependence which is built up is

very very dense the networks which are financial economic political security intelligence as well as people to people ideas in every respect you look at the interdependencies of of major global pillars they are very very great they're not going anywhere you can try to shake them up you can rearrange them a little bit you can renegotiate relations and i think that's what it is trying to do and some other powers are trying to do as well but i don't think you're going to get rid of the i don't think europe wants to or can go alone britain is finding itself look at the position we're in now because briggs the deal look how difficult it is to try to do anything meaningful with that because in the end you cannot just divorce yourself from a global economy and so on what you can do is try to create a sort of national conditions under which you can control the effects of globalism and i think that is what is effectively happening on

a worldwide scale because the people of the countries within like the united states and elsewhere as well they're suffering from the effects of inequality they're suffering from the fact there's unemployment because of technological change and innovation and i think people like donald trump are effectively misleading their own electorates by calling for america first and i don't think they're going to solve any of those problems but in the end that is where the. ritter is really coming from and i think that he's not going to go away and that is going to lead to a degree of national level of control i think there's going to be a renegotiation of the kind of global it ok with me to allows for i mean you know martin i mean all you say it's pretty pessimistic what you just said big it sounds like all these organizations are straight jackets you're in it and you can't get out and there's one hedge of man that will determine the rules i mean that's the same as actually what you're saying mark i mean i think that there is a political will and division i think that there could be much more. polarity i

think there could be a lot more equality in it but i don't see the political with the europeans can moan and groan all they want but they're a fact and happy with the situation the way it is and trump is going the u.s. is going to snipe at them and they won't be able to do much about it go ahead mark what also when we talk about your parents who do we mean there is the networked elite of people shareholder and government and so on who are going to come with the old order and in a sense their trunk shaking it up but also they can't imagine leaving it but then we've seen whether it's the groups how intellectually even the also from elections on huge popular unrest to dig in germany with all sorts of aspects we look down so it's a group that's what trump after all. so i think there is a crisis of the west and in a way it's something which the elites in the. struck with nato has just held its first meeting in its new purpose built courtrooms and the only more sociology that i respect is social pockets and more than any organization that moves into

a brand new purpose built headquarters will go bust within a few months and one fears that we have this kind of institutional inertia that i can't really imagine of the architect of the previous. is seeing its foundations by the very popular consent which after all was the basis of the democratic. ok my goal in watching the last forty. seconds of the program goes to you go ahead. you know i think what we're so fundamentally what we're seeing is that the erosion of that unilateral world order and it's big and it's beginning to catch up to riyadh reality is beginning to catch up to the europeans just like with theresa may she she's doing brecht's it of course that she look to the u.s. as an alternative market but because of sanctions now she's going to be looking more and more toward china and i think you're going to see that wave increasing in the coming years simply because we have this new multi-polar emerging that is kind

of just isolate in effect isolate the u.s. unless it stops its. bad people over the head all the time well we'll see we'll see if america first can co-exist with a transatlantic alliance that has existed since the second world war seems pretty incompatible to me but we'll see that's all the time we have gentlemen many thanks so much to my guests in washington london and in oxford and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t.c. a next time and remember crosstalk.

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