a fault that reverberated around the world since two thousand and five is ben a professor of economics at moscow's higher school of economics and a well connected observer of the government's policies so bloomberg asks him how does russia's economic management today differ from what it was back then and he answered that well it's much better largely because so many of the people now in charge experience that crisis for instance the head of the central bank elvira nab ilana was a deputy economy mr alexei kudrin a close putin advisor and chairman of the accounts of chamber was a deputy finance minister german graf the chief executive officer of the state controlled sperm bank was a deputy minister of state property these people want to make sure that it never happens again on their watch so long as this economic team is in charge there won't be another crisis and russia people criticize us or they question us and they want to know why we're not more quote critical of russia the real question is how come we're not tooting russia's horn more because they are been genius during this crisis but that would be i think

a little bit you know over the top to simply point out all the good things that they're constantly doing so we just try to take a more balanced middle of the road approach that's you know the fact is that they're making all these other economies look stupid by comparison certainly all biran abilene as martin gellman goes on to say he says they have really brought home the lesson of that crisis consider the oil shock of twenty fourteen and twenty fifteen as the price dropped by more than fifty percent the central bank protected its foreign reserves by allowing the rubles exchange rate against the dollar to fall politically a very brave move and they had the stabilization fund which insulates the economy from the oil market by calling excess revenue when prices are high and providing support when prices are low we mentioned on our show there are actually a lot of comments if you go back and look saying that was propaganda you know this is part of this whole cold war but they were saying it's propaganda if you watch all those news nights from that week evan davies who's an economist by the way i'm not a trained economy. he's

a trained economist he never mentioned this stuff so you have to question who is the one that got it right we got it right based on just looking at the numbers we mentioned that well you know when they had the debt crisis the ninety eight they had debt so we were asking where is the debt like show us the debt like where is the beef because they kept on saying there's going to be a debt crisis but based on what like there was no debt so we were right they were wrong and we're in a lot of lessons were learned in the late ninety's ninety eight crisis and countries started build up their reserves to give themselves a cushion against these types of fluctuations and the other thing that people should be aware of and we'll say it again and i'm sure nobody will follow up on the b.b.c. or anywhere other news outlets that russia has been a huge buyer of gold why are they doing that why is china buying so much gold is because they see that the u.s. dollar will lose global supremacy at some point and that has wide scale ramifications when it happens all these news outlets will say oh my god we never saw this coming who's who's right all this is

a paranoid conspiracy theory you know once again we're trying to alert you what's going on and give you the reasons why looking at just baseline numbers of economics i don't know evidence just what other curses see what's directly in front of your face that's a good way to put what warren buffett is courageous in that he he's willing to invest in the blindingly obvious reinvests of what we try to do is like this is blindingly obvious just state what is there well at that time when we did this report and it was to experts on both halves we had liam how again and who had lived in moscow for a long time and he was he's an economist and he's speaks on economic matters for the telegraph and we had constantine going to have another economist he was at trinity college dublin at that point now he's teaching out in california and we were i was open to hearing whatever was going to happen you know we asked them newsnight saying there's going to be a current account crisis at current and a balance of payments crisis what's going to have. up and they disagreed based on

what they're understanding of classical liberal economics and here the i.m.f. guy who went through the ninety eight he is the one in charge of the i.m.f. who dealt with the debt crisis of ninety eight and he was saying here he also says russia was right i was wrong when he says that in two thousand and four when khujand first proposed the stabilization fund on the norwegian model the i.m.f. advised against it we thought that in terms of governance transparency and corruption russia was closer to nigeria than norway so the first priority was to build the institutions before trying to be norway and by god khujand proved us wrong because they brought the nonsense they were all to propaganda that russia was closer to nigeria you know than norway no in fact russia is closer to norway and they've got the stabilization fund and the economy you know putin took the economy from under two hundred billion g.d.p. to close to two trillion in g.d.p. want to take it to four chilean in g.d.p. how do you get there through trade not through anything that rachel maddow or the

hollywood elite are suggesting that he is all paranoid lee scheming to do he's done doing any of that he just wants to grow the economy it's like remember america is to be a growth situation people used to like to grow the economy and be honest and trustworthy and that's what russia is now it's like america in the fifty's and america's become the still be a union of the fifty's it's complete role reversal actually you mentioned nigeria and this guy had mentioned nigeria and we did ask during that time because newsnight did not want to cover nigeria who actually is very close to the united kingdom and there are a lot of nigerians who move to the united kingdom. relationship there and nigeria actually did suffer greatly during the oil price collapse so their currency collapse even more they had a lot of debt they had a difficult situation at the time now it's obviously better the world oil markets have recovered and we're glad they recovered but here he's saying as regards to growth as you talk about. growth in russia he said russia is an old industrial

economy it's not one of those places where you have a lot of peasants coming into the mainstream workforce you can expect it to grow at very significant real rates particularly given that it's stuck in a world economy where nobody is growing significantly but an important aside. this is from the i.m.f. guy ok this guy is an i.m.f. official one can't know the future what if investors wake up to the financial profit to see of the u.s. and other western nations where government debts are at historical highs and budget discipline is not great after the crash who is going to look good can you name one g. twenty country with almost no debt positive real interest rates a flexible exchange rate significant foreign exchange reserves and a very prudent macroeconomic policy so you know russia's general electric and america's pets dot com you know they mean russia is generating consistent earnings growth inch by inch by inch and they manage that and it looks like

a right as mentioned debts are a low gold reserves are are building up and you know jim rogers our friend of many years has been saying this for the last ten years is been investing in russia and i would give you you know chapter and verse exactly why this has been a great economy to invest in yeah and probably the rubles probably cheap on the four x. market and it's all there later jim rickards is talked about it as. vajra here is again what he says this is also mirrors exactly what our experts in the second half constantine gird you have had said is that she was following exactly to a t what classical economics would teach you how to respond to this crisis during the financial crisis for russia two thousand and fourteen exactly the opposite of how the rest of the global central banks responded to the financial crisis of two thousand and seven to two thousand and nine he said so when abilene goes to the central bank governors meetings and basel she's the one preaching orthodoxy almost

all central banks have either negative interest rates very low interest rates or some kind of extraordinary monetary accommodation and here you've got the central bank of russia with the highest real interest rates in the g twenty they are. pursuing what the i.m.f. would call a classic conventional policy when he said that at the time that it was a classic conventional policy this is how you would respond but you can't have capitalism without capital and you can't have capital without an interest rate sufficient to attract the savers without savers you don't have an economy and that's what they're doing in russia and america also in the world there think that you don't need savers you don't need wages you don't need workers you can take interest rates down to zero you can rely entirely on mergers and acquisitions and accounting fraud is the bernie made off model in america versus you know eisenhower in russia this is the russian economic policy of the runtime is eisenhower you know that actually if you can learn from disaster so they went through

a disaster genuine disaster in ninety eight russia did and they learned from that so we went through a disaster here as well during the dot com crash and the two thousand and seven eight nine crash we could have learned a lesson what we we haven't however we just bailed out everybody and we didn't learn the hard lessons because they made it you know the central banks basically made the system not take its medicine like. if you talk to any russians that ninety eight was a brutal brutal situation and they don't want to ever repeat that here people feel like well what was so bad about it like we can repeat the crisis because it wasn't so bad and we got free money exactly right if you can tell there is no such thing as can fall sizzle if you can't have losers in a capitalist society there you don't you have some kind of socialist quagmire like venezuela which is like the us now anyway we've got to take a break and we'll come back so don't go away.

four men are sitting in a car when the phipps gets shot in the head. all four have different versions of what happened one of them is on the death row there's no way he could have done it there's no possible way because the oldest did not she ran a corner. but politicians do something to. put themselves on the line. to get accepted or

rejected. so when you want to present injury. or somehow want to be rich. it's a going to be for us to see what will befall us three in the morning can't be good . i'm interested always in the waters in the. west sydney. not. a. good. deal for lack of honest living.

welcome back to the kaiser report i'm asked as are time now to turn to chris whalen chris whalen author and banker i guess yeah hey welcome back i'm max has gone good thing cool you know you predicted trump when and now less than two years later he's he's won over the world basically he's got policies he's shaking things up he has turned over the chord table and you standing on top of that jump up on us where because all these folks like and so-called liberal elite are very very upset like a michael moore site because they've been revealed as war mongers yet the left or the worse really soros well all of them are quite amazing they they tend to be the left is quite authoritarian it's the end of today well they have to be because as margaret thatcher said eventually run out of other people's money so you've got to put a gun to people all right so first let's talk trade war your thoughts on trump's trade

war with china europe canada mexico chris domestic politics mostly he's playing to the base not only for this election coming up but for the inevitable run for a second term well markets are acting positively how's that playing well because it doesn't really matter it's marginal the us has a large trade relationship with the rest of the world but it it's going to day when we're no there and i think the change that will occur over the next few years the structural change as a result of this is going to be important of the us has been paying the freight since world war two and then we have the cold war and we had to help everyone so the europeans never really stood on their own they have not had to spend money on defense why do you just cut letterman's have the air force plan just cut a nato in half well no i don't need to cut it in half you need to make them rationalize it but what's the what's the point of it it has no use well i mean if you're going nice to another countries territory that in the us is. what's the

point of nato and that is that this function is worthless it's an extension of the old model that's correct what model well british imperialism followed by american president but i don't i mean part of europe there i think they don't want to part of the world anymore they just want to eat my mind he left. you know the empire is gone but they have pretended that it's still there and look at trump and you know queen what a great picture point is you have this american president who still really doing the bidding of the british empire one hundred years after we took the ball and i say that's obviously wrong you know the brits lost him pyar really at the end of world war one and they became they had to realize they were broke because they are a parasitic society they don't really make stuff they're not a manufacturing society would really have nothing british petroleum the city of london lloyds one of the great schemes of all time that's how they make money so now that they're with leaving be you know colony we don't think nothing they've got northern ireland they can beat up on the irish people the middleby about it they

will sail down to falklands again now they won't be deploying power in the state it's a good job the falklands to go back to argentina they could if they wanted to i don't think anyone cares age is over but it's a transition and the world economy is going to change as well because if the u.s. says to the chinese no you can't steal our ip anymore no we're not going to allow you free access to the u.s. market unless you give us free access to u.s. china relationship is fundamentally changing is it to a stance a way that makes it to make sure the two biggest economies right walk us through what we'll see happening between these two countries over the next couple of years four years a lot of posturing a lot of. things because trade is obviously changing with tech with the tariffs that are going up i mean that is fundamentally changing the cost will go up the chinese are trying to put tariffs on stuff they get from the u.s. but they don't get anything from the u.s. really bright so how do they do tit for tat i mean they can't there isn't

a symmetry there they do. they don't fit together well in terms of balance and the chinese also have dominated a lot of low and mid and manufacturing but not the high end stuff if the u.s. can still buy high and some of conductors from the taiwanese for example or the koreans how much is it going to matter the koreans will feel like out very quickly thank you ok so on the global trade front so china us you see posturing but not a lot happening what about us and the e.u. anything at all it's more fun ok walk us through that well with the british leaving with their modest but still significant resources the e.u. does it work max they just don't have the money to subsidize everybody especially the italians who are a festering and you know they do want debt forgiveness they do want to issue their own funny little currency which we printed like a lottery tickets so this is the end of this pretense called the e.u. which really came about because we didn't want europeans killing each other anymore . it was germany germany is abundance bank that's what

a spanking is the euro and the arrow cyprian central bank is germany and the bun disband and they can print lots of money and cover lots if they will the nine debt was high now it's low you know they are there under leverage as compared to the federal reserve bank of new york or the bank of japan the e.c.b. is relatively on leveraged no i don't i don't agree the germans and the french are paying for everything they've had a defacto union in fiscal year going to spend that founded on the e.c.b. by now there are five fifteen trillion euros and they well what are your determined banks and the french banks and the dutch or all ultimately underpinning us or one of the. bank itself the rumor is that it's a basket case that is going to explode at another way lehman brothers your thoughts a slow death painful dwindling death because of this was model that doesn't make sense anymore but in the model well it was london based capital markets and

investment banking with this time. a rump bank back in germany they don't have a banking business in germany so they have to figure out what they want to do with themselves same thing with citi i thought why don't we marry them this wonderful german american alliance but in both cases you have businesses that are big fund them selves off the markets they don't have core deposits they don't have stable funding the way a wells fargo has for example and so they have to figure out a way to be profitable and they haven't they've lost money for ten years right wells fargo's business model is something other than stealing money from clients i'm not aware of that money where the only answer own money. they have something other than just a larceny you know it's basic banking a lot of the. same thing you know you wrote the book ford man now what do you say about the reports that a ford will stop making cars and make only trucks and s.u.v.s walk us through this they're listening to the market the market wants s.u.v.s they're what hybrids they want things that look like could they came out of the avengers or something cars

are really not popular and there are a number of makers like machetes audi that still haven't gotten the message strangely enough tesla one of my favorites but ford that's are strength and most of the trucks quote unquote that they make are really cars. you don't take them off road you know don't take them fishing in maine what's up the car industry in america so that mean that would be involved in the trade war right i mean there. the u.s. exports a lot of cars but the u.s. has been on the losing end of that for a long time the you know how do they how does how does that rewrite itself or what can be what is the remedy that europeans export cars free of that and then they come into the u.s. with no tariffs are people on the other hand if we want to export to europe we get screwed because we have to pay the vet and we have a tariff as well so how is a fear the reality is europeans can't have freer trade with united states or couldn't afford it so it sounds like a good point there yes ok so you want to industry is going to support him one hundred percent they've been waiting for him for twenty years and that's his base

marcy kaptur for example in ohio protectionist democrat she will be one hundred percent behind trump she's been waiting for this guy for decades ok well that's a lot of voters yes you mention the carolinas everyone in the rust belt booming in the town is that north carolina is booming look at the democrats today max i think trump gets reelected easily fake you could impeach him if he get reelected easily right ok so twenty twentieth's odds on he's an odds on favorite i think so i mean he's from so far increased. employment numbers that's right this whole bit how does the wall street how do the capital markets view the meeting with trump putin how do they see that i mean the reaction of media does appear to be much of a nonevent but when you when you thought that it kind of reminds me of identity politics the media keeps trying to weave a connection between trader connection between you know putin and truck meeting an old dress of the markets shrug it off you know the markets are still feeding on the fed and that's slowly going away but there's

a ransom rising so you know the ten year fifteen years are heading ten year highs and higher you get the rates are going up to two percent three percent on the us on this on this paper deposit rates are going up ok. years ago if you were a big business and you had cash balances they wouldn't give you the time of day j.p. morgan all right so jamie dimon is going to call you and say thank you max and he's going to pay a lot more plus for that money really that you listen to how much it's changed so you get a two to three percent to the vig that a business will get from a bank compared to a few years ago so they yield on the cash instruments is now higher than the dividends on the s. and p. five hundred yes ok that's the first time that's happened in a while is a lot happening in the curves already inverted a little bit now this morning to the buffett model of valuation you know you're looking at yield and just up a thing he that would suggest that the stocks are overvalued or people will take the money off the table that they made earlier this year and last year and stick it

into bills right exactly i mean that's what i had to write ok out of people to check portfolio and a lot of people are doing this they have a rotation out equity out of stocks yes now i think yes and the only thing that is holding it up frankly is buybacks there's a huge amount of stock repurchases this year yeah which most retail investors don't understand but the long and short of it is you know rates are going to keep going up and when we see the treasury yield curve flat from t. bills up to ten years the fed's going to have to blink right they're going to have to set up i'm sorry we didn't mean that because otherwise this thing is going to we're going to be in a recession by two thousand and twenty all right so bloomberg interviewed a former i.m.f. economist martin gellman who says that the russian economy is actually the best of the big economies pointing in particular to the central bank russia's policies criswell in your thoughts russia's still basically an extract of economy they make money on commodities they don't have

a big industrial base some are based on they have already taking a bigger than their energy business yes ok what i'm saying is that when you look at how they make money and how they interact with other countries that's still a story you know they have to rule i want to generate leads during the debate now and. if you listen to that debate that a lot of stuff was said other than the two or three words that were highlighted that day were things putin said was that ok rush of oil price if it gets too high it's bad for them because it will focus is to much attention on the energy sector and they need to diversify when he gets too low it cars trains them of capital reserves so there's a sweet spot where the price of oil should be i mean that's a remarkable kind of data point that people need to keep in mind going forward planning the economies of the world and i care the two biggest energy producers in the world picking a spot and they're holding the spot opec now is is not a factor opec is in disarray and i think the russians very stupidly are trying to avoid what's happened both to the gulf states and been this way alone in other

countries where they just became entirely dependent on energy they didn't think about the versifying anything right always only. made the point that russia is something like fifteen billion twenty billion into the us versus china versus the e.u. that can easily get to fifty billion one hundred billion two hundred billion dollars it's of commerce between these two countries that's a lot of jobs for the america. right i mean if you're pro jobs i would think people are going to can trump just make that point like you know what the sanctions are stupid because we're going to export two hundred billion into russia that's another anyway we got to go we got to go chris started let's pick this up on the time thanks for being on the kaiser report on were all right that's going to do it for this edition of the cars report of the maestro's are safe here but life there goes chris whalen and i just on twitter it's kaiser report and i saw.

little. little. right we're all set to start in five guys in the studio has a signal to. live he's not going to talk about the no fly list just maybe right after the mars explorers one who would have their own unique.

record. to use a little detail. ok let's. welcome to see if you can tell i'm so sorry share or not said today we'll got lots to talk about in our program and our guest is. good luck that will. lead. to. the arts education. little.

do. you want to stand it is there you. must just must. do it to watch six of. us in you go to the religious right and i am for you. i'm. all for school it's only about the. one of them. to one of the ninety one columns on the wall.

i. don't know trump questions to remove the security clearance of several former intelligence officials they're accused of politicizing and monetizing the information they had access to. a former trump advisor comes under fire after here announces a new foundation to reportedly from men to right wing revolution in europe we get reaction from a member of the european parliament. people who goes through. want to show where the money was going for the bonus. could that argument not be made to george soros as well as the vision of the boy. and how a seventeenth century slave trader is remembered has divided bristol.