almost. below and welcome to crossfire all things considered i'm peter lavelle as the trumpet ministration pulls out of a key arms control agreement nato conducts a massive exercise in the arctic is a new front being opened up and it seems the saudis will get away with murder after all.

real news i'm joined by my guest here in moscow mark sloboda he's an international affairs and security analyst we also have these and he is a professor at the higher school of economics as well as author of the u.k. of western civilization and resurgence of russia and we have earl rescues and he is the executive vice president of the eurasia. effect i mean if you can jump in anytime i want i want to talk about the continue to fall out from the i.m.f. treaty that the trump administration is withdrawing from i think it's a significant story the foreign policy blog seems to agree with us for a change or maybe they're going to we're going with them also i want to talk about these nato exercises which i don't think are getting enough western coverage in the media be it's a significant event and with the withdrawal from the i.n.f. treaty and these exercises i think we can draw some conclusions here oh. first i

want to go to martin jay he is in our beirut he is a freelance broadcast journalist martin bring us up to speed what's going on with the show the affair and how turkey is behind the scenes pulling a lot of strings and a lot more than that go ahead martin. well this is not what's being reported out there nearly not by western media you have a huge deal on the table between turkey and saudi arabia we have to remember that these are frenemies are not very close allies in the region saudi arabia hates turkey for being friends and supporters of muslim brotherhood that hates being close to qatar and iran and they can see it sees it in terms of germany as being a sort of a competitor if you like and so what turkey's been doing. capitalizing on this extraordinary show your third and he's trying to look at the of the things that we're hearing what i'm hearing from my sources in turkey is holding out for a better deal on qatar much more investment in turkey obviously from the saudis you know and more and perhaps some say tional there

a sort of assistance if you like from the saudis in his bigger plan his bigger and visions in the region if you'd like to be a much more bigger regional player he's got quite huge huge ambitions about the role of turkey in the middle east ok mark when it what are the chances of his success i mean his his you know he gets everything in his bucket list what are the possibilities of that. it's really difficult to say i mean what's the most interesting thing take away from the universe a conference a few days ago with the hill which was one hundred and some of the actually mentioned briefly or posed a few was about qatar to me that was a signal that was a sign coded sign to the americans and to the turks that we could we could trade we could lift the blockade on cancer but some of this other stuff this pie and guy stuff come from turkey with the moment you know there's just no chance that we're going to give the talks any of that so i think that really just held up to saudis

he's been north of too much and he can chew in these in these deals and that's why we've got the stalemate and that's why we're getting more and more sensational press leaks and threats from metal one because you know he has got the sound is exactly what he wants to feed and he is holding up a bigger deal but i don't think he's going to get the big one the real the real of ground zero if you like of being helped by saudi arabia it is regional ambitions to be a bigger power ok marillion to leave it at that we'll have you on next week for the update thank you very much and let me go to you here mark i mean reflect on what martin had to say. we've discussed earlier why it is a carving beast but ultimately here is greed is running away with him here his if you think it means that you don't have the audio and videotapes not i've so i have no doubt about that this bloody gina hospital taking a trip over there and the cia she at the head of the cia and she said that she found the evidence compelling that was the words that she used compelling

so i think our go on though is his neo ottoman ambitions are perhaps gone a bit too far here and certainly saudi may lay off of qatar the united states wants them to do that as well and it hasn't netted them any benefits. certainly has been buckling down but ultimately a mama been so. arman is going to be ruling saudi arabia for a long time and that's what i'm good at and he will not forget this. and that's the big debate right here ok because i've been watching very closely expert opinion that i trust and it's not one hundred percent sure i think it's likely that he will stick around it's not one hundred percent sure we think and i think it obviously they would like for him to go as they must americans i think they would also preferred him to go and replace with someone else but of the day it's starting to

look as if it's not going anywhere and so sensitive i think they want to sell the story that it was like student or a whole list of excuses but at the end of the day i think the there's a lot of us and also europe to begin to buy this story as well so i have a list of excuses with here what do you think i mean it's really put trump into an mccrone as we saw the last few days but a lot of these european leaders and the american president turned into somewhat of a fix i would say. but i would agree with one there's a lot of people who would like to see him leave there are a lot of people like this to go away to write a lot of people like this to go away i think the crown prince is going to be staying in place the but it's very awkward if we look at everything oh it's possible that they were rogue attackers. oh i don't want to believe it if it's true right right oh man we have hundreds of you know one hundred sixty billion dollars

weapons deal with a lot of jobs that think we need to be careful on disrupting the region and of course we know saudi arabia is behind the. behind the oil dollar the petro dollar essentially and so it puts a lot of threats both from a arms sales perspective as well as. as well as those the stability of the dollar i would still reputation doesn't matter here. i saw the most oddest headline this week a.f.p. headline geopolitics complicated justice for murder journalist that's it that's it i thought it was supposed to be glenn's low no statement that he's our ally. or i want to point out to our viewers here i mean for him policy with stephen walt it is this is a brilliant article how to get away with murder saudi edition and he gives ten points if there's a comedy bus and then them just got to be real quick here i know a lot of mime it never happened number two ok we did something bad but we didn't do

it on purpose we can see we go through the levels here we had no choice number five it was for the greater good next everyone does it our opponents do it even more than we do serve an imprecise restraint it gets better a certain special status what we did wasn't really wrong because we're different play the guilt card and apologize and that number ten the punchline the rumsfeld defense stuff it's. also it's mostly. wind out of you know but see this is this is a bit satirical obviously but there's a lot of truth to this ok in what i'm just pointing out and i think what's the point of the branca park recy if this had been a rainy and dissident going into a rainy and consulate in istanbul in the same story came out they would be united nations security council resolutions they would be more sanctions that we've

threats of war but not in this case i think what makes this a bit different this because the turks have been releasing the information gradually the saudis actually go through all of these steps the truth well if you don't tell the truth if but if if the turks were releasing everything at once the saudis could adjust their excuse according to at least but because you have this comes out every day they don't have to run through the hole is the one. wouldn't you weeks ok of the mostly he literally result he's playing the bizarre. plane with he had it. in was he's got all the information that i think the evidence is real and he's just teed leaking this law and he's got. his strategic objectives that he wants to obtain and he's going to pull this so basically it's almost like a ramp some kind of court going on out there a loop or everyone plays a set a cutting short term game but from a few years ago when turkey had no enemies everyone in the past few years has

annoyed or pissed off the united states with this business in syria with with the kurds russia by shooting down one of their planes and continuing to back jihadists and syria. now saudi arabia israel every surrounding power of course from greece to our many. i i'm not betting on a long life expectancy for mr erdogan personally you could only push things too far you can't piss off every superpower but there's a worry power everyone agreed on ever since we've been talking about this man and he's a survivor and i think that's what he's best at ok surviving all of this here this playing these different factions and countries off each other that's what keeps him in power i think he will be a little run for a long time. yes was also the mystic support for him of course but if the economy goes. at the end of the day that's what he that so you see extorting.

underwriting him right now and now he wants to sell it he's a star. yeah. i think here mark pointed out well that is short term he's a lot lot of leverage he can squeeze the saudis for a lot but in the long run that might be the especially if i miss things empower the they will do or they will essentially get back at him because every country does some. possible proxy could we see that like with syria which we'll talk about it here possibly i mean the don't really have the same interests saudis are effectively underwriting the kurds right now the proxy government that the us is setting up saudi arabia is paying for that which is one of the reasons of course what the united states is the government at least is pushing this under the table as far as they can but is a very is

a did i'm sure we will be talking about well right before we go to the break here on u.s. policy. the crown prince may stay or go but the policy with saudi arabia stays steve absolutely it's been in place for a. should decades and i also. additionally the u.s. part of this whole their whole paul the national strategy their policy is to maintain is being basically being the extra and all guarantor guarantor of the middle east oil flow access to it control of it and the partnership with with saudi arabia against iraq ok but they've also brought saudi arabia and israel together as friends i mean that's quite an icon remarkable and the north yemen right general in yemen you're going to jump in here we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion a real new state with our.

seemed wrong. but i. just don't. get to seem. to stay active. engagement because the trail. when something find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. i would prefer to say. the human space is. placed me instead so we have a living in the solar system. and. we show that. all

of this. i see this as a way bringing in and developing more technology new technology so that we can even land. in. the field. welcome back across all things considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing some real news. ok let me go to earl here during the break you mentioned the wall doctrine why go ahead. and look at this you know we mentioned we talked earlier about full spectrum

dominance in influence over not just the region but globally and if we look back at the wolfowitz doctrine. the whole the whole basis of that was u.s. supremacy. and being the only sole superpower and doing whatever is necessary to maintain that status and you've got paul wolfowitz involved you've got vice president cheney who had a special role in the bolton was actually part of those different capital and different positions during that timeframe and it went from starting out in the in the reagan in the bush one time period. really had. to push to full blown into bush to correct it actually took some basic shifts but maintain the same tenant that were originally documented and basically it's as senator you know one of the late center edward kennedy said this is a doctrine for u.s.

supremacy and imperialism one that no country. should go along and support ok but it. only went through obama and now in this this is the bipartisan here this ties into the withdrawal from the i.n.f. treaty which i think it's really interesting because full spectrum dominance means being able to act unilaterally ok and this is exactly what's happening in this administration here and john bolton has all been a long proponent of unilateral action is going to spin a lot of folks on the european opera however i wouldn't overstate the door exaggerated too much because we've seen this in the past if remember back in one thousand nine hundred nine when the united states under clinton argued that perhaps they should start to develop a missile defense shield what happened in europe you had the germans the french despite. the dutch essential all of western europe the united said no this is a horrible day you're going to disrupt a nuclear balance of power the russians going to have to. say that they're going to

have to compensate somehow the i.m.f. might on arrival all this argument came out however what happened two years later when the united states actually did withdraw from it they said well these are the new realities either you can accept it or you can begin to risk our alliance solidarity and and this is everyone started to fall in line and i think that was it was not just accidental this is there a deliberate strategy and we find out that we found out through the wiki leaks cosimo we have you know very interesting territory for this radar sometimes getting proper footprint of russia and the u.s. ambassador to norway he pretty much was very open saying well we're going to put a lot of pressure on the norwegians make them change their mind because we opposed it and essentially break this down to being all about law and solidarity once this because the issue they will turn and then a few months later be reported but yes we put some pressure on the government journalists everyone no one eighty and so we need

a lot of investment entreaty didn't. cast a possible arms race the withdrawal from the could mark i do. and and it's not necessary you know let me be very clear i can see the flaws in the weaknesses of this treaty that was the warsaw pact existed at the time here but walking away from it we're not replacing it or even beginning to start some kind of new talks about nonproliferation and arms control i think that's a mistake i think that. the u.s. pulling out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty back in two thousand and one will certainly did start a new arms race and russia's new frontline weapons hypersonic missiles that are all specifically it does and they announced then we're going to have to take measures they announced well they're developing them and they announce when they're deploying them which is what's happening now but bolton must have a scorecard of international treaties that he's getting rid of. one by one because he was instrumental in the back in two thousand and one and pulling the u.s.

pulling out of the a.b.m. he's got the joint comprehensive plan of action now the treaty of amity and friendship between the us iran and now he's the one driving at least according to the washington post and others in the western mainstream media the u.s. pulling out of the i.n.f. treaty and but there's been some some some quite interesting. vents going on so john bolton came to moscow in the last week and he met with putin and putin had had quite a comment for him as far as i remember the u.s. seal depicts an eagle on one side holding thirteen arrows but on the other side is an olive branch with thirteen olives here is the question did your eagle eat all the all of us and only the arrows are left. but one replied i didn't bring any more olives and putin just thought i thought so but. but announced

in georgia in tbilisi that he that the u.s. wants to hold strategic conversations meaning nuclear in. context of a conversation with the press about the i.m.f. with russia. about china and the next might that's where the last week of the trouble might actually be trying to whether he'll get it done or not is another matter but his goal might be a new international i n f that brings china and j.p. i am sure that you know it's possible but going it seems kind of counter-intuitive to me because then that would crimp this unilateralism ok i know that would be a change maybe for someone like bolton does to suggest that when he is a unilateralist to the core why would he want to be the father of an internet of those coming enough to just sell it that way but i later coming is one thing i mean it's a bureaucratic infighter but i mean about reality go ideally the international treaties

you want to constrain your other is there is about yourself and i think the legitimate weakness of the i.m.f. this was drawn up in to seven so this was a book bipolar distribution of power for that reason it's constrained moscow and washington so i think it's fair to say that you know you have all this pakistan you have the chinese you have a lot of other countries who doesn't have to abide by it so in order to draw more countries into it if fair enough as you point out i think this time for updating this international treaty this gives that the world is going through a lot of changes. in what again the walking away from it might just be the you know this is a preamble to the i guess we mark maybe you know maybe maybe you know there are no down there no discussions about dealing with the new start treaty that's going to expire in two thousand to one for the duration is given indication that it is not looking favorably on renewing it ok let's talk about nato we have really huge exercises in the. arctic i think it's the first time in thirty years an american

aircraft carrier is in the arctic under. this exercise here. as i said i'm a introduction opening up of the new frontier. it sure does look like it we have we have the largest exercises since the end of the cold war i mean i used to participate in some of those exercises back in the eighty's. not in the. late eighties. we've got. we've got the a.b.m. sites being set up in poland romania i think czech scada targeting facilitate our facility and we've got now looks like we're going to be moving a division into poland forward stationed and we've got some troops you know rotational basis in the baltic baltic sure does appear that we've got a unprovoked by the way a kind of forward movement of a new from. occurring. but why is norway so keen on at least

official doorway so keen on this kind of things i thought you were a kind of a peaceful people well no good to fight you i said that if i hold the compass a bit divided in this course in the north they're actually to do a lot of work with russia and relations are quite good also they remember the second world war because we were under nazi occupation and the red army actually came in to the north of the country and liberated the liberated it sorry and once it was liberated they promoted said you will come and they went back so we didn't have the eastern european experience as actually so but also that we adopted the narrative of the poles because nato solidarity like the russians will come for us but in the north they never bought into this so we did the country is a little bit they are divided on this but there that being said you are correct i mean in terms of per capita norway is second only to the u.s. in nato in terms of military spending since last year we going to hosting american troops in the way that we going to putting the british helping the arctic with developing the invited to the radio side radar to monitor russia

so there's a lot of what can be interpreted. most certainly from russia's perspective i mean you have this vast military alliance but ever moving closer to your border but there's a reason behind that because the arctic is developing very fast at the moment and so you militarize it how you want what you do say a demilitarized arche could get everybody to sign that it would not be a better idea yes but the arctic will be it looks like it might be chinese russian lead because in general this year the chinese released the first white paper on the arctic they refer to as the polar sea world so essentially putting the arctic route into their one world one belt and russia is now accommodating them to cooperate to develop the arctic so for transportation east west energy scientific good development so there will be a lot of cooperation there and so essentially what the americans and british are saying is we will be a lot of competition you know canyon so you're right this mostly military tools.

nato has to counter this so we're going to is a military organization looking for a mission the arctic well i mean we've seen those cold war tensions we've talked about it on the show and the qana nato's in the last year was the biggest military exercise since the end of the cold war then russia had their vos talk two thousand and eighteen just a few months ago we thought that biggest military exercises since the end of the cold war albeit they were very far from nato as boarders in the far east and now nato is back again with trying to end juncture we're talking some fifty thousand troops two hundred fifty aircraft sixty five navy vessels ten thousand military vehicles all parked right on russia's borders and they're practicing this shipping are what would actually happen in a conflict against russia on the continent of bringing into a conflict theater large amounts of military equipment from the u.s.

and all that really resonates through russia russia is not the target that's completely ridiculous but the norwegian defense minister did say one on us thing russia is not a direct threat to norway well it isn't what you're doing your best to make you give glenn the last word as a norwegian you know all he makes of this is the minute i was speaking he always makes that argument about the direct threat to norway however norway has to look after its allies which i find interesting because the british a british general made the argument yesterday that. their threat to norway and we have to look after our allies so it seems that no one is seeing a direct thrust an attack on them but we're just there war with fluffy to look after and we're going to keep. nato solidarity yeah it is a really good the flood is the new interrogation and it's all going to be up here many thanks and i guess you must go and be rude this is the end of our broadcast segment say with us for the extended version on our you tube channel see you next time remember across knuckles.

sarka bala really was very european in his approach she would be very well suited is an m.e.p. in brussels for example is that doesn't represent america is america for better or worse and i think what we're trying to do here is to let the world see what we're all about here. i've been saying the numbers mean something they matter the u.s. has over one trillion dollars in debt more than ten white collar crimes happen each day. eighty five percent of global wealth you longed to be ultra rich eight point six percent market saw thirty percent rise last year some with four hundred to five hundred trade per second per second and bitcoin rose to twenty thousand dollars.

china is building a two point one billion dollar a i industrial park but don't let the numbers overwhelm. the only number you need to remember is one one business show you can afford to miss the one and only. while give easy while saying this us. war union said one slide solves. the rational assaults. desire shelagh need to. get the new dell cars on the.

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said i'd. love to see these people the survivors of a world disappearing before their eyes. i remember thinking when i was younger that if anything ever happened to the coal mines here that it would become a ghost town but i never thought in a million years i would see that and it's how it's happened. to be. compared. to when did the money out the next cd you party convention to somebody i will not run for the chair of the party this fourth tom is the last one for me. the german chancellor announces she is stepping down in twenty twenty one and confirms plans to quit as leader off party after eighteen years as i am for them luckily it's paid with a c.v. .