welcome to sophie and co and sophie shevardnadze the relations between the u.s. and e.u. are in tora bora with uncertainties over cracks and calls for a new european army are the tensions temporary or a major divide in the making i talked to matthew boris veteran cia analyst and a former national intelligence councilor who's also taking part in the amur attack conference two thousand and eighteen. the transatlantic alliance between the u.s. and europe is splitting at the seams with the e.u. leaders and president trump trading jabs. solidarity in question and a trade negotiation lock down is western europe the us thing of the past how well the long term allies handle living apart if the split gets out of hand and what needs to happen to heal the transatlantic rift my favorites thanks a lot for being with us today it's great to meet you in person because i know we've done this over the satellite. to talk about i think things have changed from the

last time we spoke will start with united kingdom and the future of the brics a deal is still uncertain and u.s. secretary of state my compare has said that you know the states will keep its very special relationship with the united kingdom even if the harbor exit is the case is the scenario i remember when trump was in the united kingdom he was actually supporting the rebellious conservatives who are who are calling you know for a hard so is no deal right now something that is convenient for washington is that what washington really wants and why no i don't they go they would want a no deal simply because it causes huge amount of confusion it could tip. it certainly will tip britain into recession but it could tip also europe and you know we're on the edge there. a lot of economists believe that we're headed into

a recession so this could be a factor that you know tips or helps to tip everybody so from that standpoint washington still wanted tom's remarks kind of undermining the british prime minister they don't really fit into these special relationship true friendship narrative that u.k. and united states have shared for decades and decades how close and how special is their relationship with trump at helm of the america really. how special is it with the british and. i think first i'm not sure that the special relationship will be that special after they leave the e.u. because for americans britain was the entryway into the european union both in an economic sense but also in a political sense because they represented u.s. views at the table and the u.s.

was not at the table when the european union said to be fair america and britain shared special relationship even before the e.u.'s created yes. and we'll always share those values lots of americans feel very close to britain. that's where you know if they start on the european trip they tend to go to london before they go to the other capitals but i don't believe it's quite a special i mean the cultural values will be there. and the closeness that way but not as much in a political sense and then the trade deal that the u.s. negotiates is probably going to be pretty hard for some brits to take because the u.s. will demand the opening of their agricultural sector. so they're you know the u.s. is not going to give them a soft deal so troops killer approach to his overseas

counterparts whether it's lender or whether it's brussels is this is a personal thing or is this really right now a truly new lasts lasting the actor of american foreign policy. well his kind of. erratic behavior. where he got on the radio when he was in britain and supported the prime minister's opponents i think that will go away because you know us is pretty much presidents try to be pretty consistent pretty predictable trump is the opposite of that. but i think there is a new attitude in the us largely from the degree that us is oriented much more to china and china is the peer competitor europe more and more should be on its own. now that it's not to say that the nato alliance is going

to. disappear but you know us does would share his both sides of the aisle would share his view that the europeans need to do more for their defense so we'll get to defense in nato but what you're saying basically is that. under the disguise of his erratic behavior trump is actually a gateway to what really americans want in terms of their relationship with europe yes ok well then there is not just of course the british prime minister but trump and the french president and then merkel now also someone had a spat trying to criticize the french government policies in light of the clashes that were challenging his country and then the french foreign minister was like just leave our nation be in back off. terms twitter diplomacy actually fewer more anti micron protest and friends what do you think. you know i think. you know

i don't think she lay joan as a cold you know vess. actually like trump. much. you know there are opposed to macro but. i think you know he has more about a connection with the british wrecks a tears on the continent he doesn't have that report and people feel largely. most countries in in europe italy may be an exception because he does have some connections there with the with the populace but for the most part he's not that well liked so why is that what started between trump and mccrie on something that they wanted to

present as a close friendship actually turned into a series of japs and insults. well micro had an idea that he could turn the president away from leaving the a pair of climate agreement. particularly when he was on this flattery effort to. turn the president away from is commitment to get out of the iran nuclear agreement j c p a way. and that was a big defeat for him a call when he went to washington that was his number one objective to try to change that and then even after that he wanted to. try to get try not to say a new. european companies that were doing business with iran us has taken

a very hard line on that they've also taken a very hard line on the european union trying to develop a facility. to allow their companies to trade without getting sanctions so from that standpoint all his is efforts fail. i think they call made this comment that we want to european army in part because of china russia and then he added the u.s. at the end for trump he wants the europeans actually to do more for the defense but always under a u.s. mean that. comments which are very much in line with call as feeling in france never less looked like it was opposing the u.s. . but you know it's one thing for america to want a more independent. but it's another thing for

a president to openly disparage international counterparts according to ones that challenge him what what's in it for trump what is the benefit for america in doing so it's for his supporters to show that the u.s. can throw around its weight u.s. will not take any guff from. you know it's his allies and that u.s. can beret has the freedom to break but they can't answer the u.s. back and for some a lot of his supporters that's what they want from a u.s. president they believe other u.s. presidents have. power too much fun of europeans or asian allies done too much i mean the one thing to think so enters of china because it's

a real competitor in russia because i do logically we don't stand together in the same line but euro has always been like a. century long partner and hasn't really challenged america and i think really you take on that well for his supporters you know standing up i mean they feel that the u.s. has been you know hurt itself because he had his. you know bend over backwards for its allies. and so this is a great day in us standing up and saying a lot about i did actually say the other thing as a way around i would agree i'm not that i'm not not trying to. his supporters you know this is america first and that is you know it that we should be able to tell everybody off but not expect anybody to come back and soon this idea of european army that you mentioned a couple of times has received really good backing by germany and by france and obviously. that's all in the wake of rexx

a trouble doesn't really like it he feels quite skeptical about the plan if brought to life do you feel the new e.u. army could actually make nato redundant. probably not i mean it's of it's a stretch for them first to get an army together but i think what that would do which u.s. not just try but u.s. policymakers would fear is make their foreign policy a lot more independent of the u.s. so we are already moving in that direction just because of trump's anti. multilateralism anti you know j.c. pos all those issues but it would make the the europeans i think feel that they can set their own policies without necessarily reference to the u.s.

why does it bother trump so much then why isn't he thrilled about the european r.b.a. we having that would surely take loads of american military shoulders and isn't that what he wanted in the first place. for a lot of even trump. foreign policy elite. any sort of talk of a european army appears to them as a threat to nato. there was a whole argument in the one nine hundred ninety s. when they european union with maastricht and others began to talk about a foreign policy european foreign policy or free and defense policy and people in washington reacted very strongly because the worry is that. europeans would to get together without the us make some decisions and then come

into nato. as a collective body and maybe. you know force us to to to. agree european position we're going to take a short break right now while we're back we'll continue talking to. cia analyst and a former national intelligence who is also taking part in twenty eight hundred number attack. not long ago the political left are the guardians of free speech along with the

left today has gone from protecting speech to enforcing speech even to the point of penalizing you if you say the wrong thing in public you can lose your job and libel welcome to the era of simply shut up. when customers go by your. well reducing lower. that's what's good for markets it's not good for the global economy.

we're back with matthew morrison veteran cia analyst mr virus so if they hear opinion and actually stops relying on americans for security would that make the other areas american or pillar relationship more complicated like trade. yes i mean for a lot of traditional foreign policy. members of the elites there is this bargain that that you know we have this strong defense agreement and then we also. overlay this with the strong economic agreement and the two need to go side by side. so yes if you know the u.s. may play more hardball but in recent times i mean even on the economic side this has been a very difficult relationship. just because there are differences and we have

different ideas on g m o's we have different ideas. you know agricultural sector europeans tend to protect there's more we would like to open it up. so. just recently european union has proposed to deal with this international trade dispute under the w t o and america has rejected the deal and i know that in a past trauma past called w.t.f. counterproductive and useless what does america as it mean for the future we don't leave here i mean does washington want to freeze things is just the way they are right now well i think other than trump who again is somewhat erratic on this most americans would you know policymakers would like the w t o reform particularly to deal with charter. i mean.

and they all would also wanted to be updated because increasingly trade is more digital were getting to be more digital. and that was not really part of the. part of the scene when the w t o was put together so it doesn't have that much have to do with europeans because i was thinking maybe i could actually you know get more concessions out of the e.u. by threatening to withdraw from w t o. i no i don't think that would play in europe that that sort of threat what would actually bring you and us together is more of the reform of the debbie two yo to attack what they see as unfair trading practices by china and both europeans and americans have complained about china. but what is the worst case scenario for imagine it that

america withdraws from w t o for europe and double each what what would that mean for the ricans ation would it collapse i mean after all you say yourself there are other countries to trade with like china i think it would collapse. particularly. you know i don't think the europeans alone and even if china says it wants to stay in the cio i think what you're you're seeing anyways a more regional more regionalization trade. and then. even you know before trying. president obama had this idea for regional agreements so one with europe one with this was t p p s trans pacific partnership so with asian allies you know where we are far away from the global trade agreements that you know decade or so

we have so interesting interesting laying out one of the concerns that european union and america share in common is china's economic expansion or expansionism. do you think if you're china could actually who in america back together well china is is try to mean one thing china has influence in some. east european countries under a being was greece others were getting a lot of benefits from china so there is that and the europeans in brussels serve very worried about that so there is some division there. but i think yes so long as they don't want to be dragged into a conflict an american conflict with with china.

and they don't like the kind of blustery you know there are a anti china insults and others that sometimes trump and some of his people engage in would like to you know push china back a few decades to where it is and that's right i mean they don't like that sort of added to china on its side i think would like to strengthen its ties with europe to avoid a common front that would also include chip may. well actually funny you mention japan because this beijing investment thing is coming under so much scrutiny in the e.u. they reminds me of the eighty's there was very similar fear of all japanese in japanese investment and genes are buying everything i don't know if you can compare the scale of japan and china but it's very much like what was going on this is anti

japan japan historic hysteria comically in the eighty's is it justified to fear china so much or is it just going to go away like the japan fear in the eighty's i don't think you know i don't think it's going to go quite a way because i think you know japan entered. a long period of decline. just about the time that people were who were very that it was going to take over the world. i think you know china much bigger economic power much more long term. i think. you have to live with that. and there's lots of advantages that the europeans get from as well as americans. and i have got from china so we need to certainly some of their trade practices we should you can push better then to china you know at this point

here you said hungary and greece and here they're certainly enjoying great financial benefits from i really don't have a china they don't have the ability probably push back because they're they want the investments too much but the rest the european union has the power to push back but also because like every time something comes up like countries like hungary increase they're actually blocking the resolutions condemning patients foreign policy i mean yes we don't want the chinese yes we have this anti chinese hysteria but then the chinese implicit in europe is so big that it goes as far as vetoing to brussels resolutions yes but you have a nation you know the member states like germany france others begin to put restrictions on investments. and. you know it's one thing china can invest in hungary and grace but what they really want our german

high tech companies because they they want to learn from the germans so that you know that is a way of restricting brussels has allowed i mean there's an e.u. resolution that was agreed that allows nato member states to begin to put investment controls on china so well you is locked in its trade dispute with china america and china the leaders are actually talking it out in terms of trade war what do you think will come out of it because trying does that a lot like he first goes against something and then negotiate a deal on his own terms i think because china is growth at the moment is beginning to. you know to soften their very worried about that for political reasons that they will want to deal they also know that they rely on the u.s. for chips and other things some of their companies see t.

so that they will make a deal. but i what i fear is what the lessons they draw from this is that the u.s. is determined not to allow them to continue to rise and that they will make sure that five years they will not be dependent on the u.s. or anybody else for some of their these fido tech. inputs like chips and you know what you'll see is maybe not made in china in two thousand and twenty five but it will be certainly made in china in twenty thirty five because they are also looking at the rhetoric which is you know we will never allow china to be better than we are going talk a bit about your recent report that you coauthored actually points out further

escalation between west and the russia is one of the major to play whisks within a space in twenty nineteen but i mean this. escalations and this risks there are rooted in people's decisions it's not like they're inevitable right. so do you feel there's any will in washington to steer away from the collision course with russia yeah. not at the moment no i don't see it well i think it will change but i don't see when it will change or detained for it to change. i think one thing is a stronger president you know this president trump has ceded all his powers on russia to congress who basically can determine when the same sions come off the president really doesn't have that many power.

so i think you need a stronger president. and i think you need may be you know a democrat coming in who gets elected so that they can turn the page on their defeat. in twenty sixteen. and say that they defied all the you know russian interventions or whatever it's time to actually democrats right holland america are even more. adamantly into russian than the republicans i mean i know if i can say that but that's my impression but you couldn't get a leader that doesn't has a different point of view and i think you know we're at a different point of view and look what happened to him i mean they almost ate him alive yes but this is this is a little bit like nixon and china is the strongest anti-communist is the one that opens the door to relations with communist china it will be the democrat

who can actually say ok we need to have relations because otherwise we'll get into an arms race this will get worse. you know unfortunately a casualty of this is probably going to be a new start. because timing doesn't work it expires february twenty twenty one that's a month after. whoever's elected the next president whether it's democrats are at home i think virus thank you very much for those wonderful this insight only show that you know well thank you so much and story when. we don't have better news. hopefully next term.

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secret projects by us democrats to test online tactics during an election is rebuilding the new york times reports it's claimed they used the methods of an old adversary those much maligned russian bombers. another hits for the trumpet ministration as defense secretary james mattis announces he's stepping down just a day after the u.s. president surprises our allies by saying he's withdrawing troops from syria. and a top journalist from one of germany's most respected publications doesn't beagle is exposed for fake news for years he's been stripped of several awards for his investigations including c.n.n. journalist of the year twenty four.