american soldiers and two civilians that were killed on january sixteenth the criticism doesn't only come from from the congress it also comes from his military political staff within the administration a loss on my mind mistake a grave error it's caught everybody off guard and will of the actually pay for it here would dramatically. this is an obama like when the americans decide to declare that they're going to withdraw from syria there is that is creating a vacuum and this is a big risk and this is a very dangerous situation and it's going to give more momentum for the isis and for the terrorists this is the confusion in the american administration for so many years they paid a lot of money and they put a lot of effort to support the kurdish forces in the northern part of syria and now they want to abandon. for they want to find a balance between the two and it's a very difficult balance to find and i think the kurds have to learn their lesson once and for all like many people all around the world that if you work for the americans. at any time without any guarantees for your safety and that's what they

have done so many times before in so many heated areas around the world. around thirty minutes with more updates but it's safe. welcome to sophie and co also from shevardnadze the outlook for a global economy is turning darker as war places breck's it and blowback from us china tensions all and i asked dr jake a prank call chairman of j.p. morgan chase international. as the world economy recovers from the shock of two thousand and eight but the picture isn't so bright and. instability is

pushing people into radical politics and the backlash against the system is already being felt across the planet with trade barriers and conflicts returning will the stress on the global financial system cause it to crash again. this boom and bust cycle finally be broken or is catastrophe just around the corner. take a prank though it's really great to have in our show today my pleasure all right so lots to talk about after last year's davos somewhat you have actually cited it the growing global doubt level as a concern but this year we have the china u.s. standoff that you things are big problem to the global economy do you think we're looking at a recession to come willing to recognize the world is a very global entity countries in the world interconnected. in a way again is the nature of the integrated world to have burials

and to create trade tensions so it's an introduction i would like to say that in my judgment the chinese standoff as far as the trade. scale mischa's is the major issue but you are perfectly right that. we arrived to disuse which is the tenth anniversary of the large financial crisis crisis that started from large debt levels we arrived to this year from the legacy of large debt levels and now we see the debt continuing to grow so to gether the rising debt which is fragility of the financial system and the rising trade tension which is for g.d.p. of the trading system can translate itself into fragility of the world international and that's something to watch for do you think the same as your cause from j.p.

morgan the twenty twenty stair when the big recession is going to hit the world and we're going to see a social unrest unseen since one thousand nine hundred sixty eight and if you think that's the case do you think could be averted and how well i think that and not all of my colleagues think that way and develop views all over in general when i'm driving and i see a war it's very important to warn and say we can do food there is a war. i can declare that there is across or i can say change the direction prevent the accident so i think that what is now called for is to sound the alarm and say if we are not going to change something this will not end up nicely but we have the opportunity to change we need to change because

there is too much to lose i just want to say that while a decade ago they feel in the height of the crisis they feel was that the ground disappears and we are going to implode. most of the economies of the world today. doing reasonably well yes we can see and highlight well the difficulties are but the world has resumed its growth in fact all the regions of the world are now growing in a positive way so we need to look at it with this perspective there is a lot to do some dangers but we are not coming to it from a crisis boat but would you say they were completely past the two thousand and eight crash because you have said that this year is the best year since two thousand and eight but we still see falling wages in the year saying national economies are doing way they inequality between rich and poor has grown drastically

never seen before it's almost like being hit by with also from a bomb that was dropped ten years ago do you think we're ever going to be past two thousand and eight completely in a way to say that i hope that we should not in a way what we should always have is the memory of that event so that we don't repeat the mistakes it is in this sense that it would stay with us however many of the flaws that characterize the especially financial system have been riveted but the problem is that the crisis of tomorrow will not be the same as the crisis of yesterday so we need to deal with resilience you know there are always three phases when we talk about crisis there is a crisis prevention phase there is a crisis management phase and this is there is a crisis resolution phase crisis prevention is the most important one and it's the

most boring one politicians wake up normally only when they see danger and if you tell them just prevent the danger they say we don't have a danger what's the problem so that's something to watch for i think that. the system now you mention properly has a lot of tensions in it that come from a very. gap between the rich and the pool this distribution of income the distribution of wealth and the feeling of much of large parts of the population that somehow they do not benefit from the overall growth of the economy this is something which is a public finance public policy challenge that needs to be addressed but also i feel like the consequences in two thousand and eight aren't just economical i think it's

like social and political because falling economy means frustration of the masses you brought that up in the beginning which leads to the rise of what is called populism the rise of other forms of discontent like yellow vests in france right now like a very serious thing do you think we'll see more political consequences of two thousand and eight do you feel like the global community politicians that you're talking about economists are ready to prevent this new financial crash are we better and more prepared right now where we may be more prepared but the challenges are also big because one of the unfortunate outcomes of the two thousand and eight . was the loss of trust the feeling that somehow leadership is not leading us to where we want to be and it's true in the corporate sector it's true in the political arena it's true in the social sector somehow large parts of the population feel that they are not being led properly

which means there is this kind of aura which i'm not through is correct which means there is the owner of our leaders have failed expels have failed and what does it mean it means let's take a new leader let's take known experts let's take a complete outsider and if somebody was in the system before he's already disadvantaged. i can see the. kind of emotional attraction to this great danger do you think this gather behind like the out of the system character that is very fashionable all around the world right now do you think that will not lead people to a good place no it will it's a very dangerous area and the reason is the world is very complex you really need to have the experts you cannot allow. to drive these complex calls or to

be the pilots of this play out of the people will tell if exports have failed people and we don't trust them anymore i mean the way i say because a lot of people criticize truck right now for being protectionist for waging trade wars but you know a lot and a lot of experts are saying do not kill trade do not do protectionism this is really bad not for american economy but for the global economy but then there are people who are gathering around him and the way i see trump is just an example could be anyone else in his place and some broken trust between the society and the financial economic elite and that needs to be restored you're absolutely right so identifying the problem is phase number one phase number two is identifying the solution. the solution does not mean take our motto to drive the complex cars the solution means let's learn from history what has worked and what

has not worked. history did not start with trump and you are absolutely right trump is not just the name of a person it's a name of a phenomenon so you have bracks it crisis in the u.k. you have the entire. in france the le pen they is the yellow west you have in hungary or been and a lot of populism over there i think the entire issue of the margraf free of the refugees of migration has in a way preoccupied the policy the policy makers time and attention in europe and diverted attention from the growth and socially quickly boom objectives so all of those are right but history started much earlier and we have one learned one

lesson from history openness helps millions of people all over the world have been elevated from poverty because of access to technologies form abroad to trade to education to knowledge openness is not just trade openness is a mindset mindset that says let's get the best from everywhere not only from what we produce and therefore since the storms do not happen exactly in the same time in all places it's a great privilege that when i have a challenge i can benefit from the prosperity of the other country through trade because when the next round comes they have a challenge they will benefit from the prosperity for my country so international trade and commerce. in services and financials and knowledge and people is

has proven to be the key for economic prosperity and growth so let's not allow shote considerations and short term city's fiction which helped psychological to destroy the tree that gives us the you know what like. average person or tell you i don't want to think twenty thirty forty years i had our own take care of my life now and you know they're like the protectionist profer traction and people that came to power like trump and he wants to kill of the trade deals that were working for tens and tens of years and are working fine but then he'll tell you i have created three point five million jobs and people are quite happy with it and i don't think they want to like think i had thirty forty years of let's not kill trade because protectionism is bad because in forty years you live better what are you going to say to that he has a plan for three point five million jobs for americans right. i'm not sure that he

has created. a lot of jobs that have been created many of the protectionist also. by being open to technology into knowledge into extra old mary human capital that has by grated into the u.s. and has contributed to it it's not a very simple thing but if you ask me so why do we need what is leadership about is the every rich person say i want to make sure that i feel is the month epically and that i have a good meal on my table that my favorite takes case they can kill today tomorrow. and the role of the leader is to come and say let's make sure that it happens not only today and tomorrow but also next year and the next century yes leaders really need to have a comp us which is more all fall cited than the one of the families that

are under pressure i'm not grading them they'll not be know intellectually or anything but we must understand that in order to an able to their children to have what they want to have we need to create the infrastructure in the world although that will bring it about talking frank i'm going to take a break right now while we're back we're going to need talking to dr jacob frenkel head of j.p. morgan chase international stay with us. in the.

same wrong. just don't call. me. yet to shape out just to educate and indeed from an equal betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart when you choose to look for common ground . trump introduces star wars two point zero calls for impeachment. treason. join me every thursday on the all excitement and i'll be speaking to us from the world of politics sport i'm sure i'll see you then.

and we're back with dr jacob frenkel had j.p. morgan chase international dr frankel so that the class of people there were hit the most by this economic crisis that turned into social unrest in the middle class in the west and they're saying hey you know we want economic equality because when while while they're being hit by the crisis their lives are getting drastically richer and richer and that's an undeniable fact so do you think what they want this equality will be beneficial from the global economy let's say we just start this massive tax to reach all over the west do you think it's

a good thing for the global economy i think that you're bringing a very deep issue which has been in debate for ages among economists the trade off between efficiency and equity. how can you ensure that when you are helping the society to be more equitable through transfers from the rich to the poor and cetera that you also maintain efficiency in the economy so that you don't have you don't cut the tree that gives you the fruits what do i have in mind i'll take it to a power docs suppose that you take you cut half of the g.d.p. the product of the country and you take that half and you distribute it equally to everyone you will win the nobel prize by saying i have full equality

but you have equality of misery you want to make sure that the quality is not just a slogan of misery but it also is associated with a rise in the standard of living how can you have a rise in the standard of living by having people who are richer saving investing broadening and increasing the size of the national party so that we can distribute more to everyone so if you're going just to tax the rich mindlessly the rich so-called what will they do they will say why should i save i'm going to be taxed anyhow so i will cut my saving and i will give a big party and we will sound happy we will have more to consume but for the next generation there will be less because we have not saved and why haven't we saved because the government is about to tax us and distribute it so the delicate

issues of how to achieve social norms that bring about taking care of the pooh and equality. at the same time not destroying the future and therefore i think i want to put only one major principle on the table the key issue is not equality of income the key issue is equality of opportunities we really must make sure the underprivileged parts of the society have the opportunity to elevate themselves so that over time their children will be in a better part in the society world where does it come it comes not by giving them meal on the table per se but by giving them education by given them the

power to do it and that's not by just distributing the power so if we speak as of today. the gap of access to opportunities is as wide as the gap between rich and poor today i'm not sure i can generalize it but i would definitely i would definitely. use that metric. to assess the pictures that i see so if i see today qualities especially in the u.s. there are between the black this panic the. the indian the not the known minorities you have great gaps and it creates social tensions it brings about crime and it really destroys a generation the way to go about it is to ask not let's punish them and put them in jail but rather what brought it about how come the kid had to go to the

supermarket and steal a loaf of bread. why isn't in school during that time what is happening to the parents etc that's where education comes in i really put highest weight on education and i think this is this is the key for the future you know a lot of experts are also saying that. trying on jeans of the world economy in the future economy china and india to agree with that and if that's true then maybe we should just sort of all relax because they can a poor through china and india are indeed they are different from each other in terms of systems etc laos populations of course they have been growing at a very rapid pace and in a few years not many china will surpass the u.s. to me this means not can i sit down and relax because they will carry the day but

rather how do the major parts of the world in this particular case u.s. and china make sure that there is positive interaction between them and there is no greater awareness that the those two pilots of the world economy need to talk to each other you know i told you that in many countries economic conditions are now as measured are much better than they were a decade ago and yet people are worried i'm very worried and i ask myself why i have a feeling that people you and i are sitting now in the. we can have a nice coffee we can talk but if i'm telling you that the two pilots in a plane. not getting along with each other

you will not be very happy to sit in the couch even if you sit in first class and you're on the plane. people are nervous when they see that the two major countries in the world are in confrontation you can call it negotiations or you can call it confrontation and the difference between them is very delicate and i very much hope that the trade discussions today between china and the u.s. will move in the right way and you would be surprised once there is a positive indication how much the mood in the world and the financial markets is the best referendum about the mood how much is the mood going to be picked up but how can you have a win win situation because someone will have to get in it or china or america i

don't feel like anyone's wanting band there will be a win win because the nature of trade is a win win project the nature of trade is i trade with you you trade with me both of us are better off and therefore if we upset that equation both of us are worse off and the trade negotiation of the skirmishes about who gets more of the overall benefits and we need to be careful that the two sides would not get less from the overall benefits that are of the possibility they are genuine issues and each side must give up on the less important parts i'll give you for example in the us there is a very strong feeling that especially when it comes to technology the property rights on technology that china is not playing fair game

in taking the action come election rights so for us it's a very important thing this will be the key. then the bread and butter that they sell in the camera sense a one way rind doesn't seem like anyone's trying to figure out what to do with it i mean it's a key it's a key issue but it's not getting resolved well you have a different leadership today in the u.s. in a different leadership today in china. both are. not so different but then event the important point is that. that's why it is tough but are really the stakes are very very high the only way to justify a trajectory that needs to be taken is by recognizing the damage of the alternative trajectory and i don't know what intelligence i'll tell you what's the worst

fascination fragmentation trade war listen the world is very complex so if the us is imposing tariffs on china china is importing less inputs from the rest of asia allies of the us the incidence of the in the wall is very different than what is intended you try to them a china you'd have a geo your allies you have an issue the world is much more complex you have europe along along the way i really think that. the populations of the world will benefit much more from openness than from closed franco thank you very much for this interview all the best of luck with that thank you.

there's not any left essentially in the earth's mantle i predict as i've said before that was the central banks find it difficult to buy any gold whatsoever they're going to start buying bitcoin to manage that point to their strategic reserves russia has been rumored as a possibly the first to go down this pass and we don't know the details but some one of the major central banks will start putting big along with gold into their strategic reserves and this will set off a mad scramble for bar gold and but. what politicians do. they put themselves on the line they get accepted or rejected.

so when you want to be president i'm sure. most somewhat want. you to go on to be close with what the before three in the morning can't be good. i'm interested always in the waters in the. first city. in twenty four to you know bloody revolution to. the demonstrations going from being relatively peaceful political protests to be creasing move on to revolution is always spontaneous or is it you know we hear i mean your list put me in the. school and you go to the full value. president recalls the events of twenty fourteen. days until. it invested over five billion dollars to assist ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic. led

. was. to was. very simple you cannot wish away no deal on that you say the european union or you out a deal this really does feel a bit like groundhog day. the prime minister presents had threats to plan b. the parliament after plan a was resoundingly rejected but its critics say she has failed to make any real changes since. the taliban says it was behind an attack on a military training base in afghanistan that killed more than one hundred military personnel. and. it's only accuses france of treating african countries like colonies fueling the migrant crisis plus. the.