a wonderful guest on our show last week neal says the u.n. city in copenhagen as an interesting idea i guess is now i'm glad you enjoyed watching the show about it neal and finally lens they said come on scotland we're a small country with huge not to sources we have more than dead white cast off our independence thank you lindsay now in the commons last tuesday the high sorted first to avoid leaving it without a deal and then forty four to deal which was not even on the u.d.p. and table this is how the two men protectionists try to explain to the country what exactly has transpired last night the house did vote to reject no deal but it also voted to do what the european union has consistently asked this house to do since it rejected the withdrawal agreement which was to say what it was that the u.k. wanted to see change last night a majority in this house voted to can maintain the commitment to know how our border to you know is not an island to leave the european union with

a deal and to set out to the european union what it will take to ensure that this house can support a deal that is a change the backstop that is what i will be taking back to the european union that is what we will be doing to ensure that we can avoid no deal he stands up regularly and says he doesn't want no deal i'm working to ensure we get a deal suppose every move by this. is the one who will risk taking over to your enemy and mr speaker i would be great for the prime minister would actually acknowledge that the house has voted to take no deal off the table. and can she assured the house that if she is unable to secure any legal changes to the backstop that she would work to find a solution based on a comprehensive customs union a strong single market deal and the guaranteeing of rights and protections rozza don't go back to the alternative that she's been through. reckoning everybody was

for months and months which was to crash out without any deal whatsoever and so finally we have a position from the house of commons but it is neither the position previously adopted by the prime minister and there's no if they know that it is a position which will be accepted by the european union so it may be about to write the whole medicare idea yet again in two weeks time well it's already fifty hold under this strain alex took the someone likely to know the answer i'm no delighted to be joined by peter oborne the political columnist of the daily mail and of the middle east i peter welcome to the excitement show thank you very much alex though you people one of the three really of number of commentators has been pretty favorable to to reserve may's approach to the european negotiations are you still on board are you starting to have your doubts that comes a point in a race and sometimes you the jockey wants to get off the horse and the moment when

mrs may's deal which i supported strongly i felt it was the best deal and the only deal was defeated by a small matter of two hundred twenty votes in the house of commons. we were it was the moment when you got to ask has mrs may got a future and she's looking increasingly desperate now as she finds tries to find ways which would keep some version of her deal alive in other words we're now in a situation which is completely and utterly precedented this is a. desperate measures in desperate times and many ways of measures which look completely impossible in the idea behind tuesday's brady amendment was there is that you know we negotiate with europe well you know mrs mate signed off a deal with europe in december and. reopening the go see asians at this stage is desperation and also he. a million. because she's had to change her mind about

something yet again it's also humiliating for britain which comes cap in hand to europe so i acquire an easy about this week well it was quite a strong performance last tuesday at the sparks book but there's no doubt the prime minister was uneasy with a number of m.p.'s made the point why should we support your deal with you no longer support and i think is exactly right. and i think that the she has a central dilemma she can either go with the conservative solution conservative party solution try a solution which keeps the conservative party together or widen. and what mrs may appears to be doing the behind the entire strategy this week is the idea that mrs may is trying to keep the conservative party together the conservative party is split wide open over europe more than ever before more than over maastricht there are affectively to conservative parties with two separate whipping operations of

those the european european reform group which has its own leader and leadership and whips and then you have the official conservative party and then you also of course have the remaining when the provisionals the provisional wing if you like although they're all balled up rather grand provisionals and mrs may is concentrating on finding a formula which will keep the conservative party together even though it doesn't look at all likely that this formula which involves getting fresh concessions from europe has any kind of bearing on what brussels can or will deliver and look to those the inner workings of the console to marty better than you do commentator certainly is this a big mystery to me it's been an influence as was suggested last weekend as is hazard for saying look you've got to keep the party together or course up to this week mr phillips has been us like

a mysterious figure seems very un political you know the city jan two who was very supportive of the prime minister but but kept his head down you know and he and suddenly this week he's entered the political fray for the first time as an activist a somebody position pushing forward a position and that position is the position the tory party position the he a lifelong tory activist it needs to be said like his wife the prime minister is pushing forward a scheme which keeps on board the european research group keeps on board the far right of the party. and he's against a wider engagement towards the rest of the house of commons so you're saying base of the prime minister's choice is almost an impossible one and you can either keep the party together reach a deal that can't be a deal because you don't would agree to it alternatively you can risk for actually the conservative party for a deal that europe would agree to but reaching across the floor of the house it's

exactly the position i'm trying to explain exactly and so this is a major gamble it's her last attempt this week to to stop the conservative party from splitting in a way that didn't quite do over the corn laws in the in eight hundred forty six didn't quite do a tariff reform at the start of the twentieth century she knows she they were right do of mass trick in the night and then nearly happened over maastricht and didn't and she knows that she may be the prime minister who under the abbe's opens up and that becomes the two parties or two conservative parties all conservative party actually dies this is a possibility so close to the guarded and for some in the conservative party might call continental europe what it's what is the rest of europe and looking at this what do we make of it do they understand the know what's going on are they just exasperated or would be really late so in plain towards of the range i don't i

think you really should ask mr barney a and the european to go see mr young i think they are sensible people but mr barley for example bishop ali was a french ghost brought up in a pretty hard political school commission says if only they would tell us what they want it's the nearest i've ever seen to that particular political information come to almost compassion. sure but please go to the state is actually feeling a bit sorry for the british to go shit i think he's in ash moment of nash is becoming a moment of nash. embarrassments the failure to to grab a key here and position i said that's why i supported mrs may's deal i mean she struck a deal with europe she went back to her party which refused to back it and now what we're seeing is a very. desperate last minute attempt to to reach some form

of some of the some way of resolving it within the conservative party the underlying threat is and it we are very very close to reaching that moment is mrs may losing control not just of the house of commons but of the conservative party to a longstanding political commentator i was watching as probably you were the health of the b.b.c. that was the weekend where he was saying that he was asked about martial law preparations did not say don't be absolved don't be ridiculous the deck of us had laid in the newspaper you actually said it's not a farce lane of concentration but you know we're not concentrating on that we did darkie but it was part of the planning contingency i never think would be the situation with a cop the minister wasn't dismissing out of hand any sort of preparation regardless how low in the priorities for martial law you're quite right i'm in this is we're

lead we're living in an age of wonders and exactly right i mean i think that that tone because they want to frighten tory m.p.'s in the line of this kind of talk at the same time as we were creating panic it's a it's a very complex and dangerous situation but can you civil to mislead fate and not intimidate two different sets of parliamentarians one set a parliamentarian is with the prospect of no deal another set of parliamentarians with the prospect of staying in europe can you pull that off of fate do different groups of people some ulterior slee with different threats i think. the other third threat they want to see is waving in front of her turia pieces the collapse and the end that of the service of parties are all kinds of threats being made and i think that you can see last week that they sort of works you know they've brought an awful lot of hard liners into into behind behind the behind the official story line

but it's it's very difficult now for the believe it was coming next and sure for print up the free possible threats which of these three threats the fragmentation of the tory party the prospect of no deal with all the attendant difficulties or the prospect of staying in europe in some form which of these three threats is the one most likely to be realized i think that the. most likely outcome of all of this is that britain will remain at least part of the customs union and the some form of deal will be struck with europe and i think i think say that it's because there is only really one majority in the house of commons at the moment and that is against a no deal exit and so that is where we will probably end up and that consequences for the cohesion of the concert upon no deal exit

is what a significant number of the tory m.p.'s want and so mrs may is forced into talking towards much softer which is the place to go from here it's likely to lead to the collapse to the fragmentation of the conservative party so if the most likely outcome is tacking towards the natural commons majority it's in a sense is that not muddling through and that often what happens are not a very british crisis that those are muddling through at the end of the day and in a few years time people look back on what an apple is all the talk of of a huge cataclysm is probably it's a nice point that i hope you're right it's actually good sense prevails that all these dire warnings of bomb again didn't tend to not to cap will look let's hope so but at the moment there isn't feels it feels really quite. national history

it will go to thank you very much indeed thank you very much. joined us after the break where we brought in a debate to look at how the parliamentary dramas are causing strains across the political parties with even. though. i think one of the main reasons why now we're working on a stump nationalist the position because. it's totally different organization compared to the previous issue or so i was sure so there's still. some fifteen. to all previous q. so. it's one of the best national want to do them in the.

united states. and it's tax on other countries. economic sanctions or are often just the beginning another thing you like to do is place some military pressure on the countries that you're talking about. and there must be an effort to demonize that country and the leader of that country . has a responsibility for the head. and we need to make rules for the rest. because without us there will be.

welcome back all of the issues around brics it are forcing new alliances among and between the political parties most surprising of all perhaps was this week's mopeds compromise between the warring wings of the tory party here for examples of the spectrum of use among across political parties what she's asking the house to do again today is to is certainly a dog i'm a shows that the government has signed up to at the last moment and to say that that should be the route that we should take shortly that illustrates the precise problem that this house has had throughout the purpose of my vendor to make it clear to us to give the space to this house to find where the majority live can i reassure my right honorable friend that the purpose of the amendment and the bill is not to fix any particular time for any extension or even to decide now what's an extension of article fifty should be it is actually simply to give the house the

ability to do so at the end of february and i agree that nobody wants to see any unnecessary yeah so how are the biggest parties taking the bricks strain alex asked lembit or pick from our car cart and then to examine the parliamentary events particular breaks causing tensions within the political parties are talking to one time m.p. commentator lead that opec welcome back to that would solve ensure great to be back so let's start with the the big news of the week yet again another a mother of two newborn is the conservative party going to hold together for votes they've split on europe before we had one nation tories a long time ago and this has always been an achilles heel for the conservatives there's a very good chance there will be a split they held it together in order to prevent general election they voted against the most. no confidence so they do know how to protect their own interests

but just look at the rifts you see these amendments coming from their own ranks the thing thrashing about like an uncontrollable i don't know how those pipes or something are and we just don't know who's going to get wet next in this this is the spray of politics so is the result of this week it is it going to more like the tory party together or is the only thing we can agree on self-preservation a new election it is actually quite impressive that they're holding it together as a party somehow and the fact that theory's amaze still the prime minister when she was described as a dead woman walking by the former chancellor george osborne and that was before she got beat them opposed to votes armed before she survives somehow survived to no confidence motions won in parliament where the conservatives were definitely in self-preservation mode but also one of their own party she only defeated her

opponents there by two to one c still in position so she's hanging on the tory party although riven by a dispute is still there as some sort of parliamentary force not really go he said that labor party because we're so interesting and sate this week that liberals problems of tensors are not just to do a bracks on the immigration bill so in very curious up there's a problem of two narratives in the conservative party but the labor party look like they have got a narrative at all they've moved away from from telling a story to trying to work out how a story should be told one cheek and the process light that you can lose the message and i would say a lot of members of the public simply don't know what the labor party is up to the labor party has lost it's not at all i think they have lost their narrative at the moment while jeremy corbyn himself is fairly consistent once again there are some contradictions there whether he's actually a secret bracks a taro or a remain or the difficulty is they're not projecting a clear single mess. edge you got two messages from the conservative party you can

kind of understand those but it's almost impossible to understand what labor would be doing if they were in charge but isn't the crowd good idea for the leader of the opposition basically to keep his head out and not to be too specific doesn't that the the tried and tested form the last thing you want to do as an opposition is to pretend you're the government what you're trying to get is an election and let people fail know your policy is that if politics is chess then it's good to keep your next moves a secret but he's not helped by the fact that his own front bench is shouting what those next moves should be without necessarily having an end game they're not looking for checkmate they're just playing the pieces on the board and guessing what's going to be successful for them and the reason it doesn't work is because it just makes the labor party seem very uncertain in terms of what they would do jerry corbin can answer that question but then he shouted down by his own side that doesn't look good and frankly with all of these problems in the conservative party

the labor party should be ten percentage points ahead and they're not but then that a balance parliament was co-author of that was a favorite term the liberals once time but the balance parliament the liberal conservative part is only first and second among equals over the party is a minority so how do we should all party doing the liberal democrats of the holding together for this this but except for i don't know the hot seat expect the liberal democrats to be sweeping up the forty eight percent of the electorate who voted to remain they pretty much run their general election campaign a couple of years ago the one that reason may went in to win and lost the lib dems actually also lost they went down a percentage point when you would think they could have hoovered up all of those disaffected remain as a lost sale of a parliamentary revival of the liberal force so there is absolutely no sign of it they've crept up just into double figures in the opinion polls. but look at the

confusion there stephen lloyd a former chief whip of the liberal democrats resigned that webb resigned to himself because he couldn't hold the line that is the rate the letter to say what the party leaders and we'll find out in this biography but i suppose you have to do something like that so he is not sitting as an independent his resignation meant that the liberal democrats went down by eight percent by that single and i was able to break that wasn't as it was probably well he i think he's been quite pragmatic because he thinks he has to do that to hold his seat it's not easy to do as the dam the party's lost its critical mass in many ways and they hardly figure in the report tars now so i think he's made that decision on very practical and pragmatic grounds but it just shows even in the dems you've got these problems and if you go back to what vince cable who's generally pretty capable heavyweight has said about the european union and stuff he's contradicted the position that the lib dems are putting forward to put forward now that they're just not presenting

a credible alternative and it wasn't voted for in the general election not so long ago thoughtlessly northwest get the dog for some the house of commons that the scottish national party of the holding together on this european issue it's a lot easier to be a commentator and criticize everyone i'm going to continue in that vein because once again the s. and p. who had a phenomenal result a few years ago and then you know more than most and lost some of their position they're still holding the fort pretty effectively some feel that they've allowed themselves to be drawn into this massive current this this huge raging torrent of bracks set and they might be taking their eye off the ball a little bit in terms of the wider agenda now i and when the germans are being independents and proving that independents might be for the best there's there's a gamble to be played and i respect this is a judgment call not a principle called because their narrative is quite clear everybody knows. they

support independence and you could say if this whole bracks thing goes south if we end up with a no deal yes tempi could then say we that our best to prevent this now there's only one thing left to do another referendum on independence and they could win it so i can see what they're trying to do not everybody in the s.m.p. privately is completely comfortable with it but it's a respectable game plan at least they have a game plan and it's rather clearer than the game plan for the conservatives labor all the lib dems have at the the other parties and with the democratic unionist of it who haven't more publicity in the black suit vote that with just about every relatively small parliamentary party in history if they play well so lesson on how to do coalition right how to wag the dog he needs to watch the d u p a they are brilliant as is the tail wagging the conservative dog unquestionably because that can serve a dog is chasing its tail and they're chasing the d.p.

because they only survive their confidence motion in the house of commons because they they've bought off the d.p. the democratic union is brilliant at getting money and funding for northern ireland they are fantastic of it because they've learnt to do this across twenty or thirty years and in that sense they've converted the bracks it chaos into something of a bonanza for northern ireland if there's one winning party in the commons at the moment it's the d.p. and it's almost impossible to see how they can lose because if they need another boost their mind every one of the backstop is no backstop at all so other constitutional lessons and this blacks fogl was are described as we've described in scotland it doesn't tell us something about a disconnect in parliament people would proportional representation one of your great campaigns of the past what would that be some sort of solution is something really to change about the nature of parliament in order for be able to digest this challenge of by. there's

a temptation to assume as we often do in politics that we have to change the rules to get a better outcome i don't buy into this time we have to change the thinking there are so many in the so many different parties who have just lost their relationship with the general public who want it simple who want to understand where we're going and want to get it done that the party which comes along and does those three things can excel and once again let me remind you that's what you get did you can derive them but they won their core objective which was brek set and they did it by keeping it simple we can argue about how accurate their phrases were but their narrative that phrase again was exactly what was required at the time to win the referendum and others have done that too but i wouldn't recommend we change the constitution we just need to change the way things are presented and no one's doing a very good job of that across or at the moment of failure when brought but the million little question what is that even given us wherever there are we heading for where having for breakfast it's because bracks it means practice it and when

someone actually defines it we might just get there or find that gold at the end of the rainbow but you might need a rainbow coalition to arrive at the moment we haven't got it over it beggars sort of pleasure. and so to the so may has claimed her best political week of this parliament trouble is that the deal she has gained a cent for is not a deal that seems to be available it is rather reneging from the agreement she how my vote over an eighteen month period with the european union the crucial backstop is being confined to a footnote of history to be replaced by some unspecified broad brush of town to the arrangements problem is the european negotiators have a habit of sticking to the fine print and i'm not interested in a broad brush after all the fine print was there for a reason and that reason was to govern t. and open border nylander not all suck up stances whatever happens in the trade

discussions to come it was as european parliament sports best and give a horse that remained in the sis week and then shouldn't sposi which to be effective has to be saf than it is a very open question whether the majority of nearly sixty didn't for the twenty two committee amendment from tony good on the game brady can survive the outcome of another round of negotiations where one sate quite understandably there's not really want to reopen what has already been painstakingly agreed it does not all go to well most likely the having survived aids of january the prime minister will soon face the ides of february and then finally the ides of march and breaks it day itself and so for the thais and myself and all of the sure it's good bye for now.

me me me me let me you know use my. phone she looks almost. doesn't want to know most of us to be in yours and yours was notable to be very much what would you. please the please there was but i did my best was nice though i'd. like to use the medium this is. good for the. cheese get. to know it's a movie in your view because. from.

its rather stand here harmless and. hopeful on one small. part of a good cigar are more trouble for the hour rather than a profit off the fourth to care that. only a lad can but i'm going to cut him a new cut and keep an eye on what i don't lose a child first of all that it. will have banked up. on me one word then i want to punish a little subtle it does show the. number set up around the hey how you want to do

it. get this whole fool place for sure gummy i knew there. you have them and they are charming to me this is the british. super. model for them after the well fuck around mr it took for a gym and lawyer for hope that are fairly in their court. venezuela's president slams the u.s. for promoting a fake version of events in the country and aggression while washington says the opposition there has only just begun the fight for freedom. and families in rural france demand to know why over the last decade and launch a number of children have been born without limbs but the government report due on the probable causes we went to meet some of those affected i want to know what she was born my.