and the guaranteeing of rights and protections rather than go back to the alternative that she's been threatening everybody with for months and months which was to crash out without any deal whatsoever and so finally we have a position from the house of commons but it is neither the position previously adopted by the prime minister and there's no if they know that it is a position which will be accepted by the european union so it may be about to write the whole medicare idea yet again in two weeks time well it's already fifty hold under this strain alex took the film on likely to know the answer i'm no delighted to be joined by peter oborne the political columnist of the daily mail and of the middle east i peter welcome to the excitement show thank you very much alex you people one of the three really of number of commentators who's been pretty favorable to to reserve may's approach to the european negotiations are you still on board are you starting to have your doubts that comes a point in

a race and sometimes you jockey wants to get off the horse and the moment when mrs may's deal which i supported strongly i felt it was the best deal and the only deal was defeated by a small matter of two hundred twenty votes in the house of commons. we were it was the moment when you got to ask has mrs may got a future and she's looking increasingly desperate now as she finds tries to find ways which would keep some version of her deal alive in other words we're now in a situation which is completely and utterly precedented this is a. desperate measures in desperate times and many ways of measures which look completely impossible and the idea behind tuesday's brady amendment was there is that you know we negotiate with europe well you know mrs mate signed off a deal with europe in december and i've seen. reopening negotiations at this stage

is desperation and also humiliating it's humiliating for her because she's had to change her mind about something yet again it's also humiliating for britain which comes cap in hand to to europe so i acquired easy about this week with a little it was quite a strong performance last tuesday the sparks book but there's no doubt the prime minister was uneasy with a number of m.p.'s made the point why should we support your deal with you no longer support and that is exactly right. and i think that the she has a central dilemma she can either go with the conservative solution conservative party solution try a solution which keeps the conservative party together or widen. and what mrs may appears to be doing the behind the entire strategy this week is the idea that mrs may is trying to keep the conservative party together the conservative party is split wide open over europe more than ever before more than over maastricht there

are affected two conservative parties with two separate whipping operations of those the european european reform group which has its own leader and leadership and whips and then you have the official conservative party and then you also of course have the remaining when the provisionals the provisional wing if you like although they're all balled up rather grand provisionals and mrs may is concentrating on finding a formula which will keep the conservative party together even though it doesn't look at all likely that this formula which involves getting fresh concessions from europe has any kind of bearing on what brussels can or will deliver and look to those the inner workings of the console to marty better than you do commentators certainly is this a big mystery to me it's been an influence as was suggested last weekend as is hazard for saying look you've got to keep the party together or course up to this

week mr philip has been us like a mysterious figure seems very un political you know the city gen two who was very supportive of the prime minister but but kept his head down you know and he and suddenly this week he's entered the political fray for the first time as an activist somebody position pushing forward a position that position is the position the tory party position the is he a lifelong tory activist it needs to be said like his wife the prime minister is pushing forward a scheme which keeps on board the european research group keeps on board the far right of the party. and he's against a wider engagement towards the rest of the house of commons so you're saying base of the prime minister's choice is almost an impossible one and you can either keep the party together reach a deal that can't be a deal because you don't would agree to it or alternatively you can risk for

actually the conservative party for the deal that europe would agree to by reaching across the floor of the house it's exactly the position i'm trying to explain exactly and so this is a major gamble it's her last attempt this week to to stop the conservative party from splitting in a way that didn't quite do over the corn laws in the in eight hundred forty six didn't quite do it with tariff reform at the start of the twentieth century she knows she they were right do a mass trick in the night and then nearly happened over maastricht and didn't and she knows that she may be the prime minister who under the abbott's opens up and that becomes the two parties or two conservative parties all conservative party actually dies this is a possibility so close to the guarded and for some in the conservative party might call continental europe what it's what is the rest of europe and looking at this

what do we make of it really understand the the what's going on of the just exasperated or would be really late to in claim to wards of the range i don't i think you really should ask mr barney a and the european to go see mr young i think they are sensible people but mr barley for example is a french ghost brought up in a pretty hard political school commission says if only they would tell us what they want it's the nearest i've ever seen to that particular political inclination come to almost compassion sure but please go to the state is actually feeling a bit sorry for the british negotiators i think he's in ash moment of nash is becoming a moment of nash. no embarrassments the failure to grab a key here and position i said that's why i supported mrs may's deal i mean she struck a deal with europe she went back to her party which refused to back it and now what

we're seeing is a very. desperate last minute attempt to to reach some form of some of the some way of resolving it within the conservative party the underlying threat is and it we are very very close to reaching that moment is mrs may losing control not just of the house of commons but of the conservative party to a longstanding political commentator i was watching as probably you were the health b.b.c. that was the weekend where he was saying that he was asked about martial law preparations did not say don't be absolved don't be ridiculous the dickless headline in the newspaper you actually said it's not. the label of concentration you know we're not concentrating on that we did die but it was part of the planning contingency i just never think would be the situation where a cop the minister wasn't dismissing out of hand any sort of preparation regardless

how low in the priorities for martial law you're quite right in this is we lead we're living in an age of wonders and exactly right i mean i think that they're torn because they want to frighten tory m b's into line with this kind of talk at the same time as with creating panic it's a it's a very complex and dangerous situation but can you civil to mislead frighten not intimidate two different sets of parliamentarians one set of parliamentarians with the prospect of no deal and another set of parliamentarians with the prospect of staying in europe can you pull that off of freight do different groups of people some ulterior slee with different weights i think. the other third threat they want to see is waving in front of her turia pieces the collapse and the end that of the service of parties are all kinds of threats being made and i think that you can see

last week that they sort of works you know they wrote an awful lot of hard liners into into behind behind the behind the official story line but it's it's very difficult now for the believe it was coming next i'm sure for print up the three possible threats which of these three threats the fragmentation of the tory party the prospect of no deal with all the attendant difficulties and all the prospect of staying in europe in some form which of these three threats is the one most likely to be realized i think that the most likely outcome of all of this is that britain will remain at least part of the customs union. and that some form of deal will be struck with europe and i think i think that i say this because there is only really one majority in the house of commons at the moment and that is against a no deal exit and so that is where we will probably end up and that

consequence is for the confusion of the concert a plan to say oh no deal x. it is what a significant number of the tory m.p.'s want and so mrs may is forced into talking towards a much softer bracks which is the. place to go from here it's likely to lead to the collapse to the fragmentation of the conservative party so if the most likely outcome is tacking towards the natural commons majority it's in a sense is that not muddling through. but often what happens are not a very british trace are still those are muddling through at the end of the day and in a few years time people look back on what an f. was all that talk of of a huge cataclysm is probably it's a nice point that's i hope you're right it's actually good sense prevails that all these dire warnings of bombing games and tend to not to cap will work let's

hope so but at the moment that isn't how it feels it feels really quite frightening moments in our national history they're over thank you very much indeed thank you very much let's join us after the break where we brought in a debate to look at how the parliamentary dramas are causing strains across the political parties with even. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy foundation let it be an arms race is on offer and spearing drama. to follow to the only really i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical time time to sit down and talk. so. i think the one of the main reason why now we're working on the

stump nationalist of the position because. it's put two different organizations. to the previous issue osogbo sure still do but also shifting. to all previous q so. it's one of the best national lots of them in the. united states and he's head of. news and it's a tax on other countries. economic sanctions or are often just the beginning another thing you like to do is place some military pressure on the countries a talking about. and

there has to be an effort to demonize that country and the leader of that country. believe i am a responsibility for the game. and we need to make rules for the rest. because without us there would be. welcome back all of the issues around brics it are forcing new alliances among and between the political parties most surprising of all perhaps was this week's mopeds compromise between the warring wings of the tory party here are some examples of the spectrum of use among across political parties what she's asking the house to do again today is to is suddenly a dog up a measure that the government has signed up to at the last moment and just say that

that should be the route that we should take shortly that illustrates the precise problem this house has had throughout the purpose of my member to make it clear to is to give the space to this house to find where the majority live can i reassure my right honorable friend that the purpose of the amendment and the bill is not to fix any particular time for any extension or even to decide now what's an extension of an article fifty should be it is actually simply to give the house the ability to do so at the end of february and i agree that nobody wants to see any unnecessary yeah so how are the biggest parties taking the bricks strain alex asked lembit orpik to mark karr card and then to examine the parliamentary events particular breaks causing tensions within the political parties are talking to one

time m.p. the commentator lead that opec welcome back to their would seven children to be back so let's start with the the big news of the week yet again another a mother of two newborn is the conservative party going to hold together through books they've split on europe before we had one nation tories a long time ago and this has always been an achilles heel for the conservatives there's a very good chance there will be a split they held it together in order to prevent general election they voted against the most. i have no confidence so they do know how to protect their own interests but just look at the rifts you see these amendments coming from their own ranks the thing thrashing about like an uncontrollable i don't know how those pipes or something are and we just don't know who's going to get wet next in this this spray of politics so is the result of this week it is it going to more like the tory party together or is the only thing they can agree on

self-preservation a new election it is actually quite impressive that they're holding it together as a party somehow and the fact that theory's amaze still the prime minister when she was described as a dead woman walking by the former chancellor george osborne and that was before she got beat them oppose it devotes arms before she survives somehow survive to no confidence motions one in parliament where the conservatives were definitely in self-preservation mode but also one in her own party she only defeated her opponents there by two to one see still in position so she's hanging on the tory party although riven by a dispute is still there as some sort of parliamentary force not very good he's i believe a party because we're so interesting and sate this week that labor's problems and tensions are not just to do a bracks on the immigration bill something very curious up there is a problem of two narratives in the conservative party but the labor party look like

they have got a narrative at all they've moved away from from telling a story to trying to work out how a story should be told one cheek and the process light that you can lose the message and i would say a lot of members of the public simply don't know what the labor party is up to the most the labor party has lost it's not at all i think they have lost their narrative at the moment while jeremy corbyn himself is fairly consistent once again there are some contradictions there whether he's actually a secret bracks a tear all or remain or the difficulty is they're not projecting a clear single mess. which you got two messages from the conservative party you can kind of understand those but it's almost impossible to understand what labor would be doing if they were in charge. good idea for the leader of the opposition basically to keep his head out and not to be too specific doesn't that the tried and tested form the last thing you want to do as an opposition is to pretend you're the government what you're trying to get is an election and let people fail know your policy is that if politics is chess then it's good to keep your next moves

a secret but he's not helped by the fact that his own front bench is shouting what those next moves should be without necessarily having an endgame they're not looking for checkmate they're just playing the pieces on the board and guessing what's going to be successful for them and the reason it doesn't work is because it just makes the labor party seem very uncertain in terms of what they would do jerry corbin can answer that question but then he shouted down by his own side that doesn't look good and frankly with all of these problems in the conservative party the labor party should be ten percentage points ahead and they're not but then the balance parliament let's call it that that was a favorite term the liberals once time but the balance parliament the liberal herself to parties that only first and second among equals over the party is a minority so how do we should all party doing the liberal democrats of the holding together through this this but except for i don't know but the party the expect the

liberal democrats to be sweeping up the forty eight percent of the electorate who voted to remain they pretty much ran their general election campaign a couple of years ago the one that reason may went in to win and lost the lib dems actually also lost they went down a percentage point when you would think they could have hoovered up all of those disaffected remain as a lost sale of a parliamentary devival and liberal force so there is absolutely no sign of it they've crept up just into double figures in the opinion polls. but look at the confusion there stephen lloyd a former chief whip of the liberal democrats resigned that webb resigned to himself because he couldn't hold the line as the rate the lead up to what the party leaders and we'll find out in this biography but i suppose you have to do something like about so he is not sitting as an independent his resignation meant that the liberal democrats went down by eight percent by that single and i was able to break

that wasn't as it was probably x. well he i think he's been quite pragmatic because he thinks he has to do that to hold his seat it's not easy to do as the dam the party's lost its critical mass in many ways and they hardly figure in the report tars now so i think he's made that decision on very practical and pragmatic grounds but it just shows even in the dems you've got these problems and if you go back to what vince cable who's generally pretty capable heavyweight has said about the european union and stuff he's contradicted the position that the lib dems are putting forward to put forward now so they're just not presenting a credible alternative and it wasn't voted for in the general election not so long ago thought let's look northwest at the stock force of the house of commons that the scottish national party of they holding together on this european issue it's a lot easier to be a commentator and criticize everyone i'm going to continue in that vein because once again the s. and p. who had a phenomenal result a few years ago and then you know more than most and lost some of their position

they're still holding the fort pretty effectively some feel that they've allowed themselves to be drawn into this massive current this this huge raging torrent of bracks set and they might be taking their eye off the ball a little bit in terms of the wider agenda now i and when the germans are being in a balance and proving that independence might be for the best there's there's a gamble to be played and i respect this is a judgment call not a principle called because their narrative is quite clear everybody knows. they support independence and you could say if this whole breck's thing goes south if we end up with a no deal yes tempi could then say we did our best to prevent this now there's only one thing left to do another referendum on independence and they could win it so i can see what they're trying to do not everybody in the s.m.p. privately is completely comfortable with it but it's a respectable game plan at least they have a game plan and it's rather clearer than the game plan for the conservatives labor

all the lib dems have at the the other parties and with the democratic unionist of it who haven't more publicity in the breaks that vote the just over eddie relatively small part of a party in history if they play well so lesson on how to do coalition right how to wag the dog he needs to watch the deal you pay they are brilliant house as is the tail wagging the conservative dog unquestionably because that conserve a dog is chasing its tail and they're chasing the d.p. because they only survived their confidence motion in the house of commons because they they bought off the d.p. the democratic union is brilliant at getting money and funding for not doubt they are fantastic on it because they've learned to do this across twenty or thirty years and in that sense they've converted the breck set chaos into something of a bonanza for northern ireland if there's one winning party in the commons at the

moment it's the d.p. and it's almost impossible to see how they can lose because if they need another boost from mind everyone at the backstop is no backstop at all so other constitutional lessons and this breaks that fogl was described of his would describe it in scotland it doesn't tell us something about a disconnect in parliament people would proportional representation one of your great campaigns of the past what would that be some sort of solution is something really to change about the nature of parliament in order for be able to digest this challenge of by. there's a temptation to assume as we often do in politics that we have to change the rules to get a better outcome i don't buy into it this time we have to change the thinking there are so many in the so many different parties who have just lost their relationship with the general public who want it simple who want to understand where we're going and want to get it done that the party which comes along and does those three things can excel and once again let me remind you that's what you get did you can

do right them but they won their core objective which was brek set and they did it by keeping it simple we can argue about how accurate their phrases were but their narrative that phrase again was exactly what was required at the time to win the referendum and others have done that too but i wouldn't recommend we change the constitution we just need to change the way things are presented and no one's doing a very good job of that across or at the moment fail we're broke but the million little question what is that even given us where there are we heading for where having for breakfast it because breaks it means practice it and when someone actually defines it we might just get there or find the gold at the end of the rainbow but we might need a rainbow coalition to arrive at the moment we haven't got it over it beggars sort of pleasure. and so it to be so may has claimed her best political week of this parliament trouble is that the deal she has gained a cent for is not a deal that seems to be available it is rather reneging from the agreement she how

my vote over an eighteen month period with the european union the crucial backstop is being confined to a footnote of history to be replaced by some unspecified broad brush of talent of arrangements problem as the european negotiators have a habit of sticking to the fine print and i'm not interested in a broad brush after all the fine print was there for a reason and that reason was to garden tea and open border nylander not all soft goods dances whatever happens in the trade discussions to come it was as european parliament sports best and give a horse that remained in the sis week and then shouldn't sposi which to be effective has to be saffron it is a very open question that a majority of nearly sixty didn't for the twenty two committee amendment from today grown the game brady can survive the outcome of another round of negotiations where one sate quite understandably there's not really want to reopen what has already

been painstakingly agreed it does not all go to well most likely the having survived aids of january the prime minister will soon face the ides of february and then finally the ides of march and breaks it day itself and so for the tires and myself and all of the sure it's good bye for now. the millennialists i think are trying to restore the rights of individuals rights of humans in the face of this dystopian nightmare and that's probably why the big

claim price is being held back from crossing over twenty five thirty thousand dollars for going is because of the rise of fail they all say if she is successful and humans have a agency that's a net negative for big coin in the short term but i will say because there's a lot of people that don't want her seizing power in any meaningful way. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy confrontation let it be an arms race off and spearing dramatic development only mostly i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical time time to sit down and talk. i mean i mean i did you know where you know you see. on t.v. it's one of. those whom you know most of it goes to but in the

years and years it was notable just you know. not but you know. the ways the ways the i did my best diligent eyes of the white. people. use the media this is. one of those. these good. news from there you know you. should read the stand. well from what i saw. that our men are more trouble than they are rather democrats that are for four years and now. i'm

going to let them but i'm going to cut him any such and and keep an eye on what i have to lose each other for twelve full years and it is living. a long life and i want my machine but also. mind the. numbers i would hate for not doing. this whole for. the i knew you didn't pay on time in syria says. british. civil. law for the africa will fuck around with respect to for jim and then for hope that our friends in the. evening.

i know oh i see. i. said as well as opposition leader secures the supports of the european parliament as he agitates for the overthrow of the troubled nation socialist president. germany france and the u.k. establish a mechanism to swerve u.s. sanctions on the trading with iran using a new normal dollar trade channel. families in room from demand to know why over the last decade a large number of children that were born without limbs the government.