a curve of conflict is shaping up between a. budget and fears of a looming recession who should be worried to talk about this i'm joined by. prime minister and former head of the international monetary fund carlo could. easily. with a new. spy ring to transform europe. how we'll. deal with financial crises and corruption. driving force for change across the whole continent got a look at that early former interim prime minister and former head of the

international monetary fund welcome to the show it's really great to have you with us. thank you mr international monetary fund which. economic growth in two thousand and nineteen is going to be slower than previously expected it would be worried about a collapse of the scale let's say greece. but did they go home and has that dark out for growth all over one percent of g.d.p. the i.m.f. says a zero point six per cent of g.d.p. i think zero point six per growth of zero point six percent of g.d.p. is much more realistic i think that the civi a growth rate of one per se and starting where we are would require a bit stronger exit aeration of growth in the second half of two thousand and nineteen there used almost no way in which there could be such a large acceleration even in achieving a growth rate those zero point six percent in two thousand and nineteen would require an acceleration with the specter what we have seen in the last in the third

quarter of last year ok but they had to point a stat to the countries heavily indebted your daddy's by me italy's debt right now is one point eight trillion euros how will the country manage to take itself a lot of that. no it is a big issue and it definitely is if any become say. there is no growth. i mean the problem was easier to solve in the last few years when growth was about two on one and how percent if if starting in two thousand and sixteen we had kept the public spending caused up in real terms so we don't any cuts with a growth rate of one one and how percent revenues would have increased the and we would have achieved in two thousand and three in one thousand about a budget if growth now stalled and he actually that he's a session on things are going to be very difficult for he thought it was we need to be afraid that increasing the public debt to g.d.p. ratio the public debt to g.d.p.

they both more or less and be with a growth rate of zero point six will still be more or less the stable but if we get into a session then the public debt to g.d.p. ratio was to rising and that is going to create major proverbs that goes these could trigger a call for this crisis so mid december in brussels and then chile approved italy's budget after months of bickering saying graham spending plans were to extravagant now elites being forced to shave billions off its budget at least leadership say the deal doesn't betray the italian people and is good for both sides is that so or is rome just trying to save face. well the government is the leaving something there's no doubt about this it's believing in less than walt that they had promised . but walt said probably is doing the electric on bail was clearly. actually

impossible to to do the war spending problem says. one on the. over the next five year or. so that is an increase in spending for this year they found a temporary spending cuts and so this cea the deficit does not increase very much a yet to be leaving these meaning. medium. income and the leave for more of a dependency is that which would allow people to retire earlier but the so for this year they found some sources of financing without a major increase in the public deficit before two thousand and twenty said mr. polly meant approved any increase in v.a. t. for next year to a level of twenty five percent which would like to raise to twenty six point five

percent in two thousand and twenty one but the government has already said that this is not going to happen so it's not clear wall toward the how the finance it will be found for next year if they don't found a for announcing that the deficit will rise to over three three and harper said the g.d.p. that's the big question because it did the social spending is very big on italy's government president has signed a decree that would bring in basic income for the poor decreased the retirement age and that's all great but are these measures were really needed really are these measures what in doubt italy really needs right now and how would that mash ways brussels a stereotype measures. nine if he thought he had a low public debt to g.d.p. ratio i think he could afford tickets to risk their own the spending on the spending side. particularly in a situation in which the economy is those. bodies are fine even.

if the stimulus spall he says are fine if a god has a low public debt to g.d.p. ratio when the public debt to g.d.p. ratio is so high markets may get to nervous and indeed they did they get nervous when the government was getting a deficit of two point four percent of g.d.p. paramus on a growth rate of one and a how percent which was an achievable the government however. scaled their spending. t.v. to full d.c. or so the deficit and now target to be two per cent with a lower growth rate but there is still a big risk even in achieving these darkness if that they are going to lead to geve that and the deficit these larger and especially in a call to see which the economy is now growing or is a shrinking then there could be a very serious problem i don't foresee these happening i think that hopefully this slowdown of economic activity in europe is temporary. recover but if we

get into a recession it's a major problem. for the us the euro a staring measures proposed and i'm dressed cells because that's what they keep doing for the past ten years it never worked for any single economy in the e.u. why would it work oh are easily. but it doesn't seem to me the browser has been proposing austerity measures for for the last few years. brussels says allowed eataly to one day in an unchanged. declining primary pros primary surpluses the balance net zero into spirit the deficit has been declining very slowly so you open says give it a lot of room for they do a lot of time for you thirty two feet. if that is not does so as they said

if he had kept without the newest it without any cuts in public spending if it that he had month and spend the cost in real terms for the last few years so without any couch we doubt then your state be in a situation in which he thought it was growing now we would have a balanced budget we have lost di and now we get into a situation that is very difficult to to tackle because if the economy is those down exposure any measures will be needed but the exposure in measure will may markets nervous so if you're asking me what is the solution i don't know of this bar or what the solution these unfortunate we may be in getting into a very difficult very doubtful state to measure seen a crisis like in two thousand and eleven it may be necessary that dollar help the economy to grow it at that point but there is no alternative at that point if you get the government can refinance itself. into sets up too high there is no alternative but certainly don't help the economy at that bar do the alternative

where would be the worse and then you get the did you meet we may be getting the same situation where they need the solution is not easy to fight. i want to talk about the refugee crisis caused data and now suggests a declining number of refugees are coming into europe for the first time in a very long time. has deported more migrants than it has led in at least since the start of twenty nineteen juicing this is this is the new government's doing or it's a coincidence with a migrant influx slowing down anyways. no it's not the goal is that there was only the strong decline. in the last part of all the previous government did that there was a radiant eighty per cent of the client on d.m. for us now that it has become a zero because this government has taken a tough stance towards the migrants nada's so this if you ask me as

a citizen is i think that this is because i mean is that even a bit too much because with now the discussion is about these forty seven people. forty seven people to come in with a make obviously much of a difference it was a different study way in every area need to there was almost two hundred thousand people coming in as if there were no borders and now the situation is on the controlled fighting now a bottle of principle about forty seven people i don't think it's very useful unfortunately and most of the it they show the most of the policy discussion any tally in the last few days as before has once again on these forty seven people each of these problems are different we have a problem with the public or cows with their every problem we growth and now everything is focused on these on the seashore even the geisha which at present he

is not the key issue for he thought it was in the past but not that at the moment all right we're going to take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to kind of local time elissa lease farmer former interim prime minister and former head of the international monetary fund discussing growing tensions between easily in brussels stay with us. the u.s. in order to guarantee obeyance by the population world think gauge and stop to tell terry doesn't and that's clearly on the march and the population is ready for it

you know they were all sad to say hope benteke going to get ready to get ready to be controlled. just. goes on and on she knew not. can if you had a way out all of them ok if there. was not going to match the plan a it will be like a bad day i wait for the last day of a good watch that a little more than a bit of. that having. given people. who give the newly married couple what the how do not. assume. when you know they

need the whole corn go before. wow i didn't know what i would not asia was so not in. the form. and we're back with got a local former interim prime minister and former head of the international monetary fund talking about the european future welcome back to the show that i do italy and

ma have been at loggerheads over hosting refugees to be rescued at sea by n.g.o.s like sea watch italy's coalition governments were divided so he was adamantly against and in your rivals but then the five star movement is demaio was open to allowing some rain is this a sign of a larger rift between two parties. there are clearly differences in the political views of these two parties on this issue over immigration as well as on other issues there these were on the element they keep them together one glue that keeps them together and it's in a way this nation a nation at least six feeling and feeling of a position towards a brussels and the european union as the the european union that we have known in the last few years that they say they don't say necessarily that he should not be

in the european union they say we don't want these guys i don't think so we don't want the euro as it is being this is a very important thing that keeps that these two parties together as a kind of glue is this feeling again. that. governed before the peter when they were in power at the same time there are clearly differences between these two parties and and the question is of that you had actually how strong we would be with a group that keeps them to gave it together still be sufficient for a strong us i have myself doubts about these. we don't know it depends all depends a bit on walter mr silvino what you say mr sabina's had on his i don't know well the so-called south which abolishes humanitarian protection status for migraines and makes it easier to share my grandchild their right to remain as already ninety eight protests march sara lee italian mayors who refused to obey the new

legislation now with all the fallout the same below is that is at least a fact of dealing with a refugee issue. which is. as we discussed earlier as being dealt with in the says that the people that are carrying are very few i think that is the creed is tightening a bit because of the show and we. to the people who are already in and there is definitely some problems in terms of a danger and this these me be creating by the again i see this small city as a leash shoe with limited the consequences for the call for economic development for example and yet it is attracting a lot although a lot of what they should if you ask there are different service of what the population believes there was one for example this showed that the majority of the

population believes that it will be a mistake for example to send back of these a forty seven people to leave bia so that the front view on these but definitely in my view all these issues are attracting far too much attention the main problem you need that it is not the immigration we just offer any tools right to stop it but is not the main issue anymore and yet these pap's even those who are already here they are declining anyway the government is saving quite a lot of money this year because the number of people that are. that need to be in these center. is declining and yet that this is attractive far too much at the eighty's so do you think salvini now will deport the tens of thousands who claimed their refugee status on humanitarian grounds before using those people also are going to be deported that is going to be difficult i don't

know i think if they stayed through and that has been made in the bust went in that direction but i don't know what the weather they would be able to to believe is not as the experience also of the united states as shown is not so easy to deport a large number of people you know the cecille odjick all data shows stat if italy were to go down remaining in the european union last in the house of all italians would support staying in. the percentage is actually lower than in the u.k. which is actually leaving and the two major parties that form the current government are skeptics can we expect that italy will also leave inspired by united kingdom or will italy drop the idea learning from the brics it mess. you know there was a there was a survey a few months ago showing that only forty five percent of people wanted to stay in the european union this is how this survey was reported there are parts however

didn't all say that only twenty three per cent wanted to leave so there was simply a very large number of people who had no i don't know so the question now or do you know have a very firm view i think that if they were. and the other surprising thing of that of the survey is that the majority of people actually wanted to continue to use the euro which is sort of enclosed system with a fog that the majority of the no one to the kind of city mother you want to stay only forty four percent want that to stay it will stay there and i think much already because those who wanted to and he was only twenty three percent i believe that the majority of people definitely in it that he want to stay in that you are an authority that you will be a your question is whether they want to do the things that will be necessary for example in terms of public accounts to they would wear that whether they want to do

the things that will be that we stay in do you are the problem how where are your truth is not the water is happening to us through europe but the difficulty that the that he suffered in the first ten years soft and into the yard and now we are sort of catching up about where the fire away from where we should be suggesting his recent visit to war so sad that a european spring is coming to an end and it's going to and the german french axis in here and that italy and poland are expected to be the vanguard of states change that's noble but german french ties in europe aren't based totally on german and french desires but rather on the strengths of their economies can easily in poland when we pulled our weight compared to the powerhouses of europe. seems to. defeat why they figured that the ball and then even. smaller countries can to make a major difference in terms of moving you open your sore throat they can where

varying bead movement that for example. and money would like to have in another direction so i see this kind of coalition as something that can stop change rather than promoting change it into the action for example disadvantaged would like to get all of this however the spam used on a big question mark how well the nationalities the movements that we do in the european into indo-european actions on it's the phone water you read in the newspapers in the service he seems to me that is difficult to it is difficult to believe that there would be a u a pm bottom and donated by the nationalistic forces but they can and they can strengthen themselves quite that all through this back to the past and in this way they can prevent the kind of change of france and germany would like to have the field at the same to meant that boss about the current leaders in poland

austria-hungary i mean this year a skeptic wave will it really be enough like saudi any cess to change gear up is everyone in here are dreaming about a government like italy's or pollens. no i think that is good as is the these guys and of movements and these. are european forces or nationalistic forces i think they can stop the changer but i don't think they came from the meant that he changes the nature of the european union as they do extremely well in the european there in the european elections one thing however that ortiz happening. ease a two or three speed you open so it's possible that one point for germany if you are that gun trees decide to move ahead. with. they came together eight thirty for example and they bring to it to

a different level they kind of integration that's that's possible saw paula will not prevail in change by will not be part of the change that's another scenario mr selby me and mr dimaio have been dragging french officials into a war of words invoking cream of colonial past do you think it might end weak position at home undermined by the yellow vests protests could plain to sell beanies hands. so. those vini and the mio they. mark on this week this would be their strength so it's these are docs from france i don't think. i used to also because they lost one of the most recent one about these. and in the end they're all of the

c.f.a. francona was. was not understood by italian people first of all and did not have the substantive base it i think it was just i think if i start moving perhaps they don't even understand what the war sure that was it was in my you a blunder and we stayed true to it doc frowns on this he said he first saw you when . venial demaio they see france in trouble because all of. your own death can actually help in a new way this has already have celgene in the raw you because a. brussels aat that you would be outed to the tickle me shown towards the when there was a dish of discussing a deficit for next year for the sierra next year that she was already there because a war was happening in france and because of the fact because of the decision.

because of my cause this sea shown to raise the deficit the spending to spend more and raise the debt. in two thousand and nineteen so we already see some consequences of the trouble that mccauley saving these old country so like you said sell meenie hailed the yellow vast anti-government movement in france a success and saying that there's was actually no that was actually that was actually more of the five star movement heard so many actually sat. that france doesn't deserve a president who is again so. he says she supports the people and he she doesn't like because she said against his nation so. the question ease with the budgetary defeat in italy does risk running into its own yellow vests problem. the yellowjackets they had

a show and you know way they are already in power anita so i don't think they are going to be any different stationary need that from that point there we go this i so i mad he said these high level reports and that the all of the fi stuff woman is there and they told me if it were all to for us we would have people in the streets or we would have the relation on the industry it in italy and i said my answer was where the our involvement so we have to shoot as your dog. doesn't make much of a difference right it's. all right well thank you very much for this interview and for an insight of whatever is going on in your beautiful country good luck with everything we were talking to look at that elite elise former interim prime minister and former head of the international monetary fund discussing fears of yet and now they're here is in crisis and italy's troubled relations with the e.u. that's it for this edition of stuff and call see you next time.

that's right the stand to hear from us and. move on what i saw. there are a lot of trophy there are rather you know profit off for america isn't that the. only stat and that competitive and that question then you can keep an eye on what i did through the channel for truffle is that it. you know that. the blood was

then on the shuttle side of. the female and lot of the. members of the hey how do you want to do it. and get its whole full place choice for the i knew you didn't pay i think time in theory has said. british. civil. from model farther than half the will fuck around mr hates it for jim and then i hope that our friends in the course. of. the swarm see the blue of them so moon. and good us who was before. much of those who heard it's a preview are you ever seen him we will. we will move. move . move.

move show didn't look beautiful liberal media good good. move slow most of these girls will be do films for good goof. go to shows some look but do you do some you belong here to show your story to me i should go. to starbucks to give it to me to fill it with the little blue mist they'd say look it is it's. from stashed in understand just means it's there mashed on. the street the president and the speech from the student. says we have producers to post this for to snoop to come up with you of course there's the girls who are too serious to produce to your machine station shouldn't . are you sure goodall for one was doing.

seemed wrong. when all just all. the world didn't get to say power does they become educated and in gains from an equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart when she says to look for common ground. for headlines this hour on our team donald trump confirms that sending troops to venezuela to support an opposition leader one white dog is alive option in time venezuela's president warns of bloody consequences chill is something that only

it's an option to stop the stop trying to hold it right then you are making the.