we're watching closely watching the hawks. hello and welcome to crossfire where all things considered i'm peter lavelle china has arrived in europe in a very big way and not everyone in the west welcomes this italy's support of china's felten road initiative is a game changer the washington consensus that has dominated the world for the past seven decades.

cross knocking china i'm joined by my guest patrick lawrence in new york he is a foreign affairs commentator whose columns appear in consortium news in other publications also in new york we have remy he is a senior director at america's market intelligence as well as a research associate on political cost the françois he is president of asia center i jump in crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate this but this program has been inspired by an article you wrote in the consortium news i saw the the white house's reaction to italy joining this initiative this chinese initiative belton road this is coming from the national the national security spokesman mark cases italy is a major goal of global economy and great investment destination no need for italian government to lend legitimacy to china's infrastructure vanity project well this is a lot more than of vanity project and it sounds more that they find it threatening

go ahead patrick. it's a very great deal more than a vanity project that's a ridiculous description and i think the larger point peter is is that washington's position to confer legitimacy in the sort of things it the whole statement reeks of washington's inability to to read the clock and see what time it is. the world's changing europeans i think to to my to my delight our last figuring this out. and addressing addressing a future where there are going to be. more independent coal power i couldn't be more pleased at that prospect one has waited for it for decades of course. ok let's go to it let me go to paris here is on francois how far as it being in europe and being a european do you see china as

a threat or is it an opportunity because you look at the scaremongering out of washington and other capitals in in europe i mean i'm thinking of president ma mccrum he one on one point admonishes been at the same trip the town chinese president was making to your piece signed in the a lot of agreements with the chinese president seems a bit hypocritical at the or at least very confusing go ahead in paris well no may i answer would be very him poor you know it would be too forward in tony's or you probably know is determined to define the crisis is a term which contains the word then ger and put unity so that the top that's my first point in my second point would be that china is as much as threat or and the poor to nitty as much europe is strong enough not to be threatened and strong enough or petunias sick enough. to grow up to portion

a-t. of course all. balancing the is the influence and turner is very good at it and find the witnesses turn up always pushes wherever you tweak wherever it's strong then you wouldn't find it well but could you say the same exact thing of the united states because it's the concern of course you could think of every country ok let me go to remy here remy i mean you know the italians are being lambasted as the first g. seven country to join this initiative here but i mean they've had over a decade of stagnation a country comes to you and says we want to invest in your infrastructure i mean who doesn't want new infrastructure but this is they're being told that they're going to be turned into

a vast saw well the european union is the vassal union but not to the chinese go ahead. well the situation is the following you have right now within the european union thirteen countries that actually have signed a memorandum of understanding with china for the belgian road initiative however in a case of italy has two very symbolic values the first thing is defined as the first g seven countries in terms of the colony power of italy's far greater than other smaller nations of the european union sign on the on the chinese deal and also more importantly it's a founding member of the european union the six country a founding member of the european union and therefore it's a big movement on the symbolism of this of this alliance now you have to keep in mind that indeed italy as an incoming situation that has been far from florida over the last decade has a very high level especially of of national debt and he's definitely looking for investors to be able to help them you know build infrastructure that has been lagging behind both at the national level but also at the levels and china is

actually the ideal partner for this remember that in general you had this bridge collapse with a very dead people because of the the lack of it is too easy of the infrastructure and the lack of new investment in china is an opportunity for italy today is different from the european perspective and from place on my core we actually want to have a united european union in front of china to make arrival ok patrick you want to jump in go ahead yes. i like you very much sure are you or your you should know. of the balance between threat an opportunity right speaking as an america from america we we are not very good at this rate we we do not we do not we do not have much capacity to identify opportunity instead we see threats everywhere to the extent on one grows sick and tired of the word right and this may sound a touch overstated where where you are sitting or worse off ross was sitting but i

worry that underneath all this is is a twenty it's first century version of of the yellow peril we saw about a century or a little more ago right into what congress is saying all these bills they're passing of concerning huawei and all that right that. it it's really not far below below the surface and i dearly hope the europeans can avoid falling into that pit. ok all gets go back to paris where i mean you know going back to this national security spokesman you know calling this project abandon the project here i don't see the united and you know it we also you know you have the that the port cities of germany were doing quite well right now and there's the port cities of italy want to compete what's wrong with that is the european union investing in italy you know it is drowning in debt ok but europe is actually brussels and rome are are at loggerheads here number chinese come in and they're not bringing their own

political system they're not bringing their values they're bringing my me what is wrong with that go ahead and paris for strict but you go to be aware that infrastructures are not necessarily to move through warring and of this verse and you can make on the investments by the united states or non european countries which are not china are much higher that one of her china has invested into iraq in the last seventy years remember that china only started investing into europe after twenty two in. twenty two in the ninety's were quite where we built the church did european crisis then the study of root why east china investing in into the interest voters one and i would see one before any other reason because with infrastructure of this you know what you're buying your brain

rather sets and very often do the other sets are yielding is three ball. that china has looked at now the second reason of course is that infrastructures are critical to be present in it that doesn't mean that because you cannot see american investors going into infrastructure each year of don't care about investing in europe but the log if. the inverse he listed company is as you know different the market he invested by quite a lot of us pensions vernon to own fault so i would say that is probably the higher degree of the you creation in terms of investment from the us than there is from from china would we still be in the learning curve in terms of investment this being said you can of course. the strategy they mention of the chinese investment

into infrastructure is ok well already has got an enemy got to really get around here i mean you know he you know when you look at you know the chinese investment it is it is deemed as some kind of threat and particular people in washington here but you know the i.m.f. and the world bank they're not charities they already always have conditions attached to it ok i mean i don't see any of those same kind of conditions here and plus in the case of italy they had these are just memorandums of understanding they are not done deals yet and of course is going to be wiggle room here go ahead investment infrastructure can be a walk i'm side future for the fall for italy that actually needs those there are some investment from from the european union also the structural adjustment program that actually reinvest in different countries italy's and that contributed to the european union because the needs of infrastructure is actually greater in eastern europe and that's where the funds are going more generally that than in italy however what you were quoting was was absolutely right in the says that the different perspective and offers from different global actors whether it is the

u.s. or china out towards europe have been very much evolving in the last five or six years china is offering an opportunity for joining vestment that has its risks also in case a country is not able to repay that investor and therefore you will actually potentially fall in on the in the shape of the chinese investment that should not be the case in case of italy however when you look at the tribe administration today doesn't have any answer to the increasing presence of chinese investment instead of offering a win win scenario get out of the. in the dust works on trade disputes and trade disagreement potentially raising tires on aluminum raising tariffs on all the other key imports for just challenging and idea of globalization by pushing for the gender of the character first remy to travel very hard hold on hold on don't hold your i.r.s. or brother good try to hold those sobs gentlemen we have to go to a hard break and after that break we'll continue our discussion on china's state with our.

join me every thursday on the alex i'm unsure when i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics or business i'm show business i'll see if. u.s. veterans who come back from war often tell the same stories. were going after the people who were killing civilians they were not interested in the wellbeing of their own soldiers either they're already several generations of them so i just got this memo from the search for answers officers were going to attack and destroy the government and seven countries in five years americans pay for the wars with their money others with their lives if we were willing to go into harm's way and willing to risk being killed for a war surely we can risk some discomfort or uneasiness

for. a very made up and army and if you don't buy into my ponzi scheme on going to shoot my god. even though the buy this game was well known to be a ponzi scheme yes you see it investigated bernie madoff at least twice before they found the boss of them and they it was a well known ponzi scheme invested by well known people massive bernie had an army now apply that to the u.s. dollars. the u.s. dollar is a ponzi scheme why do people want u.s. dollars because if they don't the u.s. military said and they're obliterated whether it's iraqi libya or some other place like this around and so that's what we're going to set the new york times right he said the u.s. dollar is worthless it's backed by. the british for a single purpose. of a super. training very young.

the months of intensive school. reps. and they save lives. i. welcome back across the uk where all things are considered i'm discussing china.

ok let's go back to remy in new york i think we should all speak the obvious what's going on here right now and we see a major transformation of the global economy and geopolitics and and china's got the deep pockets it has the technology it has the will and as i've pointed out. out i mean we'll find out i suppose but they're not bringing a lot of political baggage with them ok it's not promoting democracy at the end of the barrel of a gun i mean they're just saying there's an opportunity here we can win you could win and let's do it and it seems that they doing pretty well it's the united states that doesn't want to lose europe as a part of its orbit that's really obvious no one wants to say it in such clear language but that's the case go ahead remi. well if you're saying it is true indeed

but in another element it's important to look at when you look at normative values added to two investment or international relationships that's actually what was interesting to look at over the last few days of the story that you had in europe about china looking at it as a system it a rival and the idea here is that europe actually worried about the increasing and invest in european markets whether you're our european country or you're from outside if you actually compete on the same level of technical city and prices you actually are able to be awarded a contract is actually the case on the other side of the equation here where european companies that often you know taking out of the but then potentially of investment back in china and that's what you know in terms of the relationship between europe and china something that europe is demanding that changes however indeed china can actually be a very good partner a strong partner especially when the u.s. tends to fall down on its own that's a nationalistic values especially on issues such as climate change for example there's definitely more interest and collusion of interest here between the

european union and china trying to build a new potential world order on climate change and strategy so it's interesting that now we have the rise of a multiple of the system that is different from the one that we had a series of different decades when the u.s. basically dictated. western europe right now you have in when you look at security issues or also a colleague issues you have other options on the table for a country like italy you know patrick you know maybe you can elaborate on that because if the world is changing in ways that the united states can't control and that's something that's very very for us in each major change has to have the the blessing of the washington consensus in that just isn't the case anymore i mean it's really these policymakers are so out of step with what's going on i mean as a as the trump administration angles of to destroy the economy of venezuela you have you know china is the biggest. investor in africa the european union's biggest

trading partner is china china is staying away from those things i'm not trying to praise their economic model political model i'm just looking at what they do ok and and i'm it's just the us that is out of sync with that but it absentia major of a country come up so fast and challenge me we're going to be the established order that they think is set in stone go ahead patrick well peter a couple of points very interesting what you just said i think one. i can't get past the thought that there is a certain sense of shock him in washington and perhaps in some of the european capitals although i doubt it. that that this is a non western country. acting. it as on the basis of parity with the west ok if if all this money that china's is offering to an vessel another western country somehow there wouldn't be

this kerfuffle and then sort of freak out right second point peter. look at history for seventy all of years. america was the unchallenged dominant power. it did not have to say gary much it did not have to imagine alternative two perspectives it did not really need to diplomacy right it it was just in the driver seat suddenly the world has changed and. washington is rather school rhotic it's not accustomed just thinking it's not accustomed to new circumstances and accustomed to seeking other than we just proceed to do what we've always done since one nine hundred forty so it's kind of shaken awake rather abruptly and.

i think it's going to take quite a long time and a great number of mistakes some of the extremely unfortunate before washington is able to wake up and see the twenty first century food for what it is at the moment washington frankly speaking doesn't really much care for the twenty first century. point me as you pointed out earlier in the program me what you said it's thirty thirteen countries in the european union and already. been dealing with china in this respect here but it's really interesting the individual countries can do it it says a lot of this has a lot but i'm not a lot of good things about the european union because they really aren't knighted on this and it's really tells you the condition of the european union because it because of this neoliberal economic policies and so many countries particularly in the south that used to call them the pigs remember that about ten years ago there was so much into debt the european union it's where it's current model and with

using the euro lot of these countries just can't get out of that mess and you have an outside fresh source of investment that kind of move things along because if i were an italian i would welcome this because there's an it's a pretty bleak future with this current economic model based on a stereo unfortunately this is the third way out what do you think remmy. off think we can go too far ahead here i mean they basically have thirteen countries that signed a memorandum of understanding what does a memorandum of the standing mean not much to be really honest i mean there for the moment there's no clear investment happening there's no but there's just a sign of interest towards potentially working closer with with china and the does whole pot. there there's also a game here they being played by eastern european countries or even eataly specifically here two words brussels trying to say what charge if you actually don't cover for all in interest look around and try to you know move away from a consensus position that's exactly what you know french president. said by

inviting when the presenter trains president came to you to they went to monaco then he went to france during the same trip by coin vidame in the positively this and then he actually had him on the second day together with merkel and with the younger in terms of showing that there was a show of strength and unity inside the european union to try to have a more consensus here in front of china definitely to italy whether you're looking at the. five star movement or salvini is basically trying to play a game ahead of the european elections trying to showcase with ensure economic success while right now if you really look at the two million situation they haven't done any progress over the last year and unfortunately deniable to showcase any kind of success before the european elections so now if you actually look on the other side of the equation where i totally agree with you is defy that there's no clear answer from the united states they've seen china you know assigning agreements with eastern european countries before that there was a series of different central american countries that actually moved away from taiwan opened. the seas with china in what used to be the american bike yard of the

month of doctrine and it is actually not able to any articulate any potential progressive and ambitious position towards you know showcase another option for those countries is cutting down the series of help to central american countries is cutting down and just bullying european countries inside the nato to force them to pay two percent of their g.d.p. through nato for more that i think american military production and a refuses to have this rise of a multilateral multi as a multi-polar order in the in the world today that is a reality you have you hit on so many very important points i agree i mean it. patrick let me go back to you i mean it remy brings up some many good points here is that you have this rising power china i mean and in all of our lifetime i mean it's it's amazing since helping oil was around i mean it's extraordinary what's going on here and it seems to me that you know it's the city's trap i mean the

united states has to take a make a stand either allow china to continue its path and negotiate with it or and or the third always the worst option is war and it seems the first two options united states is not seriously thinking about this is the time to seriously think about those options before the third one is forced on you go ahead patrick if it's washington's think if you go back heater we were talking at the time if you go back to the ukraine crisis perhaps before that syria. washington now northeast asia washington's basic position is we don't have a constructive response to the the evolving world order so our our effort goes into spoilage our role as spoiler in one after another case and i think if you look at the washington position civically the way situation we

are essentially playing the role of spoiler we don't know how to respond any more constructively than that we do not have a working policy framework others and spoilage. this this goes across the pacific and now we're seeing it in europe. or in the you hang it where you are nani your head go ahead remy in new york go ahead. well i agree that you really see a shift here and which is basically on the third equal level call democratic dearie the idea that by promoting free trade you can to help you know population grew in terms of the economy push towards democracy and not go to war and basically that was the basic idea behind the european union the rise of the faculty the rise of free trade and therefore have moving away from nationalism and to listen and that was best embodied by the clinton administration and the obama administration that was pushing for more free trade agreements that you can actually create those in terms of the impact that he has on the quality but definitely the idea was to try

to have a wall where you have absolute gain for everyone to work together and trade together with pushing out of the you know the trade agreements where there was a trans i think the trade agreements other than that in asia and actually what happened that was different off the table the second option was more chinese option that was look we just want to deal with the other pragmatic level we're not going to be pushing for more democracy in your country we just want to have you know money and agreements right now with the table they had a chance to do it they want to win win situation that's interesting we should pursue it that's all the time we have gentlemen many thanks to my guests a new york and in pairs and thanks to our viewers for watching us here in our d.c. you next time and remember crosstalk rules.

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