reconciliation put on hold as shots ring out around the beleaguered nation's capital with the un powerless to stop the fighting and its peacemaking process halted by the violence is there still hope for a peaceful unification of libya's warring factions libya headed into years and years of destructive fighting the offensive on the capital swiftly put an end to the country's. well sonera fellow foreign policy. john hopkins university welcome to the show it's great to have you with us. so. while hostile apparently expected a quick and decisive victory in tripoli it looks like the offensive is getting bogged down in the suburbs after militias from misrata showing jna forces after hours apparently keen on keep fighting but can he really win now that the momentum is gone. i don't see him winning to be honest i think he underestimated the

kind of resistance he's going to face. and the resistance is not just from misrata i mean he pretty much is a rallying cry across the entire western part of libya from xin and from misrata from other towns all over the place groups within tripoli itself in addition to the military that is under the authority of the legitimate government of tripoli they're all. resisting i've got to show he did not really realize that he's going to be ironically the one who is going to unite all of these disparate groups in many ways some of them where enemies of each other to defend to defend the west against him so i don't see him being able to do anything for them that he's also his forces are retreating in many parts of the western part of libya i think less

he resorts to what he did for example two days ago and that is indiscriminate bombings i was going to say have to ask our base as far off to the east and some analysts are actually saying that his offensive is based on some very shaky logistics how long can he keep fighting and how much pressure can he ultimately exert on tripoli. i don't think he can keep fighting that long he's already sending out all kinds of signals saying he will stop. the fighting he just is holding on. to condition that he's not it doesn't want to retreat and there's also the possibility that some elements that he had defeated in the eastern part of libya will also rise against him again. for example or parts of benghazi. i you know i think you have to need to order the military under have been in stories think about their

leadership and maybe sideline have to himself. who or through an agreement and form a whole new military command that can again join any negotiations for the future so about the government. the government in tripoli has pledged to destroy half share but does it really have enough resources to sail this promise. no i mean everybody's using her hyperbole i'm not sure they can enlist they're going to rely on all of these different groups that are under their umbrella and all sort of grouping from the eastern part of libya i mean let's. remember that half that himself is his own so-called army is made of essentially of of militias i mean that he has extremists militia militias. islamised.

he has some mercenaries from chad from from sudan yes some tribal militias under his command so there is also the possibility that some of these groups will switch loyalties. if that happens or if the eastern or if the government receives western support then yes they could defeat him asleep because at the end of the day they are the recognized government. now let's say even if the battle for tripoli tracks on and on how star is still pretty much in control of east of benghazi and oil sales that sat i heard that last time to try to sell himself it didn't really work out and he had to rely on the triple a base national company so can the oil factor played sells out in the current standoff it can it i mean like some of the militias in the past controlled those oil fields.

over a couple of years before have. sort of put his hands on them and then he wanted to use the oil for for his own eastern government however the international community to fuse to allow him to do that and they forced him to hand over the oil fields recognize government in tripoli so there is also the possibility that some of these militias that used to be in control. all or some of these oil fields where they're in the south of libya or. closer to the eastern part to mean they're not exactly one hundred percent in the east they're a little bit between tripoli and benghazi i think they can they can for example take it over again if some militias from misrata who are extremely well armed i mean militias. as well armed as probably half goes militias if they decide to go in the direction of the east instead of joining the fight in tripoli

they could do some serious damage not only indo in fields but on have those forces in the east. so just in late favor originates prime minister siraj has met with marshal hafter and they both seem to agree on the need for elections now we have war is martial after no longer in need of elections or is attack in tripoli just his way to make sure they produce a result that is good for him. well. i think he miscalculated a great deal i meant think he's going to pay a very heavy price politically and also militarily for his miscalculations you are right they have agreed on the need for elections the united nation and boy. was planning a peace conference in libya to bring all parties together that was supposed to start later only a few days ago on the fourteenth of april after seem to have agreed to that so was

the tripoli government other parties in the libya conflict all agreed to join this conference and then have. you know surprised everybody including some of his on lies outside libya with his move militarily i think he taught at one point that he can take tripoli very quickly and therefore can demand or can dictate the future of the country would that didn't work out and now i think he's playing for the idea that he can exert pressure on tripoli without invading gate by asking that he's going to willing to he's going to lay down the arms and stop fighting but he wanted to stay just on the outskirts of tripoli in a couple of areas that he holds as sort of a reminder of his over his power i don't think that your party government is going to agree to that they already said that at least publicly remains to be seen on the

ground so i think have to miscalculated a lot. by becoming officially in the eyes of everybody as the spoiler of a political process he's the one who had nicked and therefore there is now an argument that can be made that have got should be under international sanctions like others who have tried to preempt a political process in libya. there is a lot of calls inside of libya. from all parties to be honest to say that have there is no longer a viable partner for peace and less he is removed they will not continue to negotiate with the eastern government. so everything seems to be riding now on the character of half to himself he is a very polarizing figure and i think we are going to wait and see whether he will be sidelined and for the country to move forward with some kind of

a unification between east and west so that we have the isis situation right and isis took a blow in libya one at a loss as far as i know it's still active in a southeast shot showdown between hostile and jna open the door for its still is ation. absolutely there's no question first of all it was the libyan tripoli based government that actually defeated tuff defeated the isis in syria it was not tough and they did so with the support of the united states it was publicly acknowledged support logistics and they sort of liberated certain that area from the isis so from mike least an american point of view the guys in tripoli or the government and its forces in tripoli cannot be considered terrorists as half there would like to say because they for terrorism and proved their worth

now did this chaos is happening some elements of isis have been seen over the last week or so in libya in public in some areas and it's obvious some of them act act tough there are forces in some areas like. an area in. libya where he held the upper hand so a lot of these elements as we all know it thrive on chaos and what have to did last week sort of the level of chaos across libya even if he wins tripoli that chaos will continue because there will be pockets of very very intensity existence to him across the country and i thought i'm afraid like everybody else that this chaos prolongs for a while is going to attract more extremists from around africa and the region

including isis and al qaeda elements. who are going on and thrive as they always do in an area of complete chaos. or at least and take a shower break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to half it out while sonera fallow at the foreign policy institute at johns hopkins university discussing the current turmoil and leave the esdaile with us. after the previous stage of my career was over everyone wondered what i was going to do next the hope of all different clubs on one hand it is logical to sort of go from fields where everything is familiar on the other i want to the new challenge

and the fresh perspective i'm used to surprising people of us all we're not stupid . i'm going to talk about football not the or else you can think i was going to do. by the way what is it that slide in here. when i say assets on their books terry they're referring to the bonds of a price of one hundred cents on the dollar but don't have a sale value in the market greater than maybe one penny on the dollar so again this departure dorian gray economy all these quote assets on the central bank balance sheets if you add it all up i think the central banks and have something like fifty to fifty five trillion dollars of what they call assets that might be worth of mcdonald's hamburger when he ends up they have no collateral value was what they're worthless that's

a fact. business job where her cocaine is were for books with the under fifty to everybody use cocaine. cocaine you can smoke it this is worse. fifty thirty. twenty. this is about a fifteen people smoke this one. this way you can find these drugs in any city in the united states that you want i. want to get it about to. make money. and that's one of.

our bad points has settled well sonera fellow at the foreign policy john hopkins university discussing of the ongoing fighting in libya so the journey a hassle incorporated farias militias part of it security force and then and there there have been reports that they don't just fight house terror but they're also fighting each other every now and then so even if they're in a manages to throw back after sources can still rely on those militias loyal to now that's a very important question. and nobody knows. where we're from either side wins this conflict where there are those militias that fall all over. the government in this case. what they're all going to play in the future i

think there is a very strong possibilities for the tripoli government that it can control beast militias after this episode because they have to some extent with very active support of the united nation have succeeded over the last year. to control a lot. these militias and incorporate them as regular army officers. we haven't seen a lot of fighting in tripoli as it was before there were some incidents but nothing really spectacular they you and boy was able to get an agreement with all of these militias last year he had also it threatened and named some of those who violated. the agreement so they they were a bit to last week more or less under the control of the government. now what happened last week through everything been the air i mean across the board. and

east militias now are acting guests in defense of the tripoli government but at the same time they went back to their old habits of basically just following their own commanders on the field and it so happened that they are all converging on one goal and that is to defeat have to but after that is done. the question is very much open so let's talk about who supports who it's no secret egypt saudi arabia united arab emirates even france have been providing have tears army with political and military support and they is recognized internationally but doesn't really command the same level of support why not. well actually the g.n.a.t. does its supporters open them in italy germany england day and it states much of the africa region much of the arab world with the exception of de u.a.e.

and saudi arabia as you mention. and egypt egypt is not really one hundred percent behind have to egypt is very much interested in just simply securing its borders with libya and so they happen to be under have to. dorothy that's why they are dealing with have to butt in on a very limited level not like for example the united arab emirates which is essentially given him. a blank check across the board and all kinds of military equipment which are now by the way under investigation by the united nations. but there is also political support for have to live like you mentioned france is a primary one and france has also been with some kind of logistics and intelligence support would special forces at some point but there is also for example russia russia is also a supporter at least perceived publicly as a supporter of have it wasn't so strongly seen that way until last week when when

it stopped they knighted nation from issuing a condemnation of have done and now and there is. a little bit more stronger feeling that moscow is supporting crafter which is you know a very. i don't know how to describe it but but i don't see it as in the ultimate benefit. of russia and i think russians are too smart. to throw their lot behind have to. so un secretary general antonio would test has tried to personally have tried to call up his offensive yet there we see the sense of this happening can you really trust the un with a mission of solving the living crisis if it seems that nobody really is listening to them. i mean and the power of the un rests with essentially with the with the

five permanent members of the security council so unless you get all five to agree on something you're not going to get much from from the united nations i mean that's the case in every part of the world the u.n. alone as a bureaucratic organization is not going to solve anybody's problem unless countries like russia and the united states agree on something and then they can force it which is what happened for example in two thousand and eleven deaf you would not have been brought down if there wasn't a consensus at the security council to allow a military intervention the same thing here and the same thing in every parts of the world and then we have u.s. secretary of state my own pal and he called on hastert to stop his offensive but at the same time as to fighting in testified the u.s. was true some of its forces and india evacuated some of his fist keepers as well i mean why would to the calls peace if no forces are there to make him.

the only forces are that now are proving that they they are there to force him down the tripoli you know forces over the last few days at least they seem to be winning and rolling him back. with fierce resistance i would not be surprised however so if it that the tripoli government is a receiving a lot of support from countries like italy for example and the united states but it is probably not public i think after a calm which had a very strong relationship with the tripoli government is probably providing some kind of logistical and intelligence support so is italy i mean the defense minister of italy declared that. it will support the tripoli government militarily how far is that going to happen i don't know. libya's foreign minister has been also

calling on the international community to exact pressure on house. what does that mean i mean should there be another foreign intervention what do you think and i don't think so i mean the world is not ready for another intervention i think everybody. pretty much regrets what happened in two thousand and eleven to some level i think even those who don't admit it even in there and states there's a great deal of regret. about what happened in two thousand and eleven and they feel that they were dragged president obama said into this blindly by some european and some arab allies and so there is a lot of skepticism here i don't think they're going to take anybody's word for it anymore i don't think they're willing to commit american troops in a civil war like libya and specially with the trump administrator in which there's not. a feeling that needs to be on the international scene that strongly i think

what you're seeing is a lot of commitment to support the government of tripoli politically and diplomatically that can go as high as far as for example. as a war criminal for example the prime minister of libya which whether you like him or not is essentially the official recognized by the world has submitted a formal request to the international court of justice and of course to indictment of have to as a war criminal i'm providing some evidence of how it goes bombing of civilian areas and so on so i think that's what you're going to see more than any military intervention any military intervention will probably be just simply logistical and intelligence but not not any active. and also like i just wonder if there's any leadership at all that the libyans will be more or less happy with because you know not all libyans would see. her as

a legitimate leader because of his past or ties with foreign powers that's fair enough but then prime minister also raj has his critics as well who say virtually the same that he was installed by foreign powers so what do you think is there anyone that libyans actually would be happy with. there are some strong indication but they have not really came out to the scene as they should to be honest because this is their probably best chance to unify the country i'm speaking specifically of somebody like save get a deaf ear for example i think he can be a very strong contender and a unifier i think he can attract a lot of the tribal leaders who. were dalai and so his father in the past i think from both sides i mean you know i. say for example a mother comes from a very strong tribe in the east one of the strongest supporters of half that in

fact. his dad comes from the good that for a tribe which which is in syria and in the south of libya so i think on a tribal level safe is probably safe bet also internationally i think a lot of actors internationally including the five. permanent members of the security council had dealt with safe to some extent at one level in the past and they have liked him and i think he has some good reputation and credibility internationally he also has very strong ties in europe however the trouble is save has not come out publicly himself to say he's interested already did not put forward any proposals for the future order given his supporters an opportunity to support him i think if he for example comes out on with a video in the next day or so and lays out

a vision for unifying the country and moving beyond what happened in two thousand and eleven and you know sort of comes across as a man of peace and was willingness to forgive the past and rise above it. and move forward i thought. you will see an incredible amount of support for a very interesting well it was great talking to you thank you very much for this insightful and they were talking to ha said. what they foreign policy institute at john hopkins university discussing the crisis in libya and the future of the war torn country that's it for this edition of the enco all see you next.

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russia calls on the u.s. to disavow its allegations of election meddling in the wake of the report the embassy in washington releases a one hundred twenty one page document bunking claims of interference. with price keep up the pressure on the president after. years of media speculation. collusion. no collusion no obstruction. of justice. multiple attempts by the present to mislead the country. back to government in libya accuses france of supporting rebel forces in a conflict that has killed hundreds in the past few weeks. aside from a nightmare or go.