yes i. want to somewhere possible that a member of the other people. of course is prime minister office then pays a vote on a 2nd breakfast referendum val's changes to her withdrawal deal to try a full of attempt to get through parliament. to the caribbean nation of haiti where the government is being accused of links to a massacre in the camp as a last november. and switch to get rich the u.s. tries to tempt countries with cash if they buy its way into a set of hardware from rivals like china or russia. to pay a visit to monty dot com for more on those on the story coming up next cross talk examines what's next in the trade battle between the u.s. and china.

hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle our chime in the u.s. in trying an end game the battle lines have been drawn and demands made in this trade war it appears both sides are preparing for the long haul what does it mean to win a trade war what does it mean to lose and how far could this escalate. cross-talk in the trade war i'm joined by my guest fred tang in new york he is president of the american china public affairs institute and hope you've been sitting. james

bradley he is a new york times number one best selling author of among others flags of our fathers and the china mirage rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it when we go to fred 1st in new york well it's been months and months now we've been talking about a trade war i don't know if that's the appropriate term i'm more concerned with something much more broader than that is a cold war. that pits the united states against china and when i mean cold war i mean all encompassing trade geopolitical and actually the balkanization into a bipolar world that that would be a cold war very different than the one we had after the 2nd world war so the question is is there a new a new cold war just with a new player this time china go ahead fred well i think you're right you ready know where that this is a trade war and shots already been fired and right now the negotiations are really

a cease fire that they're avoiding this happening as far as a cold goes i think yes in some way because this is such a misfit i do think that this time curtain is on the u.s. on the china side because china is working with many of the part of this all over the world and united states is closing its doors on many of the countries it james says to be the same question because fred brings up a very interesting point here because if it were going to get into this binary world here there's a lot of countries in the middle and a lot of these countries though they might be our allies of the united states they do far far more business with china this is creating this is creating a huge dilemma for many parts of the world go ahead james. it's a huge mess i think it's war the intelligence assessment 200-1000 said china is a big threat and the united states government has to do everything any day every

day to push back on that threat and i think we're in a war a trade war this is not about soybeans this is a ball paul who is in the economy of china. cyber war a technological war against while way this is not about one company wallowing this is about crippling their technological advances in 1959 with split make the united states decided to compete now with china we're trying to cripple. ok well fred for react to that i mean. it depending on who you want to ask me china's economy is slightly smaller than the united states equal to the united states are larger than the united states i mean trying to cripple one of the biggest economies in the world with an upward trajectory is a tall order i think you need more than just tariffs if you want to cripple economy

i think you know what i'm getting at go ahead fred. i think james have the right in terms of some of the i think will be president trump and you know his close associates trying to start this confrontation with another country which is china however you know all of the things between united's and china affects the whole world in terms of trade as well so you know they can try. even while we goes bankrupt it will leave $100.00 over 180000 very capable employees and they will start up tents of companies like the hallway and will be competing again so i think you know we have to realize that this one is a very very complicated war it's not a very simple one just situation ok james i mean looking at western press reports see china walked away from the deal but if you look at the details of the

deal that was being proposed by the trumpet ministration they were essentially saying china you have to change your form of governance you have to change the role of the of the communist party in china i mean the hubris of that the arrogance of that saying well you have to play by our rules and our rules only and you actually have to change the way your country is governed i mean who in the chinese government would accept that i mean that that just on the face of it it's ridiculous to ask. that's true but it's that's look at the mainstream media. that's what they're saying. we want the system to change this is not regime change this is a system change. the words you hear from the commentators is china must change their behavior this is a not about soybeans as i said this is about. to change the inner workings of the

chinese not only system or regime but actually culture it's an unbelievable thing a. cornell university economics professor looked at the list of demands that the united states made to china riginal and he said this does not look like negotiation yeah it looks like the request for a surrender exactly you know fred reform reflects upon that because if the it the united states its preponderance its economic preponderance with every passing year diminishes as other countries rise up that's a perfectly natural thing to happen here but why should one country determine that determine the the terms and conditions of trade for example i mean trade is by its very nature of an exchange right i mean it has to be an exchange also on ideas on how to run the international system because that's essentially what's happening in the united states does not want to come if there's a reckoning coming there's a country called china that is on the way up with its economic reach around the

world and and it and that's how it's going to make its presence known in the world as a trading country not it's a military country like the united states does go ahead for it. well i do think that the u.s. negotiation team have gotten kerry away into so they think that they can't make a law that the manse because china frankly has a lot of the things that they have to to kill of domestically so you know tree having a trail of united states is the last thing that they want to have so they were giving into the ments whatever united states wants i think it started with 70000000000 and now goes way over a trillion but the u.s. team thought they really have their way so that if they tried to. surrender terms which that was the really the deal killer because they were trying to send inspectors into china into provincial levels on inspecting china and monitoring china's a 3rd of

a tease. something like this it's just really no country would accept such such as such terms james i mean again i used the word hubris here i mean but i suppose it wouldn't be chinese and. investigating american companies in economic behavior it's only a one way thing right right i mean you know when you look at trade war it's about money and if you look at the biggest pot of money in the war our own it's the military complex in the united states yesterday trump in an interview said there is a military industrial complex and they like war and gravy train traditionally historically for this military industrial complex have been scary russia and china you know the vietnam war was not about vietnam it was about the domino theory the chinese were going to come down and eat up vietnam and then malaysia and indonesia and the world was going to go to hell now they army needs

a bad russia and we're surrounding russia with army units and the united states navy needs china as the booking. man and so you've got you've got china being made out to be a bogeyman here and the propaganda i mean do you know there is a committee on the present danger in the united b states committee on the present danger china and newt gingrich and steve bannon and i'll bask in these guys are talking to the committee and getting applause and then they're rolled out and see n.b.c. washington post new york times a couple weeks later it's incredible again and. cheating and stealing that china has supposedly done well it's incredible propaganda yeah but you know the thing is that china is never stolen at one job from the united states it was american companies that did that ok not china fred you know the belgian road

initiative i think that's really at the core of what the united states really worries about because it doesn't want to participate in it it is been very forceful to have some of its allies not participate but they are it's goes all the way into europe right now this is see this is china creating an alternative to the west i mean i've been talking about this on this program for a long time i mean if the united states is it want to cooperate then china has resources and the ability in the imagination to go elsewhere of course a trade war with the united states would not be something i would welcome but i've come to believe i would be able to manage it fred. yes the bella row initiative actually started off because china have a lot of surplus and they don't want to be dumping on any of the countries so they thought hey let's help our neighboring countries solve and when they started this initiative it was just basically that but then they receive such enthusiasm from so many countries all the way to europe so this becomes

a very very big project and every 2 years about 37 leaders of the country go to china meet and talk and tell him go in the self as many local components with different countries and different agreements and so forth but i think in the long run it will really help the whole world especially the countries never benefited economically for centuries ok james same question to you about 40 seconds before we go to the break own head. yeah. belton road is wonderful countries they just had a huge meeting in beijing so much enthusiasm but look at the united states response they don't go to the meetings they're trying to throw sand in the gears iran syria russia are critical to the belt of the road the united states. attacking you know every everywhere they can any try to intervene here and it progresses right as well exactly and in then that's one of the reasons why iran is in the crosshairs right

now because a rand china need to have a stable a ran for the initiative to work right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here where we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the trade war state with our to. facebook and google started with a great idea and great ideals unfortunately it was also a very dark side. they are constructing a profile of you and that profile is real it's detailed and it never goes away turns out that google is manipulating your opinions from the very 1st character that you type into the search bar it will always favor one dog food over another one comparative shopping service over another and one candidate over another they

can suppress certain types of results priced on what they think you should be see if they have this kind of power then democracy is an illusion the free and fair election doesn't exist the more growth we give them the sooner we're all. over the years i've talked to you about the insect control as a show of the economy morally and. lives are becoming like the colony of insects bees or dance and that's all enabled by this 5 year old surveillance pretty cool right. now and so seems wrong. just don't call. me. yet to see how to stay active. and engaged with equals betrayal.

when something you find themselves worlds apart we just of the common ground. welcome back to cross talk we're all things considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the trade war. ok let's go back to fred in new york there's a term being bandied about a lot now and we're going to hear it i think for a long time in that state the city's trap is in a political in this situation right now because the united states has options and tell our audience what that is. it comes back from ancient greece but you know it's a rising power challenging a hedge of manpower and there is that there are some choices that hedge amman can

allow it to happen in the case of allowing china to down its path that a way it's going you can negotiate with it which she died states as shown with its last set of demands it doesn't want to and then there's the 3rd choice and that's a military conflict where are we fred when it comes to the trap. well i think the 1st of this trap certainly between unite us and china it could apply to these 2 countries and since is a term of us i want to talk about another way it's a marathon and united states clearly is the front runner so the united states if it's the fun run the should keep on keep on running not try to turn look at the 2nd person behind you and try to kick that person down because as soon as you do that the 3rd the 4th the 5th or 6th the 7th run that will be surpassing you so that is what the united states is trying to doing is very very shortsighted at this point it would be hurting united states in the long run as far as military conflict goes

i do think that the u.s. generals the military those who have been through the war against the war unfortunately we have a few of the people who never been to a war and they've become very hawkish and itching for war and we just have to see hope that the reasonable mind from the military. rank and file would try to persuade the president and the administration not to do something like that yeah but james in this in ok so we have the trap we have marathon excellent there but it will throw in a more common game it's called playing chicken here and it's a game of bluff here do you think that they have seriously we have different levels of games here but playing a game of chicken is extremely dangerous and it seems to me that the chinese are not going to. be bluffed by donald trump or any american president i mean if you look at 5000 history years of chinese history they don't take well to outsiders

telling them what telling them what to do or occupying them or telling them how to run their affairs it's very very clear somebody there's got to be an adult in the room in the oval office once a mile to explain these very basic facts go ahead james. yeah i don't know the adults i mean when secretary of defense patrick shanahan the current secretary of defense took over at his welcoming ceremony he said and i quote while we are focused upon ongoing operations remember this is china china china and so that gives you an idea of the focus of the biggest pot of money in the world we need china as an enemy and i think we're in a hot war right now i mean. look at the trade war the 2nd word there is war look at the demands you know you surrender you surrender your sovereignity you surrender your ability to do in your own industries we're trying to cripple

and and other innovators in the chinese economy there is a there is a society labor war we're confronting in the south china sea so everything short of bombing and soldiers we are now terrain ok frank is it possible to separate geopolitics from trade i mean basically saying that there's puts a certain parameters on a conflict that there are. increasing in intensity because once the 1st missile fires it's always a law of unintended consequences all the plans you make for a conflict usually disco are blown out seconds after you start because you never know what the reaction is going to be can it can we get to a point where we say we're going to be we're going to be intense competitors we're going to be you know him a mercenary when it comes to trade but we're going to we're going to have a hotline make sure we can talk or is it just was james was saying right there you

know it's an enemy that the u.s. needs the military industrial complex is more than happy to take on a new enemy for its budgets and given the propaganda and then also want to throw in here to think it's really important is that there's an element of racism in. this is a civilizational is that you know this is a rise of a different kind of people here and i mean american and and in american history we did have you know yellow peril and whatnot and i see pinches of that coming into the media right here is that somehow the chinese are well they're just so different from us and that means you can't trust them and you try to you you have doubts about their humanity and everything else i mean it's very very ugly ok china is a achieve some amazing success successes recently and the american public is not giving them the credit go ahead for it. either you just made a lot of the assertions but the let me just try to some of the i think the 1st of

all china will not change a system because its system is working yeah they do borrow from the west the ideas and forms as structures when they need to so china say why should they change a system when it's proving to the world that they could live in a of a 600000000 people out of the property within decades no countries have ever done debt so if they have a system that's working why should they give up this system into us of all of the. pressure that's put off huawei specifically let's talk about that you know if enjoy system is not allowed to be on while we foam while this puts a pressure on huawei you know there's a lot of consequences because once while we're at the can not use that into a system they go to develop their own city and i've absent from that point on exactly what is for it keep going to read the i keep on and then and then china. ok and they're trying this china all of the other laptops they might not use microsoft

anymore licensing is a very lucrative business for the united states because they practically have to do nothing and collect money and when you take the licensing away u.s. licensing away on the global market and you try to compete with china no other this i think it's very very short short sided in terms of really going to be hurting a lot of u.s. companies and by bending all this you know they talk about china stealing why would china want to buy a loan buying $44000000000.00 worth of chips to install in their phone if they're still doing all they need is buy one chip right now and you copied a no they're buying $44000000000.00 worth of chips from c.t. to put in the fall because they want to abide by the rules and regulations and not to you know to explore into other people's property rights exactly bigots go back to james here you know it's very interesting is that if you look at the lecturing

that china's been subject to over the years let's go back to 2008 in 2009 i have a hard time believing that chinese the chinese leadership in the chinese business world would really listen to people on wall street that blew up the world in 2008 and it still and the repercussions of that stay with us here why would why in the world are the chinese listen to those guys ok the you know you could certainly criticisms of the chinese model but the criticism of wall street is that they have financial allies the entire economy i mean you can make a lot of money without making anything anymore i mean that's not a real economy that's a goldilocks economy and 11 country makes things build things and another one just does it through derivatives go ahead james. you know that's really true and as i said the newscasters are saying that china's got to change their behaviors and i

was thinking of some behaviors i was in shanghai when the 1st bombs dropped in george w. bush's war in iraq and i looked out my window in shanghai and there were building cranes they were investing money in their people in their city and while we were starting to send 7 trillion dollars overseas i think we should look at some behaviors here i mean the americans are spending the chinese are saving we have to borrow from the chinese. look at apple in a while way last year apple spent $80000000000.00 on buybacks that's not investing or narvi that's not helping with technological movement while the way a private company is and the reason that they're leading that in 5 g. is because they are investing while we were spending so this behavioral thing i think america just has to have a different view there's 300000000 americans there's 1300000000 chinese 4 times

more chinese why can't the chinese economy before times larger than the american economy why can america be a successful number 2 we don't have to go to war the american economy can grow but the idea that china is not going to be this fantastic power in the future. that america is imagining things the wrong way you know friend is error conditions a scenario for a win win maybe we're role of blowing this all out of proportion here i mean it is there a point where both sides will say look we we know what the future is and it's not good i mean for both it's not good initially i mean depending on their strategies to deal with it i mean i think the united states more and more isolating itself china has a lot of partners in the world a lot ok there's a lot of people. money because of the chinese economy they're not going to turn their back on that they're i mean again will that be an adult in the room because

if it has to be a 00 sum game i don't see the us coming out i mean it might win but it's going to be very very painful in the in probably destroy the agricultural sector in the process i'm going to go to fred 40 seconds before we finish up go ahead fred well i think it would take responsible and capable leaders on both parts of countries in order to reach something really meaningful i think that presently you know president finishes term he might you have a 2nd term 5 years is a very short history in china that ok i give a guess the last word james about 20 seconds go ahead james. that's true china's got a long term plan plans you know 2049 under the anniversary of the chinese revolution and they and they've got their eye on the prize ok now you know the chinese do have a very long. look at the history in

a very long way and they look in the future in a long way as well like 2025 in that program there that's all the time we have gentlemen many thanks so my guess in new york and in man city and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember. this in petersburg international economic forum is a unique event in today's business world. over the last 21 years the forum has become a leading global platform for discussing the key economic issues facing russia emerging markets and the world thousands of business community members attend a forum to address today's financial issues. watch a special forum coverage on r.t.

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