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stay with us now for sophie and co discussing the standoff between the u.s. and iran. i want them to sophie in the poem soviet shevardnadze the united states has ordered a military build up in the middle east siding their rising threat from iran. this nation's on a bring all out conflict i ask most and malani of the executive director of the center for strategic and diplomatic status at the university of south florida. with a new round of sanctions on iran by the united states the prospect of a working diplomatic solution to the question of iran's nukes is fading with american troops massing in the region. sanctions between tehran and washington are

becoming more dangerous for everyone will try to push the president into an even tougher stance on iran what exactly is the u.s. hoping to achieve with this month's hostility towards the islamic republic and can the renewed american pressure really make. most an milani of the executive director of the center for strategic and diplomatic studies at the university of south florida while come to the show it is rate great to have you with us mr maloney now you have been saying that chances of an all out war between united states and iran are very slim now as no side is really interested in an open conflict but recently pentagon has said and the u.s. u.s.s. aberdeen lincoln aircraft carrier and b. $52.00 strategic bombers to the persian gulf to prevent iranian miscalculation as u.s. defense secretary has put it so what possible miscalculation can there be on the part of iran what is there to prevent. thank you for having me on your

program as i have said before i think the chances of a military confrontation or. a pledge war between the united states and iran are very slim at this time because of the statesman being made by the iran's supreme leader ayatollah khomeini as well as by to president of the united states donald trump recently donald trump has said very clearly very explicitly that he's not interested in getting in gauge in another and lists war in the middle east. that danger however is a miscalculation by either iran or do u.s. war or an event instigated by some regional players in that iran has to respond and then the u.s. has to respond to your response and then this can get out of control and denby might have a limited military confrontation this is why it is very important for iran and the

united states to open channels of communication between their top leadership or at least between the military leaderships of the 2 countries so that be can prevent a miscalculation or a military limited military confrontation between the 2 countries because if there is a military confrontation even if it is a limited on it is not going to be and it is not going to serve the interests of the united states interests of iran ward interests of the regional players because a war with iran is not going to be limited to war with iran it's going to become a regional conflict it has. one of the rounds top military officials has already said that even will send american warships to the bottom of the sea with some secret weapons is iran exaggerating its military capabilities or do they really

have some super weapon nobody has heard about. i do not though if you don't has a secret nuclear weapon i doubt it very much i will take more as the propaganda or the psychological warfare on the part of the wrong done a serious threat in case there is a military confrontation between iran than the united states you do not have to be a genius to figure out the outcome of the united states will prevail so us defense secretary patrick shanahan is saying that sending warships to the gulf is aimed at tearing not provoking iran my pump is also saying that this is done against the possibility of iranian attack on americans or american interests so if iran is really planning to do anything against americans will list latest development really deter tehran from action. excellent question if you look at the iranian foreign policy in the east. 20 years 18 or 20 years you can see that they have

developed what they think is a deterrence capability day have networks of militia organizations their own militia organizations that have been trained and supported by iran and defame king is that in case there is a retaliation about there is a retaliation against iran by the united states iran can be tallied not from its own soil but from the soil of other countries this was the law into our logic behind creating because one law in 1982 in living on the logic was that if you're going to train an army has one law you're going to give it striking capability in case it's iranian facilities we might have the capability to strike against this story that is the logic behind what they're trying to do and the united states is sending a very clear message that they are aware of this and there are going to retaliate

for swirly and hopefully as a result of what has happened in the past 2 weeks the wiser heads are prevailing in tehran and washington and there seems to be some the escalation of tensions between the 2 countries if the united states ready to use the troops aid has needed it on or are they there just to provide psychological pressure on tehran. my take and based on what i have seen so far and decision ration in the middle east right now is very fluid extremely fluid so i might have to change money views 5 days from now but based on everything i have seen so far this is more of a psychological war for intense psychological warfare is going on between the 2 countries there is no question about this but at the same time the us is not taking lightly the possibility of some sort of

a confrontation be the iran if you look at the operations of the iranian to past 40 years they have made a huge important strategic decision never to come from the us directly and during the. occupation of iraq by the us iran provided supports to use militias but iranian forces to my knowledge never confronted the us directly and in a very unlikely that iranian forces are going to come from do us very directly at this time so and we can go present trump has literally threatened to end it on and now he sounds like a more conciliatory. well at least more than he didn't say if he doesn't want war with iran what's behind the american presence changing rectory i mean should we take this aggressive stance seriously. i think we have to take every war that the president says seriously however what he's doing about the iran is precisely what

he has done by north korea. you respond to your enemies or to your rivals decisively forcefully but then you also leave a window of opportunity for do you other side to begin negotiations the president believes president bush from his maximum pressure strategy against iran imposing crippling sanctions. ins has a profound beyond their mind iranian economy and sooner or later iran is going to come to the negotiating table and therefore he. makes a statesman such as the one that you refer to. also send a tweet and then a few days later he comes out with this statement about his lack of desire and interest in a regime change you need iran and more than that i do not think that has ever been

an american president who has so explicitly stated that he's not after we change and you don't not only after we change and you don't he went one step further and he said something extreme being porton that i hope to hear on takes seriously and that is under the present leadership he said iran can become a major economic and political force in the reach. so the u.s. official line is that they sole purpose of american sanctions on iran is to bring tehran to the negotiating table and produce a much better and fairer nuclear deal however i've heard opinions that washington is in fact aiming to push it on an economy into dire straits and provoke a revolution is that the real goal of american sanctions. i think it is very difficult to talk about what the real goals of the us administration is the do know that there is a major split ideological split between the president's national security

adviser mr john bolton and perhaps to a lesser degree secretary of state pump ale and the president the president is not interested in a regime change or in a war with iran as he has shown me to case with north korea however mr bolton is on the record for desiring every sheen change in tehran so for mr bolton and the people who are in favor of regime change the logic of this maximum pressure is that we are going to put as much going on the pressure psychological pressure political pressure international pressure on iran to bring iran to do negotiating table so be can get a better deal if iran doesn't come to the negotiating table their thinking is there could be a possibility of implosion eve on war there could be a possibility of regime change if you look at what has happened to be drawn into

past year the economic sanctions and the policy or distracted you of maximum pressure has created huge economic problems for you doc the kind of which i don't think you know on has experience at least since the start of the eve on iraq war in the past 39 years however we have not seen that kind of internal uprising or internal demonstrations that the ad put kid the regime change. they see these sanctions are crippling the iranian economy and unlike what a lot of people say the iranian government is hurting for sure but more than the iranian government it is the wrong in people that are hurting and i hope these sanctions could be lifted as soon as possible. 6 to 6 former u.s. military top brass have signed an open letter to trump calling to avoid further

confrontation with iran and turn to diplomacy do you thing moves like this can really change anything in the u.s. policies towards it on i do believe that these. kind of pressure by distinguished american military officers who have served the country well. you might not see in terms of public a statesman made by the american official but behind closed doors no doubt that they do have profound impact and there was nicely written and very thoughtful all right we're going to take a short break right now and when we're back we'll continue talking to most of the executive director of the center of diplomatic status at the university of south florida discussing the tensions between u.s. and iran and how they can be defused this.

media and even some politicians are giving. and it's no wonder a case can be made against is a blueprint for criminalizing journalism. journalism. and we're back with mo sandy lani the executive director of the center for

strategic and diplomatic studies at the university of south florida talking about the situation in iran. in meet april the dons foreign minister zarif that europe is lagging behind its commitments to save the iranian deal u.k. germany france have a stablished a so-called instrument for supporting trade exchanges aimed at going around the u.s. sanctions against iran but tehran says it's not enough what exactly does iran want to see him just iran expect the e.u. to start trading its sanction goods and confront the united states. yes excellent question the basis of the nuclear deal. was signed. 6 global powers was that. we would have real limitations on the iranian nuclear program. and for that the crip crippling

sanctions would be left while iran has essentially followed its implement its obligations and the international atomic energy agency has at least 16 or 17 times confirmed that iran has done its share of the subjugation unfortunately. the other 6 global powers but particularly the europeans and the united states have not and they do what they promised to do not after president trumped unit added we withdrew from 2 nuclear program the europeans tried to. try to somehow manage to convince iran not to get out of the nuclear deal and gainst them instead you refer to a sort of a compromise but unfortunately the europeans have not deliberate act all that mechanism has not worked because the europeans are really a place between

a hard place on a hard rock they cannot abandon the u.s. because the u.s. is their strategic ally and at the same time did not want to see the end of the new creative deal they have to deliver more and the reason why eat on has the side that to take some measures against the nuclear deal is to put pressure on the europeans to deliver and it's now time for the europeans to either deliver or iran might take additional actions but deliver what exactly that is the question. deliver us to liberty a peace the transfer of medicine and argue culture a product to eat on at this time and then later on to allow sales of oriel and other things by iran because iran the reason why iran made this decision to

undermine some provisions of the nuclear deal is because iran is not getting any of the benefits are supposed to get under the deal and so the iranians patience has ended they are saying either of you have to get some benefits from the nuclear deal or be essentially going to come out of it so this mechanism that the europe has set up could be expanded. it is only from what i understand the culture of products and medicines although it hasn't even been operationalized fully but any ties to be expanded beyond that the question is will europe decide to go ahead and do this when the united states opposes that i doubt very much if they're going to be able to deliver can't it ron really drop the deal altogether i mean isn't the current deal situation better than no deal at all. yes but the way the

iranians are thinking is that if these sanctions continue for another year or 2 and if the u.s. 6 seats in bringing iranian oil exports to 0 which is very unlikely but right now from what i understand it's below 600000 barrels a day from what it used to be 2400000 barrels a day then it's it could have drastic economic consequences inside iran so they have to act preemptively they can probably go on for another year or 2 but more time and it's going to be very difficult there for day trying to put pressure on the new europeans to to make some changes but ultimately in my judgment in my personal opinion the united states and iran should begin to renegotiate in the nuclear deal so president rouhani said recently that iran will

stop implementing some of its commitments under the nuclear deal is your money france u.k. have harshly reacted to this move saying that they want accept ultimatums from iran do you feel like tehran has been testing the limits of the cura paeans goodwill and their patients with iran is now kind of running out. i think the decision to wrong me. is important but in my judgment it's more of a symbolic gesture it is not going to really change the dynamics of iran's nuclear program at this time but it is a serious warning to the europeans that they meet and to i think the us that iran is not going to continue to be pressured economically and not restart its nuclear program it is so much pressure you can put them in a country and then you reach

a point where that country can nor longer accept the status quo so they are trying to prevent. the situation to reach a point where they have to completely get out of the nuclear program i think if they do it would be a huge mistake for these they'll make you pop because iran as far as i'm concerned should the stay in the nuclear program and as i said begin negotiations with the united states with washington so in the wake of the american withdrawal from the nuclear deal it on turn east where it's china but now we're ports are coming that in january 2019 the vote of iran china trade was only house that in january 29th chinese international kompany is are still exposed to u.s. pressure and china stop buying iranian oil so how much of a lifeline can iran calm down here and not very much the problem is and i think that's i do not want to justify but the europeans have done but part of their

argument made make some sense to me is why did governments european governments especially the germans and the french and the brits and why did they really want to help iran economically they have no control over their private sector hugh. and there are private sectors if they busy have to choose between the wrong in market versus the u.s. market again you don't have to be an economic genius to figure out that they would go with the u.s. markets and the problem our poor russia and china is not as severe as it is for europeans because in both countries many of the companies are controlled by the states so they might be able to help iran little bit more than the europeans can but ultimately if this sanctions regime is sustained it's iran would have eventually north choice but to make drastic decisions about

its nuclear program so personal homies suggests holding a referendum on staying in the nuclear deal what is the purpose of a referendum like that i mean how is it on in popular opinion or relevant to think lobel diplomatic game around its nuclear program i mean it's not like president rouhani or the supreme leader ever really ask people what they want to. yes just this idea but he has not answered the questions that you have asked him thinking is that there is a division within the leadership of these it is not so much that decisions in the wrong decisions in a lot of other countries are not based on democratic principles the reason why he's focusing on their birth for and he believes the only way the division of the.

functional fights about how to approach the us how to approach the west can be solved only through a prefer and because the 2 sides of the governing elite seem you're on one side hoping to open up iran toward markets and having a more balanced foreign policy between the soviet russia china and west more sister hardliners who are much more inclined to improve iran's relationship with. the east with russia with china he believes the have reached a point of impasse with end the governing elite and only baby can break the impasse through a referendum so there for a friend to me is more of an attempt to address the contradictions and the disagreements and a lack of consensus will send a governing elites and to agree listen to what people want so it on foreign

minister at once again has suggested that the gulf states should sign a non-aggression pact who specifically tehran inviting on war the biggest player in the region saudi arabia is united states ally and is strongly anti iran and the only true friend iran has in the region well is iraq i guess well. the situation in the region is that. we have actually. the 2 different camps of you have the camp of hardliners in the region led by saudi arabia and bahrain and the united arab emirates who seek to have a more hardline policy toward the islamic republic of iraq and then be also have countries like. like kuwait. and different iraq iraq and lebanon who do not want to see a confrontation between the u.s. and iran and who believe in

a more conciliatory posture toward the islamic republic now the proposal by iran for non aggression treaty is a good idea but really it's not realistic for 2 reasons number one as long as iran does not that for us its problem with the united states it cannot have a normal relations with the major countries in the region that is a fact that iran should not be there in independence for he is 2nd to me but perhaps even more important the threat perceptions that the rania's have is very different than the threat perceptions that the near the arab countries in the region especially hard on yourself for you ron the real threat comes from the united states and the perception that the u.s. is really after regime change now for the arab countries the real threat is what iran is actually doing in the region the formation of creation of various militia were going to zation its and what they think is iran interference in the internal

affairs of different arab countries as a result of the different threat perceptions it is very unlikely that the arab countries would agree with this idea it's an interesting idea but i'm afraid it is not a workable idea. fred thank you very much for this interesting insight we were talking to mossad malani think sakit if dire. sure of the center for strategic and diplomatic status at the university of south florida is whether the war of words between tehran and washington risks spilling over into our late that's it for this edition of so if you go i'll see you next time.

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