sophie shevardnadze the united states has ordered a military buildup in the middle east rising threat. nations on a bring. out conflict. of the executive director of the center for strategic and diplomatic status at the university of south florida. with a new round of sanctions on iran by the united states the prospect of a working diplomatic solution to the question of iran's nukes is fading with american troops massing in the region tensions between tehran and washington are becoming more dangerous for everyone will try to push the president into an even tougher stance on iran what exactly is the u.s. hoping to achieve with. the islamic republic and can the renewed american pressure really make. most an milani of the executive director of the center for strategic

and diplomatic studies at the university of south florida welcome to the show is rate great to have you with us mr maloney now you have been saying that chances of an all out war between united states and iran are very slim now as no side is really interested in an open conflict but recently pentagon has sent the us u.s.s. aberdeen lincoln aircraft carrier and b. 52 strategic bombers to the persian gulf to prevent iranian miscalculation as u.s. defense secretary has put it so well possible miscalculation can there be a part of iran what is there to prevent. thank you for having me on your program as i have said before i think the chances of a military confrontation or a full. fledged war between the united states and iran are very slim at this time because of the statesman being made by the iran's supreme leader ayatollah khomeini

as well as by do president of the united states donald trump recently donald trump has said very clearly very explicitly that he's not interested in getting in gage in another endless war in the middle east. that danger however is a miscalculation by either iran or do u.s. war or an event instigated by some regional players in that iran has to respond and then the u.s. has to respond to iranian response and then this can get out of control and denby might have a limited military confrontation this is why it is very important for iran and the united states to open channels of communication between their top leadership or at least between the military leaderships of the 2 countries so that because prevent a miscalculation or a military limited military confrontation between the 2 countries because if there

is a military confrontation even if it is a limited on it is not going to be it is not going to serve the interests of the united states interests of iran ward interests of the regional players because a war with iran is not going to be limited to war with iran it's going to become a regional conflict it has. one of iran's top military officials has already said that iran will send american warships at the bottom of the sea with some secret weapons is iran exaggerating its military capabilities or do they really have some super weapon nobody has heard about. i do not though if you don't has a secret nuclear weapon i doubt it very much i will take that more as a propaganda or a psychological warfare on the part of the wrong done is a serious threat in case there is a military confrontation between iran and the united states you do not have to be

a genius to figure out the outcome of the united states will prevail so us defense secretary patrick shanahan is saying that sending warships to the gulf is aimed at tearing not provoking iran my pump arrow is also saying that this is done against the possibility of iranian attack on americans or american interests so if iran is really planning to do anything against americans will list latest development really deter tehran from action. excellent question if you look at the iranian foreign policy in the east. 20 years 18 or 20 years you can see that they have developed what they think is a deterrence capability they have networks of militia organizations their own militia organizations that have been trained and supported by iran and defame king is that in case there is a retaliation about there is

a retaliation against iran by the united states iran can be tally not from its own soil but from the soil of other countries this was the law into our logic behind creating because one law in 198211 on the logic was that you're going to train an army has one law you're going to give it striking capability in case it's iranian facilities you might have the capability to strike against this story that is the logic behind what they're trying to do and the united states is sending a very clear message that they are aware of this and there are going to retaliate for swirly and hopefully as a result of what has happened in the past 2 weeks the wiser heads are prevailing in tehran and washington and there seems to be some the escalation of tensions between the 2 countries if the united states ready to use to troops aid has made it on or

are they there just to provide psychological pressure on tehran. my take and based on what i have seen so far and decision ration in the middle east right now is very fluid extremely fluid so i might have to change money views 5 days from now but based on everything i have seen so far this is more of a psychological war for intense psychological warfare is going on between the 2 countries there is no question about this but at the same time the us is not taking lightly the possibility of some sort of a confrontation be the iran if you look at the operations of the iranian the past 40 years they have made a huge important strategic decision never to come from the us directly and during the. occupation of iraq by the us iran provided supports to.

militias but iranian forces to my knowledge never confronted the us directly and it's very unlikely that iranian forces are going to come from to us very directly at this time so and we can't go present trump has literally threatened to end it on and now he sounds like a more conciliatory. well at least more than he didn't say she doesn't want war with iran what's behind the american presence changing referee i mean should we take this aggressive stance seriously. i think we have to take the war the president says seriously however what he's doing about iran is precisely what he has done by north korea. you respond to your enemies or to your rivals decisively forcefully but then you also leave a window of opportunity for the other side to begin negotiations the president believes president bush from his maximum pressure strategy against iran

imposing crippling sanctions has a profound beyond their mind the iranian economy and sooner or later iran is going to come to the negotiating table and therefore he will cation he makes a statesman such as the one that you refer to about which i also send the tweet and then a few days later he comes out with this statement about his desire and interest in a regime change you need iran and more than that i do not think that has ever been an american president who has so explicitly stated that he's not after we change you need on not only after we change and you don't want to step further and he said something extreme being porton that i hope tehran takes seriously and that is under the present leadership he said iran can become

a major economic and political force in the reach. so the u.s. official line is that they sole purpose of american sanctions on iran is to bring tehran to the negotiating table and produce a much better and fairer nuclear deal however i've heard opinions that washington is in fact aiming to push it on an economy into dire straits and provoke a revolution is that the real goal of american sanctions. i think it is very difficult to talk about what the real goals of the u.s. ministration is the do know that there is a major split ideological split between president's national security adviser mr john bolton and perhaps to a lesser degree secretary of state pump ale and the president the president is not interested in a regime change or in a war with iran as he has shown it to be to case of north korea however mr bolton

is on the record of poor desiring every cian change in tehran so for mr bolton and people who are in favor of regime change the logic of this maximum pressure is that we are going to put as much going on the pressure psychological pressure political pressure international pressure on iran to bring iran to do negotiating table so be can get a better deal if iran doesn't come to the negotiating table their thinking is there could be a possibility of implosion eve on war there could be a possibility of regime change if you look at what has happened to be gone in the past year the economic sanctions and the policy or distracted you of maximum pressure has created huge economic problems for you doc the kind of which i don't think iran has experienced at least since this started of the eve on iraq war in the past 39 years however we have not seen the kind of internal uprising

or internal demonstrations that the advocated the regime change thought see these sanctions are crippling the iranian economy and unlike what a lot of people say the iranian government is hurting for sure but more than the iranian government it is the wrong in people that are hurting. and i hope these sanctions could be lifted as soon as possible 6076 former u.s. military top brass have signed an open letter to trump calling to avoid further confrontation with iran and turn to diplomacy do you think moves like this can really change anything and u.s. policies towards it on i do believe that these kinds of blunders these kind of pressure by distinguished american military officers who have served the country well does have an impact you might not see be impact in terms of public

a statesman made by the american official but behind closed door i have no doubt that they do have a profound impact and there was a nice view within and very thoughtful. all right we're going to take a short break right now and when we're back we'll continue talking to mo sandra lani the executive director of the center of her strategic and diplomatic status at the university of south florida discussing the tensions between us and it on and how they can be diffused. facebook and google started with a great idea and great ideals unfortunately it was also a very dark so. they are constructing

a profile of you and that profile is real it's detailed and it never goes away turns out that google is manipulating your opinions from the very 1st character that you type into the search bar it will always be one dog food over another one comparative shopping service over another and one candidate over another they can suppress certain types of results on what they think you should be seen if they have this kind of power then democracy is an illusion the free and fair election doesn't exist the more growth we give them the sooner we're all. this footage is unique because there's a tribal lens on normally off limits to the public eric's allowed in because he's this is personal don't. people here know him simply is don't to eric

he's rich and famous some always on the move say the flying aircraft that the sets. he's considered one of the best neurosurgeons in brazil. that's happening. nothing's going to get the population is going to people. seem wrong. just don't. get to see.

this day. and indeed. the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. and we're back with most and we learned the executive director of the center for strategic and diplomatic studies at the university of south florida talking about the situation in iran. in late april aidan's foreign minister zarif set that europe is lagging behind its commitments to save the iranian deal u.k. germany france have a stablished a so-called instrument for supporting trade exchanges aimed at going around the

u.s. sanctions against iran but tehran says it's not enough what exactly does iran want to see and just iran expect the e.u. to start outright trading its sanction goods. and confront the united states the yes excellent question the basis of the nuclear deal. was signed. in this 6 global power was that. we would have real limitations on the iranian nuclear program. and for debt crip crippling sanctions would be left while iran has essentially followed its implement its obligations and the international atomic energy agency has at least 16 or 17 times confirmed that iran has done its share of

the subjugation unfortunately. the other 6 were world powers but particularly the europeans and the united states have not and they do what they promised to do not after president trumped unilaterally withdrew from 2 nuclear program the europeans tried to. try to somehow manage to convince iran not to get out of the nuclear deal and deigns to moments that you refer to as a sort of a compromise but unfortunately the europeans have not deliberate after all that mechanism has not worked because the europeans are really a place between a hard place on the hard rock they cannot abandon the u.s. because the u.s. is their strategic ally and at the same time did not want to see the end of the new deal they have to deliver more and the reason why eat on has the side that to take

some measures against the nuclear deal is to put pressure on the europeans to deliver and it's now time for the europeans to either deliver or iran might take additional actions. but deliver what exactly that is the question deliver us to liberty a peace the transfer of medicine and i grew cultural product to eat on at this time and then later on to allow sales of oriel and other things while you're on because iran the reason why iran made this decision to undermine some provisions of the nuclear deal is because iran is not getting any of the benefits are supposed to get under the deal and so the iranians strategic patience has in that they are saying either of you have to get some benefits from the nuclear deal or be essentially

going to come out of it so this mechanism that the europe has set up could be expanded dystonic it is only from what i understand the culture of products and medicines although it hasn't even been operationalized fully but any ties to be expanded beyond that the question is will europe decide to go ahead and do this when the united states opposes that i doubt very much if they're going to be able to deliver can't it ron really drop the deal altogether i mean isn't the current deal situation better than no deal at all. yes but the way the iranians are thinking is that if these sanctions continue for another year or 2 and if the u.s. 6 seats in bringing iranian oil exports to 0 which is very unlikely but right now from what i understand it's below 600000 barrels a day from what it used to be 2400000 barrels

a day then it's it could have drastic economic consequences inside iran so they have to act preemptively they can probably go on for another year or 2 but more time and it's going to be very difficult there for dave trying to put pressure on a new europeans to to make some changes but ultimately in my judgment in my personal opinion the united states and iran should begin to renegotiate their nuclear deal so president rouhani said recently that iran will stop implementing some of its commitments under the nuclear deal is your money france u.k. have harshly reacted to this move saying that they want accept ultimatums from iran do you feel like tehran has been testing the limits of the cure paeans goodwill and their patients with iran is now kind of running out. i think the decision to

wrong me. is important but in my judgment it's more of symbolic gesture it is not going to really change the dynamics of iran's nuclear program at this time but it is a serious warning to the europeans that they meet and to i think the us that iran is not going to continue to be pressured economically and not restart its nuclear program it is so much pressure you can put them in a country and then you reach a point where that country can nor longer accept the status quo so they are trying to prevent. the situation to reach a point guard they have to completely get out of the nuclear program i think if they do it would be a huge mistake for these they'll make you pop because iran as far as i'm concerned should the stay in the nuclear program and as i said begin negotiations with the

united states with washington so in the wake of the american withdrawal from the nuclear deal it on turn east where it's china but now with ports are coming that in january 2019 the volume of it on china trade was only house that in january 29th chinese international kompany is are still exposed to u.s. pressure erring china stop buying iranian oil so how much of a lifeline can iran calm down here. and not very much the problem is and i think that's i do not want to justify but the europeans have done but part of their argument made make some sense to me is why do governments european governments especially the germans and the french and the brits why do they really want to help iran economically they have no control over their private sector hugh. and there are private sectors if they have to choose between the brawny in market versus the

u.s. market again you don't have to be an economic genius to figure out that they would go with the u.s. markets and the problem our poor russia and china is not as severe as it is for europeans because in both countries many of the companies are controlled by the state so they might be able to help iran little bit more than the europeans can but ultimately if this sanctions regime is sustained it's iran would have eventually north choice but to make drastic decisions about its nuclear program so personal homies suggests holding a referendum on staying in the nuclear deal what is the purpose of a referendum like that i mean how is it on in popular opinion or relevant to the global diplomatic game around its nuclear program i mean it's not like president

rouhani or the supreme leader ever really ask people what they want to. yes just this idea but he has not answered the questions that you have asked his thinking is that there is a division within the leadership of these it is not so much that decisions in the wrong decisions in a lot of other countries are not based on democratic principles the reason why he's focusing on their birth for and he believes the only way the division of the. functional fights about how to approach the us how to approach the west can be solved only through a buffer and because the 2 sides of the governing elite seem you're on one side hoping to open up iran toward markets and having a more balanced foreign policy between the soviet russia china and

west more sister hardliners who are much more inclined to improve iran's relationship with. the east with russia with china he believes the have reached a point of impasse with end the governing elite and only baby can break the impasse through a referendum so there for a friend to me is more of an attempt to address the contradictions and the disagreements and a lack of consensus will send a governing elite down to greeley listen to what people want so it on foreign minister at once again has suggested that the gulf states should sign a non-aggression pact who specifically tehran inviting on war the biggest player in the region saudi arabia is united states ally and is strongly anti iran and the only true friend iran has in the region well is iraq i guess. well. the

situation in the region is that. we have actually a 2 different camps we have the camp of hardliners in the region led by saudi arabia and bahrain and the united arab emirates who seek to have a more hardline policy toward the islamic republic of iran and then be also have countries like that that like kuwait like home on and definitely doc iraq and lebanon who do not want to see a confrontation between the u.s. and iran and who believe in a more conciliatory posture toward the islamic republic now the proposal by iran for non aggression treaty is a good idea but really it's not realistic for 2 reasons number one as long as iran does not that for us it's a problem with the united states it cannot have a normal relations with the major countries in the region that is

a fact that iran should be there in india is 2nd to me but perhaps even more important the threat perceptions that the rania's have is very different than the threat perceptions that the near the arab countries in the region especially hard on your sat for you on the real threat comes from the united states and the perception that the u.s. is really after regime change now for the arab countries a real threat is what iran is actually doing in the region the formation of a creation of various militia were going to zation and what they think is iran interference in the internal affairs of different arab countries as a result of the different threat perceptions it is very unlikely that the arab countries would agree with this idea it's an interesting idea but i'm afraid it is not a workable idea. thank you very much for this interesting insight we were talking

to the executive director of the center for strategic and diplomatic status at the university of south florida is whether the war of words between tehran and washington risks spilling over into our late that's it for this edition of next time. business world. over the last 21 years has become a leading global platform for. emerging markets.

business community members. special forum coverage. media and even some politicians are. new look and it's no wonder a case can be made the us. is a blueprint for criminalizing journalism what fate is in store for a song will journalism suffer the same. is this the 1st one on top of the story or the person with the loudest voice of the biggest reasons. to stand. is just the right questions and the right answers.

he. has been subjected to inhumane treatment. and taken a striking. mental health. all the same. person. such. as the british foreign secretary go on the offensive. frame for making and fly. into the downing of flight 17. continue. to pin the blame for the $24.00. us. free.