in the form the trainers of the conservative party for many many years peter oborne welcome to the examine show a great pleasure alex so what we're considering this this new research royal ascot the tory leadership state. what do you qualities do you require to 2 americas as the winner of this race. well it's very like studying the the results of any race you have to look at. a form over a course and distance of they got the class look at the ownership the trainers you've got to make all of these assessments can they cope with the going of a been taken any noxious substances all of these that matters need to be taken into account let's start from the outside. and have a look at the well that and this is no detriment to them as they would be described in recent power levels as the rags in the brown or field estell mcvie mark

harper and matt hancock though their places currently are all 100 to one or all over any of them overpriced in your opinion the one of those 3 i would look at with a little bit of seriousness and some attention is it is hank hope he's clearly very ambitious and he comes from the old born the former chancellor george osborne stable a clever man he ran cameron for the leadership in 2000 of the army of was 100 to one no but he was not cyder an oddball was the trainer he got he was the chief strategist and osborne is running hancock it's very clear and 2nd secondly he's got david livingstone the ones once the deputy prime minister because some of the utech for the leadership not 0 as i never thought i thought he might be prime minister of some other kids. and that might have happened but anyway he's living to an interesting for instance so there's a bit of establishment support there's a bit of quiet money those logs is not unattractive but you think. mark karpal

no hope of spaces unfortunately yes although i have my own something what sparky about as for mcvey she's brings a bit of ready something different like oh she's never publicly and might go well the mainstream but we're not unfortunate talking about the grand national here with . flat rate so we should keep arriving home caught but hours of future but let's look at rory stewart and he's been at the surprise packet of the airlie stages of the recently cause much more of a star that may have been expected i love this run because he is in the process of reinventing political discourse the way he goes out and talks to people not just talks listens to people this is very unusual he appears to be unmediated i.e. he hasn't got this team of spin doctors around me piers to be doing it on his own

but what i love i. love about stuart is he's doing is own way now he is theft of 3 to one i ask of you it are a small investment yourself and if you know what i have done actually higher than that because i've found that i think even if he doesn't win this time your women here become tory leader proceeds to charity indeed and it's important but. i think that he's a very interesting player he is really come from nowhere he wasn't fancy at the start of a concept showed up very well in the early trials take at the rate that the watchers have been very very struck by him let's go for though the field dominic ramp he step if you want as well the present that is quite surprising because initially he was regarded as a perhaps are much more live well run of them defeat one where mr rubb campaign at the present moment and made to spark into life. i think rob has a major problem he's too young he's too mechanical he's too robotic and above all

he's got the boris johnson problem i.e. he is he embarrassed of those too hard to tears and he can't really compete with boris johnson and so rob is i think will disintegrate quite soon i would never i never fancied him i never felt he had a chance i felt that she was overpriced entering the one of his big backers perhaps as traders as david davis a willful whiten david davis self as opposed to put notice younger inexperienced horse dominic rob for 2 reasons one i think davis must be very scarred by 2005 when he started the context contest of us in our favorite to be david cameron and then he faltered and fell and i think he's still very bruised and secondly i think it's because david davis is the nice man dominic rob used to work for him used to be his research or is very gifted intelligent and rob probably made davis look rather better than he really was because he is that good and and so davis i think is doing

this on a personal boil thing now let's move on to someone who hasn't taken drugs in the home state but the judgment on him. is that if he won as well in the 4 percent he once toted does being one of the favors a bit of an outsider why is that he has a lack of spontaneity everything is very carefully calculated and contrived he's guilty of being a machine politician you would have thought without amazing background son of a bus driver a 1st generation immigrant. when you made a few 1000000 quid in the city going to politics there would have been a bit more to him you know a bit more swagger but everything is so calculated i wish that wasn't the case for some of his position i've been. just from the wind and was one of the people in the late sail of the. he has. on immigration of been less prejudice than the the

outgoing prime minister the arguments of a police numbers these were from the terms of being a cabinet minister trying to position himself in the late say that the bit as a local reward betting for for being rate the number of fish has something changed his positions on these conveniently listen to what they. mean when he was home secretary away and still be current predicament i didn't notice him being quite brave reshaping his positions to disavow our positions he was responsible for you know using the home said to be a politician yes but i will have saying is that he has these are long standing positions as far as i can tell and let's move on to what we make on the front or was the top 4 really much by the way i think he's looking good at the moment so job of could still i wouldn't i wouldn't rule him out of a contest at this stage ok ok but you have a better comparison in that right now michael gove and in some ways by far the most

interesting horse unless those contests in the sense that what is backwards is quite interesting but and previous contests but it started off as a very very strong 2nd favorite to johnson he drifted out alarmingly 2025 to one but last couple of days is odds of started to shorten again despite the lasik ok in the lasik so yes 6 revelations. so what know for michael gove. is he too clever by half well a my theory about why it's been so damaging to him the cocaine issue where is it hasn't others it's because the lot of people run to take revenge you need friends in politics and there are a lot of people who want to get rid of who have long standing grudges which they want to repay. one of them will be the friends of mr boris johnson who will recall that he was stabbed in the back in the front in the front by even the best

way the intended and interesting thing about these 2 great rivals michael corballis johnson could be termed as coming from the same stable could not not quite. the only johnson comes from the lynton crosby stable the trainer glinton crosby is the key figure in this contest because he's the best trainer by far it's like having a no brand adar darby morris has got the the man of the moment. brand of this contests instant however both of them come from the same what you might loosely the same ownership they are both backed by from the murdoch murdoch press them and that's called the owners were center and so go over who was sense murdoch and was with murdoch when he interviewed trump member to couple of years ago something the person says he can't remember indeed worley's. i think is the coverts very

memorable servitor not to the president and then of course murdoch dispatches top political editor of to the united states to interview trump to get trump to tip boris johnson so in other words what you've got here is that rupert murdoch and donald trump backing boris johnson very strongly and. of course rupert murdoch and trump a big big breaks it is and of course this brings in my firearms because trump's key political analysis alast as far as britain is concern is is larger for she takes his briefings from far away so much a one was for his with michael gove can he recover from that airless setback of the cain revelations or not in my view go is going to be very hard pressed to recover the way he had positioned himself was as the kind of compromise candidate

between the hard break to boris johnson and the more moderate rest of the party and gold go had sort of was going to be the all things to all men candid and there's one particular reason why the came revelations of hit him is because he's got a lot of enemies who are determined to use that in order to really damage ideally from their point of view destroy him and so the lot of this is about old fuge which are being settled. join us after the break when pito bernardo's down the field to his predictions as to who will make it through the final round off and who reach the finishing post at the door of number 10 downing street.

you know to go 2017 the german newspaper developed published an article claiming that the european union the last 30000000000 euros as a result of its very anti russian sanctions. particularly affected eastern europe many polish film as went broke and even committed suicide. sometimes i can't account for as i was off on a good time i would put up a little put on the ground on the. on the zip for young team to have to finance my view on the whole so i'm going to get stuck dolls and on to other kind of unknown home doesn't then let's see in the autumn and the pulling different if one strong the smiths in a position log. on doesn't dance with all the folks and that's what we call.

kind of financial survival today was all about money laundering 1st because if this could just be different. this is a good start well we have our 3 banks all set up for something and you're something in america something overseas in the cayman islands it will pull these banks are complicit in their tough talk or say we just have to give my phone and say hey i'm ready to do some serious wounds ok let's see how we did well we've got a nice luxury watch for. max and for stacy beautiful jewelry how about. luxury automobile for max you know what money laundering is highly illegal here to watch guys record.

welcome back i've been talking to peter oborne are a long standing observer of conservative leadership contest and someone has been assessing the runnels for the the contest that's going on at the present moment no peter we're down to the final 3 in the in the betting as the odds stand the snow is taught there and their lives and forced many people are surprised that she's still single for god so we can see that the number of m.p.'s back years of why isn't your lives and so shot in the betting market i agree with this point you're just making i mean andrea lives is going to live with figo she's been quite a good leader of the house of commons she ran last time and stumbled badly her course and distance form is dreadful only betting man would immediately write her off and that's proven by the fact that she has finally 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 employees backing her now i look at those odds and i would personally reporter 850210021

no chance at all and yet the actually though she is an 8 to one i can understand it doesn't make any sense if you are so me as somebody who's watched betting patterns over the years sometimes you get fake markets and funny money coming for a i think that's funny money i don't know where it's from what it's about doesn't make any sense to me it could be somebody who supports or wants her to make it is doing this in order to make her look much stronger than she actually is walk a mile for one. of the women of the race years the front running woman and be conservative m.p.'s as it were may be a good idea of a 1000000 female going to the final 2 and secondly of course the source the prospect all these other people might blow themselves up and she doesn't look like the candidate who's going to self combust. i agree you could argue she did she learn she's learned her lessons from from last time and that she is but the

calculation here is because she's the heartbreak satiric she's going to leave the 1st possible opportunity she's calculating that boris johnson will somehow implode and dominate robert be able to pick up take up the running and then she will come through as the candidate of the of the hard right maybe that's what she thinks let's come to the top 2 in the betting assistant the snow job hunt a surprise package in many ways in the sense that june early stages of this leadership recede he seems to of gaining ground again stature in a way which has surprised many people hasn't surprised me there are 2 if you look at the form book always as you know the racing man the 1st thing to look at there are 2 runners with the best form the 1st one is boris johnson who will come to is what he is one of the bigger election and the 2nd one is jeremy hunt he's got the form book as a future prime minister he's run a major department of state for a long period that's the state of health for 7 years and that was he didn't make

any big mess ups he kept it under control of bottle straight in our remember them campaign promises you're quite right about junior doctors and they were very and he did well you handle that strike saw them off very very cold and then the other one was it was the fact that he's now foreign secretary enables him to promote himself on the international stage some people say it's only succeeded as far as set to cause is succeeded but as john's that may or ready may not be true and somewhat say will he say that he added succeeded as far in surgery been absolutely useless but be that as it may it's given the opportunity to mingle with world leaders you know donald trump knows who he is is amazing actually and one up and michael go he up at least. oh and it's given him a bit of stature is the establishment candidate and that's very important because

it means he's got the chancellor of the exchequer he's means he's got a lot of big cabinet heavyweights and he's going to go on attracting support watch as the other candidates fall out as for instance. gove falls out you will find most of the govt supporters going to hunt i predict he's going to win the can win by quite a large margin in the 1st race the race among the m.p.'s that's what looks like really and totally nonpolitical way of course or perhaps apolitical we could could because the royal commission i wouldn't have thought that jeremy hunt was calling the world colors in this race i would. i mean also it wasn't forget that rory stewart was it was you not to search for the 2 princes i can't remember but i certainly think that boris johnson went be carrying the row colors level and michael michael go who as you will call disgracefully should have been the end of

his political career lete a private conversation here had a privy council terms with the queen i should say no less a little bit it looked absolutely cut and dried no question that that that he is the prime suspect and that is a lapse terrible thing to do much worse than the legal substances i would seize and the odds of the favorite the front runner of the man who's no odds on in the betting 4 to 6 and the way to sort some books 4 to 7 which is a very short prize for any horse race was just is he had kneeled on certainty as that place would suggest i don't think he is a nailed on certainty i i think that 4 to 6 is too short. wouldn't be good wouldn't be touching it going to his advantages he's one of actions like you you very very

few people in this country actually want bigger lections you've done it boris's done it but very rarely happens. and he's a winner and he's had experience of running running london and experiencing government although the thinking is the triumph of the foreign secretary and the weaknesses is not trusted by a great many people. hate it even if you can imagine it boris wins you will find certain figures actually quitting the tory party so let's get the number of goes every horseless must come to a conclusion and this horse race as you rightly said is a 2 stage is so firstly you have taps for the for the final 2 well i think the parliamentary party is likely to pile on behind behind jeremy hunt the foreign secretary with johnson coming a very distant 2nd and then they go to the country that we've month for hustings and unless mr johnson makes

a real mess of things he's likely to win among this very selective collection of people who mainly who are ardent brings its ears and quite a lot of them are great admirers of mr johnson at the moment it looks like the final 2 would probably be hunt versus johnson and allows in the country it's that is the race which favors jobs well let's just take least to a let's see either one of them becomes prime minister jeremy hunt becomes prime minister by a surprise mileage is to get past bars in the final straight. something happens arlo's them to win the race on the 20 activists what would be has biggest problem as prime minister coming into the common situation one big problem all of them face . as brick sees and the issue of doing getting through a deal which mrs may was unable to do because we all know. that europe isn't

changed its mind that there is not a possibility that we should barley or gentle of. the 40 year retires might see or thank goodness thank the lord does not bother the jobs of the as well as give those nice man the generally above a hand there is an interesting thesis isn't it that actually will say to these bricks it fanatics who are playing war live belushi those simply save you really won't break so you're more likely to get it from me for mr johnson who is regarded as something without the cat brought in in brussels so gently hunts difficulty be negotiating the the brakes a spark boris johnson if you becomes prime minister he's got a really big problem and parliament has a lot this is exactly right that he can e command a majority in parliament and that takes us on to this very interesting remark that

the prime minister mrs may said that she wouldn't she wouldn't reserve which she wouldn't quit until such time as her she was confident her successor could command a majority in parliament you're not telling me the will of the tory leadership stakes is going to be the outgoing prime minister who's just resigned well it could be if you taken literally let's assume therefore that mr and i think this must have been intended mr johnson johnson wins the contest in the country he becomes a tory leader but the prime minister says well i will and so i can't recommend to the queen my successor. until such time as i am confident that my successor has emerged can command a majority of the house and then majority can't do so and then the it will become. played that it once you added up the scots and that's the labor party implied comrie in the the u.p.a.

and 20 tories who say we're not going to serve on the johnson or vote for him that he counts the house just says no this is a great big roles rick and this is mayor sells off into the sunset that has remained as private as well and though even if the late julian critchley could have thought of a political ending such as such as that sort of what you're saying is there was a possibility that johnson might emerge as the winner of the release but be deprived in the stewards of exactly as the prime minister in consultation with other officials privately to get rid of him so what you're saying is that the glittering prizes of ted only st me may well be that hugh ever wins actually not just mr johnson is not prime minister for very long and if you were to write a political novel about the circumstances of the last few years would you have my sister come up with a plot which is quite as involved as complex and unlikely as the one which is no

unfold i advise against writing novels the real life is much more interesting field over thank you so much thank you ali. many harshly says throw up surprises but take them when the stakes are high after all that's what keeps bookies in a comfortable living and this case that was a runaway favorite and bought as johnson but the race is still in its very early stages until his high profile launch of yes the just in the big cat well out of the way living his rivals to make the running and of course the mistakes now he's out and cleared of the field of apparently unstoppable momentum there's many a slip between cup and lip and many a pet for between no and the downing street winning post certainly his opponents believe that is always the live possibility of borders blowing himself up however the biggest question of the leadership stakes applies to all of that unless those

who want to deal with europe have to explain how they can succeed where police amir's failed meanwhile the nor dealers have to explain how they can get such a proposition passed the parliament to have a majority across the parties determined to avoid that suck of stance it is precisely that possibility of a new deadlock between the winning toward a candidate and an unimpressed parliament which led to the old board to float the scenario that the outgoing prime minister could hang around until someone else demonstrates they can command a majority of the house of commons is still its inquiry after the race for the whether to lose the race in the room is perhaps far fetched have no candidate as yet has come up with a credible answer to the blacks that dilemma and if the new tory leader can't discovered it and discovered it soon than the one thing that unites us fractious party becomes ever more likely they are united in opposing an early general election but that is exactly where they may end up and then to

a new race where the people rather than the conservative party membership choose the next prime minister. and so for the 1000 me and all the show is goodbye for now .

live. live. live. please.

cleanse. and very well continue watching us and send us. you know world big to dig deeper to hit the stories that mainstream media refuses to tell more than ever we need to be smarter we need to stop slamming the door on the back and shouting past each other it's time for critical thinking it's time to fight for the middle for the truth the time is now we're watching closely watching the hawks.

see the cut. the medicine is not enough the kids you know. not my. son set out.

to catch fire in the gulf of oman in suspected attacks amid high tensions in the 3 percent prices soaring. the case home secretary hands a us takes edition request for julian the songs through the meeting the whistle blows fake could be decided at the hearing. very special alliance with very special people requires of our equipment planes. prices a new deal that sees a deepening of military ties with all of the 1000 extra u.s. troops will be deployed. 30 american fighter jets.