and a very warm welcome to you you're watching. the u.s. navy sends a 2nd destroyer to the site of 2 ship fires in the gulf of oman after accusing iran of attacking the oil tankers. the u.k. home secretary hands a u.s. extradition request for julian astonished to the courts meaning the whistleblowers fate could be decided at a hearing on friday. a new alliance of euro skeptic parties in the european parliament say they're ready to oppose the extension of until russian sanctions. the latest on these stories head to our dot com stay with us now though 1st sophie and co discussing the international standoff over.

to sophie and co i'm so. when lots of flashpoints around the middle east flaring up or setting and worse for now there is always the fear that tensions today could mean war tomorrow to talk about this i'm joined by. a man our program director at the international crisis group. still licking its wounds from war against isis the middle east is being pulled apart by a cold war between iran and saudi arabia and with america's hawks ramping up the pressure on terror is the region in danger of having the chill turned into a heat wave. keep up the proxy. definite win a remote from the middle east and rivalry. he was told to run great to have you on our program today welcome lots to talk about so let's start with this mess around

iraq. after a lot supposed a lot is that were coming out from the united states towards the iran deal on iran we're now hearing. the americans saying by the way we're ready to negotiate without preconditions. and at this point iraq later anything this is just play words getting it's delayed i think there'll be talks. i'm not going to make predictions in this case because you know that u.s. policy seems to change from day to day. very hard to predict what will happen next but so 2 things one is u.s. policy is really unclear and. we should keep that in mind as we go forward and i think the iranian leadership is also very much aware of that and they are probably i imagine hesitant to stake any kind of. future on the fact that. they cannot predict what the united states will

do next secondly there is a real difference within the american administration about how to deal with not only iran but the world and that difference is most starkly evident in the approach of different approaches of president trump and his national security advisor john bolton. president trump is someone who is more of an isolationist mindset he does not want to see the use of american troops outside the united states unless absolutely necessary. he was against the. iraq intervention not at the time but afterwards of course and and he's he's already said that u.s. troops should leave syria he has no interest in starting a war with iran that would involve the deployment of american forces john bolton on

the other hand is someone who is intent on regime change even though he's trying to not use those words when he talks about iran. by whatever means of course he would like to happen internally inside iraq. not with american military force but when you follow that kind of strategy it's all very difficult to imagine that american troops would not have to be involved but what is this nuclear deal thing this is just standard net 1st confrontation then you start negotiations i understand what you're saying about the differences within the white house but at the end of the day he does what he wants to do with the same happen with north korea as so i think what is important is that he is he that he's seen as a deal maker even though it's not clear he's ever made any deals in his life but he did not japan ok so it was a couple of deals sort of run of the mill deals but in terms of in the middle of

the china trade they well we'll see what happens in that maybe there will be a deal but i'm not sure the deal of the century on israel palestine which is not a deal but. we'll have to see what comes out of it it keeps being postponed but when it comes to the iran nuclear deal which was a real deal. what he seems to want is 1st of all to undo the legacy of his predecessor and secondly to be on the on the world stage making a deal that would earn him the nobel peace prize or whatever and to be seen as a deal maker where he can bring peace now if the iranian leadership will fall for the trap like what they've seen what happened was north korea there is no deal with north korea there's just treading water and so you know i'd be very skeptical that the iranian leadership which would go for this what can they convince their own people because while trying to denounce

a deal that was already negotiated he wants another one to replace it like if that can the iranian leadership personally have their own people that trump is not going to stand them up this time no no nobody can do that because once you have broken one deal why would you not break the next one and. again you know the president from doesn't have a record of sticking to deals anyway so it's making deals and sticking by them so. i would just the idea or a new leadership is probably trying to wait out a situation 1st of all they're waiting to see whether john bolton will stay in his position because in the end that is president trump's decision and secondly they'll try to see what happens in the american elections now if push comes to shove and they have to take a decision before that then it becomes interesting because then they may and we'll see what happens when the japanese prime minister goes to iran if they agree to talk another thing is that trump scuttling on this nuclear tail actually posted its

opponents because a lot of hardliners are against this compromise thing said what i'm thinking right now is that maybe they will even overpower rouhani and proceed the nuclear program well this is definite does what they have threatened and of course the reasoning behind it is that in order to come to a better deal that the united states says is one's for you from the iranian side then you have to raise the stakes and that means you have to restart your nuclear program because then you have more on the table that's in any kind of negotiation so that's a very dangerous proposition because of course then the other side the united states israel others will say well done we need to attack iran in order to prevent it from gaining a nuclear weapon what do you make of this 900 american troops and this whole contingent in the persian gulf i mean this is just like psychological warfare or

can 900 soldiers actually do something or maybe a psychological warfare can turn into a real or so this is this is exactly it of course if you want to put pressure on the united states talks about exercise. mexican pressure on iran and it's been showing it's doing that through sanctions and through military projection if you want if that's just try to do that of course doing this kind of thing will the pressure but the sort of result may be of 2 things is actually that's exactly it either. do you know the iranians decide that enough is enough and they come to the table or. there is some kind of spark before you know it you're in a dangerous as going to recycle and a real war and that's that's brinkmanship can the americans contain it i'm not sure i can hear a need to contain it i'm not sure through another i'm clear message was regarding

iran because the state department has said so many times that iran's threat in syria and it's to be contained and now we're hearing iran can do whatever they want in syria frankly that's a quote. what is this one and that is we're trying to find an answer to this question as well what do you make of it just the policy making in the united states is a total mess. ministration is inconsistent repeatedly missed the point they were the secretary of state has been overridden for example in libya most recently. openly blatantly and without any real logic behind it other than the president decided that certain things had to be done in a certain way without really having good information about it in the 1st place to syria policy reflects that as well and so i was in northern syria not so not so long ago in march and speaking with the leadership of the white p.g.d. the kurdish group and when the decision by president trump came in

december to withdraw u.s. troops from syria there was suddenly you know overnight it was a big panic because what will that do to us right the kurds were thinking they were not expecting this is totally you know on the fly this policy making we're going to come to kurds before that in syria the syrian government is advancing and is actually about to take the last rebel rebel held stronghold and that's fine with the russians but not so much with the turks and well no there were green men has actually given some sort of stability in the country but this latest offensive do you think it will actually destroy the consensus well it could of course as well is a different i don't know but trying to make predictions or my line of business because i usually get it wrong but the current offensive seems to be limited to one until now and it's also a way of putting pressure in fact on turkey in order to do something about the

problem of. its local offshoot in syria which was the original deal in sochi so turkey has not been able to deliver. on it because i don't think anybody can deliver on its was in a way you know an impossible agreement there's a real problem in the desire not just rebels against the government of bashar al assad but these are the most hard line of hardline people among the rebels the left overs who are the most brutal and you know it's very hard and were not particularly able and willing to make a deal with anyone certainly not with the regime. and so turkey can do what it wants and it has a point to some military incited lead but can it really deliver the just surrender of this group or a deal is almost impossible so in the end a military offensive is maybe the way to deal with it but of course for turkey this

is a huge problem because it would also entail the you know the prospect that a w2w who knows who knows how many people will flee toward turkey including a number of these jihadists and that is something that turkey cannot countenance but if president assad is actually able to take that stronghold do you think his victory in adelaide would actually and the war. well there are 8 you know but the war is already coming to an end in some ways but it certainly would be a turning point there's no question about it there is still the north east which is not a rebel held but held that a kurdish forces who have had a prior agreement with the regime but clearly there is also significant differences . but the war is essentially coming to an end the original driver of the conflict which was the protests by people know clearly and and other places throughout syria

against the regime that's over and that war has more that conflict that confrontation which turned into a war has been lost. and it lip is the last stronghold of what is the left overs of this confrontation but many people in syria who opposed bashar al assad don't support the people in the rebels. that this war in syria has been through a long and complicated and bloody. billions of factions fighting each other and i think it was very much like in lebanon to think like a post-war lead went on same scenario could work in syria where you have power sharing you have autonomy or this won't fly with us that. definitely was assad is won't fly. and he has a sense that he has won with some justification and so why would he given anything to his enemies who have lost in lebanon the situation was quite different there was

a civil war going on with no winners or losers. in syria the situation is not like that. of course power sharing would be much better and a political transition something that the americans and europeans are still calling for but realistically i don't see that the maybe some form of political process russians certainly is calling for that. but there is no real pressure for it and in the end this just going to say no and who is going to force we're going to take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to use tell taran men a program director at the international crisis group. officer . to get up off the ground of serbia get.

them on the sounds of an mit. officer. was to go away from the officer. we obviously did a kind of lunge for the web in one smith's and then what happened on chase one. didn't hit him i never saw any contact with you until any kind of went back to where they were so the answers back here that i again 15 feet apart at this point. is guy needed surgery. backstabbers financial survival. housing. oh you mean there's a downside to artificial mortgage. carried away report. and

we're back with his children rant and then a director for the international crisis quit mr hunter men where you get the sanest that isis has been defeated in syria and in iraq but yet there are at least a 1000 extremists are believed to have crossed the iraqi border and we saw the video of the chatter later baccarat al baghdadi and here appeared in a video we believe could be the iraqi unbar province says it too are there to celebrate the fate of their not only about the leadership. so wherever but daddy is today never mind but he probably is somewhere in the desert in syria or in iraq where he likely in iraq. the that is not your only problem of course that is

a problem because it's not his he's the leader he can try to reorganize to remove his supporters and to have a media department do all the things that an organized leadership can do even if they're all on the run and hiding out in the desert but there's another problem again i was in norton syria and in march we do work both in syria and in iraq and it's very clear that there are also at the local level a number of isis activists quite active operational not highly organized but all the same. able to carry out attacks assassinations of local leaders. and making the roads unsafe throughout davis or province and in the province and elsewhere and that is it's an endemic problem that is actually predates isis and will continue other new devices leadership and other

forms so when i look back at this whole isis war it ices in iraq has partially reason because of the great insight of the sunni iraqis under this shared dominated government what has been badly to do to ensure that sudanese won't rebel again. it was very simple and very hard this simple answer is they need to rebuild the sunni areas of iraq mosul followed john other cities that were utterly destroyed in the fight against isis and they need to have some kind of process of reconciliation within these communities and at the national level as well and that is not happening because for a number of reasons one is the sheer islamists in power in back that are deadly afraid that the sunnis will come back like under the former regime of saddam hussein or now under isis or some other form it's a it's

a very instinctive fear from having been under the boot of the former regime for so long so sort they're very afraid of that secondly they have no love for these people and they think that by keeping the weak and divided they can take care of the problem but of course that is exactly the these are exactly the conditions that gave rise to isis in the 1st place so this could easily come back. at the 3rd problem is the corruption issue is really the biggest threat in iraq today other than the confrontation between the united states and iran and the corruption is making it impossible for to spend money wisely in sunni areas for reconstruction so it's not happening so this health wouldn't preparers international track in and try to you know for i say sires what you make of it do you think it's workable. we've seen tribunal's before they tend to take

a lot of time they're necessary by the way i do support them but they take a lot of stuff if they're independent we saw in iraq tribunal took a lot of time but also it wasn't truly independent and then you have the notion of victor's justice the problem in iraq today is that is the total absence of due process in the prosecution. all of the members of isis in the suspected members of isis including family members and this is a real problem people are being so merrily executed after a court hearing that there were no evidence is presented that makes any sense of where you have no confiscation so in that sense a tribunal is necessary but whether you can actually organize a tribunal in iraq today that is a huge question so we'll come to turn to kurds now because kurds obviously in this whole defeating the isis operation probably the most of the on the bloodiest hard to work yeah and now what do we have we have one of the syrian

countenanced that is overrun by the turks the and other one is actually under threat in iraq the kurdish backed for independence was denounced. are kurds going to benefit at all out of this victory. you see the kurds you know they have a very long standing aim 200 years old of having an independent state which they think was denied after the fall of the ottoman empire. but they have been split over 4 countries and but in each country they have fought their struggle. when the arab uprisings happened to 2011 the kurds saw an opportunity because of the vacuum that was created. and then when isis appeared on the scene in syria and then in iraq they saw an additional opportunity by fighting on the side of the united states and the western countries fighting isis to use that support the

military support as a way to build up their case politically and diplomatically for independence the problem is that for the united states and others they wanted to fight isis and they needed the kurds to help them but they don't the united states doesn't support kurdish independence and so this is why now the white b.g. in syria and the care gitta kurdish regional government in iraq have been left basically twisting in the wind when the united states says well you know frank you for helping us defeat isis but we're not supporting you in your quest to become independent so goodbye not goodbye but you know not to support the kurds wanted and in fact serious set backs in the case of the iraqi kurds when you know they also control over the disputed territories including you know that your kook oil fields . i want to talk a little bit about what's going on in the region as

a whole the power balance because this is the rivalry between iran saudi arabia and the gulf states and they can't seem to agree on anything they can't even agree on when the ramadan stars are right now we're seeing that saudis gathering bunch of summits swimmingly successful when i lying other states against iran do you think do you think. the saudi can really create an alliance against iran in a region. well they can they can create a rhetorical alliance against iran in the region but not a military one because the saudis don't fight they have trouble enough keeping do things out of now john in southern saudi arabia they have an air force of course. even in yemen they have not been able to deal a decisive blow against 23 rebels. so do only a potent military force in the gulf is the united arab emirates they have

a strong military and a very good air force but it's a very small country. egypt has a big military but doesn't want to get involved in fighting part of this alliance pakistan outside the region doesn't want to get involved in this way except rhetorically israelis are interested in some kind of alliance against iran because it's the common enemy at the same time the israelis have to own agenda their own way of doing things and so they know that they cannot rely on the saudis to do any fighting so what is actually happening is that all of them are looking at the united states to make the decisive move. and to ploy also its own military force but we've already discussed president trump and this is not what he's all about this is contrary to what he believes and so we are in a strange situation where everybody is making a lot of noise about military action against iran but nobody in the part of that

alliance actually wants to do it there's no desire for it so they hope that iran makes a mistake and somehow and then some kind of confrontation and then the iranians will be forced to come to the table you know begging for some kind of solution on american terms but you know i think that is dreaming that's a pipe dream they haven't been able they haven't made any mistakes yet so i don't know what mary smart sophia. but the pressure is rising and so we have to say you know what really understands this whole rhetoric of iran is the threat to the entire world i'm going to go back and see a shared terrorist you know oh no only to have been attacked but this is i mean the united states do to be fair to understand their argument as well they don't like the fact that iran is very strong inside iraq is also very strong inside syria is supporting the who's the rebels they see raining footprints rotor region certainly

this is also the perception of israel and of saudi arabia and the united arab emirates and they want to talk about terrorism that's about iran presence in these countries and pushing an agenda that the united states clearly opposes so it's that's the consultation but. you know there are different ways of dealing with. the obama administration had one way we can criticize and they say that the nuclear deal was insufficient it wasn't sufficient but it was a 1st step now we're back to square one we have to figure out are we going to confront the military or are become going to come to a deal that so who is a better deal but why would your aliens sign on to a deal when they know that the united states may throw it out the next day. because you mentioned yemen it's been an ugly war and obviously it's saudi iran cold war that's very hot in yemen and saudi is fighting the who with the rebels and. i

mean all around the world we hear the calls to ban the arms sales to saudi arabia and what we see right now is in france for instance 50 percent arab states are going up america and u.k. are selling arms to the saudi arabia i mean the leaders of this countries will go overboard except their america to underline the dire humanitarian situation in yemen but then yet they would go. ancel lucrative dalles to saudi arabia no matter what so that's called hypocrisy yeah. you know that is a real problem and of course we as a coffee prevention organization are making his strong points very strongly that it is unconscionable to on the one hand say you know there's a terrible conflict here and look at the humanitarian disaster with people starving and children dying of starvation and disease like cholera and at the same time to be selling weapons to that would sit very cynical and hypocritical. in any case we

need to come to a political solution to this conflict and there is there was momentum building and of course the murder of. laci in the saudi consulate in istanbul was a turning point or it seemed to be in the united states congress at least when suddenly the pressure mounted on the trumpet ministration to take a different approach and i was and that led to an agreement in and sweden that is still in the process of being implemented but it's going very slowly it's the only thing we've got at the moment if that falls apart and we are again also in yemen back to square one and that would be terrible because then the war will continue for a longer time with all the humanitarian consequences that we have seen. children it's been great talking to my leisure and i stress and i stand for what.

seemed wrong all right old old just don't call. me old yet to say proud disdain comes to advocate and in games from an equal betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground.

feel welcome you should all walcha normal goggles. a member real world will know your body your destroying your ocean cruise it. was a march. for more than most of the world that. you would use new york city for some still. lead you to surround us. one of them wanted something. new for the church or a hoarder.