the iraq intervention not at the time but afterwards of course and and he is he was he has already said that u.s. troops should leave syria he has no interest in starting a war with iran that would involve the deployment of american forces john bolton on the other hand is someone who is intent on regime change even though he's trying to not use those words when he talks about iran. by whatever means of course he would like to happen internally inside iran not with american military force but when you follow that kind of strategy it's all very difficult to imagine that american troops would not have to be involved but what does this nuclear deal thing this is just standard net 1st confrontation then you start negotiations i understand what you're saying about the differences within their white house but at the end of the day he does what he wants to do with that same happen with north

korea as so i think for trump what is important is that he is he that he's seen as a deal maker even though it's not clear he's ever made any deals in his life but he did not japan ok so it was a couple of deals sort of run of the mill deals but in terms of even little of the china trade they well we'll see what happens in that maybe maybe there will be a deal but i'm not sure the deal of the century on israel palestine which is not a deal but a plan we'll have to see what comes out of it it keeps being postponed but when it comes to the iran nuclear deal which was a real deal. what he seems to want is 1st of all to undo the legacy of his predecessor and secondly to be on the on the world stage making a deal that would earn him the nobel peace prize or whatever and to be seen as a deal maker where he can bring peace now if the iranian leadership will fall for the trap like what they. seen what happened was north korea there's no deal with

north korea there's just treading water and so you know i'd be very skeptical that the iranian leadership which would go for this what can they convince their own people because while trying to announce that they deal that was already negotiated he wants another one to replace it like if that can they ran in leadership personally of their own people that trump is not going to stand them up this time no no nobody can do that because once you have broken one deal why would you not break the next one and again you know the president trying doesn't have a record of sticking to deals anyway so it's making deals and sticking by them so. i would just the idea or a new leadership is probably trying to wait out a situation 1st of all they're waiting to see whether john bolton will stay in his position because india that is president trumps decision and secondly they'll try to see what happens in the american elections now if push comes to shove and they

have to take a decision before that then it becomes interesting because then they may and we'll see what happens when the japanese prime minister goes to iran if they agree to talk another thing is that trump scuttling on this nuclear tail actually posted its opponents because a lot of hardliners are against this compromise thing said what i'm thinking right now is that maybe they will even overpower rouhani and proceed the nuclear program . well this is definite does what i have threatened and of course the reasoning behind it is that in order to come to a better deal that the united states says is ones for you from the iranian side then you have to raise the stakes and that means you have to restart your nuclear program because then you have more on the table that's in any kind of negotiation so that's a very dangerous proposition because of course then the other side the united

states israel others will say well we need to attack iran in order to prevent it from gaining a nuclear weapon what do you make of this 900 american troops and this whole contingent in the persian gulf i mean this is just like psychological warfare or can 900 soldiers actually do something or maybe a psychological warfare can turn into a real or so this is this is exactly it of course if you want to put pressure on the united states talks about exercising maximum pressure on iran and it's been showing it's doing that through sanctions and through military projection if you want if that's just try to do that of course doing this kind of thing will to the pressure but the sort of result may be of 2 things is actually that's exactly it either. do you know the iranians decide that enough is enough and they come to the table or. there is some kind of spark before you know it you're in

a dangerous as good tory cycle and a real war and that's that's brinkmanship can the americans contain it i'm not sure i can hear a need to contain it i'm not sure through another i'm clear message was regarding iran because the state department has said so many times that iran's threat in syria and it's to be contained and now we're hearing iran can do whatever they want in syria frankly that's a quote. what is this one and that is we're trying to find an answer to this question as well it's literally just the policy making in the united states is a total mess. ministration is inconsistent repeatedly missed the point they were the secretary of state has been overridden for example in libya most recently. openly blatantly and without any real logic behind it other than the president decided that certain things had to be done

a certain way without really having good information about it in the 1st place to syria policy reflects that as well and so i was in northern syria not so not so long ago in march and speaking with the leadership of the white p.g.d. the kurdish group and when the decision by president trump came in december to withdraw u.s. troops from syria there was suddenly you know overnight it was a big panic because what will that do to us right the kurds were thinking they were not expecting this is totally you know on the fly this policy making we're going to come to kurds before that in syria the syrian government is advancing and is actually about to take the last rebel rebel held stronghold and that's fine with the russians but not so much with the turks and well no they were green men has actually given some sort of stability in the country but this latest offensive do you think it will actually destroy the consensus well it could of course whether it

will is a different i don't know but i try to make predictions or my line of business because i usually get it wrong but the current offensive seems to be limited to one until now and it's also a way of putting pressure facts on turkey in order to do something about the problem of. its local offshoot in syria which was the original deal in sochi so turkey has not been able to deliver. on it because i don't think anybody can deliver on its was in a way you know an impossible agreement there's a real problem in the desire not just rebels against the government of bashar assad but these are the most hard line of hard line people among the rebels the left overs who are the most brutal and you know it's very hard and were not particularly able and willing to make a deal with anyone certainly not with the regime. and so turkey can do what it

wants and it has a point to some military and sided lead but can it really deliver the just surrender of this group or a deal is almost impossible so in the end a military offensive is maybe the way to deal with it but of course for turkey this is a huge problem because it would also entail the you know the prospect that a w2w who knows who knows how many people will flee toward turkey including a number of these jihadists and that is something that turkey cannot countenance but if president assad is actually able to take that stronghold do you think his victory in adelaide would actually and they were. well there great it you know but the war is already coming to an end in some ways but it certainly would be a turning point there's no question about it there is still the north east which is not rebel held but held that a kurdish forces who have had

a prior agreement with the regime but clearly there is also significant differences . but the war is essentially coming to an end the original driver of the conflict which was the protests by people locally and other places throughout syria against the regime that's over and that war has more that that conflict that confrontation which turned into a war has been lost. and it lip is the last stronghold of what is the left overs of this confrontation but many people in syria who opposed bashar al assad don't support the people in it the rebels. that this war in syria has been through a long and complicated and bloody. billions of factions fighting each other and i think it was very much like in lebanon to think like a post-war lead went on same scenario could work in syria where you have power sharing you have autonomy or this won't fly with us that.

definitely was us others won't fly. and he has a sense that he has one with some justification and so why would he given anything to his enemies who have lost in lebanon the situation is quite different there was a civil war going on with no winners or losers. in syria the situation is not like that. of course power sharing would be much better and a political transition something that the americans and europeans are still calling for but realistically i don't see that there may be some form of political process russia certainly is calling for that but there's no real pressure for it and in the end assad is just going to say no and who is going to force we're going to take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue talking to use tell men a program director at the international crisis group.

it's. not real world will know what's happened here but what if. the board was to be. you would usually lead to believe but i'm still used. to lead you to surround us just. monday morning from

a little bit of this shit but i hoard i'm just going to the local butchers to. voice your own work or one lose your means lucas the chutzpah to look at your bullshit to look at you look isn't what you heard the theory was that. you don't like the word chapter and. your philosophy was. so small it seemed wrong when all rolls just don't hold. any you believe yet to shape out of disdain he comes to educated and in games from an equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground.

why a paradise with all year round turned into a round the experimentation field but agricultural chemicals we know that these chemicals have consequences they are major irritants there's no question otherwise why would the chemical company workers themselves be geared up that suited up locals attempt to combat the on regulated experiments that often in day you have many of these people one foot into the biotech pharma and the other foot in the government regulatory bodies this kind of collusion is reprehensible while the battle goes on the chemicals continue to poison hawaii and its people so one has to ask the question whether there is a form of environmental research going on in hawaii whether these companies feel they can get away with this because the people have less political power.

and we're back with his children and then a director for the international crisis quit mr hunter men where you get the say and said isis has been defeated in syria and iraq but yet there are at least a 1000 extremists are believed to have crossed the iraqi border and we saw the video of the chatter. about daddy and hair appeared in a video we believe could be the iraqi unbar province says it too are there to celebrate the fate of their not only about the leadership. so we're about a dad he is today never mind but he probably is somewhere in the desert in syria or in iraq was very likely in iraq. the only problem of course that is a problem because it's always he's the leader. he can try to reorganize and to

remove the lies his supporters and to have immediate apartment and do all the things that an organized leadership can do even if they're all on the run and hiding out in the desert but there's another problem again i was in norton syria and in march we do work both in syria and in iraq and it's very clear that there are also at a local level number of isis activists quite active and operational not highly organized but all the same able to carry out attacks assassinations of local leaders. and making the roads unsafe throughout the day those who are province and in province and elsewhere and that is it's an endemic problem that is actually predates isis and will continue other is new to isis leadership and other forms so when i look back at this whole isis

war it i think is in iraq has partially reason because of the great in say the sunni iraqis under this year dominated government what has been badly to do to ensure that sudanese won't rebel again. it was very simple and very hard simple answer is they need to rebuild the sunni areas of iraq mosul followed john other cities that were utterly destroyed in the fight against isis and they need to have some kind of process of reconciliation within these communities and at the national level as well and that is not happening because for a number of reasons one is the sheer islamists in power in back that are deadly afraid that the sunnis will come back like under the former regime of saddam hussein or now under isis or some other form it's a it's

a very instinctive fear from having been under the boot of the former regime for so long so so they're very afraid of that secondly they have no love for these people and they think that by keeping the weak and divided they can take care of the problem but of course that is exactly the these are exactly the conditions that gave rise to isis in the 1st place so this could easily come back. at the 3rd problem is the corruption which is really the biggest threat in iraq today other than the confrontation between the united states and iraq and the corruption is making it impossible for to spend money wisely in sunni areas for reconstruction so it's not happening so this health wouldn't preparers international tribunals tribe you know for i say fighters what you make of it do you think it's workable. we've seen tribunal's before they tend to take a lot of time they're necessary by the way i do support them but they take

a lot of if they're independent we saw the iraq tribunal took a lot of time but also it wasn't truly independent and then you have the notion of victor's justice the problem in iraq today is that is the total absence of due process in the prosecution. all of the members of isis in the suspected members of isis including family members and this is a real problem people are being so merrily executed after a court hearing that there were no evidence is presented that makes any sense of where you have no conscious station so in that sense a tribunal is necessary but whether you can actually organize a tribunal in iraq today that is a huge question so we'll come to turn to kurds now because kurds obviously in this whole defeating the isis operation probably the most of the on the bloodiest hard to work yeah and now what do we have we have one of the syrian

countenanced that is overrun by the turks the and other one is actually under threat in iraq the kurdish backed for independence was denounced. are kurds going to benefit at all out of this victory. you see the kurds you know they have a very long standing aim 200 years old of having an independent state which they think was denied after the fall of the ottoman empire. but they have been split over 4 countries and but in each country they have fought their struggle. when arab uprisings happened to 2011 the kurds saw an opportunity because of the vacuum that was created. and then when isis appeared on the scene in syria and then in iraq they saw an additional opportunity by fighting on the side of the united states and the western countries fighting isis to use that support the military support as a way to build up their case politically and diplomatically for independence the

problem is that for the united states and others they wanted to fight isis and they needed the kurds to help them but they don't the united states doesn't support kurdish independence and so this is why now the white b.g. in syria and the care gitta kurdish regional government in iraq have been left basically twisting in the wind when the united states says well you know frank you for helping us defeat isis but we're not supporting you in your quest to become independent so goodbye not goodbye but you know not to support the kurds wanted and effect serious set backs in the case of the iraqi kurds when you know they also control over the disputed territories including you know that your kook oil fields . i want to talk a little bit about what's going on in the region as a whole the power balance because this is the rivalry between iran saudi arabia and

the gulf states and they can't seem to agree on anything they can't even agree on one their ramadan stars are right now we're seeing that saudis gathering bunch of summits simming lee successfully and i lying other states against iran do you think do you think. the saudi can really create an alliance against iran in the region. well they can they can create a rhetorical alliance against iran in the region but not a military one because the saudis don't fight they have trouble enough keeping do things out of now john in southern saudi arabia they have an air force of course. even in yemen they have not been able to deal a decisive blow against the who's the rebels. so do only a potent military force in the gulf is the united arab emirates they have

a strong military and a very good air force but it's a very small country. egypt has a big military but doesn't want to get involved in fighting part of this alliance. outside the region doesn't want to get involved in this way except rhetorically israelis are interested in some kind of alliance against iran because it's a common enemy at the same time the israelis have their own agenda their own way of doing things and so they know that they cannot rely on the saudis to do any fighting so what is actually happening is that all of them are looking at the united states to make the decisive move. and to deploy also its own military force but we've already discussed president trump and this is not what he's all about this is contrary to what he believes and so we are in a strange situation where everybody is making a lot of noise about military action against iran but nobody in the part of that

alliance actually wants to do it there's no desire for it so do you hope that iran makes a mistake. somehow and then some kind of confrontation and that the iranians will be forced to come to the table you know begging for some kind of solution on american terms but you know i think that is dreaming that's a pipe dream they haven't been able they haven't made any mistakes yet so i don't know i mean very smart sophia. but the pressure is rising and so we have not seen anyone really understands this whole rhetoric of iran is the threat to the entire world i'm going to be a shit terrorist you know no no only been attacked but this is i mean for the united states to do to be fair to understand their argument as well they don't like the fact that iran is very strong inside iraq is also very strong inside syria is supporting the who's the rebels they see raining footprints road to region certainly this is also the perception of israel and of saudi arabia and the united

arab emirates and they want to talk about terrorism that's about iran presence in these countries and pushing an agenda that the united states clearly opposes so it's that's the consultation but. you know there are different ways of dealing with. the obama administration had one way we can criticize and they say that the nuclear deal was insufficient it wasn't sufficient but it was a 1st step now we're back to square one we have to figure out are we going to confront the military or are become going to come to a deal that so who is a better deal but why would your aliens sign on to a deal when they know that the united states may throw it out the next day. because even mentioned yemen it's been an ugly war and obviously it's saudi iran cold war that's very hot in yemen and saudi is fighting the who with the rebels and. i

mean all around the world we hear the calls to ban the arms sales to saudi arabia and what we see right now is in france for instance 50 percent arab states are going up america and u.k. are selling arms to the saudi arabia i mean the leaders of this countries will go overboard except the america to underline the dire humanitarian situation in yemen but then yet they would go. ancel lucrative dales to saudi arabia no matter what so that's called hypocrisy yeah. you know that is a real problem and of course we as a coffee prevention organization are making a strong points very strongly that it is unconscionable to on the one hand say you know there's a terrible conflict here and look at the humanitarian disaster with people starving and children dying of starvation and disease like cholera and at the same time to be selling weapons to the very cynical and hypocritical. in any case we need to

come to a political solution to this conflict and there is there was momentum building and of course the murder of. laci in the saudi consulate in istanbul was a turning point or it seemed to be in the united states congress at least when suddenly the pressure mounted on the trumpet ministration to take a different approach and i was and that led to an agreement in and sweden that is still in the process of being implemented but it's going very slowly it's the only thing we've got at the moment if that falls apart and we are again also in yemen back to square one and that would be terrible because then the war will continue for a long time with all the humanitarian consequences that we have seen. around it's been great talking to you thank you my leisure and i stress and i stand for but.

after a breakdown in negotiations presidents try and she may soon again meet to shout a trade deal the stakes couldn't be higher both sides meet a perceived win failure could witness the global economy divided rival blocks. internet for. what politicians do. they put themselves on the line they get accepted or rejected. so when you want to be president. wanted. to going to press this is what before 3 in the morning can't be good. i'm interested always in the waters about how. things should.

you know to go 2017 the german newspaper developed published an article claiming that the european union the last 30000000000 euros as a result of its very anti russian sanctions. particularly affected eastern europe many polish film as went broke and even committed suicide. sometimes i can't account for as i goes of on the good. will put on the ground around the. room as i look. on these if the younger jim did have to finance my view on the whole saga going against the dolls and on to other kind of unknown police think it doesn't then let's see in the autumn in the pool in the flood song the smiting. on doesn't dance

with all the folks and that's what you call. us crashing on the global markets so when that happens people buy gold nation the bygone countries michael center banks michael the mind gold the buy for gold it's making a new all time highs australian dollars to make an almost eyes on russian robles almost denies a canadian dollar. almost. all over the world it's creeping higher because of the trust being eroded.

in the. u.k. court rules wiki leaks co-founder julian assange will not face his u.s. extradition hearing until next year in america he could face up to 175 years in prison. also this hour the crew of one of the oil tankers damaged in a suspected attack in the gulf they were hit by a flying projectile apparently contradicting u.s. claims that a mine on the vessel. has hit back at the american allegation accusing the u.s. of resorting to sabotage on the sea. and tech giants are accused of silencing speech they don't like after you tube removed a video by a project detailing the way social media interest allegedly censors can serve to be

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