can afford dean says indie camp the people's vigil to scottish independence a great demonstration the longest consecutive days and nights demo for scotland's independence just a reminder from dean about their work to see this is i'm afraid that the focus on the number of march or state is on the program are the ones quoted by all under one banner the march organizers please be aware that video evidence is out there disproving those over inflated figures 12789 counted marching in edinburgh not 100000 called in the plight i was in the crowd to edge and he says and also many of these marches and i can definitely confirm with the utmost confidence that the fed this edge of the well above 100. finally len says thanks alex it's about time we've got some coverage now that it's never been a more anticipated problem and she session where anything and everything is being speculated upon from boots of confidence to cross party problematic use against the government to government coups against the parliament to the thought that mr speaker bercow himself might end up leading the parliament to rebellion against the

progress of parliament proposed by the government province struck 1st this week with a cross party church stickler ration stating the intention to block parliament being suspended over the break to pedia dining she struck back yesterday by one thing wrong with st for shutting down parliament pending a queen's speech in mid october just dramatically cutting down the opportunity for parliament she initiatives however public will still be meeting next week and may still attempt to seize control of the art of paper from the government i detect to legislate against an ordeal break that it is clear that mr brokaw would facilitate such a move describing the government's moving out and outreach in addition the courts may take a hand with a scottish court action led by the for measurable jarana charity to see already until we however promise time to act has been severely limited by the government's moves no one can be sure high the strong will all play out over the next few weeks

however to engage in some informed guess work alex is joining to victoria tara gardens by top political commentators peter oborne and steve richards if anyone knows what's going to happen then go. joins us from victoria that's right outside the palace of westminster where next week the m.p.'s return from the whole of this for a dramatic do new more of the bracks struggle no one really knows what's going to happen those early number of permutations but if anyone can help us understand that my guess the big computer or steve riches to double the of political commentary welcome to. peter if only knows the inner workings of the conservative party you do so what is going on with boris johnson the snow is he actually wanting a deal or is it just appearing are an election plot for mr johnson i can assure you really wants a deal it's a very intelligent man he's been

a brussels correspondent 30 years ago he understands how europe works and i know that because i've talked to quite a lot over many years he knows no deal is going is the work road to do a road to industrial devastation in this country he knows the language of europe as well he can talk to donald tusk we saw that over the weekend he can talk to the diplomats the politicians he got on well even with macro of course he wants a deal what he has also to handle of course is his rhetoric the other audience which he has to deal which is the conservative party very very fanatical people who want no deal and that won't have anything to do with europe and in order to become leader of the conservative party he's had to ship itself to the where guns of the conservative party that is the dilemma we are in at the moment so steve

is that your reading of the situation or do you think johnson seems to be making demands of other europeans that they can't possibly meet he is making parts which they can't meet. that doesn't mean that he doesn't want to deal it is obvious that a better solution for him if he could find one but i'm usually for a new british prime minister he has left himself no wriggle room is the plan is a game plan to turn the other parties and into a parliamentary vote to fade or because i barely for a nearly election to go to the polls when the going is good i don't like talking about speculation in politics what what might somebody be doing or going into motivation i just want to describe what you can see happening and what you're seeing happening is a constitutional and political outrage and that entertaining the idea of no deal which means the degradation of industrial britain it means thousands of

people in britain losing their jobs maybe hundreds of thousands now for mr cummings who lives in the northumberland on the ample estate sees not gained personally but you know the car work will lose his job or her job and that's what i find a bit sick a bit ill making about what's going on at the moment in terms of course original vandalism for at least the idea of parliament so they couldn't do anything about. the deadline or for halloween for break but it seems to have brought the opposition parties to go how do you rate the truck shows declaration of this tuesday as a side in the opposition getting their act together i think it's significant because there has been considerable focus over what the various opponents of no deal disagree about and there are many things they disagree about but they agree by

definition that they want to stop no deal parliament. failed by the government to your to keep the opposition parties guessing all of these seriously considering driving through. parliament not even setting the mere fact that the at the greatest crisis peacetime crisis in british politics since world war 2 mr johnson is entertaining the idea of getting rid of parliament is quite staggering amazing and it's it's a great deal of the client nature of the british press that they aren't worried about this we live i don't need to remind you or mr richards in a representative democracy parliamentary democracy mr johnson is current proposing to abolish that it staggers me that the telegraph newspaper which used to

stand up to what britain stands for the times newspaper. go along with this idea that we certainly move ourselves on to an elected dictatorship they wouldn't maximize that mean remember rory stewart through your famously and conserve the leadership campaign said that he'd be marching of parliament with the speaker in the veyron given the speaker burkas views can you just maximise the opposition by undertaking a maneuver such as that i like to think the owner of ball is such as mr stewart the s. and a i think it's been excellent on this show has jeremy colbert who's been absolutely clear about that and joe swinson who seems to be waking up after a long period of negligence are concerned about that kind of issue but if things stay virtuous i mean this thing pass straight us.

maneuver a bit of a cunning trick doesn't mean he mustn't i really we mustn't think how clever they are we mustn't go into that song. because we can only guess at those we could look at the actual. decency and of the honor of the way people are behaving well as let's take it this way when we had the opposition last week facing a very difficult to even who might be a caretaker prime minister for a fuller period of time and space are the same or not that were not that one this week we saw the opposition to dispell opposite and coming together in the shop chose the one thing that got them absolutely united is the offer of parliament being suspended or what would be the government's interest in actually doing something that would maximize the opposition it would be an act of such provocation as peter suggests while it is hazardous to predict what's going to happen next on

any from in this drama it would bring the conservative rebels together they've stated absolutely but although they have doubts on a vote of confidence they are utterly opposed for the reasons peter suggests to the arbitrary. of parliament and it would be also i mean when the the main bright cakes was that this westminster parliament was meant to be so pretty against a somewhat mythologized view of the european union to then abolish that very parliament to get through brics it i think will be a not too far but when you say can these disparate people unite around their opposition to that without hesitation yes all the debates are about the mechanisms how do you stop a government from doing such a thing how do you stop a government determined to go out with a no deal with that's what happens. but are they theoretically united to stop the

progress of parliament and to stop no deal yes and i think the sense of that will intensify over the coming weeks rather than the opposite the that they can. agreed on a vote of confidence they don't agree with the leader of the opposition jeremy should become prime minister but they do agree on these other matters they will find a way i think to make absolutely clear if that does. if the opposition move to control the agenda again to pass legislation to delay the . deadline once again wouldn't be. i think. i think you might be entitled. to do exactly that i think the logic of this situation where you have

a minority. parliament which. we are in a parliamentary democracy nobody could object. to the. point if there is indeed election perhaps even one before. what might be the. political discussion many of these political decisions being made by. a looming recession and the impact that would have on domestic politics.

when there's a real body. they. should have an extra. to put them down i don't want that for any case i may as well and nation need of that little to get out of yeah the little room he could feel that he had a chicken bad. day he made a move of one of the last young enough i don't know before had on the.

things. meat a day or 2. she stressed to make sure that the british and the people of the internet that must to . stop the show was telling you she didn't taste the taste to she's a cia bush question. which she def yeah i'm not watching. the list each teacher or woman in there for sure. what sort

of issue of the future might your bonus for should be. it's a mistake so it's a good i'm still with them to spirit over this issue to be what you believe it is to teach the student actually the person the person has to be vocal or should stop them spinning. expressed should. welcome back you've joined us again in victoria where would the scuffing the prospects of a manly election to be the robot steve jobs steve is that likely given the circumstances of the opposition parties are managing to to seize the parliamentary agenda to prevent. that in itself would provoke and there. it might one of the problems when you start going down any of these routes is you see all the political explosions that my too wrapped around and there is

a very big problem about calling an election before britain has left the european union i think from the conservative point of view the bracks it policy would stand. we've heard nigel farage this week say johnson is not to be trusted and that's his one risk more generally elections in british politics rarely turn out as the color of fast election expects. but the rim any other problems so while it seems to me this parliament is paralyzed and can't reach any agreement on anything i still see problems with that early election before october 31st if it was happening if britain were to crash out jorun an election campaign the problem there is no deal would have happened there is quite

a likely prospect of chaos from day one so i see big problems with an early election but i fully accept that this westminster parliament cannot pass virtually anything domestic legislation as well as the bracks it related stuff so you can see the argument for it but i can see big arguments against i'm afraid that's all i can say at this moment it's very hard to predict solely election would have substantial risks but unlike his predecessor to lose or me who called an election for reasons which seemed very curious when you had a majority in parliament and perhaps paid a price for that but was just on the these circumstances would be calling election having been beat in the house of commons of the parliament seizing control of the great when we have the ideal platform to say as parliament against the people i think that's what they are considering which is that the people voted for. 3 years ago parliament has been. backed by brussels they wouldn't just say it was

parliament against the people it would be parliament and brussels to collaborate on the very ugly phrase deliberately used use recently by the prime minister himself about collaboration to scum juror up those people who got along well with the axis powers in world war 2 it's a very it's a part of the debasement of public discourse and i. i think that's what he would try and do and i think you would then gets several things that happen one is that there would be a mutiny inside the conservative party i think quite a lot of tory m.p.'s including potentially to raise that may but certainly i think philip hammond i.e. the former prime minister chancellor but lots of others. is another one would actually not stand in the conservative interest and so you get a split in the conservative party you would also give a split in the labor there's

a number of labor m.p.'s the others in the northeast who feel that bracks it should take place on a reflecting the views of that constituency you get both parties splitting it would be quite co chaotic and i think that the i'm once again what you have here is mr jones is quite is very very the term in well advised and very well financed he's got the big donors the hedge fund hedge fund managers the international trash capital are behind johnson and and that make means a lot in an archon campaign they can buy the advertising they can do the facebook stuff and against that you've got a divided divide your labor party but the theory which some prominent journalist yourself people have been putting forward about the connection between the politics of blair. and the possibility perhaps even the probability of a serious world economic recession that most people talk about blacks as provoking

economic dislocation. when you would want to have an election rather governed by your expectations on the economy i definitely think that we live in a very dangerous moment in world history. we've always had recessions they come along every so often we have one in 9090 we have one in 2008 and it's part of the not the way that your former economists you know how capitalism works it needs recessions you cut down dead trees and but what i think is very frightening about the current situation is the sheer levels of debt which almost every country in the world barring germany has assembled and the very low that very low interest rates because when he what you have normally in a recession is that the central bankers and the international treasuries they get together they produce interest rates and they print molly splurge spending to in

order to adjust keynesian economics and that isn't available to us interest rates rock bottom and day is an astronomical level i think i'm right in saying that something like the level of debt in the world is 3 times as much as the global national puts and other words they haven't got any far you have it's like you can't fight a recession because all you've got is pop guns so boris johnson be what he's thinking about this late at night i believe the most haunted by his predecessor to these of me who called unless the election the last a majority only been a member who didn't take advantage of a honeymoon period when he seemed to have an opportunity to dodge to the pools or be the most influential press to both both and he will be thinking of both the theresa may want is a real warning but opinion polls can guide people towards their 2 she never

recovered from calling a selection at the beginning she was 20 points ahead of the gordon brown one as a warning on 2 fronts 1st of all if you allow election speculation to get out of hand you lose all control he could call one and lose it. he could not call one and look pathetic and weak so he's got to decide very quickly either to kill off the speculation unequivocally or call what both have risks obviously if he were to win it it will be a trial course but none of us including him can know that as he contemplates these moves late at night and peter overton you've been very critical of many aspects of the politics of germany carbon the labor party leader but he did show in the last general election as he campaigner he exceeded people's expectations many times over do you think jeremy corbin in the election framework could pull that off again or

or do you think when it comes to taking on bulls will jeremy says lost his mortal. i think that mr gore right mr coburn was an amazing eve eve he showed us all fools made us all fools years good on the campaign trail there is something they look at jeremy lin the people do when they think compare him to. kevin behrens or mrs may he was amazing how would corbin match up to boris at the moment boris is very new he hasn't mean properly he produces this kind of carries more and glamour and he might be a little bit powerful or gates corben i think that's what mr johnson's and advisors will be telling him so spirituals with a number of permutations for the parliamentary action a number of ways we could get to know actually be not. deadline is looming

no you're on the spot we've said what might happen what's going to happen well look none of us know as we've said many many times but i think if it looks as if the u.k. is heading for no deal there will be an attempt for parliament to seize control of the executive and that attempt will succeed. and the speaker will facilitate it and the majority will vote for it and then there will be legislation instructing the prime ministers to negotiate a 6 month extension and that too will get a majority in the house of commons if it looks as if no deal does the only other route what happens after that i cannot begin to speculate in other words will the government declare that they are going to ignore it. as some constitutional experts suggest break the law or will they win some legal battle that suggests that they have legal parata to i don't know about that but that i think is what will happen

if it looks as if the 31st britain is about to leave with no deal and peter the last time you were sitting in those green speculating you forecasters certainly would be the biggest state constitutional battle so is the english civil war are you holding to that and what's going to happen. yeah i do what i do hope the most momentous moment is quite frightening i any sensible person should be kept to wake at night you know one thing i'll add to. steve richards who is very knowledgeable. he didn't take into europe i mean europe might just say i'm actually we're fed up with you and they were in except they would give us an extension that we needed to do that mr macro might just say well look actually this is going on long enough and off you go i think that's quite a real possibility and the other one is and i think it's the most likely. despite everything is that mr johnson is a very intelligent man he understands europe quite well he's going he wants

a deal and so my prediction is we're going to get a version of mrs may's deal from mr jobs and he did so much to destroy a huge number apparently some possible outcomes over the next few months one thing's for sure there's going to be playing to re-impose and plenty to the commentator on both thank you so much peter roebuck and steve richard for your insights thank you. the only political sefton to know is uncertainty and the only absolute is confusion as we have heard from a top commentators this don't feel that the opposition parties of the parliamentary firepower to knock over the johnson administration in a vote of confidence but it is likely they have the votes to derail a no deal blacks it means well the government likely has the votes to see off a no confidence motion but less likely to be able to sustain the european brinkmanship against a hostile and suspicious house of commons thus the brazen move this week to put all

parliament before the new session of the queen's speech a medic tobel dramatically reducing the time available for parliament to act against the government. that's the prime minister hopes to simple tailless they ratchet up the pressure on his opponents in the house of commons to put up or shut up and on other europeans to give him a deal he can actually sell this is a politically combustible situation which will not be contained for long nor is it likely to wait for hollande weeden the new mum this year the fireworks will be before halloween not afterwards in 2017 theresa may called a shock election and lost the parliamentary majority she claimed all the other political parties were the saboteurs of blacksad in 2019 her successor has no parliamentary majority and describes other parties as the collaborators with the rest of europe johnson claims to have no plans to call an election because every

say in a big and fool campaign mode the opposition don't of the numbers to force an election for a vote of confidence however they can still seize control of the parliamentary agenda and attempt to block a new deal blacksad and which case they will they possibly end up for the election anyway but this time one called by the government a present the prime minister would go into such an election of an opinion poll lead but absolutely nothing can be taken as read in this political autumn. someone prone to courting her oh it lay in some half remembered classroom poetry but us johnson may consider himself as the a racialists holding the bridge but he may end up resembling some way in some casablanca the ones about the boy on the burning deck. next week we'll take a closer look at the galloping economic storm close with professor david blanchflower the sole voice of the bank of england monetary policy committee who warned of the great recession of 10 years ago he describes the last decade us the

slowest economic recovery since the so see bubble and warns of much tougher economic times to come and tell them to me and all of the surest goodbye. officer. told them to get up off the ground began to down.

themselves on the sounds of. the grown man mislead essentially. pushed it away from the officer. they obviously did they kind of lunge for the web in one smith's and then when it happened down she swung at the observations didn't hit him i never saw any contact between the 2 any kind went back to where they were so the answer is back here there try again 15 feet apart at this point and that's when the officer saw his gun in the tree. we are in a depression in america populations all over america there's poverty and more than half the population lives below the poverty line so they're already has a bit of a ghost depression going on which has developed into a full blown depression because i'm not either policies work from the central bank

so maybe the problem is the subtle. but. just sort of the morning in the headlines then britain's brick city juiced democratic. prime minister and shots. to deliver on the referendum result big story will tell you.