consumer spending despite headlines i go back and forth calling for progress has become ever more clear now that the trend is towards escalation not to deescalation in addition to increased duties on american exports china has now lodged an official complaint against the us at the w t o saying that the latest actions by elated at the consensus reached by leaders in osaka this lawsuit is now the 3rd that beijing has brought to challenge the. the us says that they are penalizing china for theft of intellectual property that is not covered by the rules although many trade experts say that any tariff above the allowed maximum must be justified at the w t o under the washington now has 60 days to try to settle this dispute then china could ask the w t o to rule a process that would take several years this move however is largely symbolic as trying to pull the us out of the so there is no way to actually force the us to do

anything even if china wins this case but this lawsuit was primarily intended to send a message rather than to force an outcome it is that china values multi-lateralism and defending the international trading order even as trump is pursuing unilateralism the latest clash has rewritten the rules of trade in ways that have no historical precedent and are driving the world's 2 largest economies further apart trump a new shouldn't have expressed confidence that another meeting will take place later this month but china has yet to offer an official confirmation. and now to break down the latest effects of the ongoing trade war we bring jeffrey tucker of the american institute for economic research and top horowitz chief strategist at trading. let's start with you jeffrey this latest round of tariffs is a big deal as now more than 2 thirds of consumer goods in the u.s. imports come from china now face higher taxes as businesses pull back on invest.

spending and exports slowdown american shopper so far has been the one bright spot for the u.s. economy and now that last growth segment is now at risk so are we going to get any relief before the end of the year or is this just going to accelerate our risk for session. look i've been predicting for 3 years it's going to get worse and get worse and get worse and i think wall street has been kind of in denial because they don't believe that we're really going to turn our backs as a country global trading relationships which cause to 60 percent of global g.d.p. . to decouple or otherwise impose tariffs is a disaster for the u.s. economy but look this is what trump promised. 3 and 4 years ago so it was obvious it was coming it's just i think it surprise or but i think he's had the power to act basically on his own according to his own ideological convictions to do this it's a very bad thing for the american as america as a nation and american consumers are paying the price contrary to what trump is

claiming that somehow. china is paying these tariffs is absolutely not true this is being 100 percent paid by americans american consumers american businesses and you know it's very interesting distinct from past rounds of protectionism in american history the american producer merchant class does not support these things as you noted everybody is begging from the fisheries to the farmers to. energy to retailers please stop this terror for but nobody can seem to do anything about it because trump has all the power. and meanwhile u.s. factory activity in or contraction territory for the 1st time since february 26th seen but looking over the equities market we are still not that much off of all time highs it looks like there is still optimism that the u.s. will weather the storm with help from the fed do you think that's enough. i will i don't think it's and i do think that we are in the very early stages of a recession i think that again one of the you're the conflicting things you have

here is that the world is searching for yield and places to put their money so right now the u.s. is still the best market is still the best bond market is still the only place you can get some real. but generally i think we're seeing a slowdown and i think it has nothing to do with the trade wars in china i believe that the trade with china the importers we're importing are not being penalize because their one hit your all time low against the dollar today so we're buying with better dollars but the end of the day you've got to be slowing down and again i think that is showing in the numbers but that doesn't change the fact that there is still money looking for a home and that home is the stock market or the u.s. bond market which is why we're seeing such a massive bond bubble on top of a stock market that doesn't want to go down yet so back in march of 2018 trump famously tweeted trade wars are good and easy to win but now most recently in france he had expressed regrets over starting the trade war in the 1st place as

businesses and consumers become more fearful and are holding off on spending so every single recession have had their poster child we blame the 2007 on the subprime mortgages and the 2000 on the dot com bubble so will trump be the poster child for this one as he said that where i'm currently are already in the early innings of it. i don't think so and i think that was more of a play by trump you know the typical way that he does business and the go she was as like well we're giving you a chance to come back to the table i think he has no no regrets and i think he has no intentions of doing anything until she listens china stock markets down 10 percent so they continue to fade and no matter what the numbers they report they have a hell of a lot more problems than we have and i think that we will eventually wear them down and i think we could step on a little bit further in the meantime the the the markets are going to melt down on their own and i think the biggest culprit here would be the federal reserve and not because they didn't lower rates because again they don't let the markets tell them

what they're supposed to free market should decide interest rates not the federal reserve and the free markets are saying right now with the bonds exploding the other side with the yield curve inverting that rate should be lower and they should just be lower based on the free market system and prices not on whether or not a drone ball gets out of bed on the wrong side one day i mean that's the real problem here is that they are not letting the free markets work and that's the end of the day problem and jeffrey back to this lawsuit against the u.s. at the. what about the u.s. sort of legal strategy here china seems to be showing by using this existing institution that they're willing to play by the rules willing to play ball while the u.s. is blocking approval of any new judges to the body's appellate division that could sort of sort out this mess in an accepted international forum so is the u.s. doing some long term damage to their standing just generally. of course and i think

your comment is right about china i mean it's mostly china has conducted itself and is negotiations with rationality and decorum at some point even explaining how supply and demand works to trump himself which is something roddick for the communist party official to have to explain to trump how. supply and demand work seen as back when he was claiming that china was driving down its currency it wasn't the markets that were doing that but look here's the key thing about the w t o the great failing or i should say just thing about the w. toes there's never been an unforced mechanism ever the thing works by consensus of nations that's how us got into it i realize fundamentally on the goodwill of all signers to the document trump has absolutely 0 regard for the deputy oh he doesn't think it should exist he actually is doubtful about world trade has made that clear about that from the beginning he's really trying to drive us back

and his off handed cop with a comment about decoupling i think he was actually serious about it so he doesn't care about the wu i mean it's shocking is that just doesn't care so the w t o could rule and there's the remote put it out it could take 2 years i don't think trump gives a flying flip about it it's not even on his radar screen at this point geoffrey tucker and todd horowitz thank you both for and i but stick around because we have some more starting to like to get your takes on later in the shell. and saudi aramco is looking for a new chairman to replace current energy minister co-leader of folly as a company works toward going public in what is used as the world's biggest initial public offering folly was in charge of the i.p.o. but has been blamed recently for the oil giant's delay in going public. the governor of the public investment fund will be taking the reins according to a tweet from foley's official twitter account follow he will remain the head of the

saudi energy ministry despite leaving his post with a ram co last week it was reported that the state run oil company is planning a split i.p.o. expecting the 1st half of the $100000000000.00 offering in saudi arabia this year and the other half likely taking place in tokyo in 2020 or 2021. time now for a quick break here because. argentina has slapped the reigns on the capital as the country's economy has been spiraling for weeks. on an alabama elevated standing by to break down the details of the future of the in the argentine economy. the greatest talent on the downslope in the wake of a major move in baghdad negotiations we welcome back our our panel to break down for us. and as we go to break here are the numbers.

but i believe casey pugh it was an important accomplishment of the problem see i need. to talk about its demise but unfortunately the europeans have not been able to put their money where their mouth is they have been stating. ports for d.j. c.p.o. way but they have not been prepared to take good risks to invest in order to maintain a great achievement of the compass. ever

since the arrival of boris johnson to 10 downing street there's a growing sense of inevitability that briggs it will be executed on october 31st with or without a deal i mean we get to this point what lessons have been learned and. said she stressed to make sure that the british and the bill of voted out in. south asia was so here she then taste a tasty dish she's a c.e.o. which quite a lot. to which she never happened and now look what you've seen in the investments dittrich are moving in there for sure and. want to go to the show through my it's your bonus for should be. good for mr hazlewood support of

ours to put them to spirit over 4 years they seem to be arguable that it's a studio actually of course in the personal growth of the broker or should stop them spinning. expressed. well you know that they were kind of adopted because we were called pirates for so long. of being there in the small boat sniffed at a hard pull of ships and it's standing. up in. the limo self to be told fish already 90 percent of it are not and it won't be connor. pre-concert 15 scoops 75 tons and they do it several times a day with the big fleets and no you get an idea on why ocean.

we have to understand we can not stay still and just. be within this the deal before you go. i'm doing this because i want the for the future world to the future can generations to have and enjoy the ocean we have. this is a stick from the water bottle found in the stomach of the fish the brand is sponsor of the coca-cola company which sells millions of bottles of soda every day the idea was that let's tell consumers there are the bad ones there the litter bugs are throwing this away industry should be blamed for all this waste the company has promised to reuse the plastic.

special projects funded. on. the mountains of ways only grow higher. welcome back the pound sterling stabilized from a fall earlier today after u.k. prime minister boris johnson's government lost their one vote majority in the house of commons that latest plot twist came courtesy of conservative m.p. philip lee who crossed the floor to defect to the liberal democrat party which has seized on opposition to brags that as an issue as

a labor party wrestled with what looked like a no win political scenario mr lee's defection actually halted the pound slide which was already in progress after prime minister boris johnson threatened to call a snap general election in response to the introduction by piece of legislation that would force the prime minister to request a delay in bragg's it until january 31st of 2020 pound dipped just. below $1.20 before recovering in the afternoon eventually closing above its opening price mr johnson later took a hard line on the am on the no deal briggs a bill saying that conservative m.p.'s who voted for the forced bugs at the way request would be disallowed to his party candidates in any slap snap election as we prepared to go to air the commons was debating the move to proceed toward consideration of the bar on a no deal brags that the conservative leader of the house of commons jason jacob riis mog is warning m.p.'s that if the bill passes on tuesday they will narrow the real options to dropping opposition to the irish border backstop severe delays of

drugs or a fall out revocation of the article 50 notice. argentina's leader has flip flopped asking the country's central bank to impose capital controls which he once staunchly opposed president murray say on the creator's administration is likely in its final days maybe a move in hopes of pulling the country's economy out of its downward spiral with my . hell of it in toronto so alex president mcrae has opted for a policy that he was fought against in the past so why the drastic measures now. well if you look at the pesos drop by 35 percent in the month of august that is kind of astonishing a massive plummet and of course what people do when things like that happen the nation's people went to greener pastures and when i say greener pastures i'm talking about the greenback the dollar as well as other currencies so they start trading in their pesos getting rid of their national currency and of course that contributes to the downward spiral well let's take

a look at this graphic kind of gives a good idea of what exactly is going on here now we're looking at the depletion of foreign currency reserves it was celebrated last week when argentina said that it might try to defer payments of its knots of debt of $101.00 or $100.00 plus $1000000000.00 if you see this graphic you can see this plunge taking place last friday the peso or i should say the reserve plunged by $2000000000.00 we saw another plunge of a $1000000000.00 just yesterday on monday so you know this is something that is not turning around for them too well and that's why these emergency measures came into place we know we've talked about this before with president one of the main issues was that there was a preliminary poll of the beginning of august that sort of got this ball rolling his party most likely will not win the next election which is happening this august over and with that the country is just basically in this state of instability of course for investors that's

a big bell ringing to them and saying you know what there are issues going on here so obviously people are taking a step back and seeing how this country's going to be moving forward especially when they don't know if they're actually going to be paying off their debts or not and we know that since 2003 times argentinian argentina has defaulted so this could happen again and alex on the scene president machree in doing this is trying to taking these measures that he's previously denounced as trying to halt the slide of the peso but in doing. that what specifically has he renounced previously that he's doing now what are the specific measures. by which capital will be controlled and going in or out of argentina we say we're now it's kind of a mild we're word for him when he came into power he got rid of these type of measures right away he was somebody who was saying there's no way we could do this and now he's doing it here's another graphic for you gives you a little bit of a breakdown of exactly argentina's capital controls exporters must treat earnings

within $5.00 to $15.00 days businesses will need permission to repatriate profits abroad or buy dollars and residents and they are going to be restricted to buying $10000.00 a month in foreign currency but when you look at that that's only about 2 percent of the population that would do that it's a significant chunk of money for people that be obvious and less money there in argentina the measures are made basically to ease this burden that's happening this selloff of the peso and trying to slow all of this down this has worked these kinds of measures have worked with countries like china greece and iceland but as i mentioned before for argentina they've seen bumpy roads in the past and it might happen the same way again nobody has too much confidence in this article respond to alcohol that's thank you so much thank you. and joining us once again today just the day's biggest business stories are todd horwitz above the trading and jeffrey tucker of the american institute for economic research and on

bragg's jeffrey i just ask you you have opined on twitter you said with regard to bragg's you said it's not complicated leave the e.u. and have free trade with the world 0 tariffs non open the country to all investment from the planet earth get rich and so is prime minister boris johnson's best economic option in this mess to just proceed you know as he is full speed ahead toward brics and on a very 1st deal or no deal. it's not complicated at what i mean it's not complicated he can. it is complicated politically but the thing is that people misunderstand boris johnson they just lump them in with the typical nationalists like trump and the rest of these guys actually as far as i can tell he's an actual free trader like his not that he's not that stupid right he believes that if britain is going to go completely alone this can be evermore dependent on free trade so his best option is a no deal brax it and unilateral free trade with the world and just put out

a full court press with all of europe and canada and china and japan and and and just go full on no tariffs 2 foreign investment and britain could actually reclaim its mantle as the leading free trade nation in the world and that's actually the way to save the stock market save the currency and save the country from an isolationist disaster so i i think he might actually have this in mind and it's the best it's the best hope going forward and if that happens it means that the no deal bracks that would have been the right course from the very beginning. and you know we got an opinion on this what about. well i mean look i think good they should definitely do as yank and go and run away and get out of there because again 1st of all the it was a failure from the day they put it together i mean that whole single currency the whole deal was a bad deal to start with you can see it by what's happening with the currency the currency continues to fall and has no there's really no bottom to it and again i

would expect it to go back under par to the u.s. dollar surely you're i guess it's a problem when you continue to let central banks control an economy because central banks are generally clueless they know how to read a book but they do not i know how to put into true commonsense what really works in a real economy and of course that comes back to the simple as basics of all which is price discovery and free markets a lot of trade let it work and of all these other guy would get bad fact we'd be in a heck of a lot better. spot i mean some existed running europe in $6094.00 so if they would just get rid of the central bank exist m and pull out of bricks and go back out their own they'd be a heck of a lot better than they are now. todd on the commodity front copper seems to be cooling off and this model is now around a 7 year low down 14 percent from this year's highs in april so you know copper is taking quite a lot of it of a bellwether for the general economic activity for is their idea of use and for the

global economy given the sensitivity of the price to chinese demand so where does it go from here and what does the price of copper tell us about the markets and the future of china's economy. well i think some of his is probably headed lower yet i mean again we're having some economic issues globally we know that the rest of the world is stored in a recession so the next of the next ball will be the united states to go into recession but i mean one of the big interesting things you have to understand about copper as well is that in china they can use copper is a form of collateral to borrow money off of and of course they're all trying to brawl lots of money so that also helps forestalling the price of copper so not only are we close lowing but you've got a mess of moms being used as collateral against banks are going to bank loans and that's going to create a bigger problem i mean again there's obviously a bottom somewhere and it will show up because we know the markets never announce themselves but for now it looks like copper goes lower the economy slows and there

looks like a lot of trouble before we start to turn the corner go back the other way right and back to you jeffrey you have a new post up today regarding some of these sort of undetected consequences of the trade conflict between the u.s. and china especially in light of mr trump specific realized promises of results from this fight what it quickly some are what are some of those perverse outcomes that you pointed out on twitter look i mean this is a deep historical analysis i did you know going back to 9930. 1816 that you know 180081 of the big problems of this kind of radical protectionist measures which we've rejected since world war 2 by the way you know we've seen nothing but lowered lower tariffs ever since the creation of the gat this is an unprecedented least in the post-war period attempt to adopt a new kind of mercantile ism you look back in history you know it's depression it's war and that's when it gets really really bad i hope we're not going that way but

look this is look we live in a different world from for example smoot hawley in 1930 you know global trade was a very low percentage of global g.d.p. at that time in 2004 the world economy passed the point at which the the value of imports and exports was over 50 percent of global g.d.p. starting 2000 for now we're closer to 60 percent so this is globalism on unprejudiced store a cli unprecedented scale so you don't want to mess with you don't want to go in there like some sort of rationalistic guide to impose some. early 19th century order it's actually extremely dangerous to supply chains the downstream effects could be actually very devastating i think if we escape this this bout of mercantilist trade policy we're going to be very lucky and i sleep disagree with your previous guest that this is not a big deal i think it's actually a huge deal and i don't think anybody knows for sure just how dangerous this could

be actually it is always fascinating to listen to both of you and now today to get you both side by side want to do this again jeffrey tucker and todd her with thanks so much for your time it's a pleasure. that there by this time you think had on you back on 5. the next time. i. ready ready ready ready i

am sure to stop that for continuing to grow. i just never know very good about the idea of bringing children into the world because i didn't feel like things were in very good shape that life was just going to be a lot of software programs. there's no reason in the more world to take things that are to me the there's no reason to make something else that need to get loads of everybody's scared to talk about it certifiable is really dependent on us addressing this issue and if we can even talk about it if we can't even have a conversation of that it then. we're in trouble. ready

thinks. week. during the great depression. mr remember there was a family were killed. there wasn't it was bit you know much worse objective listen today but there was an expectation that things were going to get better. there was a real sense of hopefulness there isn't today today's america was shaped by the turn principles of concentration of wealth and power. reduced democracy attacks. engineer elections manufacture consent and other principle holds

according to no on. one set of rules for the rich opposite. that's what happens when you put her into the arms of a narrow sector of will switch which is dedicated to increasing power for chills just as you'd expect one of the most influential intellectuals of our time speaks about the modern civilization of america. and. *

i. thought it could stop the terrorists since the colonies i mean the eyes have it the british government suffers a crushing defeat in parliament as lawmakers vote to prevent a no deal brags that prime minister boris johnson is now. calling for an early election. as u.s. news website claims russia has been meddling in america for 100 years we take a closer look at. a region of jews and muslims.