destructions would also be a good reason not to go ahead with scottish independence and see and as both interview suggested the world is headed towards recession anyways i never think that this is to break that advantage other than disadvantage and finally from sheila who says the main goal is to make a few people very rich see the transition. the level and what's next after globalization is a book written by former princeton academic michael sullivan and told us an analysis of the transition and world economics finance and power as either globalization ends i guess we have 2 new partner centers and institutions the author charles alex why we all need to be ready for this change. michael sullivan this new book the leveling you say that the end of the globalization evil inevitable how can that be when we've got the great global companies bestriding the planet are not the biggest manifestation of globalization what's happening to these

everyday work we are reminded of the fracturing of the globalized world we have a trade war going on there is a democratic dispute going on in hong kong those big tech and commercial titans are being regulated in europe they're being closed out of the chinese market and they're also vulnerable i think in the states too to the slowing economic cycle so everywhere we look globalization is beginning to petero trade as percentage of g.d.p. is falling the flow of ideas the flow of people is slowing and what i think is happening is maybe not a rerun of the 1000 twenty's thirty's as some scaremongers say but we're entering into a multi-polar world where instead of having you know everything bundled and tied together you have 3 big regions the u.s. china central asia and then europe or the european union so to defy the globalization is globalization in your view the freedom of movement people goods

that the great increase in world trade it was the the the knocking down of the combination of currencies of these and utilize the manifestations of that global world they are exactly what defined globalization as interdependence. and interconnectedness of factors be it ideas be a trade be it finance and if you measure all of these they're becoming less global less interconnected and more regional the internet has a good example europe doesn't have its own internet companies but it is regulating the internet china has closed off its internet if you've got a g. mail account you go to china you can't use that and in the states there is this big debate around the tech giants. are they too close to government are they creating inequality what are they going to do with people's data so the world is fracturing in these respects only overstating this a bit despite the kick back against globalization the trade war between american

child but president trump is not going to last forever i thought he would like to. some of that ease up as the various personalities pushing the economic nationalism leave the state you know i think one of the reasons he has been successful is that there are large constituencies of people in the us who support what he is doing they don't support i think the way in which in the style in which he's doing it big american companies are they feel aggrieved about the way they've they've been dealt with in china and i think also growth in the world is slowing many of the imbalances at the same time are getting bigger world debt to g.d.p. know is as high as it was in the 2nd world war and then before that the napoleonic wars so the imbalances associated with globalization are growing and then the many countries have failed to used globalization to their benefit and in those countries globalization is blamed but actually in fact it's the choice of policies in those countries that produce things like inequality which is which is agreed just in some

countries the highest ever you mentioned big american companies really believe that they can't get to the chinese market was not a large section of the american population and felt aggrieved because their share of wealth has been diminishing and is not a factor in this discontent which is replicated through manifestations like bricks in the u.k. i think so so one of the things you can trace is that there's a whole range of countries most of them are older developed economies where for maybe 60 percent of population the real increase in income has not risen in the last 10 years and that creates i think a situation where people change their expectations and as a. result of that they want to maybe break the system as people say and then they adopt a much more aggressive kind of political out shoes not probably one of the things that's given as briggs as one of the things that's given us trump political volatility and in italy and other countries as well some emerging markets are

suffering the same but is that the case for for all countries because it wasn't been some general claims that rise in the populous right across europe trump a number of complex in the u.k. but have some countries been insulated or even immune to these trades and i wouldn't say there is there are countries that are immune to them but countries that have adopted we passed we've talked about in the context of scotland other small developed countries be it switzerland or sweden who are very exposed to world trade they're very open economically but they have low levels of inequality because they've they've been alert to the the risks and the changes in the world economy they've put in place measures be it social welfare systems that buffer the effect of of these changes and then they are also to the forefront of policy making singapore has a minister for the future denmark has just to put in place the minister for technology for silicon valley smaller countries who are maybe more vulnerable are also more more alert so what would be the best prescription for

a country looking at the modification at least but up to say the end of globalization how we can be successful in the world will be the canvas of being able to do virtually everything you pleased internationally is beginning to to to be painted i think one of these countries will have to be more aware of is regionalization and this is problematic for braggs of because in this part of the world the big region is going to be the e.u. and the e.u. is is very strong in certain respects trade for example so in this part of the world the e.u.'s rules and regulations will will carry. and i think being a mid-size country offshore of the e.u. will be. it would be difficult to follow i think also also at the same time there would be certain industries that will thrive media finance particularly i can see trade and hard goods becoming more regional and things like intellectual

property will be more and more for over internationally so that's a warning for the blades the 2 of them in if you take mr johnson as. a rebellious backbencher after he was for he criticized for these are moves deal was saying it would leave the u.k. in a client state relationship but your argument seems to be that relationship of people who are not in the big trading bloc is inevitable economically whatever the the political manifestation of the deal yeah i think i think you describe him as a rebel he's now in the seat of power and you can't rebel against detail you can rebel against the hard fact that he doesn't have a coherent plan b. in place and also i think what is coming down the road is britain needs to find a new economic model if you look at productivity in the u.k. it's a multi decade many multi multi century level so this is very important debate up meaning is when productivity is a lot of it's like

a very low. organic economic growth in a country where the population is moving not growing very quickly that is the real driver of the quality of your economy in the speed of economic growth and that's been low for lots of reasons lack of investment a whole of hollowing out of the labor market by the economy so they're bubbling under brakes that there are all these really crucial structural issues that need to be debated that business want need want to debate and that live beyond the end of the end of october where mike we've had a stellar career in the international business economists but obviously you are an irishman how ireland. cope. circumstance is going to be difficult but there is the resilience within the irish economy to to win through i think is i would say it's a winner from briggs it because the economic risks are very large but it's

a winner i think in terms of the performance of irish diplomacy i think the they've done very very well. it's a country where people are more preoccupied by brigs that so i think people have been quite alert and in general have prepared and ireland is making a firm decision to be part of europe now so i think arden would be more involved in what's happened in the in the e.u. . and i think would be developing its industries on the way it looks at the world along those lines the political consequences for the other celtic nations for scotland i as you know soon as briggs it happened in my mind history was detonated and i think we will see scottish independence coming in the next 510 years whenever it needs to to come and in the government in scotland currently needs to begin to prepare the ground for the institutionally in terms of expertise and to give the sense that this is a country that can be independently governed in a very capable way so what your essential message from the not just of the scottish

government but for governments around the world how do we prepare for this new reality and what is the essential ingredients for success in the world beyond globalisation so what the levelling is all about is kind of the bookend of globalisation on what what comes next. and what i'm trying to say is don't be lazy in assuming that globalisation will continue we will go through a fallow period of 5 or 10 years internationally while the next world order begins to evolve and there's lots of hardness there indebtedness is one i've mentioned the remaking of politics we've never seen in europe in the world the destruction in creation of so many politike. parties and i think coming out of this you see a new kind of political contract the democratic party debate in the us is a very very good example of where that's going and then in the wider european context for me the future is with the with the e.u.

michael sullivan the new reality of the world beyond blitz that alex salmond quick note i don't have to tell and i wish with what to do but i have to warn about one thing this doesn't work unless scott's another thought i have a i have a bottle of middleton somewhere so thanks very much. michael thank you so. after the break alex interviews professor carlos bush about how countries large and small have adapted to these global with even. pain years and crossed i started as 10 years i think it's time to shake things up maybe change the branding maybe the format here is what i've been thinking about next season related episodes filmed on an island 10 experts fight it out for a profit what do you think ok a more affordable option $25.00 tax for. one red rose another

suggestion political jeopardy parody no political cookout where we will literally wrote the elites. late night show it's a rare format piece days and it's all you need is an old microphone in a printed banner but. i guess i can do this campbell after politics gone wild like music. ok crosstalk is not about hype it's about meaning 10 years of talk and still going strong. peter if you want to change something why don't we get rid of the bow tie you know that is too much. think that's the nub form for syrian conflict mediation never has spoken with one voice but recently

disagreement between russia turkey and iran has become so stark could not even the leaders try to hide it as the program run its course or is the friction really a sign that it's working. welcome back michael sullivan sees an age of globalization coming to an end however professor collis bush ickes that many of the smaller car to have adapted better than their larger neighbors to the social pressures that it's reached alex it is professor bush from princeton university. and i'm delighted to be joined by professor karla's bosch of princeton university colors welcome to the exam and sure thank you can you tell me commerce europe interpretation of the world economic environment at the present moment do you see starting close gathering for another major recession we can certainly see that things are not going well so industrial

output is down in germany in france in the u.s. there is all this concern about trade so there seems to be a recession now coming to the words us about i'm not sure about you know how big it may be and in terms of the the fire powar available to central banks and to governments it's not a problem that we're relatively low interest rates prevailing across the western world and high levels of indebtedness in most countries that there's a lack of things in the locker to combat a looming recession that seems the to be the case right so interest rates are now negative governments have a lot of debt as a result of fighting the great recession of the late 2000 to 2000 tents so there is not that much left to them in terms of hope political parties can react under difficult economic circumstances in your experience you've done

a great deal of work in this does that make it more difficult for political parties to pursue a program of the quality for example in a tough economic environment or this is exactly the time we should be bringing forward such policies well you know i think that there are 2 things here one is in the short run and the other one is in the long run so in the short run i think that all of them are in a way. tied by the resources that they half available to them and we are talking about you know monetary policy and fiscal policy. i think that to me what is the more most concerning is the long run to what extent things are changing as a result of mostly well 2 things right one is technological transformations automation dramatisation and extent to which these may affect mostly people that half lowest skilled that's one concern the other one is globalization there seem to

be 2 kinds of responses developing as we speak one is a response that wants to cut back on globalization and protect some economic sectors or some social classes that feel that they are not doing as well as they should they should especially in comparison with others within the same country right so they feel somehow this is unfair and so many of them are betting on these programs that are about in a way. of reducing immigration are imposing tyree that's one possible or one way i see and then there is the other one which is perhaps and i see that more of a consensus about that in the small countries which is embracing globalization but kind of foreseeing some mechanisms to either make sure that people can compete and can adjust to these transformations or compensating those that suffer

from those transformations right so in the past meaning the past the sixty's and the seventy's or the eighty's it was all about free market versus intervention or you know socialism versus conservatism and this has progressively changed to protectionism bassoons social democratic globe but globalization package so these 2 examples you've given professor bush would this be illustrated by breaks at the move to blame in the large country of the u.k. and the move. the independence of autonomy in catalonia your home country it was a large economy a large country struggling with the ideas of how do you take control and the other a small of country embracing globalization and trying to find a part with it it would these be practical examples of these 2 trends you're speaking about they could be although i thought did we're going to compare britain

and scotland you know it's closer to to you i i think that scotland and britain or england are are these 2 you know they are going somehow in different direction you're actually solving what some people seem to regard as a part of the looks of why people should seek independence for scotland how simple tailless lee supporting is being passed of the the european union the trend if outlined does illustrate that and makes it compatible as opposed to a paradox i think it does i think also that the european union was a place that made it easier for our decentralization and giving sovereignty back to smaller units it is true though that the european union in the last 2 years house these other side which is not just about a big confederation that is competent on big issues and then the units within are

sort of semi sovereign now i see the european union also with the temptation of being just a union off a state that used the power of the european union to in a way control or squash these. a spear ations for more political sovereignty or autonomy of the derrick constituent regions so there is that there is a struggle in europe too about what europe mints. so my final question professor bush is this should political parties except that many of the things that engaged in are actually a result of international economic trends or those are still the ability for the political party to come up with for a program and any country is small or large which will actually achieve the objectives let's say for income equality it will fit in global economic environment

how much does the global dictate the political ethics and how much freedom of maneuver complicit is still for it i think that we think globalization there are many things that can be done maybe they are not about short term policies are you know the policies that are related to the central banks or even to deficits but things that are about good infrastructures human capital so if you cation about transparent non-corrupt administrations all these things are fundamental when you look for example europe are small countries are countries that are are stable. people are they in fact in terms of happiness indexes they are they high devaluation of government is in this world of mistrust you know we have seen a lot of mistrust or lack of confidence or lack of trust on politicians going up in

many countries but in a small countries not all of them but the many of them are the relationship between governments and the governed is very good this indicates to us that you can have both things it's not just about let me say about political parties although you may be right it's about these deal that happens within parties across parties with citizens it's a is a set of good behavior say. that should allow these 2 things globalization and openness and well for our well distribute it that can happen right somehow a small countries do it does better than the countries thank you very much indeed professor karmas bosch of princeton university a pleasure always as the fog of breaks it has descended upon united kingdom politics it's difficult to the serve in the shape of the short term future never

mind detect long term trends politics has become erratic personality driven almost surreal the prime minister controversially peron's parliament and then gets turned over to the scottish courts for acting unlawfully by misleading her majesty the queen as to his motivations in getting rid of it temporarily of an inconvenient and toggle in parliament will the u.k. supreme court write to the prime minister's rescued by overruling the scottish supreme court over the side that well the court should not tell the government the hoa to do its political job they should at least ensure that part of the still around to do its democratic judy and every normal measure of politics a tory party had been left in complete disarray by this new and reckless prime minister one of his rivals for the tory leadership election of just a few weeks ago has been tough though the party for yet another has jumped ship to the liberal democrats with the last conservative prime minister to actually win an

election david cameron has a vest of 80 johnson for his treachery during the euro referendum while the election were before that subject on major is turning up in person to sue him in the courts but as johnson has time to be a parliamentary majority into a minority of over 40 a split his party has been battered from pillar to post heckled at all 4 countries of the united kingdom and even in luxembourg further he still maintains a lead in the opinion polls. there has been how about a shift in prime ministerial emphasis almost lost in the general hubbub just a couple of weeks ago he was boasting about being ready for bret's do or die as he laid the ground for a snap election now he's trying to resuscitate to these i'm a once despised blacks it deal with a little face saving modification of the irish backstop most worryingly for the prime minister the seems a normal simple route to an early general election at least not one time of his own choosing to some this never straight down in the u.k.

body politic seems all the more extraordinary and slow while a war looms again in the middle east and the claim that shames imperative rules on an answer by global collective action have appears at least possible that the blacks at buddha is in itself part of a world economic trend testing the strength of the political culture across the liberal democracies professor david blanchflower reckons that the western countries of created the political crisis by cold eating a painfully slow to cover me from the great recession of more than a decade ago george cattlemen professor richard murphy believe that the government is underestimating the practical impact of a new deal blacksad and the new political programs acquired matters right today professor bosch and michael sullivan discuss the endgame of globalization and why small countries have generally adjusted better to its tensions and strains the shared analysis of all of guests in the cities is that the political careers as

a result of economic pressure not vice versa and then you economic order will need a maps to fill the vacuum only then can politics return to a new normal to misquote england's barbed there's an economy which ships are lens rough few of them we will. next week return to the top political commentators to tell us what's going to happen next in the black melodrama as the clock moves steadily on to the high noon of hollow we have made a pretty good stab at it so far but can they see through the fog to the blacks that didn't know until then can pass them you know the shoe is good bye for now.

make this manufactured conservative instead of public wealth. when the right wing closes and protect themselves. when the financial merry go round lifts only the one percent told. to ignore middle of the room signals. to leave the room for the more you leave room for. politicians to. put themselves on the line they get accepted or rejected. so when you want to be president. or some want to. have to write the book for

us this is what the 43 of them or can't be. interested in the waters of the house. there should. thousands of american men and women choose to serve in the country's military and the decision lives every song came to a complete. the day that i was raped to be instructed you know told to shut up or they'd kill me and i see how it destroyed my life any screamed at me and he made me come in and you graham my arm and he raped me with his birthing curia if you take into account that women don't report because of the extreme retaliation it's probably somewhere near about half a 1000000 women have now been sexually assaulted in the us military is a very very traumatizing have happened but i've never seen trauma like i've seen

from women who are veterans who have suffered military sexual trauma. poaching rape is more likely to get the victim punished don't be offended i had an almost 10 year career which i was very invested in and i gave that up to report a sex offender who was not even put to justice or put on the registry this is simply an issue of tower and violence male sexual predators for the large part of target whoever is there to prey upon whether that's men or women.

the u.s. we produce cool things and ginger my street. is a traditional indian ice cream it's spicy. stuff or pulls he has been manufacturing kosher ice cream for 15 years the chief rabbinate of russia supervises every batch of kosher products their experts check the ingredients are kosher as they arrive at the plant and monitor the manufacturing process. there is no joy milk and ice cream in usenets a woman convinced it's true priest sense and she's drawn substance.

thanks saudi arabia points the finger at iran over last week's drone missile strike on its own refinery citing the sophistication and the rection of the attack is evidence tehran is the black. global security body and supposed says at least a dozen suspected terrorist event to do europe by crossing the mediterranean. also a new report reveals thousands of children in nigeria. well being held in dire conditions without trial over there are alleged association with terrorists we've spoken to one of the authors of the report. he describes simply only overcrowded cells with $250.00 or $300.00 detainees packed into a cell that was 10 meters high total biggers.