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hello and welcome to crossfire were all things considered i'm peter lavelle 70 years ago this week china started down the path of communist rule over the past few decades china has emerged or rather reemerged as a leading world power rivaling the us the communist party can rightfully claim a string of stunning successes but challenges remain what's next for china's extraordinary revolution. cross talking china's revolution at 70 i'm joined by my guest fred tang in new york he is president of the american china public affairs institute in hong kong we have andrew wilson he is an international and independent china strategist and in knoxville we process their issue she is c.e.o.

of china rising capital forecast a research technology company all right in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate sarah let me go to you 1st in knoxville the 7 do they enter verse 3 of the. communist china the the advent of establishment of the communist state of china is a remarkable event it out the soviet union only lasted $69.00 and now china is at 70 and there's so much to talk about there are so many successes and there are so many challenges if you're the average person in china if there is such a thing what are they thinking on this day go ahead sir. i think that people are generally interested in celebrating this day and certainly an exciting time it's a major anniversary and i think people are generally happy with their living circus . dances they're wealthier than they've ever been it's definitely something that in 1949 people could not have imagined would be the case and i think generally there

is this celebrate tory feel like in the air ok for fred to this kind of the same question because what do they what is the communist chinese light leadership what are they most proud of 70 years on go ahead fred. well i think that china in the last 70 years 3 stages the 1st is the 1st 30 years is a lot of challenges. and then we have a 10 year period they tried to open up to the west and they didn't find their work so that really is the last 30 years that they have livy the 3600000000 people are the problem tedious to working on the science the technology the infrastructure every way education for the people like services. the people are very very proud and this is the time for them to look back and see how far they have come charlie just but also looking back make you realize where you are think that's that's what's going on in china you know andrew but it's only been in the

last couple of years that china is seen as a threat a growing threat a challenge to the international order and in western media is particularly very unkind to china remarkably so there's a lot of people to talk about china they don't know much about it i have a panel that know a lot of about it and have a much more nuanced view of china the world is the world celebrating all along with the chinese 70 years on go ahead andrew. well you're going to trace back history a little right back to tiananmen square and of course the whole world. all the rose up against a comet is china which is all the terror in suppressing this people and so on so forth but i don't read the bill and there came nixon and also henry kissinger and there came a period honeymoon period where 5 united states won the china on their side so as

to thought otherwise all russia. and so that there came a honeymoon period in the silent china with a ship and then also for the little bit china was more into the night with theo the world trade organization because it was felt other by brain china in 'd philadelphia theo it could be the it was all the all the cheap products of production that we all sorts that china and then all the that. of the cheap products the benefit of the american consumer goods and also the hope that china would be more like the west now to see more would become more liberal and then even more than credit. but then of the so many years this hope was was lost i mean that the the that this this up newitz of the fact that time is a lot like the united states by any means and not ringback only is is is is a mockery they are saying that he shares the nike shoes anymore it's lollop trying

to eat americans lunch in 5 g. technology and so on so forth and and so the fear that there is a rising power with a different regime with valueless at all it's with those in in in the west you know sort of the east into a rat race all the china threat and then this translates into 'd the 160 degrees pushback against china across the aisle in. well senator i mean it wasn't really naive because i thought it was naive is that we'll get them in the w t o and they'll become good jeffersonian democrats which is ridiculous here why should china change its culture for the dominant power the united states ok it worked within the it's an unbelievable success stories on so many different fronts again there are a lot of challenges and a lot of challenges are facing them now because of their success i would say year but it was naive that they were going to become like the west why should chinese

become westerners that's a question that is not often asked in washington go ahead sir. well china is sort of the case that proves all of the other cases wrong that is that a commies that are rowing have to be democratic china went against the grain for that and i think that the west lost hope to some extent that china would change its authoritarian regime after tenements where happened in 1909 i think for the entry that westerners believe that china would open up its economy fast which it has in terms of trade but it's been far less less quick in terms of financial liberalization and i think that you know that's something that a lot of westerners are disappointed and there is have seemed to come to terms with china's status as a communist nation up until the recent administration trumpet ministration in the us. some bad feelings also in europe due to trade differences

but it wasn't until recently that the west started to call out china and view them as being somewhat in the wrong yeah i mean fred it was it's interesting to me that it's only been in the last year or so that if you look at the mainstream media the for a decade it decade to have it was china china is rising china is developing its expanding . look at the success of the chinese but it was only when the last year or now the communist regime of china is a threat to the united states i mean they've actually kind of changed the rhetoric here because they're looking for well of course china is a threat to the western order because it doesn't want to play by its rules i don't see why china should you need to negotiate you need to deal with each other in good faith that's how you're going to move forward here but it's our way or the highway and that doesn't go down well the country that is successful is china fred. well i

think that that's true and however it didn't start really from this trump administration i think in global elite there is a nationalism and this lot of dissatisfaction with their own government you know using china as a scapegoat it's one way that this administration is doing i think if you're looking at in terms of the we're order or human the definition of democracy i think that all nations should have a role in terms of defining this right now the current way of even defining democracy is by a very few countries who are the victors of the 2nd world war but they're not including china or russia into that discussion and that definition is set however that might not be. in the right for everybody a suitable for everybody you know when he was talking about in terms of the the other nations i do think that china is respected by a lot of countries except the few western nations i think that's very good sandra i

mean if you make a comparison of the just in this century in the 21st century all of the money the western countries particularly the united states leading the way washing incenses all the trillions of dollars wasted on foreign wars but the chinese have spent all their money on infrastructure not only in their country but across the world it's not exporting its model it's economic model or political model it's certainly not spreading democracy is that the chinese might understand it i mean and i think that's a lot of the anx that people get from about the chinese because the chinese still and i says a criticism of my own still cannae say below the radar and there are you know they're building factories here bridges there are all kinds of things around the world and they just keep moving on and the west everyone's well wakes up in the middle of night and says oh my goodness what are they doing they're trying to conquer the world well they're they're expanding world trade bringing tens of

millions hundreds of millions of people out of poverty i can tell you in the part of the world that i live in the you're asian land mass chinese development is welcomed ok it creates prosperity go ahead andy. well 1st of all you can look at the experience during the cold war for example i think either way both china and russia and the us as all are in those days were trying to explore the common ideology around the world and the west saw ringback that as a con of. communism it's why the overtake them i think it's a cause more of the cold war yeah the cold war yeah but then they know this is no longer out there are some of the damage in the sense that. there's a whole new set of this track where why is it being superpower it was it's so active by rising superpower or the claim it is allah and they

and their special is such a superpower a rising superpower comes from a different ideological system and this one and the high ranking us a was a white house it was a lady who said openly they said well this is coming from a more caucasian culture so it's always a class of 0 as asians you know so and if you have that these 2 forces 'd tunnel well with this law it will happen before. it's going to sara last 20 seconds in this park go ahead sara real quick. yeah i actually would contest the idea that china's. china's idiology can just perpetuate itself and i think that the economy has run up against limitations in terms of like the government's intervention in the economy and so i think that china will come up to its own barriers in terms of its idiology politically if that will prevent it from growing further economically it's

a very good point i will want to return to that we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on china's revolution 70 years on the state with art.

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and very well might continue watching on since last. in 2040 you know bloody revolution to the demonstrations going from being relatively peaceful political protests to be increasingly violent revolution is always spontaneous or is it you still hear. me in the. school and you go to the former ukrainian president recalls the events of 2040. those who took part in this today over 5000000000 dollars to assist ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic. welcome

across the uk where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing china's revolution. ok let's go back to sara in knoxville before we went to the break so you said some something really fascinating to me about what that what kind of barriers that china is going to face i guess in the next 70 years of its revolution expand on some of those points and some of those problems go ahead sir. right so there are limitations to market forces in china and we see this in the stock market we see this all throughout the financial sector where there is sort of a ceiling on the level of profits that people can make simply because there's a lot of government involvement if anything goes bad the government gets involved if there's a bubble the government could intervene and in addition to that a lot of the companies that are listed on the chinese stock market are affiliated

with the chinese government and so they're not growing as fast a lot of academic studies have shown that a lot of state owned beggs state owned enterprises have fewer market forces than private enterprises china's private sector is still relatively small and even though it's continuing to grow so i think that in the next maybe even 10 years china is going to face a barriers to further growth simply because it needs more competition and it needs more market forces it needs to be able to generate innovation without fear of potential crackdown to reprisal on some of the riskier ideas and so it could be really problematic you know if it's can do with that theme fred you know the the the communist party of china in it i would argue with a lot of its legitimacy because of so much success over the last few decades pulling so many people out of poverty i mean it is and andrew pointed out early in

the program you know they just don't make a deed as shoes and t. shirts anymore they make some really remarkable high tech things here what do you think the chinese government is going to do to facing that challenge because i think sarah related out really well go ahead friend i kind of disagree with several because i think if most of them were alive today you would not recognize that i was part of today neither would i even though he was the one who was open the reform policy he would have seen so far that the countries have come so far with his policy. i don't think he was imagine the success has achieved so in terms of the communist party or the chinese government does not change that's wrong if we look at every 10 years they have made dramatic changes and making those changes at the same time creating stability within the society and moving ahead so i will see that there will food to be opening up. without creating chaos without creating a bubble in the in the stock market and with the i would actually disaster as

a financial design of the 3 with ok sarah jump in that's the one of the program that's the point of the program go ahead yeah i would i would disagree with that i mean. the government's has limitations and in order to stay in power the chinese government has to has turned control over the economy and we see that despite market opening up the government has remained in control of state owned enterprises has really focused on them in the past few years in terms of our fore and it's something that is innately connected with a communist government i don't think that china will be able to get out of that and allow market forces to entirely prevail i think it's going to remain a problem ok let me go to andrew i mean you know i don't think maybe all surprised all of you but i don't worship the markets ok because the markets do get skewed ok and i am really glad that there are controls there to a point ok to a point i think i would agree with sarah that sometimes government regulations and

controls can make an economy brittle and not be able to expand in the way it should ok nonetheless andrew there's nothing that succeeds like success and so you know when i look at the last major trade agreement that the u.s. and the chinese were working on and then it suddenly collapsed because essentially united states wants to dictate the terms and conditions of reforms in some sectors of the chinese economy if we're talking about china here not panama no offense to panama but i mean china is a power to. we reckon with why should the united states or any other power be dictating the internal structures of the financial sector. other sectors of the economy what why should china be dictated to when it can say no go ahead andrew. well i like to follow up on the reference the nothing succeeds like success because that's exactly what the comedy spot is trying to do is kids on reinvent reinventing itself so when they come in

a spot in our days it's not the same as the governing body at the time of chairman mao in terms of the attitude towards black or the prize the at the do it was the market and so on so all and i i agree with the notion that saving enterprise is going to remain for a long long time this is part of the column this ideology out there faith that in in fact the state base of very important role in driving by the enterprise approach songful there is a we all the. the visible hand of the state is even in the well this is like the united states where think about the success of the invention of the internet for example with all state intervention in the in the military research and this may not have happened or at least what happens on boss he will even look at now. a country so farms they're almost there and about state owned

appliances you know some of the big biggest event banks up i'll say so i think that they don't have to buy saw them on plea of communism. but i think the challenges ahead i like to refer to a lot of big i mention the fact that china's or suspected or the remarkable achievements of all this in fact if you look at the period it's not 70 years because china only open up in life in something online so yes in 40 years this company changed but then but then. all the time it's respected sunny's law like why a lot of countries even research in. africa where china's investments . you know the better this is the last time this makes close the. honest. is saw. you know what the soul is all

institutions confidence. and. some sort of a check and balance of the sort of. 'd institutions the regulate. the market puts on hold and all that up the market. and also being the visible head of the state so. this is. what it has to be the right mix ok i'm going to come half way with you on that has to be done right and that is good and that is very very new once you know the 1st stages of china opening up and developing its economy that's like primitive accumulation that it's not hard to do is long as you give it the conditions but when it becomes more and more intensive than that i do worry about government regulation let me let me go back to sarah and sarah during the last 40 years that need to just mention there china really surged upward and there wasn't

a whole lot of attention there wasn't this sense that it was a rival that's a relatively new idea right now how is that going to change the dynamic of how the communist party rules and how is it going to change that and make about how the economy grows because it's an it's an export oriented economy it's the factory of the world it's an amazing phenomenon but that's being tested right now through cities trap was already mentioned on this program and it's it is it's invoked a lot recently for good reason because the u.s. is watching go ahead sir. yeah i think that china has been increasingly defensive particularly with the trump administration because it's you know the trump administration is saying look at made in china 2025 you know you guys are having like a government funded move towards high technology that could undermine our own interest and so china is being increasingly defensive and really trying not to call out

other players on the world stage but just trying to justify its own existence i think it's going to have to do more than that going forward in terms of economics i would say that china also finds itself in defensive mode particularly with us at this point. you know it's because it's some of its firms are high tech firms it's something that the government is very much behind and these high tech firms are finding themselves in the crosshairs of u.s. economic policy such as huawei and you know so this is going to be problematic for china it's going to have to figure out how to negotiate this without looking like it's going to dominate the world and i know that a lot of people are very nervous about one belts one road view it as a war. military or can i see even though it doesn't necessarily have the capacity for that and let me answer your questions and you brought it up to use your words does china want to read the world do you really believe that. no i don't i don't

think so either you know people view the west is increasingly viewing china sites yeah but i mean let me go to fred but you know i mean you know andrew brought it up again again he brought it up 1st before i did i when i look at how the western media treats china there is an implicit racism in there all of the time and it's really extraordinary from these liberal media outlets but they do sound racist because a non caucasian non western power is challenging the current paradigm and i don't see any reason why the chinese are going to look backwards because they have a whole lot to look forward to is the west tears itself up over ridiculous ideological things but i don't want to go into it because i get sick and tired of hearing about it but china has every reason to look forward last minute goes to fred. yes i totally agree with you it's a lot of racism going on not only against china but also against chinese americans in the united states people always think that while rocking these chinese people

how can they do so well they must be stealing this is not true early on you have talked about china being exploit country which is also changing right now china is g.d.p. 80 percent is the mass to 20 percent is export the united states account for 30 percent of the 20 percent so it's a total of 6 percent of china's total g.d.p. how to relate it to get that the states they're working with the rest of the world and they're moving ahead i just want to one more point about state owned enterprises still enterprises what we call the dragon head industries every country needs industries for it to sustain itself you know i used the word for it dragon industry call. when united states bricked up big companies like that they were breaking up its own infrastructure to date in the. go amazon facebook if we break up those industries we will have another dynamic

changes in the united states for the better i i think fred is ending the program with to share a win and i agree with him to a large degree many thanks to my guests the new york konkani and in knoxville and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t.c. you next time remember crossed the rules. because they copied is so good that even the city. i'm not. here to find that.

to feed. the clicks and move. is the depiction of what is happening say. that is a good thing that when i got off the mini it's a. long long long neck. and a one person and later knee what did gandhi the new normal gandhi. peace prize ignore you then go to mock you join you.

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