made at least 3 deals with the americans which required substantial commitments from ankara only to see the americans change their minds later on do you think there is any trust last between these 2 nominal nato allies well i think the president of the gun is in a very difficult position and awkward position in fact why because he's dealing with 2 different americas america. which in fact we all know that he gave him some hala greenlight in order to go inside syria and then he has he has had to change his mind many many times actually because he's coming under pressure from both inside his. administration and also from his allies in the region and we have another america which is that establishment the foreign policy establishment including the state department have been going on also you have the congress who are very much against and you as well from from syria and against the british and against the see the democratic forces that establishment in america believes that

the united states actually by betraying. actually is giving a very bad message to its allies in the region and this is something not but what i mean a couple us i mean don't forget the united states if it withdraws from syria it will not be party to this conflict anymore it will not have any leverage and the syrian conflict and some actually also see that russia is winning in this case because america is actually pulling out so that something of the gun is actually dealing with 2 different americas this is actually what makes his position very very difficult and this is what mixed actually the thrust also with the united states is very low now as we are recording this program on friday afternoon and there are already news coming in that at least in one like this suppose that cease fire has been breached and that there are there are direct military confrontation between the turkish military and some of the kurdish groups speech at least me to my next question as part of the deal struck last thursday the kurdish. why b.g.

have to withdraw to at least 30 kilometers from the turkish border i think americans really in the position to even promise lot alone deliver on that given that the kurds have already struck a deal with the syrian government this is a very good question why binion why because right now the kurds actually they don't have on the one hand and trust in the americans who have already betrayed them this is what they think and on the other hand i believe the leverage of the united states over the kurds since they abandoned them is becoming actually smaller and smaller with time and i wish and now we have russia we have the syrian regime actually have strengthened their position even further because of the of this u.s. policy towards the cause and now actually and my opinion the kurds would be better relying more on russia on the syrian regime in order to confront turkey even if they because we all know actually even if they withdraw the 32 kilometers i

think this will not solve the problem why because turkey's will always see and see a democratic process as a threat to national security because they see it as very much the antithesis of the turkish. security interests and security foreign policy so i think here russia and the syrian regime will be playing maybe very important role in this whole equation between turkey united states and the kurds now these 32 kilometer deep strads is conventionally referred to as a save zone but i think it's now abundantly clear that it's not a save zone for civilians asked some may have naively assumed but it's supposed to be and it was from the very beginning intended as a save zone for turkey and it's just interests can turkey be safe without this agreement being explicitly endorsed by the syrians and by the russians and what are the chances. of that happening no in fact i don't see that the key will be saved

without some sort of coordination. between uncut arm or school and maybe also on damascus and this is something that i shan't are trying to work out we all know that president putin and the russian government has already expressed their readiness to. between turkey and syria an order to revive the accord with the other an accord in fact of 1998 which actually. did its security on the borders between the 2 countries between the 2 that will governments so i think i think one point and this is something i believe 30 is not actually rejecting outright right now because i believe turkey sees merely the syria democratic process as a threatening to its national security so turkey wouldn't be. if the syrian regime . come very close to controlling the borders because we have seen but as the end of the gun the action to the accession of the syrian regime forces to members for

example don't line them on a program but so i don't see turkey actually rejecting the idea of maybe that the syrian regime can make a comeback and control part of the board does that what they really want is actually to push the cause on to the region that is the only the main concern of turkey at this at this point you just mentioned the syrian army moving ever closer . is only 17 kilometers away from the turkish border and i'm sure these push to regain the territory on the part of the syrian military will continue regardless of any agreement between the turks and the americans it looks like damascus is actually the main badasses sherie of this agreement are absolutely absolutely i think damascus moscow of the biggest beneficiary of this of this agreement i mean there were the books because the actually of that took a. military operation in the 1st place look i think russia the syrian regime turkey

and iran these 4 parties actually were mainly interested in getting the americans out they see the united states presence military presence in syria as a major threat to their their interests so i think all they were not actually i mean i think russia we're not really very much against the turkish military operation in the north again against the kurds because as i said i mean the main objective here is having the americans out says that that operation started actually have seen actually both russia and the syrian regime moving. forward in order to recover most of the territories that. are out of their control and the east of the your fleet is this part of syria is very in much important to the syrian regime because because most of the oil and gas of syria actually is look at ing and this is located in this in this part of the of the country and the syrian regime in damascus cannot actually survive without having backed the oil and gas

fields well mr kaplan he just mentioned that everybody the russians the iranians the turks obviously the syrians one day americans out and the soft x. is usually that you know everybody wants to take the americans days but from the point of view all syrian reckon struction and syrian suture doesn't it actually make sense to have the americans out because as you mentioned they used to occupy about one 3rd of syria the most amply endowed part of syria doesn't syrian need to be able to rise from the ashes we though without international help. it's really important for the syrian regime to come of these territories as i said before because of the oil gaz water out of most of syria natural resources are located in this part of syria but that will not be enough in my opinion for the construction of the country and still the city region will be needing external.

distance from maybe the gulf and other parties so i think and this is why you hear russia is trying actually to broker a political solution for the syrian conflict we all we all know that. and russia iran as well. as atlanta. have already agreed in uncle summit last month on the establishment of the constitutional committee in order to have a new constitution for syria and live that way for but as the elections in 2021 if the russians actually manage to do that i think they will be have. most probably did they have succeeded actually in achieving most of their objectives in syria but in order to do that the actions believe that the 1st step should be that america must must be out of syria that is really important for russia because they cannot actually control the whole syrian issue without actually the americans are out for the iranians they are very concerned about the american presence in the east of the if it is because it cuts. the land corridor between you know iraq syria and to

lebanon for turkey and the presence of the united states in the region is also threatening because america is supporting the syrian democratic forces and supporting what the turks believe. separatists. scheme of the syria democratic process so if anyone actually wants the american out in order to move on with their agenda but that on i think we will be seeing we start seeing contradictions between the these different agendas the moment the americans are out i think these different parties will start to have a problem between them well but there with all due respect i think these parties have been having problems for the last couple of years and they have also been pretty successful in managing these contradictions i know that you wrote before that the american president really dislikes the old days. and did the sort of the political initiatives that it puts forward with when you. look at his latest

actions they pull out of the american forces and how handsomely it's place into both russian and syrian hands. it seems that he's really aiding the asked in the process do you think the chances of a political political solution within the ass in that framework a bigger or smaller now that the turks and the americans have to deal well as i said before you have 2 americas here doesn't come back she doesn't get about syria he doesn't care about political solution in syria and he doesn't get actually about who takes what in syria and the many times he said syria is is just sand and death and i'm not interested it is no much there isn't really interest money interest money u.s. interest in well now oil fields well it's not significant i mean syria's only reserve is not really big it's not significant so the americans even when you talk about the gulf but i didn't actually said it many times let's do what's actually who are in need for the oil and the gods of the of the bijan god let them come and both take their supplies i mean he said it many times so what about syria which has

much less oil and does it is a have done than the gulf this man is mainly interested about his reelection campaign in the united states he's mainly concerned about his rivals inside the united states more than more than he cares about russia and about iran or about the syrian the syrian conflict so this is something that is really important that the drug understand on the other hand when we talk about the as a done up process i totally agree that the americans seem they have already lost i think in syria and what sense and the sense that the no longer controls the political process and see the longer important factor in this conflict the moment they leave the moment they leave they will not be able to have any leverage over the. that the parties inside syria over the political process is will go mainly to the as a process to the thrower of the as a ton of process in russia as we said before russia iran and turkey well mr campbell and we have to take a very short break now but even. back in just

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welcome back to worlds apartment maran capital and the director of policy analysis at the arab center for research and policy studies mr campbell and while the turks and the americans according to mr trump of the best buddies again just a few days ago political analysts were seriously discussing. a potentiality of for a direct confrontation between in the americans especially after that great task the latter by mr trump was leaked to the media what do you make of this a rather. unique piece of diploma. attic correspondence and i mean the mr

trump asking mr the not to be a fool and restrain his military well i mean this is a president problem it is there is nothing unusual about him we have seen him actually using less diplomatic language and with i mean with many heads of state you know i mean his exchange with with the leader of north korea. more than a year ago we have also i you know i mean his exchange so with other leaders like canada like. they were so this is a this is a president club actually and more or less we got used to him but on the other hand we have seen the president of the gun is showing. exceptional blackmouth ism by accepting the you is deal clearly he doesn't want to get in any sort of direct confrontation with the united states he believes that he needs to take this deal and see how that deal is going to be implemented on the ground before making any

further. you're leading me to my next question perfectly we had dealings he here with pretty big egos both present on and president trump a very sensitive to being seen as a strong leader is an. alpha male as yet none of that prevented that deal even though we know from media reports that president though and reportedly threw a trump's letter into the being does it mean that despite all their egos and despite all their temper is the 2 leaders have fallen * the way all fs nav edging each other efficiently and getting what they want rather than. you know acting on emotions you know i agree and only enough actually president of the gun president from. a scene by many people actually many observers of the crew was as close friends we have seen their body language their interaction and you living. g.

20 summit and jump on for example last summer and we also know that there is some sort of chemistry actually between the 2 men and i think sometimes they tend to ignore some of that because because they're to actually speak to their domestic audience i think this is why they understand each other really good. president of the gun is saying as you said to to present himself as a strong leader inside turkey and brazil and she would like to do the same especially now. 2020 elections are approaching and he's having tremendous challenges back home so i think yes the 2 men out of able to deal with it with each other despite this exchange which both might not like sometimes that president arizona slated to visit the united states and of embrace teams i believe and obviously a lot made change both on the ground and politically in the next few weeks but. how big the scene is the incentive on both sides to man that relationship not only

personally but also in situationally. tromp need to carry the on as much as aired on its trump absolutely i believe so and don't forget that i think the 2 leaders are leading somehow on a very individualistic way their foreign policy president actually doesn't care about or the is jewish and that are working around him this is why we have seen him actually contradicting the advice of his close close advisors and we also have seen but wasn't on the gun taking a very individualistic authoritarian sort of. ruling and turkey so i think the 2 men somehow have similarities between them and over the boss actually couple of years they have managed their relationship very very well don't forget that actually took the. 100 missiles from russia. without being actually punished by the united states and that

is that is really significant that despite all the threats which have been made especially by the bin tugun at the end of that it was actually who decided not to go with with that which means actually that most notably he understand turkish needs mahendra stand turkish sensitivities and he's taking care of that so i think the 2 leaders will be able actually to manage their relationship in the coming in the coming months even if this ceasefire does not hold in and syria now i'm sure did the russians will be watching meeting very carefully in the middle east because they believe that in contrast to this american team cracker read they actually have a real deal to bring the syrian the war to a close do you think these political process that moscow how to launch within the. framework could be in any danger if their relationship it's been the united states

and improves a little bit well i think this is triangle russia america and the key is very interesting to watch actually both countries are somehow competing for for turkey turkey is a very important emerging regional power and the 2 countries i mean russia and the united states understand that very well they both actually want to when turkey this is the sometimes explain why president trump is very sensitive towards not until going to ising began or not under guys in turkey because it doesn't want actually to lose turkey turkey is the 2nd largest. army in near to a very important bottle for the west generally is the gate of the west towards the middle east they need to actually in the war against arsenal they need to actually in order to prevent refugees from coming from coming to europe so talk is very very important on the other hand president putin he really understand how important a key is for his for his project not only in syria but in the entire region and in his. conflict with

a lot this is so this is why he's very keen actually on trying to win out of the gun and actually even when he feels like the gun is swinging a little bit closer to the united states he tries to pull him back and he has been succeeding over the boss 3 years at least since the the thin military coup. in 2006 you mentioned president clinton and i heard you say a few years ago that russia and president putin personally have been using syria it's you quote get respect from the west and i'm not sure i agree with you here but in any case don't you think that instead of respect from the west which russia still hasn't gotten. it has managed to secure that respect from not on the west and isn't that actually far more valuable for russia look president putin. he lost he lost ukraine and 2014 in my opinion and ukraine in belarus you know better than i do was like the jewel for the what they were union which is which is

the most important. political economic project for most the reformist impotent and of course he tried to compensate for that by annexing crimea but then i think syria was that was was the was the cause that was the stage the platform which really president within you was very successful in order to put him back on the and to the national stage and make the americans make the west actually talk to him once once again now he has established himself as the bar the main power broker in syria i think he's building the strings right now in syria and he used syria as well in order to boost his position not only in inside syria but in the entire region now he's the friend of almost everybody now in the region unlike the united states which is somehow being less. have seen even by its own allies. that they cannot rely on the united states we have seen how they're not be so. that would the

see the democratic forces and we have seen actually what the but is than when he had a few was actually to retaliate against iran when iran actually. launched that attack on a few weeks a few weeks ago yet something that they rounded that i have to mention i mean the americans are saying iran is a sponsor most of the americans are saying iran is a sponsor one so they should have for the saudis and you tell yet again that iranian action whether we like with our we believe that iran is a sponsor or not that is a different issue but mr kaplan i think you have a very interesting point here and i want to ask you specifically about russia's policy because it's usually framed in terms of its battery ego russia not being treated as if things it should be treated but isn't the the kind of mode that russia is offering for solving the middle eastern problems indeed a little bit if not superior than perhaps sustainable. framework that the americans have been peddling for many decades i mean russia is trying to talk to

everybody tries to employ the policy of the least common denominator which means satisfying interest of all the size it's least minimally isn't that actually a good framework not only driven by russia's ego but actually be strategic i would even say global and humanistic considerations well i think interesting to hear president putin last month actually during the summit with the gun and when he said well that was a done a process could act as a model in order to solve the the many conflicts on and the region had he was opening that even and he was talking about yemen so i think yes i agree with you actually that russia is not only because entering the south or as a global as a global power in terms of its military strength and its political maneuvers but also trying to establish itself as beasts. mikko indonesian

and beyond and i think that is 111 must admit that what i would like it or not that president clinton was very successful was that i would. actually. establishing that he strong relationship with all the parties not fighting each other in the region so what i'm saying here actually is and terms of political maneuvers and terms of managing that a nation ship with dr was different rivals and the middle east but doesn't put in establishing himself. as a must in fact of this sort of. a policy well mr kevin nash hate to cut you short here and i would love to give you more space to actually criticize russian policy on other channels but we have to leave it there our time is up and i thank you very much for being with us today thank you thank you for i encourage our viewers to keep this conversation going in our social media pages and hope to syria again same

place same time here on worlds apart. the swarms of them so moving. and good your local was before. much of those who heard it's a preview are you ever see him we will. we will we're going to.

move. move. move show didn't look beautiful the mutants who looked good. more muslim also those goals were good you've gone for good good good. good good issue also look i do the same you want me to show it's good to me you should go. to startups to. get to meet until it was the middle of the mist they'd say look it is it's. your stash now understand just need the mashed old truck to stop the president and please introduce more students. as we have producers to toast listening to snoop to come up with a new a because those are the girls who would swear this approach to your machine station

should ensure you should cook door for the one who's doing business. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy to confront duration let it be an arms race is on all fronts very dramatic development only personally i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical of dying time to sit down and talk. feel.

the rest. of us spent over the. breaks it could be delayed again is that. an extension the pm doesn't. like kids in a lot you gotta let him fight. without a little tough love you know what that's right.