havel make them ever more dangerous. virus the pope's op anywhere in the world can be anywhere else in the world within 72 hours and is a domestic pub for travel within china not only that but it has $113.00 known stalk floods to 20 destinations worldwide so that is absolutely astonishing but 1st to your tweets and e-mails on our program on the future of the labor party we're on the rule over the candidates for the leadership election and this is what you had to see caton says well they're barking up the wrong she was lisa and andy as far as i'm concerned kenny says tory labor no difference james says well after emily's thornby hustings up by s.n.p. she was a plausible shadow pm but she showed her colors with a rant and apology done so just only seeing saudi after her rant was made public david says remember it's an english labor so called scottish labor is just

a branch of the english party they are told directly what to do and see finally jim says hi alex we all know labor is finished in scotland they stab the country in the back in 2014 they took their voters for granted. now at the beginning of the peloponnesian war in $430.00 b.c. the syrian general paid a cleese thought to keep his people safe and secure behind the walls of athens approved fitful decision as a pandemic probably of typhus or smallpox wiped out to half of the city's population of $300000.00 far more casualties than even the spartan army could have affected it is an indication that right human history disease has been the real enemy the 20th century saw the a pattern to victory of antibiotics or the highly infectious bacterial plagues but vital infections proved it tougher opponent only controllable through specific vaccines thus 100 years ago the flu pandemic killed up to 50000000 people worldwide

5 times the number of the millions who died and the body carnage of flanders field over the last generation the aids virus has killed millions before only recently being subject to sect of treatment at least and developed countries a century after spanish flu are we still at the mercy of another vital armageddon and how does the current new coronavirus fit into that pattern to understand the current threat we turn 1st to chris smith who runs the nic it's scientists podcast and there's a clinical for all that just at the university of cambridge. the world health organization this week a dental for the new buyers public number one in your estimation we know in the past before global pandemic or will this new virus but. sars before it. well this new corona virus appears to be more infectious than sars it spreads to

more people and in fact if you taught up how many new cases each infected person produces is somewhere between $3.00 and $4.00 and sars was somewhere around about one and a half to 2 so it's at least producing twice as many new cases of sars was so we know that theoretically it can spread quite quite fast and quite well we also know that no one has ever had this before which means the entire world population is potentially susceptible to it because the reason we can't catch things once we've had them before is because you become immune to them if you never have them you know immune to them so you can catch them so therefore what we've got here is a fairly infectious virus which spreads through via the air and that means it's very easy to spread and catch because it's very hard to see it you can't see when you're walking into a cloud of virus in the air and you breathe it in and the entire world is so i think there is a high likelihood that this is going to spread much farther afield than just the cases we're seeing in china and one of the reasons why we're only seeing cases in

china at the moment is that the data a lagging behind the reality because china actively going out searching for cases and testing for in any one with symptoms whereas for instance here in the u.k. we're testing for people who say they've been to the right geography one of 9 countries that have the virus to clear the circulating or passing between people there if we were to start looking on home soil tomorrow maybe we'd get a different picture than the one we currently have so are you saying dr smurf that in the u.k. there could be under the water like many merely examples of cases that haven't yet been detected i don't know what the scale of it is but yes certainly in the past we've talked about this being a possible clinical iceberg we know that there were millions of people leaving we were in city right up until they shut the airport for example going about their business many of them traveling internationally we know the virus is beyond the shores of china because one of. cases that we've had in the u.k. was someone who travelled to singapore and picked the virus up there it's perfectly

possible because this is a very infectious agent that people have encountered it on their travels overseas come back to the u.k. they've had relatively trivial symptoms which they've dismissed as a heavy cold or they haven't had any symptoms and they've passed it on to somebody else and it circulating i strongly suspect with agents like this that's going to be the case but without suggester and the associated factor worth of the doctor value which this new virus seems to have it also perhaps has a low impact on most people which is why it would be detected as yet. so you referred to the reproductive number or reproduction number are nought and this is that that magic number between 3 and 4 so for every case that you get you get 3 or 4 new ones so that there is a high possibility that a person could have this could infect 3 or 4 other people and could have no symptoms because the other magic number we have to concern ourselves with is one how many people have symptoms at the moment it's breaking down by about 80 percent

of people have trivial symptoms about 20 percent of people get more severe symptoms so given that the massive odds are in favor of having fairly trivial symptoms which are pretty much the same as most seasonal disorders like flu a heavy cold that kind of thing you might just think oh i've got a cold and in fact is this no the illness to source it above the virus has been named it called the 19 it does that mean we have no beyond that is where things of cold russian flu are spineless flu or are sweating flu or no viruses of government of the illnesses of god and scientific needs you know in the good old days for all of just being the unimaginative bunch that we are we used to name things after where they came from so west nile virus no points for guessing where that came from zico virus pretty much the same story this is a legacy of the 1940 s. 1950 s. and before congo crimean fever another example. ross river fever for example in australia so nowadays we've realised that in fact if you do that there's

a danger that 2 things could happen one is that people might feel they've been a bit stigmatized the people from norwalk for example are now dismissed as potentially entrenched carriers of norovirus which is not true it's everywhere around the world where you can't normally get norovirus but the other possibility is that people might if you just name something off to one geography they might dismiss the entity as only coming from that particular area and overlook it in the person so that's why we've kind of taken the line now that we name things in a slightly more informative way 19 is the name of the disease and what we're dubbing this one is sars called to after sars the severe acute respiratory syndrome and then call for corona virus and 2 because it's the mark 2 version of the infection it's very similar to sars but it's not cells previously put on a virus is well regarded as almost sort of done all of by this is not really to be taken much of a coat of as that no shavings were fur for sars and no this new outbreak what the

corona virus is are a big family of viruses and they infect lots of different animal species they infect birds for example they infect bats we know that because of sars and they infect humans they were here the $26.00 coronaviruses that we know infect humans they include sars and this middle eastern respect tree syndrome coronavirus mers cough which was discovered in about 2012 probably about virus but is since been discovered in camels and people who snuggle up and get close to camels can catch it but those 4 other coronaviruses are in regular circulation and we see them causing outbreaks infections in humans every single winter we used to test for them routinely in our hospital but when swine flu came along we decided to d. prioritize those and test for swine flu instead and we never put them back and kind of regret that a bit now so dr suppose you would estimate should live with took spy. ollie's fluids it was cold hard years of killing 50000000 people worldwide at one end of

the spectrum and swine flu would have just mentioned from 10 years ago killing perhaps 200000 people which sounds a lot but as less than the annual seasonal flu where would you put in that spectrum this new threat at the top and on the bottom and. this is a very difficult question but a very important one i guarantee that this is going to have a lot of big brains that the world health organization and in the government exercised at the moment because the big question is will we know that this is infectious we know that each case is is producing about 3 or 4 new cases we know that the entire world population is currently susceptible to it and we know it can stay there for spread quite quickly we also know that the mortality rate could be somewhere around one or 2 percent which is roughly on par with the $918.00 spanish flu so if you crunch all those numbers together what you've potentially got is something which while it's less lethal than sars is much more infectious than stars

and about as lethal as the 1918 flu pandemic and everyone susceptible to this like they were for the $918.00 spanish flu pandemic so if this were allowed to escape and go to its logical conclusion one possibility one worst case scenario is it could be as bad as $918.00. coming to the rescue or for a vaccine being developed on public health measures to contain the virus until that allows it to be properly treated as that not a possibility at the better end of the spectrum vaccines are terrific but they work best when you meet the potential threat head on in other words you've already got the vaccine there you've protected the population and when the threat comes it just has nowhere to go vaccines work much less well when you're playing catch up and in this situation we're very much playing catch up because this genie is already out of the bottle it's already spreading this virus around the world and so any vaccine that we come along with we've 1st of all. got to work out how to make the vaccine then make the vaccine then test the vaccine and prove that a it's safe b.

we're not going to make people ill and c we can actually prevent infection with it and then be we've got to get it into people and you've got to do all of that before the virus itself has naturally infected an appreciable number of people so that's a tall order whether or not we'll make it in time and make a vaccine that can do that difficult to say what i can say is that because of the threat posed by mers cough the middle eastern respect true syndrome virus which emerged in about 2012 because that's been an ongoing threat scientists have continued to pursue that for from a vaccine perspective and they have elaborated a recent vaccine which does appear to work that vaccine could be redeployed with some adjustment in the same technique and technology that was used to make the vaccine could be used against this present threat so i think it's not beyond the realms of possibility this could be done whether it can be done within the time to be a cost effective intervention i'm not sure i know the answer to that yet but let us

hope so dr smurf and thank you very much pleasure. alex though speaks to journalist and author mark clinics by to discuss the prospects of the survival of the human race and the battle with vital pandemics as humankind's oldest enemy about to turn their vengeance push different spin on a pandemic that will be off the appendix in chile was there has been a pandemic and break the world health organization the most simple definition of a pandemic that you'll find on the site is a worldwide 'd outbreak of a new disease so we've already got that it could be got multiple outbreaks so it's not a pandemic until it starts transmitting in a sustained way not just in china but in another geographical region so this 10 the name outbreaks of the countries of the russian flu if indeed 90 the spanish flu of 181919 the mother of all viruses is this

a 10 this is well to attach to the vine this to country supposedly a form of yeah i would say i think it's a natural journalistic tendency is kind of a shorthand doesn't it and we see that this time around with the corona virus of course everyone is very politically correct rightly so global health and it's very important not to stigmatize one place or country so a lot of brainstorming and trying to think up a better neighborhood hank rotavirus we now have this rather will will be. 19 so that the fish will name the point about that is a voice attaching it to particular place or country. joining us after the break for alex will turn from history to the present coronavirus and asks mark konigsberg whether the current death toll of over $1000.00 in china will become a truly global infection or whether it will burn itself out like the sars virus

before it joined us it. now at 2025 the global potential pandemic here and people fear is compound it by the fact that nothing in the global economy is anchored to anything so let it be so you have to swim are shriveling paranoia by just orientation in a world around any kind of solid banker and it's only going to get more chaotic. we know in psychology that the more people are told that they can't or shouldn't do something whether it's sexual or otherwise the more it makes them want to do it so trying new things violating taboos are some of the most common and pervasive elements in our sexual fantasies.

welcome back throughout history humankind has conducted and often an equal bottle with strains of disease martin standards of hygiene and public health and many countries have contained infections but more than travel in our global village presents you deja news alex is interviewing journalist and author mark konigsberg on the potential threat from the current crew of by this break. delta homes boom is said to the modern world is particularly vulnerable to uveitis because of international travel but surely modern science is going to come to an assist well i certainly hope so i said i mean yes i mean what we've seen in this century and even

starting before with the flu outbreaks in the 1990 s. is that because of the greater interconnectivity not just more jet travel more business travelers 'd more trade by ships and trains that a virus that pops up anywhere in the world can be anywhere else in the world within 72 hours and what was particularly striking about the outbreak began in hand. is a domestic hub for travel within china not only that but it has $113.00 norms flights to 20 destinations worldwide so that is absolutely astonishing and that's a big step change in the sort of connectivity you know even compared to 2002 when saw a merge saw as of course 'd also originate in southern china but very quickly hopped into hong kong and we now know that that outbreak was spread worldwide because

infected. guy checked into a hotel in calhoun where he interacts with 9 other passengers including his stewardesses by the way and they all went on planes the next day and it juiced the virus to vietnam to australia and also to toronto in canada i think but the sars virus which some people ask it a prototype for this week it seemed to bug in itself is a hope that the school but itself yeah i think that's that's a very distinct possibility because what we know. is they spread much more efficiently in cold weather in winter conditions so this latest quote of ours is among the worst possible. time in the chinese winter right the thing about saws is that emerged later than that so by the time it hit home comb it was already 'd. ok and we were moving into the spring so we may be lucky in that the loop because we've been successful it seems in delaying the virus spreading very far

outside china and we're now moving into february and march as the weather comes hopefully will dampen down transmission and we will see coronavirus fade away in the same way that we saw the swine flu fade away in 2009 but that doesn't mean it's gone because of course it could come back in the following winter season but the interesting thing that link to stay steam is only know to say that perhaps quarter of a 1000000 people actually died of psuedo flu what old way been has a big numbers are not see this enough no it is it is there is and we were we were right to respond in the way we did for the vast majority of the population you would or you would have a very mild illness and certainly wouldn't been seen as this you know scary hollywood type disease and this is a component of the normal annual seasonal flu which is what we judge against

because at least kill several 100000 people every year well exact i think in a bad flu season the u.k. you might see 12000 deaths in america of course as many or as high up in excess of 60000 swine flu we know globally in the 1st year of the pandemic i think killed something like 800000 of course that then came back in successive winter flu seasons and that's why the case counts as a high as you just cited under 25 may be 2 of the many as 200000 people but every year 500000 people who die of flu ok so you have to keep it in that sort of perspective so. clear would you judge in so far as we don't know the this. covered $1000.00 arising from carnival is it going to be likely spanish flu 400 years ago $50000000.00 dead perhaps over the course of it or more likely that the swine flu of 10 years ago with 200000 died over the period of time

i don't think it's anything like 918 at the moment that was those comparisons were based on the early will tell if the calculations coming out of china which we know were probably pretty much lower than that having said that there is something old about this virus the way it seems to be the very subtle virus very wily powers if you think about a good strategy for a virus to spread wild worldwide is actually not to make many people say right in darwinian terms virus will succeed if it gets through all our controls and the best way it can do that is the spread of the radar by not causing overt illness so that's what it's doing so it's like you say a virus think it's a bit well it's short it doesn't think but what it does is it is continually mutate it will it continue making errors and the errors which are advantages to survival will be the ones that persist so if we break a chain of politicians like yeah well the natural so natural to mission so if we break a particular trade and isolate

a so if we rid about these patients who are supposedly highly infectious. so if we are controls or effect of the borders that we managed to stop infected too many other people then that chain of caltex dies out so our virus therefore doesn't want to kill its host starts in the fish from the finest point of view is a poor strategy for the virus long term because if it kills all its hosts then there will be new people to transmit it all so that's why flu viruses you know so successful we rightly fear them more than anything the thing about the difference i would say which gives me some reassurance is that influenza virus as we know is highly mutable. you know even the regular flu is that the transmitted from season to season always changing shape and acquiring you jeems which is why we have to update our vaccines this quote a virus like other ones we've encountered seems to be quite stable it doesn't seem

to be mutating so as to become more virulent and cause more severe illness so that's good the bad news on the other hand is it seems to not cause illness in many people and we really don't know if say for instance children of certain age groups may be shedding the virus without showing any symptoms so the concern is that it could well be more severe than the swine flu i seen some estimates that say that the corona virus outbreak is probably 6 times worse than a normal seasonal influenza outbreak in terms of the number of people who might be infected so there are all these big gun though. and it comes back when the questions are asked with a stop shouldn't you know we've got foster communications and the world makes these outbreaks more likely but then we have science on our side hasn't science actually protected us when science related to the rescue with the vaccine i've seen

estimates from the big chill 15 months why should a vaccine take 18 months to. elop when the genotype of this virus is already known well i mean the reason is we don't have the off the shelf prototype vaccine for create a virus ready to go so one of the failures in 20023 when we had the break walls 'd we didn't seize the opportunity or have time really to develop any vaccines so the good news now is we have all these scientific networks and platforms 'd and organizations like the working trust like seppi who have these platforms ready to go to share information and as quickly as possible but the shortest time we could have like an early clinical trial safety study in a small group of people is the sub because we're very risk adverse we you know of course we want to have a virus a vaccine against the coronavirus but we have to be sure that the vaccine isn't worse than the disease itself so you know we have to make sure it's safe that people don't have serious adverse reactions could be

a interactions that could worsen people's health outcomes. and we don't have any of the contracts in place that during the swine flu the world health organization britain and other countries set up these sleeping contracts with the big backseat manufacturers because there's a big commercial aspect to it right there's no money in this really for the pharmaceutical industry so they have to be persuaded to ramp up their production so that they can speed up that process from a year to 18 months to hopefully yes that less than a year don has been thank you very much indeed no i have here a quick which we give our guesses scott's got the loving cup and not satin if this is an altogether why some come and some can stance is because it's to be passed on your friends but the key is it's whiskey only scotch in the quick and i think less effect of against almost viruses i'm very happy to that. a glass of scotch is known

to cure all ills alex yes this has been thanks michael. it is said that the global food pandemic of a century ago received comparatively little news coverage at the time despite killing up to 50000000 people month e.-d. as it collectively it was difficult for society to rationalize the sudden deaths of so many healthy adults some of whom had just returned from surviving the killing grounds of the great war the origins of the pandemic i know better understood thanks to its genetic pattern of this hitch one n one virus being identified some 15 years ago it did not to vision it in spain which is supported by this and probably in the midwest of the united states one of those deadly initial transmission systems was a crowned troop ships heading to and from the western front. 100 years ago rather like the present day millions of people were on the move and this mother of all viruses moved with them now certain things are different 24 hour news ensures that

every emerging viral threat receives vast coverage before the casualty rate has reached thousands nevermind millions the current crooner virus is a case in point i new virus emerging i took bats or snakes to the east and generating global fear and economic dislocation long before the present a clear and present danger to most of humanity already the economic impact is predicted to wipe out world economic growth in the 1st quarter of this year the race for crown of itis a vaccine within months also offers a backstop that to cordon public health measures can slow the spread of the virus until vaccination can be introduced the collective memory of the great flu pandemic is strong and this is referenced point for the challengers which are nice feast for recent emerging viral infections humanity has thus far dodged the bullets that really deadly one such as sars is in a bowl or have been relatively difficult to catch while those easily transmittable

such as most into flu have had a relatively mild impact for most people it is estimated that 2000 to one swine flu pandemic may have killed 250000 people worldwide however the large total is somewhat less than seasonal flu and the vast majority of the hundreds of millions infected by it suffered a little discomfort the jury is still light as to whether the new corona virus will fit that patent but indications are that it shout it is clearly easily transmittable it just to be hoped that for most people it will also result in subclinical outcomes. beyond the current emergency there's still lurks in the shadows a doomsday scenario of the emergence of a species jumping virus potent in its impact and deficient in its transmission such a contagion could kill millions worldwide before any vaccine could be widely deployed it is the possibility of such a viral armageddon which will continue to occupy the creative powers of hollywood

script writers but more significantly the nightmares of medical scientists governments should be preparing our defenses. next week we'll turn to the subject of refugees has the u.k. become a country which celebrates a soul in providing a haven for children say nazi germany but now has to remit this in for the child refugees of 14 get up but for now from alex myself i know this too we hope to see you next week. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy

confrontation let it be an arms race based on often spearing dramatic developments only really i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical time time to sit down and talk. back guys or financial survival guys like with those that you can convert music past quite easily. to keep in mind though as a tremendous pleasure to watch record.

i. turkey threatened syrian forces in its own province of idlib and a u.s. patrol clashes with residents of an eastern town resulting in the death of a boy. italy's former interior minister faces a trial charged with illegally holding more than $100.00 refugees at sea as the senate votes to investigate the anti migrant politician. the german city of dresden commemorates 75 years since the 2nd world war bombing campaign has left an estimated 25000 dead we speak to a man who narrowly escaped the ordeal. there were bodies lying around everything was destroyed it was chaos because there were also many refugees from poland and east.