years old when i was extremely ill with the asian flu my mother find me unconscious in bed have had the flu see times and each time still very ill susan says excellent informative presentation thank you and finally and says great show as always thank you to you all for your messages i'm glad you find the show to be so informative and i do feel action is all it's came as a bolt from the blue to the long established participant guild and for the foil they have dominated irish politics since independence a century ago but no longer a party it was a pariah only a few years ago because of its links with ira the violence emerged under the new leadership of maidenly mcdonald to become islands most popular party this is a prospectus merely mcdonnell set it when she became party leader the war is over and there is no purchase no sentiment at all or told that i see that wishes for a return to any form of political violence. i think it would be

a very very foolish person and a truly food dish government that would gamble or that would take the necessary risks with all of that i believe the peace process is robust. i believe thout certain irish nationalism is growing in confidence is very much at ease and happy with the general momentum and direction of political traffic i am conscious that some of our unionist brothers and sisters are perhaps not as secure are happy with all of the us but generally i think it's fair to say that there is no appetite for conflict that is merely mcdonald 2 years tickle this is the main part of the to set their post-election stall in the irish parliament the doyle 450000 people did vote for finnish gael in this election just come by not

many fewer than phina fall not all that many fewer than fame and much more than any other party or group of independents in this house and those 450000 people didn't vote against change they voted to say that they were satisfied with some of the changes that have taken place in the past 2 years what they wanted more change in other areas not least in health and housing some of them thought they did a good job in the round and they're people who shared our vision and shared our values and agreed with our policies and agreed with our ideas and we will honor that mandation and i hope that others will recognize that while we may be diminished the mandate of fortune 50000 votes is not a small one. so suggesting some to today that we step aside. that we abstain that we somehow allow others to form a government we will not do that but we believe that the next government must be based on the belief that steve action is required to improve key services and to

address emergencies and housing health climate change and the cost of living we are very clear and we reject the idea that major increases in taxes especially on enterprise can be introduced without causing dramatic damage especially for workers at the public finances you see that's really what the problem is here because of course government formation is about numbers we can of course go from information is a bad policy coherence no one's arguing to the contrary but government information is also about power and who wields us and the reality is that feeling of phone and senate gate have run the show for almost a century and by christ they're not minded to let go that's really wash all of this is about so what are the consequences of this dramatic election alex biggs 1st to professor john toll of the university of liverpool. professor john told how big

a shock to the political system of the public a violent has the selection result being this is a monumental shake up of politics in the republic of ireland for nearly a century the 2 big parties finn a foil and finn a gala dominated no one really thought that should fame would be on the brink of being in government in both parts of the on the violent she could be in government in the south they're already in government in the north and that fundamentally changes the outlook on irish politics both north and south of the border was seen in exchanges from the post-election debate on the dial the irish parliament doesn't seem to be any love lost between the 3 leaders of the no 3 main parties in the public yeah that's right i mean this huge antipathy from the i stopped parties ition fane like to call them towards shin fein finnick ale and finish for oil won't do business with sinn fein they say they won't form a coalition which in fame because of him fame is controversial past and its former

associations with the ira should feigns messages respect our mandate and shin fein is looking now for a seat in government that will transform things on the on the vine looking is any question about that because shin feigns agenda was this is not an election victory built upon support for a united ireland it's built upon other things nonetheless at the heart of shin feigns agenda is pressure for a united ireland if not something or a pilot blocks the view of the city guilty of allowed to the present the short. after in the lead of in a file to say the they would have shouldn't government in the public a violent police were promoting shin fein back into government in northern ireland absolutely and that's a question that fit a foil and finagle have never addressed satisfactorily and that's part of the reason why the electorate lost faith in for the fall and finagle you can't say that shin fein is perfectly respectable in the north and that you know. this must share

power with should fade but then on the other hand say you want to inflame with a bargepole down south in the electorate are not stupid they can see that that's a paradox they see that's a something that cannot it's a conundrum that cannot be solved so therefore you know the electorate said actually we think shin fein are legit legitimate political party and that's why a quarter of people voted for shin fein and should famously bitterly regretting not fielding more candidates in the south they only fielded $42.00 because the election surpassed their expectations i think eventually figure for oil off in a gale will have to do business with sinn fein but the moment they're still treating them as toxic i think they're still marooned in 1980 s. 1990 s. mindset in their attitudes to shin fein. 3 weeks after the election still lost sight of a government being formed what's your best guess as a professor studying irish politics what government is likely to of nerves from

this very very confused outcome of this 2 possible option should faine will try i think to form a government with various parties on the left i'm not sure the numbers are quite there for that but i think she and fame will definitely try and do that mary lou mcdonald is perfectly capable of forming alliances with a wide range of left wing parties if that cannot work that it may be back to the old ways of a fin a 4 wheel fin a gale administration we had in the past finagle as the main party with affinity for playing a supportive role in government in recent years that's hardly had a recent rezoning vote of confidence from the electorate so to simply carry on as if the election hadn't happened i don't think is a credible position so that's why i still think the shin fein will be in government in some form in a coalition probably with parties of the left as one of shouldn't think strongpoints late no is there certainly one party which doesn't fear another

election if a guy. can't be formed absolutely can fame will feel more candidates and i think they'll get even more seats if there was to be another election this year and that's something that leader of iraq or is a leader if in a gale and me whole martin is leader of fin a foil must really really fear they know they're going to keep shin fein out of government this is probably their own chance they're going to have to do some sort of deal together but i don't think the electoral particular like that and i don't think it would be particularly stable if you have more of the same a fin a gale and finn a foil in government therefore i think it's quite a strong possibility that there will be another election at some point this year and all the indications are in fame will do very very well indeed i think shifting failure here to stay the idea that this was some sort of protest vote that pushing fane in is is for the birds this is a longer term realignment of irish politics in which we're not talking about a big 2 parties anymore we're talking about a big 3 parties of which in fame is one in which in fame may eventually become the

dominant party supplanting i the fin a foil off in a gale this is a longer term project yes it's true that she feigned vote was built upon annoyance over issues and on housing and homelessness but it wasn't just a protest vote it's a wider reconfiguration of irish politics so what does that mean for the prospects of a board of paul paul or the reunification of violent and how will that go down in the public and how would that go down in northern ireland i think is a question of when not if there will be aboard a poll in terms of northern ireland's constitutional future i have little doubt that in the south us b 2 referendums remember the has to be majority consent for irish unification both north and south of the border in the south and expect them to be on the opinion poll evidence a majority in favor i don't quite there yet in the north should change program wants a border poll within 5 years whether that about a poll within 5 years i think is open to question be. in the north it's within the

gift of the pretty secretary of state who may be reluctant to risk war within northern ireland so i would suggest a border poll is likely not perhaps within the next 5 years but certainly within the next decade and shin fein continues to make the advances that they're making then they might be able to win majorities north and south i stood still think they need to convert a number of voters in the north to get them over the line but people are talking seriously now not just about a voter poll but about a united ireland arising from that board of poll and lastly professor will you be lecturing to your students on the university of liverpool over. the last few years did you ever think it likely that you'd be discussing with them that eminent possibility of shouldn't even be in government in the public a violent or niland civil to me is like that when i started out in academia fame we're a pariah party they were polling less than 2 percent in the irish republic and they

had a vote in the north but it was always a minority vote even amongst the national population things have changed and changed utterly should faine is now the the most popular party on the on the violent shift they will be producing a prospectus for irish unification as a consequence of its position electorally and all of the parties are going to have to respond to what should faine wants in terms of our huge occasion even if they don't welcome the prospect of unification themselves so we should face setting the agenda on the on the violent for the next few years professor john tong university of liverpool thank you very much indeed pleasure. the new ideas government when formed will have huge implications for the politics of the norse join us after the big win we continue our discussions on the future of irish politics.

so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy confrontation let it be an arms race off and spearing dramatic developments only i'm going to resist i don't see that strategy will be successful very critical guy time to sit down and talk. later just. this minute. actually nano. and then there's the

numbers you know not. can if you had a way out all of them ok if true. was not a master plan a little bit like about a day out wait for the last 3 of a good watch. to be. the one that having. people. give the nightly. what the how do we slow our d r c when i last are shown in a need. for. what i would not asia was. just not just an honest. in the united states presidential candidates debate the future of the u.s. and the world. max kaiser and stacy herbert dig into the burning questions of this election cycle one topic every week. tax student debt trade wars

corporate money universal basic income and more catch up with what's front running this sunday exclusively on r.t. . welcome back in the last few years slugger to his blog has established himself as a go to site for information on northern irish politics we asked at a to make the of what the result in the south means for the north. i delighted to be joined by the editor of violence preddy of political blog welcome back to the alex i was like from alex so this side of this election few weeks ago shouldn't the political wing of the provisional ira the cast of irish politics for generations become the leading off the in terms of the popular vote how big a shock is that to the political system i think to the political system in the

republic it's been a huge shock. i think it's delighted many political journalists just because it's so interesting and it kind of so overturns most of the expected outcomes that were predicted at the beginning many of the political journalists in dublin were predicting that this was. a whole martens feel for the party's election to loose and indeed they did lose they lose they lost a huge amount of ground they have the traditional poverty of government in the public and along with feel a guild of great rivals of being the kind of old fart of the fuckin cola that all of. elections for a while since independence 100 years ago absolutely 922 phoenixville figgins previous us a party took over they were in charge for the 1st 10 years fan of foil were the party that was defeated in the civil war that came in after independence and they were set up in 1926 and really since devil or 1932 they've been the dominant party

you could say the party of government i don't like in the u.k. not really a party of the right but the party of the center of the center left really until 2008 that pertained then to the financial crisis came and in 2011 they were spectacularly. defenestrated if you like the real sharpest time was that they weren't able to build the many of the advances that they've made in 2016 and i think there is a presumption certainly between. fan of falling from the guilt that they were still the major players and if they got one up against the other that would indicate political success mary lynn mcdonnell and friend came through the middle and completely disrupted the whole sort of giufà public so the smear looping done of the newly built should fail only leader for the last 2 years and really the little shouldn't feign who had a distance between her and the trouble she's a fuss little shouldn't fail or omitted from the south of the republic of ireland

well in the 1st leadership did any 6 so you know her predecessor was in the job a very long time princess or a struggle at times to end the kit that she herself is free of the control of not necessarily active fire a man but certainly the senior command that won't were once and in control of the of the provisionals the t.v. show that sleeve that i'd kill for the gale often the opposition leader will feel the fall. elections say we're not dealing with shouldn't feed on that i would suck of the try to maintain the dish look position that leaves a stoutly spot is wouldn't touch and feel of a barge pull for the electorate that will agree no i'm in a sense that was a fear of their own framing and the way both parties feel to come up with some kind of a convincing campaign there are 2 things that this one shouldn't feel and have a huge amount of clarity around 2 issues one was hosing which is that was which is

this time that was the senior policy issue there and they have a spokesman owner of bread we spend a lot of time on not subject as written a couple of books on it is fluent and clear no some of the promises that were made in terms of what was deliverable don't look particularly deliverable to me but it was ensuring with the public's idea of high urgent the hosing in the home homeless problem work and the other was the finance spokesman piers dougherty who didn't. a lot of interesting work around. insurance premiums and not really made the other 2 parties look very leaden footed that may hold martin is in particular any very fluent in policy but really it was a scholar gone and i think the the precision bombing of shin fin on those popular issues i think is the thing that the 2 parties didn't really expect or use to feel

to the ship in finn's credibility on the social and economic issues and rather the dish we associate with failure and the need. for relocation of violence you say it was these issues and that credibility of the public that ability was clouded the absolutely although it's important to note that those were not the 2 major things that they started with. there was talk about a border poll in the run up to the election but i think it wasn't just health and hosing there were other things but they clearly had segmented i mean the thing to understand about the political system is the p.r. system that we've got means the if you're going to take power you have to create a broad appeal so how harvesting and health of pay lives really right across the country but they also came a against the carbon tax they came out and promised that they would get rid of what's left of the local rates so there was a real pale i think to per people in the rural areas to try and get through or not

so yeah absolutely the reunification issue really doesn't appear a little on an electoral basis although they were helped by at the very beginning by a very kind handed commemoration proposal put out by the government to remember the police force the british police force before before in the palance and not. just black in towns or live the kind of military type. into a regimental police force to. so controversial in the process of independence an island and who were basically old soldiers taken from the western front used to brutality done to them and brutality done back and on least on the irish population and not i think a walk a little kind of angry republicanism of the certain angry on the britishness a think definitely plays into sion fans so here we are 3 weeks after the election

no sign of a government so what's going to happen well we're here at the end of february and the teacher has already said that he expects to go to washington on the 17th of march so he doesn't expect not to be the t. shirt by then which gives you some indication of just how complicated this negotiation process of the election he would come in the lever that being the 3rd party know both in terms of votes and seats absolutely i mean it is there's an awful lot of negotiations going on at the moment. there are 2 days of negotiations going on between fan of foil and the green party shinn fan of already and the green party have also also met for a whole day at how far i mean because the truth is the point of these negotiations is to see whether multiple parties can get together around a programme for government so the details that come around in such a. in such

a situation have to be work done to the absolute bottom line so that the minor parties that go into it know that when they come back for election they've been able to deliver certain concrete things because many of these left wing pasties were delivered through the proportional system into the seats effectively by shouldn't fame transfer don't the then those independents will who have to say the mother is to get something for the particular part of ireland oh it's getting very popular to be not part of any political party at all. i mean there's a family in kerry called the race they have to they've elected 2 brothers and they are absolutely consummate negotiators for kerry not the rest of the country just for kerry and the kerry people love coming to what's going to happen and what are the implications for the for the public if i win this is of us has been a political f. one of the implications for the future of politics in the pub well it's hard to say

because we're so far we're still so far away from an outcome this could really take until april it's going to be a struggle to get there and if the to me either of the 2 main parties fails to get enough support from the independents the smaller parties the greens i think will go in with almost any party because they have a clear set of policies which has broad buy in from most of the political party so there are you can almost line them up and say well they will go in with almost anyone it's really whether they get to the magical it is 8 point at which point then the coalition can command a majority in the door. to go to the middle that's always possible you did it in your own in your own career that's part of the s.n.p. broke through scotland and you managed to maintain it for what 4 years i think it's more problematic in the door. because it's more fragmented i mean for instance there are 2 center left parties now there's the labor party in the social democrats

you've also going to have lots of different agendas from the opposition and the only reason that we have a stable government over the last 4 years was the fianna fáil supported fini gale from the opposition benches there is a pos one possible outcome that martin may have the moral authority to turn around to leo varadkar and said well we did it for you know your turn to bite the bullet and do for us. there's a certain way politics to be over ugh. to me there he's already announced that he wants to head to the opposition benches he's hoping then that will force martin to do what martin absolutely doesn't want to do which is to go into government with van and i don't think he will i think the alternative. is probably another election if they fail to pull this off together but surely a couple circumstances another election would also suit shouldn't they have the moment there's not many scenarios and scenarios going forward that doesn't suit me

and this is the fascinating thing about this not only did she take everyone else by surprise they took themselves by surprise they simply didn't choose enough candidates to be able to get to be the majority party only 5 candidates didn't get elected so next time around the run more and they'll get more seats so therefore lasley may mean in the north women shouldn't fade the leading past in terms of force preferences in the public a violent shouldn't feedback in government installment a belfast surely ulster unionists must be saying we're going off to face the reality that shouldn't feel as an all ireland party is becoming the dominant force what does that mean for well funnily enough i think unionists are probably more relaxed than most of the people in the republic if there's moral panic anywhere it's in dublin it's not in belfast and that's because i mean i think there's 2

reasons for that one we've had an inclusive executive hasn't worked very well mostly because it's been the most disruptive influence on not put unionists have got become accustomed to that the other aspect of it is that this is a really massive reversal titian fans electoral fortunes north of the border just in the general election back in december where they lost the foreign seat by something like 17 and a half 1000 votes so i think unionists are they've been through picture thin as they see it. i don't think they particularly solution fan as a direct threat at least in the short term they have a finally when you started the slow go to political blogs of years ago did you really expect the possibility perhaps even the probability of seeing should fail in government and the public a file and 100 all of the i certainly didn't but in 2002 or 3 they came out of that year's election with 5 t.v.'s the following election i have for the last one but

this is been building since 2011 and i think it has surprised people in the short term but in the long term this is always been the pitch power north and size and then what they hope to do is to project authority into the north begin to ship the discourse arrives you know that aren't like fealty facts was a good feel and say thank you cheers alex. whatever formation of government emerges from the doyle the politics of violence have now changed and actively it is generally accepted that this insane surged more to social neck in ormoc issues than bags it or the board of pool but the fact that the party of reunification is within touching distance of becoming the only party both north and south has defined implications for the future of island and the future of the union will soon be presenting a series of interviews with leading politicians and commentators who are considering the feature of northern ireland some of their conclusions will surprise all our

thought provoking next week we'll examine the date of radical politics will fit into the history of scotland but for now i'm from alex myself and all that the show we hope to see you next week. people who have money in pension account people who have money in savings are actually digging into their pockets because their savings rate are now yielding close to 0 or negative they're taking money out of their pockets thanks to the central bankers and they're giving it to

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