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tv   Boom Bust  RT  February 28, 2020 5:30am-6:01am EST

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or more from their recent highs wiping off more than $3.00 trillion dollars from global stock markets given how fast this drop was many economists are pointing to the coronavirus as a true black swan event in a span of just 6 days the us market went from record highs to correction territory with the dow down over a 1000 points today over 3000 points for the week securities report said this plunge is the only the 2nd time in history that this has happened the other time was in 1928 and that just means that the only other time the dow has entered a correction this fast was just before the start of the great depression now markets don't like uncertainty but this is quite the ultimate uncertainty because there is no clear timeframe of how long how severe this will be and the knock on effect afterwards compounding the disruptions already and then in the absence of facts and data traders now have to rely on technicals and right now most world indexes are claiming potentially on to the $200.00 day moving averages u.s.
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10 year treasury yield hit a new record low below one and a quarter percent as investors clamor for safety goldman sachs is projecting 0 percent growth for the u.s. companies this year given the severe decline in chinese economic activity disruption to the supply chain elevated business uncertainty and low demand for u.s. exporters this is a drastic deviation from previous consensus which is still pricing in a 7 percent growth european equities to 3.6 percent lower and officially entered correction territory with the cac the dax and the flat the all down but let's take a quick look at asia while the west is swimming in a sea of red the shanghai composite the hang thing and the cent and index are all positive china sports have reached a turning point as crane operators customer operators and other key logistic links begin to slot back into place turnaround times are starting to improve as the ports work to clear up the backlog official numbers continue to show a drop in new cases and deaths in the country despite. the worsening situation and
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other parts of the world so again as as the u.s. markets are in this terrible territory again now really 4 consecutive days but as you said about 3000 points for the week so far asia is doing well which almost seems like a misnomer here is it just because the effects that they're feeling getting things back online is positive which means we should follow that shortly i think it is as long as japan and south korea doesn't worsen because the big fear is that china is currently starting to put it but if japan and south korea start to drastically decelerate that's going to have bring in a 2nd wave of celebration for china as well because times are allowed to panic korea as major major trading partners the 3 of those nations are responsible for 24 percent of the entire world's growth right now and south korea and japan as you know are very big hugs for technology and everything in the high tech manufacturing sector so what it really comes down to is how is the rest of the world going to respond to this now that we've looked at how the markets are reacting let's talk about what they're reacting to let's begin here in the u.s.
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where the nation's 1st case of unknown origin for the corona virus has been confirmed and it's in northern california that new case brings the number of infected here in the u.s. to 64 meanwhile president trump has assigned vice president mike pence the job of overseeing u.s. response to and control of the coronavirus the president says this is not a coronavirus czar position but that penzance past experience as governor of indiana would make him the right person he says to deal with state and local health authorities listen. i look forward. mr president to serving in this rule bringing together all the members of the corona task force that you've established to see d.h. as the department of transportation and state this team has been a your direction mr president meeting every day since it was established my role will be to continue to. bring that team together to bring to the president to the
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best options for action to see to the safety of well being and healthy american people. so what else is going on around the world while in saudi arabia there has been a temporary ban placed on all pilgrims muslim pilgrims religious pilgrims in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus meanwhile pilgrims from dubai in egypt and other surrounding nations they're not going to be allowed in tree into saudi arabia to prevent the spread of the virus and then christine mentioned japan minute ago and how they're responding in japan the prime minister there he has called for all schools in the country to close from monday until the end of their spring holidays we're talking about elementary junior high senior high and special needs schools nationwide that means some 13000000 students across the country would actually stay home for at least a month japan is dealing with more than $890.00 cases but that includes $705.00 people on that quarantine princess cruise ship meanwhile as of right now plans for
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the tokyo olympic games those have not changed. what i need to say 1st is our basic thoughts are that if you go ahead we can you limping and paralympic games as scheduled at the time being the situation of coronavirus infection that it needed li is difficult to predict but we will take measures such as we'll have a safe and assured olympic and paralympic games this is our basic palmas the. violence go deeper on this issue which is the dean of business school at the university of miami john glad that you're here obviously a lot to talk about but i actually want to start with something here an issue known as pandemic bongs so pandemic bonds were issued by the world bank in 2017 it's a pretty simple idea just to catch a few were say or they pay investors a solid return but if a pandemic breaks out the principal is redirected to help low income countries pay for their emergency response these world bank bonds are on the verge of being.
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triggered for the very 1st time now normally these bonds as an asset class they would be kind of uncorrelated with wider markets but in this case they would be very correlated as we watch the market falls so will these bonds be triggered do you think and what would that ultimately mean for markets. first of all the bombs in question there are about $450000000.00 worth of that were issued through the world bank and 2017 as you indicate when you have a pandemic you have the possibility of these bonds being triggered by literally it's the number of deaths that are attributable to the particular issue in this case the coronavirus if that level of deaths is reached then the ball. diverted the principle is diverted to developing countries so the pressure is not put on government budgets to respond to the crisis
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in their countries that's the idea behind them but as you point out the emergence of a pandemic is going to cause a triggering that is not going to allow these problems to be a diversification of risk they're actually going to be moving in power level with the decline of the markets and the bones in question have been selling off an enormously rapid pace and ever increasing discount and of cause this is no time to consider the issuing of new bonds no one is going to be particularly interested in picking up new kids hastur for your pandemic baum's when we're actually in the middle of a pandemic. now at this point it appears that this record expansion of the u.s. economy that that risk of being seriously halted by the coronavirus market has been selling off for date for 4 days in a row and a number of companies like airlines are having to resort to shareholders about the
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losses that they're facing so well while the markets find the bottom or does a solid continue for the rest of this week. ok so there the key uncertainties here are the following number one the availability of sufficient reliable test kits number 2 the availability of reliable treatment regimes to reduce the mortality rate and the morbidity rate associated with contract in the virus. item number 3 the number 3 is the availability of a vaccine in sufficient quantities to be able to prevent people contract in the virus all of these 3 are at the moment in the stage of uncertainty which means that the market is very skittish because there's no predictability about when the corrective measures going to be able to be
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implemented so i think where still in that uncertain where the markets are going to be very very nervous and. in a sense fearful of the lack of progress on those fronts and of course as the virus spreads through the fact that you can infect others while not showing any symptoms yourself while it spreads internationally in a very very rapid way that of course has a knock on effect from one market to the other so perhaps until a week ago we were thinking well china is bearing the brunt of this and we're going to be able to contain it within china that is clearly not proving to be the case and so now china related market drop is spilling over into the entire international economy yeah and incidentally when you mention about the issue of
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a vaccine i mean it takes time to get a vaccine developed and then whether or not it works as a whole other question but right now this is based upon. market fear right is not necessarily connected to the actual halting of manufacturing or any kind of backlog and yet there's a very real concern here john that just a few months from now we're going to also have the issue of real actual losses for airline and energy sectors that bad news when it comes to the actual inability to get products from china because of the backlog when it comes to the actual loss because of the fact that energy was not consumed is that cause the market to dive even further. so until about a week ago way we essentially were talking about a supply side problem that the shut down of factories in china was essentially disrupting supply chains worldwide now we have talking about a demond side problem that is beyond china but now spilling over to the rest of the
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world and when i say that i'm on side problem what i'm referring to is consumer of fear and consumer lack of confidence which is going to result in consumers postponing purchases of curable products that are discretionary it's not just the travel industry and the entertainment industry it's automobiles it's household appliances it's buying a new house when there is this level of fear and uncertainty on the dumond side you're going to see a slowdown without question without question john quelch dean of the university of miami business school thanks so much for your time. thank you. now for quite. a break we have a breakdown around the globe. what may be on the horizon manufacturers in the u.s.
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should we actually be charging for it because this is. a benefit to the. education about 30 or 40 years ago but the perspective of education was originally that education is a benefit to society in general i wouldn't want to live in a society with. ignoring the public. ignoring the. school on the individuals who is just. also starting.
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with the market breakdown thursday it marks the 27th correction since world war 2 with an average decline of about 13.7 percent the dow ended up $1200.00 points from yesterday's close so basically now the big question is is this the bottom to help us answer that let's bring in our market analysts that are the trade so let's start there no one knows if they're headed for a recession or in the middle of a recession until the aftermath and you're looking back but do you think that in the future we'll look back on this moment and say that the coronavirus was basically the big catalyst that it was the blacks one of them that pushed us all off the edge into a recession. thanks for having me late i think recession is a very scary who're to use but the situation can certainly play under what circumstances if we start to see the fortress rising i think right now the number there which really matters for for economists or for enemies of the analyst is
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start looking at the firms with a higher debt and the default rate if we start seeing these numbers increasing then yes the recession fear could really become that the biggest fear that the market has been waiting for as you describe the black swan event but right now i really do not see that kind of a fear in the market why look at the gold price that is a safe haven asset right so we touched a $1685.00 or $689.00 level just a few days back and ever since we seen that price retracing from that particular mark now the price is trading here trading at i think about 1625 in or around that mark so what does that tell me that tells you that. investors aren't really ready to place those biggest safehaven bets and if you look at the vix index yes the year to date gains a very nice and very strong sitting at 154 percent and the price is trading in
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around 33 but this is the territory when we start seeing the markets actually bouncing back up because remember the major indices as you described the year the are in battle with the with the most important indicator when it comes to technical analysis that is the 200 day moving average if the price suddenly moves back above that average watch the tailwind coming then you know looking at those market moves today we did start the day off or down about $400.00 points and then right at the open and then we saw everything kind of climbing back up it looked like maybe there was going to be a recovery throughout the day in about 2 o'clock in that it right we just nose got a nosedive after that so the question is this are or traders just buying the dip out of the habit at this point trying to fish for the bottom or do you think they have found it is this the bottom or are we going to see another another day of this . i think traders are clearly overreacting there is no reason for the
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dollar to see this kind of sell off the only reason that i can see is this monster bull rally that we have seen in the market over the last decade i mean literally since the financial crisis the market hasn't seen a major correction now we are and that correction territory the 10 percent territory. like the dow jones index actually a went below the tuner to move an average yesterday and he was only the s. and p. 500 index which was really ticking near the 100 day moving average but now everything is below that from the traders perspective i think this is the buy the opportunity because he did but only if we see that this. the impact of corner virus isn't going to be for long. that is the indication that we're seeing in the market because if you see the vix futures curve they can compare the 1st month with
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the 2nd month you see the inversion coming what does that mean that really entails that really tells us this story that investors are not really looking at q one they are actually looking at the period of uncertainty prolonged beyond the q and until perhaps q 2 but i think what we really need right now is more more support from central banks and that's not really very getting that support from our talk a lot about that global central bank they're always prepared to step in to create a softer landing one that something like this occurs but isn't there this other school of thought right now that the effectiveness of just a couple of rate cuts in combat in the outbreak that is now worth using up the ammunition so that they do that now how will they then address the real downturn in the domestic economy in the aftermath. that's really intriguing. remember the when the when the running tap europe was pretty pretty much in
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a brink of collapse mario draghi came and then he just used one phrase what every takes that particular phrase was and after support the euro zone at that particular time but now we have christine legarde sitting on it and they're not providing that sort of support that the markets really need now going back and see a question with a couple of point of interest rate cut we certainly not have that state i don't think we need the interest rate cut i think what we need is we need a combination of 2 different policies fiscal and monetary policies coming together and supporting the economy and we've already seen the evidence of that from the people bank of china remember they already reduce the import. reduce the tires on the u.s. import. and at the same time the bank also. allowed the other retail banks to run the non-performing loans for days or be longer so these are more often wondered through policy in the fiscal policy combination that
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is what we need my fear is that the u.s. is not doing enough and now krone virus spreading to the u.s. and then that these numbers are likely to increase is really going to have a major impact on the markets whatever takes name as i'm chief market analyst of arbitrary thank you so much. was we closely monitor of the spread of the coronavirus and how it's affecting markets we should also note how the virus is affecting the drug supply as well as the technology sectors joining us now with that part or even correspondents there a month as they look up there but you're here and you know maybe one of the most under-reported parts of the story right is how the medical supplies are being affected by manufacturing shutdowns and that includes some of the most important any biopics that are used by hospitals and you would think at the time of a i don't call pandemic as we're not quite there yet but on the verge of a pandemic those might be the drugs we need the most what's happening with that slowdown well there is in india possibly a chance for
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a slowdown in the future the f.d.a. actually identified about 20 drugs that either are partially made or their core components come from china or completely made from china and the the house health and human services secretary of the united states as are commented on that and said what the f.d.a. is doing in case or at least trying to do an attempt to to combat that take a listen. what we're doing now is the f.d.a. is reaching out to all pharmaceutical manufacturers device manufacturers excited to make sure we've got visibility the latest fruits of that work showed that there are 20 form of suitable products we are aware of to date at f.d.a. where either the entire product is made in china or there is a critical active ingredient that is sorely sourced within china so those would be obviously the most targeted to could be concerned about to date we are not aware of any expected shortages and we have aggressively proactively reached out to
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manufacturers for that information. so they're saying to date there there's no shortage however there are 2 main manufacturers in who bay province in china that are saying they have an overproduction right now but we're talking right now what about in the future that's what we're trying to worry and see what they're going to do when it comes to that and right now one of the things entire status on a potential back scene for the coronavirus or any sort of treatment well i know that there are a few right now which is what's kind of helping at least from my derm i think it was one of the companies that where the stock went up because they said they could have some sort of possible treatment of it the united states i obviously i mean you heard some of the headlines were president trump said that some people americans may not be able to even afford a vaccine but again with this with the shortages we have to come back and remember that the f.d.a. has admitted themselves that any knowledge that even for them it's hard for them to to track the exact amount of drugs that are coming from china we heard last year the director of the center for drug about
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a recent research janet woodcock who told congress quote we cannot determine with any precision of the volume of that a.p.i. that china is actually producing or the volume entering the united states and we know that even before this in 2019 a report talked about and found a shortage of common drugs and even several water ib so there was a contribution even before some sort of shortage before the current. virus but this i'm sure will add on to it as a lot of these manufacturers come out of china. viruses show us anything it's really highlighted our dependency on china brazil how to sort or do the correspondent course want to thank you. and while the entire world is in an uproar about the coronavirus pakistan has another plague on its hand the plague of locusts that threatens its crop supplies pakistan has declared an emergency earlier this month saying that its locust
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numbers were the worst in more than 2 decades the heavy infestation can be attributed to the cycling season of $21000.00 that brought heavy rain and allowed at least 3 generations of unprecedented breeding that went undetected ethiopia kenya and somalia are struggling as well as the super swarms have devoured hundreds of acres of crops already but china is ready to help out with officials on standby to deploy a legion of 100000 or ration stocks to pakistan to help its neighbors fight off the locusts one doc is able to eat more than 200 locusts a day and chinese researchers have described ducks as quote biological weapons being more effective than pesticides ducks also like to stay in groups so they're easier to manage than chickens and they have stronger by taliban forging abilities and resistance to cold which is suitable for survival in the wild a trial is being run in china's western province later on this month and after that the ducks will be sent off to pakistan's worst affected areas it's pretty
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incredible isn't it when you look at some of the simplest ways to deal with this and it's safe for the people who are going to eat those crops eventually the brothers dousing them with pesticides what a great method exactly and the other really interesting quote from china was after the ducks are done eating look as then you can eat the ducks and that will revive the entire economy that way it's providing extra food supply and we sure can i'm sure we'll get e-mails about that but. this time you can catch a boom bust on demand on the brand new portable t.v. ad of him. both the google play and the apple app store by t.v. are 3 months to your t.v. by dialing a portable t.v. app or an apple t.v. on line up by one of the t.v. and by the way a lot of times we're trying to get you good information about the coronavirus you can also find a coronavirus tracker on the portable t.v. app to get the latest news and information about the spread about pirates and of course as always you can check us out at youtube dot com slash boom bust our teeth .
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nuclear become a battleground in the us in vermont people love demanding the shutdown of a local plant. is right now my focus because it's a very dangerous medicare power plant the owner is attempting to run the reactor beyond its operational limit this case just sort of puts a magnifying glass on where's the power in this country where's it going is it moving more towards corporate interests or is it more in the idea of a traditional participatory democracy as are power lie with the people this case demonstrates that struggle in the very real ways. a struggle. in the troubled 19 seventies a group of killers rampage 3 parts of northern ireland that was coordinated
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loyalist attacks particularly costly population tens of thousands were forced to flee their homes and what was striking to put these attacks was that the are you see the police actually took part in the attacks so instead of preventing they were active participants in the burning of the streets in belfast i think more than a 100 innocent civilians with. the review continued and we found out more. i was surprised about the extent and the take rates which the solution was involved in some of those cases the killers would lead to be named clinton and getting i think it went to the very very top i think should it be. the water where politicians you. give the go ahead. i'm going to fulfill the repeated promises possible to the people i promise to be
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there with boycotts. now you want to. know.
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if it's an invalid you let us. today the. story.
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is here. waiting to be reached. the russian ministry of defense has confirmed that turkish troops were among the militants fired on by syrian government troops and it looked province on thursday claims 33 of its troops were killed. if more are killed turkey will give migrants a free pass into europe its officials warn hundreds are already making their way through the country towards the greek border. also this hour as bernie sanders surges in the polls of one democratic billionaire donor tells the party to unite behind anyone else claiming the socialist senator can't be donald trump we'll look at whether the road to the white house is paved with votes but dollar bill.

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