if you want to. know. they. are laying. low in wealth in macross are all things considered i'm peter lavelle the outbreak and spread of the coronavirus has become a black swan event for the global economy it is no longer whether the u.s. and other economies will slip into recession the question now is how deep and how long the recession will last it's going to get worse before it gets better.

crosstalk in the corona recession i'm joined by my guest and live in houston he is president of lipo oil associates in new york we have helen i need ski she is an american journalist with r.t. and in great barrington we cross to pete earley he is an economist with the american institute for economic research all right cross talk rose in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate andrew in houston let me go to you 1st here. the i guess this is the 2nd shock in as many weeks for you because you covered the oil markets and now we have the process being rolled out to deal with the corona virus when we've seen markets crash and we see a lot of disorder and a lot of questioning of what direction we need to go into but there seems to be quite clear that a recession is going to be upon us and very very soon if not we're in it already go

ahead and what are your thoughts. well i think that's right because if you look around the world we have school closures we have industries telling people to telecommute we also have really the shutdown of the economy say like in italy where everyone is staying at home or in spain and we're seeing that spread to parts of the u.s. most notably san francisco and of course the world economy is so dependent on consumer spending travel tourism and you're seeing those industries really collapse and close and of course that is going to lead us into a recession i think not only here in the u.s. but worldwide ok helen it seems to have this kind of ripple effect from 2008 and i keep hearing the words bailout in stimulus and things like that. bailing out who it is that a good reason and what about the little guy what about the gave workers that's what

i really worry about i look at these plans and i don't really see you know where the majority of people going to be devastated by this hour early workers waitress waiters waitresses. amazon i guess if you get to be an amazon delivery person jeff bezos is going to help you out but i mean it seems to me the talk of how to react to this is an echo of 2008 it worried about the rich or not so worried about the poor go ahead helen. yeah event like this really exposes the flaws in the american system as far as well the government is talking about bailing out various industries and whether the financial stimulus will be enough to get these businesses back on their feet but yeah all of these not that it trickles down to certainly the good workers who have absolutely no rights as far as any sort of collective bargaining are demanding or anything they're just sent home and told ok we'll go get a job at another point well very recently people tried to access the unemployment web site in new york city and they were web site crashed because so many people

tried to get on it once to 10000 something employees were laid off at one go and so we're going to see a lot more of this and 3 these people have nothing to turn to they have no unemployment is going to run up very quickly these benefits have been slashed again and again a lot of these people at this low level never really recovered from 2008 so for them it's really just one blow on top of another the industry recovered and industry will always be fine because there will always be people willing to buy these things once the economy is back on its feet but the little guy i mean he's it's a big question well will it later in the program want to talk about the political implications of that to go to peter and great barrington i mean one of the interesting things i actually picked up a couple days ago a book about the bankers and the great depression that started in 2929 and it revealed a lot of the flaws of the economy what flaws are being revealed because you when you have these kind of crisis these you actually see the flaws of the system that is being that is falling apart what is some of the flaws that you see as we speak

as we watch the global economy slowdown go ahead peter. well one of these i see is that we have the ability for political positions just to jump into any time i mean . this clamping down on the entire economy. shows one of the flaws because now we have all this fear and the way that the u.s. and china and italy have attacked this coronavirus issue is vastly different than what south korea did and south korea basically harnessed private property rights they respect individual freedoms and to some extent of course i mean there are quarantines but they've basically they basically have an invention right which is lowering and they've done so by you know your lies in technology and not all these measures of government figure out which are causing fear and we're benchley and we're essentially freezing up the economy right now at a time when it really should be more fluid and there should be and goods and

services flowing and all that you know andrea you started out with talking about how dependent the economies are on consumption but if i mean if everything's closed i mean even if you're given you know this 1000 bucks that everybody's talking about and you won't be able to spend it or it will not you know you won't be able to make it go out easily and spend it i suppose everybody can you know buy food and have it sent to you but you know it's still the you know it's still contract in the economy here i mean it has to deal with the consumption part of it and they're not doing that go ahead and. well i think helen made a good point earlier you know when sang the government really needs to give say a $1000.00 for every individual so they actually can continue and buy food and medicine and fuel over the next couple of weeks because we see so much on the consumption side basically shutting down really it's a health care issue that governments around the world are trying to deal with i

think that it's really there between a rock. in a hard place trying to keep things open at the same time to prevent the spread of disease it's clear that you know the young people millennial people in their thirty's and forty's you know they're in good health they're not going to be acted by this disease but the concern is that it could be transmitted to older people like your mother and father or older uncles and aunts and that's what they're trying to prevent is a major health care crisis you have been hell in a lot of people would say at least in america that there is a min an ongoing health care crisis and this is just insult to injury here i mean watching the the biden bernie debate i mean i i was kind of aghast and how they don't see how that is such an important issue for so many people and that we have this coronavirus and you know even if you get a $1000.00 that's not going to be enough to be able to cover any kind of cost i mean that's the that's nothing compared to the the at least perceived crisis that

we're dealing with right now for the average person go ahead helen. yeah it's and any kind of remedy that they try to push through legally is just going to be too little too late at this point maybe i mean the fact that we don't even have a national paid sick leave of the house is just trying to work on that now it's really insane and yet that debate was kind of a travesty because these people especially biden campaign is so heavily funded by these health care insurers that anything that comes out of his mouth might as well just have the price tag bristling off it because it's these people they aren't working for the the people who would be responsible for letting their working for the health care insurance they're working for the 5 percent of all companies and unfortunately when you have a health care system built to serve the health care insurers in the pharmaceutical companies and the actual patient ends up getting shot and when you have a disease like this where rich people can get it too i mean if this is not something that's just going to affect the poor so really there it's end up coming

back to bite that because you know anything that the workers who are delivering the products that the rich people are ordering because they're in there getting to stay inside and having other people serve them well they can still get the disease so it alternately a health care system has to serve everybody or else even the ones of the pop and of getting suffering if i mean i i everyone knows who watches this program i'm a conservative ok i'm not a big fan of big government obviously but i'm more than concerned when the president be hunted states that saki to private enterprise you know to the to the medical community which created the medical system we have in the united states i mean it just seems to me that you know you're going to people that you know you're going to make them allow him to profit from this crisis here at the expense of everyone else and i'm not attacking private enterprise but i mean the medical system should be to the service of all so you don't have to rely upon it i mean if we had a better system we'll be able to cope with this crisis much easier south korea has

already been mentioned go ahead pete so i agree with you but. what i would say is that the problems our government we don't need more government i gree need more or less license your requirements we need less cotton projections on drugs so the generics come out sooner we need a lot and i mean a lot of. reining in of lawsuits and tort that creates a lot of cost in the medical and in the medical. care system that it is in medicine today so i would argue that the problem is too much government and not not enough ok but still giving it all to private enterprise where they can regulate themselves i mean i see where you're going ok but it's not solving it's not going to solve the problem immediately and do what kind of recession we facing well i think that we're going to see a recession in the 2nd and 3rd quarter is how deep it is is still up for much debate i mean people think that the economy is already contract ing by 5 percent in

the 2nd quarter and you can clearly see that on things like fuel demand with the the airlines cutting their international flights by 75 percent the domestic carriers are cutting their flights by 20 to 40 percent on the road i mean traffic is clearly much lighter not only here in the u.s. and in europe and of road traffic is any indication of. an impending recession you can say that we're going to contract by over 5 percent in the 2nd quarter the question is are we going to be on the road to recovery in the 3rd quarter or is that contraction going to continue you know helen you know i guess i appreciate when and you had to say here but for 2 quarters that's a half a year that is a very long time if you're in the gig a con a very long time i mean for most people 2 weeks is a long time when you have these kind of situation go ahead allan. yeah you have some cities and new york and seattle i know are 2 of them an exam francisco as well

have promised sort of an amnesty an even chance but i mean little laurens are not going to just be nice and decide that they can let people indefinitely not pay the rent i mean i have a massive crisis on your hands unless there's some sort of sweeping just stay on rent payments because people cannot know what he in this country to think thirds of americans do not have any sort of savings 2 thirds of americans can't afford $600.00 for an emergency so i mean never mind for 6 months of emergency rent payments plus healthcare plus whatever other needs that people have there's going to have to be a very serious a reorganization of how people are dealing with this because rent especially if we go let's go in and hold that thought we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the corona recession state department.

thinking of getting a beautiful beach once we got our she. said you know what do you transcend this time you know why are people who use a crate with him he will. freaking out and he will want to see pretty much anywhere near. breeding dogs or caged in the union lane conditions on poppy i mean 67 years you know they've been locked up in a cage outside you see no protection from the weather the heat you know the cold air the rain the snow the funder nothing they have no protection. because you. know it's. across the u.s. crude puppy mills are supported by dog shows and still most of the poppies are coming to these large scale. factory farming kind of operations are being sold in

stores even a good businesses are involved like. there has been a shocking amount organized opposition to efforts to increase the standards of care for dogs bred in commercial rating for so many most of that opposition is coming from agricultural groups and industries that have to deal with dogs don't buy dog. shaped. things. we hear to ask.

welcome back to crossfire where all things are considered on peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing the corona recession. ok let's go back to pete i want to talk about 2 things in this part of the in this part of the program want to talk about globalization and the political fallout here i mean i suppose i sound like a broken record on my own program because i've been talking about globalization for a long time and we've got the perfect storm to talk about it here and supply chains and whatnot i think it's really time to seriously reconsider globalization because it's failing a lot of people around the world and the country that i know best obviously is the united states the supply chains have to be reassessed you have to start thinking

strategically again you have to start thinking about sovereignty have to start thinking about borders again ok and i think that this situation demands all of that go ahead. so i just want to add one quick thing and that is that they are we track a number of economic indicators and at the end of february both are coincidence both are lagging and and leading indicators were very neutral 50 so i think it's very likely that we wind up with this sort of a slowdown the economy seeing a recession the question is whether it's going to be you shape or v shape and. whether spender globalization you know whenever i hear that i hear echoes of economic nationalism and sort of the kind of new america to listen that's come popular with the top administration right now and i'm not sure that the issue is supply chains and all that as it is again the numerous sort of treaties and tariffs and laws about importing and exporting that cause problems it would be great if

there were some redundancy if there were some resiliency villains in the system but again i tend to see the problem as being one of the numerous hoops and legal sort of across requirements that goods and services have to pass through rather than letting individual firms in india and individuals negotiate their own sort of private trade treats ok well i mean ok perfect but let me give people a simple thing i mean don't you think that a country the size of the united states should at least have its own antibiotics store i mean i mean something as simple as that went over 90 percent of it is is in another country that could potentially turn into a political football i mean i'm not an economic nationalism a practical person ok and i don't think it's a good idea to have something like that completely outsourcing see what i mean right so so so 2 quick things 1st of all comparative advantage right we have a reason why things are made another countries and we can't make everything here we should make everything here the other question is how do you decide which needs to

be put in silos what goods need to be stored which don't and we i would also want to know because i'm not an expert in this area but i am an economist and i would want to. oh why is it that 90 percent of our antibiotics come from other countries and may very well be because those are where those are the places that make them best and they're the lowest cost and that they buy other things from us that we make that are low cost again is this is the does this sort of urge to sort of overturn 200 years of economic thought in the last say 10 years and 20 years really since the early ninety's that's responsible for many of these problems ok i understand the economic theory very well ok comparative advantage obviously i understand that but andrew i mean you get down to basics like this when you have a situation where there's huge shortages ok and test kits and things like that i mean it's incumbent upon the government to be thinking about things like that that's why people pay taxes and they still vote ok so understandings pete i i get

that ok but there's a practical side here of globalization go ahead andrew. well i am in favor of globalization and what it's showing you is that normal supply chains cannot cope with a black swan event like a pandemic because we simply don't have enough supplies sitting around and warehouses well you know just waiting for a pandemic to happen if you decided that you didn't like globalization one could think of well where should china sell all their manufactured goods to should each country become energy independent who would russia sell all their crude oil exports to if you're looking at africa which is a very come on to be dependent continent you know who would they sell their their metals to if everyone decided well we want to be on our own and go to the silo approach so i do think that measure of globalization has really helped the world economy maybe some to more of

a greater extent than others but overall when you end up in a silo economy i think the consumer is going to be. hurt and i get that bill and let's go to hell and i completely get i'm not saying we should get rid of globalization completely what i'm just saying is that you have to think in terms of national security health security things like that there has to be a balance there and i think this crisis is showing that you need to have some kind of balance and i think there should be more manufacturing in the united states personally ok those jobs need to come back or have to be regenerated and well paying jobs go ahead. exactly and because now we have a almost completely service based economy and that's exactly what is his hardest artist by this sort of a pandemic because nobody's using these services so. if we had manufacturing it would serve 2 purposes you would have people going back to work much quicker and you would have people being able to make a living and we would have the products that we need so yeah i think what is necessary is a hybrid where we make some of our most important products our most crucial

products pharmaceuticals obviously medical supplies is what's being shown up to be a big obvious oversight here and the other things are stories from abroad especially raw materials and some manufactured goods but some of the necessities at least need to be made partially at home or else otherwise you have i mean it's not like you can just think oh we had one pandemic it's not like it's never going to happen again we can just you know do go back to doing things before i don't think they didn't and on top of that i mean on top of the reaction time being able to get you know kids and tests and stuff like that when you really really need it ok pete let me go to you let's talk about the the elephant in the in the room here politics here i mean how is this being played out here because governments are under stress you know people are just making demands that they act and be held accountable and i think about the upcoming presidential election in the united states is this now a referendum on the trumpet ministration you think go ahead peter. i don't think

that this coronavirus should be a referendum on trump. yesterday's collapse in the market is absolutely should absolutely be laid to trump speed given the fact that he made a press conference where he said all sorts of negative things at 315 in the afternoon and i was wondering whatever happened to doing 8 b.n. press conferences and talks in the oval office but in general no we've had a very rapidly growing economy that growth is time to slow i think the reason for a lot of that slowing in the last 3 quarters of 2019 had more to do with the tariffs and then anything else but the crime rate economies grow they change they get long in the tooth we will as i mentioned before this is best of us slowing lagging and leading indicators are also slowing. so some of this would this is going to come along anyway but the coronavirus is definitely going to be that swift kick that the economy didn't need at this particular time yeah and i mean and i guess i really like what pete said there because i remember watching and trying

speech and they actually showed he had like an i pad in front of a minute said 321 you know afternoon you're absolutely right i was really surprised by that. and to what do you think this is going to be a referendum on governance. well i think what will be a referendum is the trump response to the corona virus and what happens from now or over the next 6 months have people feel that the government took hold of the crisis and things are getting better whether it's the distribution of testing kits or a peaking in the number of new cases that we see and that their sense is that the government actually did something for something that was not their fault if you will the crown of viruses no one's fault then i think you know the the public will tend to vote for trump but if 6 months down the road it still looks like there's a lot of confusion out there then certainly it will be a referendum on his handling of this crisis helen the same question do you what do

you think this is going to be a referendum here because i i see how the left is using it you know and the cable stations i mean this is cannon fodder for them and you know he's the president of united states the buck stops there he's the one in charge and any she asked to be held accountable go ahead helen yes certainly mainstream media will be circling around in their usual like fashion looking for ways to attack him on weaknesses but also some has only himself to blame his value as a president to the stock market when the stock market crashes and you build your entire reputation as a president based on how the stock market was going up and up and up well sure that's great when the stock market is going up but when it crashes you crash with it so he really has only himself to blame if he comes out of this and is unable to beat. it if he'd let me go back to you and in great barrington here i mean what can you see you talk to them about what kind of recession this will be a you were a v. what do you think it's going to be any any guests. gosh i would have to see how it

unfolds but. i think a lot of that depends upon i think a lot of what happens in economy is going to depend upon how quickly in a way the epidemic of the pandemic really of coronavirus. is taken under control if you know we have a vaccine and it gets spread around and there's a tremendous effort to get into people and people you know self quarantine and they take on the steps that they should i think we could have a v. shape recession but if there's more thrown into the mix and you know we wind up with things like. other nations either either more slowly recovering or you know another maybe maybe another strain of corona virus or something else you know a black swan within a black swan sort of speak that i mean i think we certainly could have a long slow recovery it's all going to hinge upon what happens with the corona virus and in turn what governments do to it to address it or it as or it prefer

suited that they take. as light a touch as possible you know and you do think that you know i suppose you know we're going to have to expect that there pandemics in the future can we learn something new can the global system learn something from this experience here i'd like some kind of a better coordinated reaction is that something we should take from this when this is all said and done. well i think that's right i think you know after this has all said and done we're going to look around at what good and bad things governments around the world did in order to handle this certainly they'll be the stocking of more supplies or test kits or ventilators or what people feel is needed around the world in order to cope with the next pandemic whenever that should happen so i do think that after this is over there is going to be a serious amount of study for what went right and what went wrong and whether the

korea model was a good model or the italian model or what should we take away from each of those for the world going forward i certainly hope so because there's going to be a lot of people left behind that when this is all said and done as i mentioned a lot of people low income people are going to have a very tough time even if it's a recession that's all the time we have here many thanks and i guess in houston new york and ingrates arlington and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember.

humanity is on the edge of a precipice thanks to continuing destruction of the natural world. you just seem laid out a lot of bills lots of. losing myself and only to

a few. feet away. from everything you can hold up. for but. i think that all of the war. or the. dealing in the muslim world as a full book you sit around and stuff it and ship them through that disables the movement. of human activity has brought us to the brink of the world's 6th major extinction of it and the people in this film just come take it anymore.

headline story the new york governor pledges from to support health care workers saying it was his budget cuts which led to today's dire of resources. every single agency every single. state. worsens here in moscow city leaders bring in a digital permit system to control travel around the capital the wider region. the u.s. navy confirmed. with mike dean it comes after nearly $600.00 sailors home.