6 weeks ago it's extraordinary and being a historian by trade i know the history of the great depression and depression very well not only in the united states but globally so when i see these numbers come out it's terrifying here how it is you know the dependents will be resolved it seems so matter of question and resources and patience because i just am because i've been locked down for a month now and it's getting very very tiresome. how is this pandemic going to impact the recovery if there is a recovery and i never thought in my lifetime i would ask about is there going to be a recovery because we're seeing such amazing numbers that are just terrifying to the average person frankly go ahead when we are dealing primarily with a temporary supply shock right at the pandemic and so the most likely outcome is of these shaped recession that is a recession that has

a recovery that just as quick at the downturn. you know the virus is eventually going to run its course and when it runs its course most of us are going to return to the to the consumption patterns that we had before will consume the same goods and services and most of us are going to return to the jobs that produce those goods and services but there there are 2 factors that could significantly change that it could change the the shape recession into a huge shaped recession where the depth of that recession the low output lasts much longer and the recovery kicks off much later in the 1st in the duration of the pandemic the longer this virus blasts the more businesses are going to fail and when a business fails the the labor and the equipment of that business have to get reallocated to some other business and that takes time delaying the recovery the 2nd and. maybe

the thing that we have a lot more control over is our policy response now some of the policies that we've been active here in the us they intend to speed up the recovery so the paycheck protection program for example a provides loans to small businesses that keep their personnel and that will enable them to ramp up production as soon as it's safe to do so but other policies other policies look likely to prolong the recession so here in the u.s. we have ratcheted up unemployment benefits by 600 bucks. per week through july and as you said you know record numbers of unemployed unemployment claims right now that just ask yourself if if you were previously making say 20 dollars an hour and now you can make 15 dollars an hour for 40 hours a week not working at all how likely are you to return to work before july and so

you know $20.00 an hour that's $40000.00 a year in terms of an annual salary manny of the people who have filed unemployment claims make less than that and so i think that it's very unlikely that those folks return to work before july. well that's very interesting i think most people do like to work but i think they want to earn more but that's a different topic i'd like to talk about u.b.i. in a different topic is i think it's a fascinating concept and i can actually as a conservative there is a contrary conservative position on that that might surprise a lot of people let me go to victor in beijing victor and obviously politics is playing a role in all of this i mean it's no secret if you watch mainstream media particularly in the united states and how the united states should react and it's quite frankly very anti china in rhetoric here but i mean the there's been this talk over the years of the last 40 years of coupling china within the global economy led by the

united states and its allies and to be frank about that but now we come to this and and there is talk about the supply chains and particularly when it comes to pharmaceuticals and the health industry in general here i mean even if even if there was a political push to change the current reality which i seem very unlikely because these are business decisions and that government decisions then it's a very complicated issue because you have trade relations that are. expect very extensive very deep in the profit motive is obviously there but you come out with this rhetoric now that you know has china must pay much and i have my reparations and all this i mean on one side one can understand you know the frustration it may be correct may be incorrect that i don't think we really need to discuss this here but the fact of the matter is is that trade relations are being

reexamined here and how do you see that moving forward because of china's time extremely well over the last 40 years because of what is called globalization how does that change with this pandemic go ahead victor. well i would say this koran our various will really define history as we understand it and the world of tomorrow will be very very very profoundly different from the world we have being so accustomed to and i think we need to do a lot of rethinking about almost all aspects of life and our work now as for the globalization i don't think that because corona virus will stop the advance of globalization you talk about supply church's role is not built in one day a supply chain is not built in one day if anyone want to change supply chain fundamentally it cannot be done in one day or you was stroked and fundamentally if

you really want to readjust a supply chain you really need to come up with a recipe to advance competitive business to increase spend if it's follow all the parties involved rather than destroying value so i'm a firm believer that the world of tomorrow will continue to see a lot of division of luck a lot of supply chain there will be adjustments but i don't think fundamentally the u.s. government or president trump will be able to read the already and supply chain as they want to because businesses will not buy the story when i do that i really believe it or he gets to crack head that's the point of the program william jump in please do yeah i agree with victor here in terms of globalization you know there's a lot of talk about supply chain diversification right now but we have to keep in mind right that. there's only so much that you can do in the global economy

china's a big player and the idea that we would somehow pursue a non china strategy or something like that is is it's crazy there's certainly in vietnam or. right now they can produce anything that is currently produced in china but they cannot produce everything that is currently produced in china because there are 14 people in china for every one person in vietnam and so we're still going to have a mint division of labor and china is still going to be a very big part of that and then division of labor. well but still and i'm trying not to invoke too much politics into this but i mean it is very much the flavor of the moment because i will be perfectly honest with you as i think because of the way the medical system in the united states exists it was very vulnerable to it to a black swan event like this ok and in a lot of people have questions because i'm not it's up to i mean having

a you recovery would be that would be great news to hear ok but i mean when you think of so much of value that is being destroyed as we speak right now and you think of the consolidation that's going to happen as a result of where a businesses or the ones that or maybe just teetering just you know maybe make might make it might be these what gobbled up by a much bigger player and so as a result of this. recession that we're going through here we're going to have fewer players are going to have more inequality so you know that that's going to make it a very wobbly you and that and that's the optimistic case i would say and plus i'm going to agree with both of you government policy is one thing but private enterprise is another thing and there is a symbiotic relationship between those 2 that isn't it often enough talked about ok because i believe that doing away 40 years of globalization is just insane it would be it would break the global economy but at the same time i think there's going to

be the issue and i want to go to victor here the issue of sovereignty and economic sovereignty and i think one of the things that is a result of this pandemic is health sovereignty as well and these are going to play into this future that picture was talking about go ahead victor well i would say as revealed by this virus pandemic different countries and different regions have different standards for protective masks and as a result of this had that make we realized that these different standards. it's actually served to hinder the effectiveness of the fight against the coronavirus and also to politicize the production and the supply of facial mosques further puts more lives especially doctors and nurses to their risk therefore i think one can actually argue just the opposite that is going forward in the world of tomorrow we

need to have greater internationalization better standardize ation so that the world as a whole can be better prepared against a pandemic allowed to corrode the virus and also in many other respects and in telecommunication media etc which have really played a very important role in helping mankind to fight against the current of errors this time i think in the world of tomorrow we will see more and more applications based on 5 g. or 6 g. going forwards so that way mankind as a whole will be better prepared for all the changes brought about by a big pad that make it like this we need to change but i don't think the equalization will be to make a try and i don't think destroying the current supply chain will be serving any was positive interest at all we still need to move forward beyond the horizon for the

new world and every one of us need to pitch in and the world of tomorrow will be better to let it all means you're pulling me into politics that's not exactly where i want to go but anyway i mean that would mean that the united states has to recognize china as an equal peer and that doesn't seem to be the case ok because the more china becomes appear the more it's demonized in parts of the american media and the american political class because the united states has never had a peter ever and that's something that it's very difficult for at least to get used to particularly this sense of american exceptionalism that i was brought. generations of americans i did it's very difficult i'm agreeing with you china should be recognized as a peer but that something new all right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the global economy with our. financial survival today with money laundering 1st to visit the 3 different.

is a good start well we have our 3 banks all set up here maybe something in your something in america something over the cayman islands or they will pull these banks are complicit in the. poll and say hey i'm ready to do some serious wounds ok let's see how we did while we got a nice luxury watch for max and for stacy oh beautiful jewelry. for max do you know what money you want to hire. for a watch guys record. that is just don't you listen.

to the only thing. they can to see he's good if you don't believe. to take the safe. walk to sit next don't. you take the. sort of the. welcome back to cross top where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle reminder we're discussing the global economy after the pandemic. ok let's go back to william in florida here wellington how do you think the economy's going to change i mean what sectors are going to. flourish and what sectors are going to be maybe make completely disappear i mean how is the job

market changing because you said earlier in the program that we could get a v. recovery but the and we're talking about a lot of jobs in small and mid-size businesses and you know it with every passing day even every passing hour those companies are really much in danger and personally looking at the mechanism to help them through this through this bailout stimulus is it's almost to the point of farcical i mean a lot of these people just can't wait ok and those jobs will go somewhere else or people going to have to retool and i have to point out again i mean something that i dislike the same. this program here is that when you look at millennial this is the 2nd time they've had to go through this ok. you know the maybe the economy can find its way but people are having a harder and harder time in which is you know lives. in a direct injection of cash you know $1200.00 most of that's not going to go to

consumption mo but most of it's going to go paying off debt so i mean is this enough to really stimulate the economy to really get it going because as i pointed out you know with it we're going to have a new consolidation of different sectors where the bigger get bigger and the smaller ones disappear i mean how do we point them don't have a name. well i think in terms of the long term impact here i think they're going to it's going to be relatively moderate so consider it consider the cruise line industry it's hard to imagine an industry that has suffered a bigger reputational below than the cruise line industry and we have lots of recreational turnitin but it's actually not only our cruise bookings not down in the future next year's cruise bookings are up 40 percent over last year's cruise bookings and so that suggests to me that most people just want to get back to something approximating normal now for the production decisions in the

economy firms are going to produce what people want to consume and so maybe some of those businesses are going to fail particularly if the virus lasts a long time or if our policy responses make labor market and flexible but we're going to ultimately end up with the goods and services that people want and so i just don't think that the economy is going to look all that different say 5 years from now once all of this is cleared. you know it just means that as looking at how china is the dealt with this here i mean is it is it is it it's global trade relations going to be significantly altered because we know we before all this happened we had kind of the the baby steps with beijing and washington coming to trade agreements i mean a lot of talk with them not a whole lot has happened in that so it's an agenda that still needs to be played out and certainly far from over and then we have this black swan event here and

again you can't keep politics out of it i mean a lot a lot of people are again i want to go back to the supply chains here where they want to and they want to avoid have having this happen again and we can be very specific you know like and i biopics or something 90 percent are produced in china than are exported to various countries including the united states i mean if the united states were going to you know have a very strong barrier to about i mean and i'm just giving one example here i mean how would china have to readjust and what is it really learn from this pandemic in terms of international economics go ahead. well purely from the chinese perspective it makes more and more realize that the trade war was the wrong war the united states initiated it china had no other choice but to retaliate against the united states and the 2 countries and is up bruising each other if not really getting to each other's juggler to the detriment of the chinese people and the american people

if we can go back to history and restart this again i want to do my best to convince president on trump not to launch the trade war but to really do our best to further increase the trade volume between china and the diamond states so that we the 2 largest economies in the world can better trade with each other with fewer restrictions with little if not no tariffs so that more and more people in the united states business. this is farmers you name it can sell more to china this will truly stimulate the economic girls of the united states now we are stuck with this trade war and this corona virus makes a very bad situation much worse because now we're talking about lives and deaths of the people in the united states as well as here in china therefore i think when the dust does settle down i hope the establishment seeing china and the united states

the intellectuals that issue makers the think tanks will reading a rethink and re goals through all this painful process and pragmatism and realism will be much much better than what have a single ism or your desire to go to the general or against the other side i think going forward we will more acutely realize that this is truly interconnected world no matter whatever you want to do no madam whatever you call walls you want to erect you can a high pay high in the walls the world is interconnected and yet there is and you can look at it i went to trade war and in the case of president drums trade war most of the costs of those tariffs have been borne by american consumers so not only did that make us poor than we otherwise that would have been in the short run there but it also undermined our ability to combat this pandemic even if ever so slightly. you know but william don't you know we have to go back to really

got donald trump elected in the 1st place in 2016 it was about trade ok most people on the left in the liberal media dismissed it is being fanciful but it's not true you go to the midwest where i'm from it's been hollowed out ok it's been hollowed out of industrial jobs and and factories have been shut down and so i mean this again i think this is a moment you could look at it in a different direction not that i'm necessarily disagreeing with you 2 gentlemen here but i can see political forces to say this is an opportunity finally that we have to start a new industrial policy in the united states and not because jobs don't come back you create jobs and you give incentives to create jobs and you have an industrial base in the united states where i think would be perfectly reasonable to have a health care sector that created its own antibiotics for example and you see what i'm trying to say here i mean i i'm not against international trade i mean

a competitive advantage i mean everyone wins that's the theory and that's the practice but if you don't have an industrial base you don't have much to compete with you see my point. peter i am from the midwest as well i grew up in rural southern ohio and i think no one would argue that the gains from globalization have been distributed evenly but we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the gains have been huge and although they haven't been distributed evenly they have been distributed far and wide but but don't take my word for it you know we're all working from home these days and so when you're when you're binge watching shows on netflix it takes some time to watch a couple episodes of the wonder years or cheers right see how life was depicted for a typical 1960 s. 1970 s. family or a 1980 s. blue collar worker and then look around things are so much better today and that's just undeniable and it's not just for the local at least it's not because of i

don't remember the model are down. there not that many blue collar jobs they keep disappearing i mean i would i would have the exact opposite really reflection about what it was like then and what it's like now because the blue collar workers were in cheers and had had a stable job could make a living pay the mortgage maybe even put a kid through school then when that's not happening right now and you have it back then you didn't no one would have understood what the economy is where people were doing 3 jobs a day every single day i mean it's a very different reality yeah it's nice you know it's you know it's going back being looking at a more happy time but even with this entire event with it happening with the economy is that even the get the economy might not be able to respond very well because you know automation ok why do we need to have these people as careers why do we need to have drivers and who are and things like that i think it's a very different reality here let me go to victor here victor i mean how does it

change china i mean there's always these you know if you look at mainstream media there's a certain filters ok i could look at. m s n b c and c.n.n. and they have a certain filter in looking at china and you go over to fox news and it is a very different filter here and not having been visited china i can do not trust any major news source in the united states when it comes to china how is china changed because of this pandemic. well i think china will change more profoundly. mainly because i think the whole nation cannot afford to be complacent and we need to be prepared that 2nd the wave of the infections either domestically generated which is less likely or imported and i think going forward until mankind has developed an effective vaccine probably we need to put everything into 2 modes the normal mold which were more fair with and then the extra ordinary the emergency

mode and we need to be able to shift from the 2 modes at any moment's notice because we cannot put lives on the people at risk that's exposed in the current virus pandemic now going forward also allow me to make one point i think politicians in the united states are back in the wrong tree when they really want to get to the chagga why because the real competitiveness of the chinese economy was not just the cheaper labor cost for example it's that really very much upgraded infrastructure and also you know the brand new all 4 g. of 5 g. and that innovative spirit to move forward so there are lots of things which are happening china today which are on her gulf in the united states and i see this lays the background why it is much better and more effective to do business here in china now if some of the politicians really want to relocate all the shoe

manufacturing capacities toy making capacities back to the united states be my guest but i don't think the american people. it will be better served with that you really need to come up with great eagerness to innovate to move forward to really strike a deal grounds and i theme from the chinese press back to the american people and the american as a country are well positioned to make so many in over innovations and strike new fields of development and i think those are the areas that the americans could focus on more productively and also build up the infrastructure build up in my career you know i know it enabled the american people to produce more effectively. and that's exactly where i want to go william infrastructure i mean how can it possibly be a political issue when the country desperately needs i i've tried before all this i

travel to so many places around the world that we would call emerging markets or in the early in my lifetime we call a 3rd world country and the infrastructure that you see is extraordinary in theirs because these countries that invest in their own people they invest in their own economy here that would solve a lot of problems i think in dealing with this india and inward and actually be part of the process of an international reaction to a future pandemic if you have good reason resources and infrastructure to fall back upon them so i hope that's one thing that will take from this whole experience particularly in the united states go ahead. well in those countries where you have big state owned enterprises you get big state sponsored infrastructure projects but also a lot of other projects that are pretty wasteful and so you have to choose not just the projects you want but you have to choose the project on bills and here in the u.s. you know ok we don't get those big infrastructure projects and maybe some of those projects would be desirable but we also get all the big always projects that you

see in places like china as well and so i think it's a mixed bag with these infrastructure projects yeah we want more of them but it's not easy for the bats which when you want it jobs at a time we need jobs i think you would agree. well we don't want jobs for jobs sake we want jobs because people are producing valuable goods and services are valuable input structure or durable goods that will last and to the future you know when people digging holes and building them up again much better just to let them stay home and enjoy some leisure time than the waste their time producing the things that nobody want to see could have built some new airports and bridges and fix the roads because everyone would benefit and that is well and private enterprise if they question what janet it right we also have to think about the cost though what those resources could otherwise be used for right sure there will be benefits but the relevant question is whether those benefits are going to be greater than the costs ok gentlemen we are going to end the nowhere to see the benefits for working people right that's all the time we have here i want to thank my guests in florida

and in china and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here r.t.c. in x. number of member. of her. thank. you. humanity is on the edge of the precipice thanks to continuing destruction of the natural world. you do seem laid out a lot of good results a group could losing myself not only to. the people it. lets them having you deal.

with and you. got that over the war. or the. only dealing in the muslim world as a little book you sit around and stuff and shit the same thing that disables the. human activity has brought us to the brink of the world's 6th major extinction of it and the people in this film just come take it any more. the stories that we're told to this point are going to seem dated instantly and we're going to have a whole busy new generation of storytelling moving forward our very definition of what a hero is one of no one is what's sass is are all of that changes moving into the

future our whole value system aside shifted and change. russia's president postpones the upcoming 75th anniversary victory day parades due to the coronavirus for the world war 2 commemorations will still go ahead later this year. french teachers and doctors criticize president crones plan to reopen schools by make sure and dangerous. also a french aircraft carrier is the latest nato warship to suffer an onboard outbreak of covert $960.00 general says he's more worried about russian aggression.