about the scale of the threat emerging from the east what you've potentially got is something which while it's less lethal than sars is much more infectious than cells and about as lethal as the 1918 flu pandemic and everyone susceptible to this like they were for the $918.00 spanish flu pandemic so if this were allowed to escape and go to its logical conclusion one possibility one worst case scenario is it could be as bad as 918 so therefore why weren't the alarm bells ringing for policymakers across the western world i will ask that very question later in this program but 1st to of your tweet your messages i'm going to e-mails. we've had a fantastic response to last week show and 1st we hear from mike from seattle who says greetings enjoyed your insightful analysis today on the show gratitude and solidarity with you in this we disappointed in then hear from shirley who says clete explanation by dr hahn explained as to why we went wrong required 1000 and

good to see a planet from dr fabry from malta maybe the scottish government has one it made earlier ready to go for it as advised by professor blanchflower jan says it's been so disappointing to see us follow the tory lead which has been bumbling under nipped at best we've been a well being collaboration with new zealand in iceland both are doing way better than us why we not long on their experiences and successes why are we not leading the way in the u.k. david says the thing about making herd immunity work is that the disease requires between 8 to 10 ways before it can work in the meantime many many people die and we're talking a lot of numbers this disease is going nowhere and a vaccine is a long way off john says the government are clearly imposing the locked and more palatable 3 week chunks when the reality is that this will continue for longer than that scots need to be responsible patient income while accepting the short term disruption for a longer term wellbeing market says ritu alex sort of fresh into the questions that are on a student like thing and computer sponsored to honestly sonia said look forward to

visiting multiple game probably next year and i as malta calls the day before our flight take it everyone donal says brilliant show alex and team very thought provoking a universal income now i would help those that are struggling norma says best half of the week calyx can we do one every day to help us always very interesting thanks norma david says cook is in a scottish parliament stop life getting better in scotland born in scotland they may have been but pictures they are not and finally lorna says really good to have this discussion nobody is talking about the possible exit and the economy. professor human governmentally of university college london was one of the fostex pairs to explain clearly diplomatic difference and the infectivity between coronavirus and normal seasonal flu seasonal flu a few allowed infection interrupted a factor of 10 times a move can affect perhaps 14 people and cancer one case the figure of the relevant

figure the comparable figure for corona virus is 57000 that is how infectious this new diseases i spoke to human gov from the front line of fighting the disease in west london 1st one year one of the people's minds to explain the difference between. their fate to miti a factor of 1.3 of infectivity a factor of perhaps 3 as of the case of corona virus could yes to explain what difference that makes the number of people who can be infected by a single case yes indeed and of course this is the biggest year it's not the fact that everyone who gets this disease becomes critically unwell and darks far from it so mean it's probably between 50 and 80 percent people who get this disease probably don't even know they've had it and get very mild symptoms it's the remaining group that become profoundly gone well and it's a question of numbers so an ordinary flu which comes from seasonally every year

every person will in fact on average somewhere around $1.00 people if there were such a number which means that by the time you get to the nights were tense generation of people passing that on each one person passing it on stats of the number in total when you get the night pass you're passing it on to maybe 15 or 20 people in in total maybe 60 people have been infected. if this virus behaves as it does which is highly ineffective in affecting north of st people per person by the time he gets that 9th transmission that wave is transmitting to $59000.00 people and in total over 100000 people are being infected and so you can see that even if only let's say one in 200 of those dies is that a very very large number indeed and this is really why the only solution to allow the health service to cope has been to limit transmission because there is no specific treatment for this and one hears about chloroquine and drugs and there is

the proof yet the trials are ongoing so currently we don't have a magic bullet to treat this all we can do is take patients who are dying otherwise put them on intensive care units and support them as best we can to allow their bodies to recover which they do in roughly 50 percent of the cases that we are now is missing and that has the lessons lab upon a lot of a simple techniques of payment even though the posture of the paste. pense of care i understand can be quite significant cost the problem why there's very low oxygen levels in the blood is because the blood supply in the lung is often going to areas of the lung where there isn't very much oxygen because the the only the lung tissue is badly affected or the areas that have got good options ply coming in from the outside don't have much blood supply and that's known as ventilation and a fusion mismatch you're giving blood to the wrong dates of the loan and for various reasons you can improve that degree by allowing the patient on their tummy

and we found that actually we can do that very early on so patients coming in with level extra levels now even on arrival in the most and see department and on the wards we are suggesting to these patients that they lie now on that chests essentially in a sort of modify slimmest position say one arm above the heads one arm down by the side and they do that prison on as they can to. right and that does seem to improve oxygenation and allow us to get away with less aggressive treatments at that time when people are put on ventilators or machines that do the breathing for them on intensive care pretty much all of them are now needing to lie in this prone position so between 168 and 18 hours of each day. that has its own problems it's not the healthiest thing pressures in our lives become a government pressure on faces and it's not a comfortable position so these patients are paralyzed with drugs and heavily sedated. and it's very hard to get them to improve so

a lot of our patients are still spending 16 to 18 hours a day in this present position even after 2 weeks on our intensive care units. a little weak efforts of yourself and your colleagues their national health service of not being overwhelmed in the way that many people fear of the staff of the earth out of 8. how is the situation where for potato acquittal and where it has been well reported as a major scandal the people are being sent on to the front line with the proper equipment how is that been resolved the press of a government well because it hasn't as yet and the course this is. said to say that the n.h.s. has managed to cope thus far but it's largely being to do to the heroic efforts of the british public to be honest the fact they've taken the lockdown so seriously that has flattened the wave as they say turned a tsunami into

a much longer slower road are but the burn rate on materials and resources has been huge so most hospitals are in trouble with the numbers of pumps they have now we're running out of the filtration units the things that are used for a kidney support when kidneys fail and indeed for the fluids we're running short of the sedatives and i'm ascetics and paralyzing agents and this isn't just britain this is worldwide every country is facing this sort of challenge because the production and supply and distribution of these drugs wasn't good for an event such as this and it takes time to ramp up so it's a it is a real challenge we are beginning to try to work out even today how we're going to get around this is it possible to wash and clean equipment to use different sorts of clothing and so forth. but that's itself can have challenges one of the ways in which this bug is most readily spread is in actually taking off the clothing where just the act of shaping the fabric can release the virus so we're going to have to

develop new patterns of working if we are going to start reusing this protective equipment rich i suspect that we are 1st mcgovern the key emphasis has to be on par . blick health at the present moment there they are guys ation to stop the spread of the virus until such time as there is a drug therapy available which can make a crucial difference yes or indeed in fact until there's a vaccine because until there is a vaccine this disease will continue to spread and will in fact pretty much everybody that hasn't had the disease until we get up to this thing called herd immunity where as enough people to make transmission between patients or between members of the public very much harder so this is going to continue to spread until a vaccine appears or until the bulk of people in the population of contracted the disease and the only way as we say that we can cope with this is to shoot the most

vulnerable and kill a large number of the public have been infected and the disease is ample harder to transmit but also such that there are the a trickle of patients coming in in a more continuous fashion rather than a tsunami of patients hitting us in which case the health service can code and this is going to be a real challenge to any politic she anywhere in the world and we've seen this in japan it managed to lock down very hard aggressively suppress transmission of cases at that now because there isn't very much herd immunity it's coming back in massive force and this will apply to any country that's managed to suppress the virus when they lift the foot off the brake it will spread like brushfire again so the trick can to we get a vaccine will be to try to take one's foot off the brake sufficiently to allow can people to contract the disease but not in such numbers that the health service in that country can cope but then of course it's only 5 weeks. in the u.k.

of the we're holding the cheltenham festival where for 100000 people grouped together or their 6 nations rugby were for 20. frame supporters across had been. rather obvious things for what with level the infectivity of this condition it was at least woodstock that sort of event taking place for the foreseeable future well indeed and of course it is the it is worth pointing out facts that the social isolation as well but the distancing measures even when people are together make a massive difference so when i'm in the hospital obviously i have to work with colleagues and outside we're not swearing p.p.s. well we were in the precursor protective equipment is when we have it is a red zone with patients but we maintain a 2 metre distance from each other we don't pass each other on stand wells when we're doing handovers the chairs

a position to be to meet the park and other we wash our hands regularly and frequently whenever i see an alcohol gel bottle or sink on washing my hands and by doing that it makes infection exceedingly difficult to contract so the instance in my own hospital has been very very low indeed and this applies to the general public if they do it once the lockdown is lifted a bit if they do maintain that suit meet a distance if they do continue not to shake hands if they do wear masks not to themselves but to prevent coughing and transmitting to other people in asymptomatic phase and if they wash their hands regularly all the time because whatever they touch may have been infected and if they themselves are asymptomatic they can be spreading the disease that way that in itself makes an enormous difference the 1st one and finally with a spinny and she have had on the far away married to your your vast academic expertise on the subject if you had one lesson to deliver to policymakers around

the world given the experience of the vicious condition what would that be in terms of how they develop the policy. we've got to put this i think in a much broader context of the way in which we're treating our planet if we try damn rain forest decide that we can see eat exotic meat and cattle to get everything from snakes bats pangolins with chickens and dogs in markets spaces and then everyone thinks it's their right to fly around the world as often as they like wherever they go then there is no hope for us because this will continue we have to start recognizing that the planet is itself a vulnerable that we are biological organisms as part of an ecosystem on it we need to reconsider completely the way in which agricultural creates trait the way in which we manage our natural resources and the way in which we travel because these sorts of behaviors supporters to this point and they will continue to do so again so the world needs to rethink how it behaves and also to learn to paid

a great deal more cooperatively as we are learning to do now unfortunately sad times and a great deal more cooperation has been before and we need to make friends not enemies 1st my government for west london thank you very much and good wishes to you and your colleagues thank you very much like having me. coming up after the break i will speak to dr chris smith the cambridge foot ologist who runs the naked scientists podcast. the world is driven by a dreamer shaped. thinks

. we. ask. welcome back at the beginning a family dr chris smith the vol just from cambridge university who forecast very clearly the extent of the coming few days today he joins me from the village of boddington just a few miles outside cambridge. dr chris murphy from the information we have today both in this country and of course internationally what has surprised you about the nature of this virus the speed with which it appeared and then spread

and then spread through society and the impact it's had you know i've been giving lectures for more than a decade on emerging infections these are infections that are newly appearing in the human race or used to be confined to one small geography and of suddenly started to extend and spread across a bigger range and so i was fairly familiar with what could happen but it's even taken me by surprise you know the scale of this the economic impact of this and the psychological impact of this i never knew what it could be like to be confined to my living room and now i'm finding out santa don't like it how course in your estimation are we to wards the drug therapy which can make a difference. well drugs take a long time to make especially new ones and the current estimate is you're looking at about 10 years and $10000000000.00 and i don't mean $10000000000.00 tries i mean $10000000000.00 in some cases and if you ask most people in charge of pharmaceutical companies they will tell you that 90 percent of their ideas fail so

they've got about a 10 percent success rate so it's a rule of tens here and so it's not exactly easy to deliver a new agent with a new drug and against a new virus we've known about for just a matter of months this is a very tall order it's not impossible but a very tall order so what people are doing instead is they're saying well are there any drugs that we already have which we could repurpose now the basis of this is that all drugs have side effects and sometimes just by chance you find that a drug that you made to treat a totally different condition just by chance happens to hit this new infection or this other disease and cure it as a side effect this is called repurpose ing because if you can take a drug that's already on the market it's already been through safety trials we already know how it performs we know how to handle it safely it's much faster to take that existing drug and create a new use for it and that's exactly what doctors and scientists are trying to do

with this new coronavirus outbreak they're exploring a number of avenues but again these things do take time and they're not guaranteed to work it's not like your tayla making an agent like you would with a new drug so all all cards are on the table no cards are off the table are you and your colleagues at cambridge are part of that effort is a genuinely international effort to fight and that sort of. yes both what's amazing is the way that this has galvanized and brought together the scientific community people are sharing data the deluge of publications and information and science coming out every day is impossible to keep up with there's so much of it and the whole collaborative feeling of people working together to try and find a solution is really heartening really heartwarming a really exciting and cambridge university many universities doing this but i'm really reassured and boyd up by the fact that they've taken one of the one of the biggest departments in the university and one of the most powerful with a really big headcount and basically repurposed what that department's going to do

and made its main focus dealing with the coronavirus and that means dealing with understanding how it makes people i'm well it means dealing with understanding how to treat it better with possibly finding new drugs and also possibly pursuing vaccines as well so there's some really bright people from across a range of different disciplines all working on this and it's really amazing to see how universities are able to in this very agile way change their focus to to deal with this so i'm kind of reassured because we've got some amazing scientists in this country and some amazing doctors and so we're really well placed with some of the best universities as well to take this on and i think it's really bringing people together. and despite the amazing scientific b.s. and the extraordinary efforts of those in the last full health service the death rate unlimited taking them per head of population is 5 times the germany and 50 times that of korea the least differences all lie in the realm of public health

imho the intercepted the virus or are there any other explanations for example genetic or population fight no cards are off the table people are investigating and pursuing this actively you've got to be careful though with any kind of comparison that you're really comparing apples with apples and this is one of the frustrations various countries are testing various people in various different ways in various amounts and generating data and it's very easy to say well this is what germany have done and this is what career of done and this is what britain of done you must make sure that the denominator is the same germany haven't tested the same spectrum of their population that we have for example so germany knowledge that they have tested a very large number of young healthy fit people a significant component of which were downhill skiers there are not many older people who are with multiple health problems going downhill skiing perhaps a few but not many so if you go and test lots of people who are otherwise fit and

healthy and they're low risk you're going to report an artificially low rate of death what we do need is testing to find out who's immune and this is what's coming next it's proved a bit of a frustration for the government i think because it's a very new virus it's very hard to make really good tests that work reliably and work at the kind of level and scale that we're going to need but that will be very valuable because then we'll be able to tell people who is and who isn't immune and then we can begin to decide who can safely go to work and work with patients or work with say older more vulnerable people who at the moment might be reliant on a carer to bring them shopping or to take care of their day to day needs and that cara could also bring them coronavirus whereas if the. kara's known to be immune then that carol won't bring them corona virus so it could be that we can use a test like that to help people keep people safe while also exploring other avenues such as a natural herd immunity approach to ending this lock down a dog to smoke on the spot of the family i'm unfortunately for your forecast was

for all to correct them terms of the dangers of the virus i must put you on the spot again what do you anticipate happening as the guards the drug therapies and treatments that may write to our rescue when do you think given the knowledge we have at the present moment these will become viable lemaire to come to humanity's rescue in terms of a vaccine it would be wonderful if we had a vaccine that we could very quickly produce produce at scale and by scale we're talking billions of people are going to need to be vaccinated if we're going to stop this thing and we need a vaccine that will work quickly and a vaccine that will be very safe that is an incredibly tall order to produce in a matter of months some people who are suggesting will have one by the autumn well i really hope they're right but talking to the vaccine experts and for all just that i've been discussing this with they are not optimistic in either my they're talking about at least 18 months maybe longer and to produce something of that sort

of scale is a really really tall order so what's the plan b well i have a very sneaky suspicion that what we're going to have to do is some kind of staged deescalation of this lockdown which is going to be informed by understanding where the virus has circulated most in the country where it continues to circulate most in the country and this will be informed by testing both antibodies showing who's immune and who isn't and who's currently got the virus and i suspect that what we'll do is come up with a way of driving a degree of of natural herd immunity while safeguarding and shielding those people who are most at risk in society so that we arrive at an end point where we have enough people who are immune to stop the virus circulating appreciably. or treat people without the need for enormous amounts of p.p.a. or go and look after elderly people in care home residents so we're not putting them at risk but we can at least drive that immunity we all need because i just can't see us getting out of this any time soon if we don't resort to some strategy like that i don't think anyone can foresee it being possible to do multiple lock

downs and then reductions in lock downs because all you get is a boom and bust situation as we're seeing with other places like hong kong and singapore and i don't think that that unpredictability is any better for people than the present situation the economy certainly wouldn't take that dr chris murphy from cambridge thank you very much indeed and best wishes to you and your colleagues thank you very much thanks for having me this said the global flu pandemic of the same chillier goal of the so-called spiralling flu i actually got very little coverage at the time one theory is that the spate killing up to 50000000 people it was difficult for people to rationalize the deaths of 4 mentally fit young people in the aftermath of the killing fields of the 1st world war. though these things are entirely different thanks to 24 hour modern media the new

killer virus was well known about everyone even before mab's from one province in china the psalmist no policy maker on the planet who can claim an alibi of lack of knowledge or information about the coming future and faced with that challenge it should be said that a number of governments east and west rose to the challenge and the results of very clear to see south korea taiwan germany new zealand molto iceland the pharaoh islands each of these countries and each of these governments have been the only ways managed to keep the killer virus bay and they have employed rocket science they've all followed in terms of their own suckle stance is the world health organization of christ to test test test face trace trace and as a result of monies to suppress the killer virus no doubt they'll continue to try and do so until such time as a vaccine on a therapeutic treatment writes to humanity's rescue other ministrations of failed

them failed utterly perhaps the case italy was overwhelmed before the virus was clearly understood that the snow is chris for the governments of belgium france of spain of the united kingdom and above all perhaps the united states each of these administrations failed to act until the virus was spread throughout the communities and the high casualty of the death rate among the populations as a result that is not to the current under way and anyway those in the front line in all of these countries are the people in the health service the caring professions who are making superhuman effort to stem the tell of tide but to continue in the fresh water water analogy these people are the lions will being led by donkeys. it is to be hoped no that the same governments having failed to stop the spread of the pandemic but all of whom possess extraordinary resources will know dedicate these

to planning and a rational way out of the the grip of the virus and it will also fund our scientific based on the international effort required to find a vaccine or a therapeutic treatment and above all a house will understand the a many millions across this planet whose governments neither have the resources even if they have the results to tackle the virus effectively it's only through that collective effort that will avoid 'd millions dying of corona virus in 2020. or so from cosmina myself in the west of the team it's good bye for now and we'll see you next week.

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minutes. welcoming our viewers from around the world live from central london this is our to u.k. . the british government is on the increased pressure to publish a lockdown exit plan off to the scottish 1st minister announced her own country's next steps for easing restrictions that's amid warnings that tens of thousands of businesses are on the brink i'll be talking to an economics textbook very shortly they say. the un announces the 1st recorded case of the virus in a lebanese refugee camp the palestinians from 2 fears about what outbreak among the displaced. we'll be hearing from middle east correspondent shortly.

counter terrorism officials warn the us will supporters up looking to take advantage of distracted and overwhelmed security services to attack hospitals and radicalize those looking down at home. and also the over $100.00 opposition politicians called on the government to introduce a universal basic income to avoid a much deeper economic crisis when lock down and it's. one months on from britain's coronavirus lock down the 1st minister of scotland has published a blueprint for easing restrictions despite westminster's refusal to reveal nationwide planning that's as politicians warn that tens of thousands of businesses are at risk from an overly cautious approach after the chief medical officer said social disruption could last until the end of the year he said and he joins me now

with the nation's whom the studio sturgeon's in effect to westminster again yes it would look as if the scottish 1st minister has taken the initiative when it comes to potentially a post code vid's well now we. no that just in the last few moments the daily death toll figures have come in and they represent the latest 24 hour period with $616.00 people sadly losing their lives in the u.k. in hospitals after having tested positive for covered 19 that's a total of $18738.00 although we understand of course according to the office of national statistics that number of those who have died could be significantly higher now as 'd we were just discussing the scottish 1st minister nicolas outlining what she said was a key plan whereby once the peak has been reached with regards to carbon 19 certain

lockdown measures can be reversed careful balances will have to be struck for example it may be that certain businesses in certain sectors can reopen but only if we can change how we work to keep employees and customers 2 meters distant from each other similarly with skills question is may have to be redesigned into a low social distancing so maybe not all children can go back to or be at school at the same titan's some limited outdoor activity might be able to restart earlier than indoor activity but let me be clear big gatherings and events are likely to be off for some months to come. now the scottish government have released a document outlining what their exit plans are for the country that's in contrast to the rest of the united kingdom and they say that there would need to be a new normal and easing measures would only happen when it's safe to do so they also say that the country must avoid being put at risk of another outbreak if they

are to lift those restrictions and that would involve extra testing and also outlining that postcode 19 the aim for the scottish government is to create a sustainable economy and a more equal society now and has received support from pop surprising quarters the former chancellor george osborne stating that the u.k. government should be following scotland suit and not treating the citizens of this country like children and should be telling them exactly what the plans are post coded lock down now we've also been hearing in the past few days from the chief medical officer chris witty who says that vaccine will have to be developed and until that point has been reached and certain social distancing measures up to remain in place. in 2 we have those and the probability of having those any time in

the next calendar year are incredibly small and i think we should be realistic about that we're going to have to rely on other social measures which of course are very socially disrupted as everyone is or is finding at the moment but until that point that is what we will have to do and it will have to be the best combination that maximizes the output it's going to take a long time and i think we need to be aware of that. our course one other concern for the u.k. is the economy with several businesses suffering in the british government as well as state and if they are to link a leak if they are to lift the lot damages that they've imposed certain measures will have to be met including ensuring that a 2nd peak is reached well of course these are you mentioning businesses that these knock down measures are taking a toll on businesses throughout the country absolutely we've seen figures from the office for national statistics and they've stated that far a quarter of businesses have stopped trading and that. those they were

temporarily closed or halted trading altogether and we also know that a very small fraction 0.3 percent saying that they've stopped trading permanently that number is expected to rise if this lockdown continues much further just over 80 percent of companies say that in the creative sector say that they've had to stop trading for the time being 60 percent of companies say that they are still trading but not at the normal levels that's 66 percent there meanwhile over again 60 percent of companies say that they do have enough financial resources to get through this period but of course nobody knows how long this lockdown is going to last and that's still a significant amount 40 percent said that they don't feel that they have the resources to get through this even with the government helping out where it can

with grants and support for the follow scheme. thanks very much indeed for all of that to discuss the impact of knockdown on business i'm now joined by economics expert professor patrick wynford great to see you today professor the government is claiming it is following the science concerning these knock down measures surely saving lives is the priority at this stage but we've only just reached the peak. well the science is actually much more controversial than the government is letting out and out of course it hasn't yet got the information about how many people have been infected and how many were symptomatic which is crucial in assessing this business of herd immunity and that's really quite a big gap in the whole planning mechanism the fact that i haven't done any proper surveys of who's got it and where and that's really vital because it's all very well saying that lives come 1st but of course lives are being lost the whole time

in all areas that of policy you know when you look at transport on the n.h.s. itself where there's this calculations about the value of lives and we don't just in general close down the economy when lives are lost we have to have a balance between you know the costs of to the economy and and to people's lives through truly economy. and and actually taking risks with with diseases and things like people going on roads and killing themselves i'm not these things are part part of the economic policy scene at the moment the government has let itself be be kind of impact ailed on the hook of lives must be saved absolutely whatever it takes which is which is not a very logical position to b.n. and they don't really know what the government is but yes sure but the governor is taking a short term approach to this bearing in mind what you say because the measures outlined by the government will keep businesses going for at least another month so

that there is a good safety net measures are they not we don't need to rush back to work immediately. yes but the the issue is the cost of those and how how effective they can be in terms of keeping the economy going i mean the longer you you go down this route the worse the damage the economy becomes because what what's happening is that quite a lot of businesses will go under the longer this puts pressure on them to survive i mean as you said in your report they can survive for a bit but we don't know how alarmed and what what the damage will be and as the thing goes on for longer the damage becomes greater it's a sort of non-linear really of ever greater damage what along the way the government is propping up business as the chancellor has actually been widely praised more sides of the political spectrum 80 percent loan guarantees that seems fair yes well with all these sorts of measures the main problem is that

ministration of the 80 percent may have caused quite a lot of or a kind of a jam jamming up the banks because the banks are trying to check you know whether they can get the other 20 percent and that's that's caused delays so this is one of the problem is about these very great generous bailout procedures is that it's true that it's being done but who's going to fall through the cracks and will they survive that's that's the biggest you because you can't actually save everybody by these mechanisms because human human administration being what it is they aren't completely full proof just quickly nicholas sturgeon is she striking the right balance businesses planning to open with social distancing measures. that sounds quite sensible to me and if you look at sweden that kept everything open and pursuing social distancing by responsible citizens that seems to me to be

a much better way to go forward and if scotland is moving that way i say all strength to their elbow and may may they give a good guidance to the u.k. government to do the same and just one final thought if the lockdown does ease significantly by the beginning of june could we see an economic bounce back. generally because this is a unique recession this is really a recession brought about by got much it stopped so it's completely unique if government flows do something the moment it opens up. a business will well get back to normal it's government that's stopping it that's the irony of the whole situation professor patrick linford very very good to talk to you today thank you for joining us live here now to. aid workers and lebanese health officials have begun testing refugees for the virus alter the 1st case in one of the country's camps was identified as according to the un's body for

palestinian refugees who warned the cramped conditions could lead to a wider outbreak for more on this we can now go live to our middle east correspondent paula slim paula this is a very worrying development. and certainly is what we know is that there's been one woman a palestinian refugee from syria who has tested positive in a camp in the eastern bekaa valley of lebanon now there's some 3000 people who live in this camp and we are hearing from the united nations relief and works agency that looks after palestinian refugees that the woman is currently being treated at a hospital in beirut and that all necessary precautions have been taken now we know that yesterday at 146 people were tested at that camp including people that the woman had been in close contact with and we are hearing from lebanese officials that they want to for the same kind of health care to palestinian refugees as they afford to ordinary lebanese citizens lebanon itself has $682.00 confirmed cases

and $22.00 deaths that include a palestinian living outside a camp and 3 syrian citizens now lebanon if you remember as a country of some 5000000 people this is in addition to tens of thousands of palestinian refugees and their descendants and also at least 8000000 displaced syrians. the concern of course is what is happening in these camps now there's a lot of a crowd noise is unhygienic situations and there's been a lack of testing the concern being expressed by humanitarian workers as if we could see a pandemic break out there and even further afield the worst affected country in the middle east and one of the worst affected in the world is iran iran is reporting $86000.00 cases and 5400 deaths now also on wednesday egypt extended its state of emergency for another 3 months and this affords the egyptian president sisi sweeping powers in which he is able to suspend schools and

universities and also insist that people returning from aboard go into quarantine egypt reporting $3659.00 cases $276.00 deaths now if there's one country that's starting to lift restrictions across the middle east that is jordan particularly in the south in more in more likely populated areas there it's lifting of the restrictions and also because of be no cases of infection reported there what we're hearing from jordan in terms of the statistics is 435 cases and 7 deaths so certainly what we see is that in some areas life is starting to return to normal but it's still too soon to say whether this pandemic has been beaten or whether or not the region should be bracing itself for a 2nd phase paula thank you very much indeed for that update that's paula's live there well let's have a look elsewhere across the u.k. live for the latest according to official government figures over 138000

cases of now been confirmed in the u.k. death toll now stands of over 18700 with 616 more people having lost their lives in hospital in the past 24 hours. well the 1st minister. says that northern ireland could emerge from social distancing restrictions sooner than other parts of the u.k. it comes as the n.h.s. wales chief executive warns of a possible 2nd or even 3rd peak despite the rate of new cases that stabilizing and for updates from the rest of the world the figures are as follows well according to johns hopkins university as you can see it connects worldwide days of the death toll has a past 184000 over 2600000 have been confirmed to have the virus and that's as over 720000 have now recovered donald trump a suspended immigration green card for 60 days in response to the country's soaring

unemployment rate media reports that north korea's leader may be very unwell after undergoing surgery and sparking speculation around possible successes and germany has seen more protests against knock down restrictions as one rally is demanding the right to gather in groups. still to come of this hour counterterrorism officials warn i still supporters are looking to take advantage of distracted and overwhelm security services protect hospitals crowded with coded 19 patients. opposition politicians called on the government to introduce a universal basic income to avoid a much deeper economic crisis when you look down at. the be.

seems wrong. just don't call. me. yet to shape out just being educated and engagement equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy confrontation let it be an arms race off and spearing dramatic development only personally i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very. time to sit down and talk.

european leaders are back at the negotiating table albeit remotely via video link for another round of discussions on a package to address the economic impact of the pandemic an agreement already approved by finance ministers is expected to be reached on a 500000000000 euro lifeline for the bloc but deep disagreements between certain member states could still derail the talks but the final hurdle is one of the has the details but we can expect out of these talks low is some statement some result at the end this is an aftershock michel the european council president said he wouldn't be pushing for a joint statement from all of the heads of government which proved to be such a problem last time after italy said there was no way they were going to put their

name to a statement that they were they were they had come to what we are expecting though is to hear something coming from this meeting it's often said that the e.u. doesn't agree on anything until it has to but it's really getting to the situation whereby it really does have to come to some form of agreement in fact we heard from the euro group president just recently he described just how dark these financial times potentially are the i.m.f. confirm that we are facing the worst economic downturn since the great depression this calls for urgent and decisive action was again a lot of talk about north versus south in europe the harvest and have nots economically southern countries like spain and italy have been the hardest hit in the continent from covert 19 what we heard from the italian prime minister just sepic conti is this piece very keen to warn his friends in the north that if italy

suffers financially ultimately they will also catch that virus as well our economic systems are connected with each other and interlinked when one country has problems it triggers a domino effect and that's. one thing we should absolutely avoid what's needed here is the european union's full firepower namely through the joint issuance of bombs well the spanish prime minister. chairs this also backed that bond issuing scheme and in fact himself and just said because they have talked about the princely sum of 1.5 trillion with a t. euro worth of bonds being issued in order to aid fiscal burden sharing across the block sanchez was quite confident about an agreement being reached on thursday 'd because it would appear a bit out of the european council must welcome the economic package agreed by the euro group demand to finalize nation of its preliminary works but it's a good old instruments are ready by no later than june the 1st this is the key to

europe and this is the key to our country well the main opposition to corona bonds as they've being called comes from the netherlands and from germany although angela merkel the german chancellor has well perhaps somewhat warmed a little more certainly been seeing 2 of warmed a little more to the idea in recent times however in the past she's been very clear that the only way the only a packages that germany was going to give its full backing to were those mechanisms that already exist instrument the kind of i can imagine since you know the down the line more generally i would like to say that germany not only wants to act in solidarity but that it will act in solidarity well the german chancellor has been addressing the bundestag on thursday morning she said that germany could only do well if europe is doing well and she talks an awful lot about solidarity there is she addressed the german parliament we'll see if those words coming from angola

merkel in the bundestag on thursday morning turn into well it german attitude changing towards corona bombs and debt sharing across the block across the e.u. that is in the wake of the coronavirus. counterterrorism officials are warning that eisel supporters are looking to take advantage of distracted and overwhelmed security services to attack hospitals and other vulnerable places we're seeing the exploitation of the circumstances to encourage acts of violence isolation makes us a big grievances that make people more vulnerable to about the killer's ation such as financial insecurity or social alienation the extremists and radicalizes know this and as ever will look to exploit any opportunity to lead those people into harm often using topical issues as hooks to lower them in counterterrorism police

worry that social isolation may lead vulnerable people to radicalization and other forms of grooming and isis has taken advantage of the situation the closure of schools and other statutory agencies is led to a decline in the use of prevents support services but they say that doesn't mean fewer people are in need of a more on this i'll be joined by the former head of the national counter-terrorism security office that's in the next hour. hundreds of opposition politicians have called on the government to introduce a recovery universal basic income which they say is needed to stop the country forming deeper into an economic crisis when the lockdown comes to an end we are urgently calling on the u.k. government to prepare for a recovery universal basic income in response to the coronavirus crisis we are likely to face a damaging recession as well as ongoing economic insecurity that will affect all of us as we are likely to exit locked down in a non-uniform way at an uneven speed the system simply won't be able to keep up

with people's individual changes of circumstances. the letter does not propose a specific amount of money but sources suggest that payments of $50.00 pounds a week could be appropriate and would mean a total cost of $75000000000.00 pounds a year the united states has brought in a similar scheme to the value of $1200.00 for many americans but only a one off payment that's as spain the 2nd worst hit country is set to become the 1st in europe to introduce a universal basic income earlier this month the chancellor really soon that rejected calls to introduce a basic income insisting the current universal credit payment is appropriate but campaigners warn the benefits system is not ready for the post lock down crisis it comes after the system faced one of the half 1000000 new applications for universal credit in the past 6 weeks making the demand 3 times bigger than usual.

and one other story for you not related to the pandemic a group of men just arena bombing survivors has been denied legal representation at the hearings inquiry chairman's john saw this deliver the ruling after deciding the victims are not considered core participants i fully appreciate that this application is born of the desire of the survivors to ensure that the reasons for the attack are fully understood the adequacy of the emergency response is examined and that lessons are learned after a great deal of anxious thoughts i have decided to refuse this application i have concluded that they will be able to contribute to the inquiry without core participant status and i strongly encourage them to do so. $22.00 people were killed and hundreds injured in 2017 after salma a baby detonated a suicide bomb at an ariana grande a concert in the magister arena and

a group of $56.00 survivors including doctors and retired police officers requested the opportunity to play a key role in the public inquiry hearings will investigate the deaths but the solicitor solicitor representing these survivors says this ruling is going to hamper the inquiry. the survive the victim families we represent a very disappointed they will not have the same rights and access to the inquiry as other cool participants such as the police and government they will not be able to play a call participant role in the inquiry and they believe that the investigation to learn lessons will be limited as a result. and that's it for the moment i'll be back with more news in half an hour .

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this is the one business show you can't afford to miss. in washington coming up markets remain low as oil tries to quad back some of its recent loss that and more high profile companies move toward declaring bankruptcy and. urging the 2 american tax giant to privacy rules will explain what most want. to be today so let's go and dive right in. the coronavirus global that told top 182000 the number of infections at more than 2600000 director of the centers of disease control and prevention robert redfield warned a 2nd wave of the copa 19 could be much worse considering that it would likely.