concerted effort is no answer because yes that requires resources. to vulnerable were abandoned on the streets to become the invisible. afshin rattansi were going underground 48 hours after civilian killing u.s. backed israeli airstrikes on damascus and as british prime minister barak johnson regains power in london the epicenter of what set to be the worst coronavirus death to capital hit country in the world so far coming up on the show what price is a human life lost a coronavirus restaurants and government appears to think it is 60000 pounds we talked to former president of the u.k. faculty of public health professor john ashton about why so many nurses and doctors are dying on the so-called front line is u.k. and u.s.

backed is the misuse coronavirus to propagandize against the west we speak to the author of a new book about the rise of the u.s. u.k. backed islam is a true one of its lesser known figureheads the anti communist firebrand of donna has another place to be in the 1980 s. if you saw terror around the world there's new york texas and california all the civil coming up in today's going underground the 1st u.k. prime minister barak's johnson's 1st full day back in downing street was marked by revelations his government has been deliberately inflating the amounts of life saving equipment available to doctors nurses and cleaners on the front line against corona virus a pair of surgical gloves was considered to be 2 items of p p and this came just as johnson's health secretary matt hancock offered $60000.00 pounds pay off for dead frontline n.h.s. staff joining me now from cumbria in the north west of england is the former president of the u.k. faculty of public health president ashton john thanks so much for coming back on so how gravy. is the situation right now because the u.k.

apparently faces errors incompetence isn't malfeasance all on the part of bart johnson's government well i think you know we're looking at errors of commission and mission misleading communications not least with regards to things like the numbers of deaths and insisting on early presenting the hospital deaths not including the current home deaths or the eleanor states that are fully and keeping us in the dark about what's going on in the prisons which also seems to be cooking up as an issue so i'm very bothered about this there seems to be an early erosion of troops and the general feeling that you know we don't know what they're saying they're not being straight with us even though i'm trying to ski said you couldn't quantify media bias you mentioned there the apparent mismatch of

death rate do you think the government is deliberately minimizing the death rates the same parent mismatch between the japanese own financial times estimates of 41000 plus deaths and the complete often quoted and continually cited 20000 odd death figure here in britain i think the government has heard chance of the chance to demonstrate that it was going to be straight and open with the public and this thing about just giving out the hospital deaths each day and making nearly efforts so in not just the deaths in curbs but the deaths in people's homes that are taking place because people are not being referred to hospital and it's very likely that the total amount is somewhere between $45.50. and.

i think that one of the time this is over we could be looking at between 580-0000 deaths the government should be straight with us about this but specific me you don't think it was deliberate to double count p p a pair of gloves to pieces of p.p.a. or it was deliberate to take people from hospitals with corona virus and put them in care homes without them being tested and i think one of the basic kind of propaganda tricks is to use numbers without making any real comparisons so you know we've seen it over and over again the government saying they've been you know commissioning all or securing so many millions of items it just sounds like a big number but unless you can translate that us into saying that each health worker has so many sets of p.p.a. a day or there's the p.p.s.

change piece it between saying one patient and seeing the next patient it's meaningless it's totally meaningless so all they seem to have been doing is just wanting to give an inflated big number because it sounds like a lot and it really is treating the public as children to behave in this way while another big number arguably perhaps the health sector about hancock thought it was was 60000 pounds to the relatives of dead frontline national health service staff you've tweeted that there is a comparison to be made perhaps behind the scenes marriage between 60000 pounds the families who've lost a family member to corona. setting aside that it doesn't say whether this will be taxed or the arts the comparison i would make is that each member of parliament $650.00. 3 of them have been given $10000.00 pounds to help them work

from home that's 6 and a half $1000000.00 if we accept the figure of $100.00 deaths of health workers and social care workers so far $60000.00 pounds times $100.00 is $6000000.00 pounds so that's what they think they're worth there we think they're worth the same as giving the members of parliament presumably tax free $10000.00 pounds each to help them to work from home it really is pull all it's you know and apart from the fact that they seem to be refusing to make any real accounts how many health workers have actually died i was hearing yesterday that in one hospital in the london area there has been 10 deaths of doctors and nurses and then another hospital outside london there have been 8 if that's the sort of thing that's going all around the country then it sounds as though there's many more than

100 or even maybe 200 health workers in front line workers who perish because of the incompetence of this of the management of this pandemic well while there have been complaints about the $60000.00 not being paid as as is normal in the n.h.s. a pension or bereavement payments over time because obviously $60000.00 is not going to pay for every family and they and the children ongoing usually do welcome the fact that it appears the british government is not saying the 60000 is conditional on indemnification of boris johnson's ministers who are later maybe criticised for negligence or their future public inquiry and i haven't seen any detail of this. 60000 pound figure so it's very difficult to know what it really means and bearing in mind. health workers who die in service who been

employed presumably from probably about 2 years or something will be entitled to a death in service benefits anyway they've the issue as being people who come back and perhaps from retirement or from you know not being working regularly to meet the need or the this time of crisis and that group which may not be a huge number of people to offer them the families this compensation other big number of course is the 100000 test said day a self-imposed deadline by the health secretary mad to hang caucus is that another example of this attempt at what you seem to be saying is public relations over public health well i think it's sleight of hand each time i mean we saw last week and sophie ridge trying to pin down michael gove on this 100000 about whether this

is 100000 capacity or whether it's 800000 tests actually turn and the prime minister himself heard indicated earlier that seward 50000 was what he was after which seems to have been dropped but it's my own view that to get the country back to work and support tax credit line health workers and to shield other people as well we really need to be doing maybe 3 or 400000 tests a day people who are out and about working and people in the front line probably need to be tested each week and there's no sun stood here it's just again these big numbers that they throw around without explaining what it means in fairness durbar struggles $250000.00 pound failed char get here of course previously said he shook hands with corona virus infected patients in hospital but then if you're talking about transparency would euro. command that the results of operation or exercise

cygnus the 2016 pandemic exercise be published now because one of johnson's ministers in the past 24 hours said she wasn't even aware of what operation sickness was particularly and grab the foreign secretary said that he didn't spring to his mind where the key scientific advisors had the conclusions that were made after exercise cygnus showed that the n.h.s. could not cope properly with the influenza pandemic i think if the reports on operation sickness from 2060 which we're being told identified a lot of weaknesses in our pandemic planning if that's had been in the public domain while parliament was sitting there and i think there'd been a lot of pressure to make sure that we were adequately adequately prepared that the contingency planning was in place that the saws of people testing and all of that

was probably turn it's interesting you know this of this question of not being willing to cut this documents piers morgan a long morning britain made the point that we're not fighting the nazis we're fighting a virus there's no reason why this information should be secret everybody needs to know what the what the homework is that lies behind recommendations under device so that it can be properly discussed and critiqued you mention a few broadcasters here in britain but not the british broadcasting corporation the same mandated b b c do you think they haven't done so well apart from the expose of panorama which you were part of which showed. grave incompetence i mean you personally i understand complained to be made about to the faculty of public health are you being targeted yourself and you. being banned from the b.b.c.

well it's a big question isn't this and me not what i would say is this after my appearances on newsnight and question time in the middle of march my invitations to the b.b.c. dried up more or less completely and and i had a point minister to be made and then i was stood down at the last minute and i've had but small sympathetic gauge woman from sky regularly and channel 4 and i've got reason to believe that you know the b.b.c. is under pressure and it's something which i've heard from colleagues of mine and have been reading on social media i worry about the state of the b.b.c. in this political environment and just finally what threats to n.h.s. staff very briefly because they just staff have been threatened we understand with talking to the media we haven't been able to find one medical practitioner who was

part of excise cygnus who can even tell us about the secret conclusions well but you know during the last 2 or 3 months i've done a lot of media interviews and i've been told repeatedly by journalists newspaper journalists i don't live media you know as of the difficulty they've had in getting interviews not just with clerical workers in the health service but with my colleagues directors of public health that i've heard through them that they've been instructed that they have to have anything they wish to say to the media clear which is against the tradition of public health public health is a discipline which has been to to speak up on public health matters of interest and it is a freedom that was fought for for a 100 years during the victorian period under stablish in the u.k. about the right for public health people to speak out on things they were both the

president last and that their. thank you after the break with us u.k. linked isis dyess in syria warning calling scripts the gates travel to europe because of coronavirus we investigate the legacy of the u.s. funded inspiration for osama bin laden and how decisions by russia's mikhail gorbachev turned al-qaeda into a global force to be reckoned with posable coming up about to going underground. seemed wrong. but all wrong just don't call. me you won't believe yet to shape out of disdain to come out again and engage me because betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground.

economic system known as capitalism has generated more wealth than any other system in history in many ways it is defined maternity itself hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty however capitalism has also witnessed growing income inequality the appeal of socialism currently on the rise can count. welcome back in the past 48 hours israel one of britain's top markets for weapons areally bombarded civilians in syria and while boris johnson has not been repeating his support for bombing the country british commanders have told recruits to steer clear of europe because of coronavirus little trump more reluctant to attack

damascus is this week said to retreat from the u.s.a.'s longest war afghanistan maybe read the care of abdullah azzam in the rise of global jihad which details u.s. support for islam mists and the life of one particular communist to come by the anti semitism with hatred for che guevara and marxism we caught up with the author of the norwegian defense research establishment dr thomas had gamma and i began by asking him about the continuing threat of terrorism as coronavirus kills many more than any i jacked plane the global jihadi movement is still alive and well i mean we've always had been through a period of the 56 years of incredibly high levels of activity especially in the middle east but also in the form of terrorism in the west with 6 to 700. people killed in western countries and although i says is much weaker now than 2 or 3 years ago there are still many groups out there that are

active and. even isis is still hanging in there well thankfully there were reports that day i should told there are operatives to deliver europe one of the epicenters of the pandemic who is a dollar as he met with osama bin laden in indianapolis in a 79 when the us was funding what would become of course the group that destroyed the world trade center on 911 so abdullah azzam is not very well known in the west because he died early died in 1909 but in the world of jihadism he is a superstar he's basically that che guevara of jihadism he was a palestinian religious cleric who is famous for mobilizing the so-called arab afghans in the 1980 s. and these were basically foreign fighters who came from all over the muslim world to fight with the afghan would say he didn't against the soviet occupation and this

afghan jihad in the 1980 s. is basically the big bang of the jihadism it's at this point in time that the movement really expands and goes international and. played an extraordinarily important role in making that happen or get on to his hatred of jacob are in a 2nd but was he on the cia's radar intelligence services radar because you say the from 1901 he repeatedly traveled to the united states he traveled to new york texas california seattle in washington state and he came to the united states to to preach against the u.s.s.r. that's right so i think that as arm was on the cia's radar. he certainly was in the late eighty's because i've spoken to some of the cia operatives who were in. pakistan at the. time there is no evidence that the cia

directly dealt with him that they supported him with money or armors or anything like that there is a there's this sort of famous this sort of narrative about the afghan jihad that it was a kind of a silly mistake that the united states did they kind of they created al qaeda and then al qaeda hit them back this is the so-called blow back theory but that's kind of that's a very gross simplification because the cia didn't support bin ladin or azzam or these these foreign fighters who became al qaeda what the got what the u.s. did was to support the afghan mujahideen and they did so with lots of money and weapons but no resources went to the to the people who then founded al qaeda so the blowback theory is a little bit misleading in my view but at the same time you can understand that

there would be people in the united states who could favor him he authored a book i understand it called the red can. a not only anti semitic but i think communist tome full of tropes against marxism and so forth he got into trouble that he for. communism from palestinian authorities that's right but in america he operated completely freely the united states was in the 1980 s. perhaps the world's most hospitable recruiting ground for jihadi s. and that's because. the u.s. government basically didn't care about people going around recruiting and mobilizing for the afghan jihad because they were supporting the same effort they were on the same side as it where we have to bear in mind of course also that at this point in time nobody you know realized or had really had reason to do to

see what was coming. there had been no sunni islamist terrorist attacks in the west until that point and nobody kind of. had an inkling that you know foreign fighters these sort of war volunteers might one day become become a problem and this inspiration for a large and he he hated moscow he hated che guevara views that align themselves with reagan's foreign policy say in nicaragua or or in el salvador of dollars arm like many other islamists at the time and before that so in the in the sixty's and seventy's and eighty's they were very hostile to communism or even all forms of sort of secular leftism this islamists hatred for communism you know was of a different kind had different sort of. a different origin than the one we would

find in the in america or in europe at the time it had very little to do with geopolitics it was seen much more as a as a kind of a cultural threat as a basically a neck and of a challenge to the sort of indigenous values in the middle east which the islamist thought should be based on islam and communism came with explicit secularism and was therefore seen as a as a threat to them which obviously was a feeling in your liberal countries use the allegation that the cia created as it were al qaeda as you as you were saying earlier so the u.k. you say. basically they help with weapons rather than actual direct training i mean there were reports here of training camps in northern england for al qaeda for you it is the supply of weapons more than in the great creation directly by the cia of al qaeda yeah i mean there is no ever. ns of western intelligence services

being in direct and sustained contact with arab fighters in afghanistan but it's it was not the afghan mujahideen who later went on to attack america outside of outside of afghanistan that was al qaeda and the the arabs for example i have him on the record as saying in the late eighty's that you know we're here fighting a war against the soviet union but really america is the greater enemy but of course. there is an element of blowback here too because some of the afghan mujahideen later become became vicious enemies of the american troops in afghanistan so for example someone like gelatine how county received support from the cia in the 1980 s. and the so-called hakani network became a lethal enemy for the u.s. military in afghanistan well according to many the network

in the book is a problem today how big of a morale boost was it when mikhail gorbachev. we drew his troops withdrew the russian troops from afghanistan was that really what paved the way for the success that those in al-qaeda later would say was the events of $911.00 yeah it was a huge morale bus is probably the high point in the history modern history of jihadism they've defeated a superpower and they were they felt that they were now ready to take on all these other you know enemies of obvious lom that's kind of ironic as far as the foreign fighters like bin laden are concerned because they didn't do very much in the. victor soviet union it was the afghans themselves who expelled the soviet union not not the arabs but still people like bin laden kind of they going to use or appt

that victory but i think i would say that more important cause of kind of al qaeda rising and going international was that of dollars zam had basically undermined. the ability for any leaders in the islamist movement to control these jihadi group groups when he wanted people to come to afghanistan to fight he told them come and wage jihad don't listen to anyone don't listen to your parents or your local in months just come and fight jihad and in saying so he basically undermined authority in islam and what he what happened was that groups like al qaeda then went on to do more radical things international terrorism suicide bombings against civilians. and nobody could control them it didn't matter any more was the moms or religious scholars were saying they just wouldn't listen to them because they had been told not to listen to anyone. well there's been

a lot of allegations about british united states' involvement with islamists in syria today can you just tell me how u.s. aid was somehow used to spread jihadist propaganda this is when bin laden and we're travelling to the united states school books printed offering anti semitic and jihadist propaganda and yes this is a different element of the us a this a than the americans or aid agency was indeed. used. in the afghanistan war to. basically provide military or at least non-lethal military. support this happened by the way on all sides the publications you mentioned earlier there was another initiative. and it was actually it actually involved the university of nebraska they were

basically hired to. provide school books for. afghans during the war and were designed to kind of stoke the soviet. sentiment in the afghan population and this was a u.s. government initiative one of the united states are supporting the would you have been in afghanistan and gorbachev was giving a morale boost to jihadists by were drawing soviet troops from afghanistan china of course was backing pakistan and of course we all found out the official explanation from washington is azzam of bin laden was found and killed in pakistan what happened to a builder as on the 24th of november $1809.00 why was he killed who killed him so that day dollars arm was on his way to deliver the friday sermon in the. so called

arab mosque and push our and just as he was pulling. off the main street to park in front of the mosque a bomb went off under his car killing him and his 2 sons and it remains the biggest murder mystery in the history of islam as the pakistani authorities did an investigation but the findings were never published and there was no kind of clear candidate and the mystery remains unsolved to this day so i've called this incident to the john f. kennedy assassination of the islamist movement my prime suspect is the pakistani intelligence service i.s.i. . but i don't have solid evidence and i'm open to the possibility that it was someone else so we'll just have to wait and see if any kind of new information comes out in the years and decades ahead thomas i gotta thank you that was dr thomas had gabber in the caravan abdullah azzam of the rise of global jihad

is out now that's it for the show will be back on saturday 9 years to the day u.s. special forces assassinated the u.s. backed al qaeda leader osama bin laden and his son khalid both living here pakistan's top military academy in abbottabad until then wash your hands and don't forget to join the underground you tube twitter sound but instagram and facebook. backstabbers financial survival guide. housing bubble. oh you mean there's a downside to artificially low mortgage rates don't get carried away the times report. this it's like a horse race where it's like a marathon there are 200. countries more than 200 participants in. and the question is which technique place out to save most lives

and companies because it's a matter of saving both. welcoming our viewers from around the world live from central london this. britain prepares to see an increase in the number of coronavirus for tendencies but that's to be included in the daily count that says they've been lead to secure star my challenge is the government to publish a lot exit strategy i'm joined by the president of the all the g.o.p. royal society of medicine the. data scientists in singapore say britain could see sue the 1st wave of credible respond a tourist from an expertise from the city that carried out the study.

the pandemic could result was 18000 extra deaths from cancer in england due to delays in diagnosis and treatment that's a form of w h o advise and cancer specialist tells us that britain should begin lifting some of lockdown restrictions from next week. austria. came out of it we came out on the 14th 2 weeks ago today fantastic and there have been a 2nd surge of infection. but also the report compares the scale of the viruses because only 4 out of the great depression nearly 100 years ago hear from the group behind the report. written as daily coronavirus death toll is expected to rocket after the government

and that's tennessee's would also be included in the figures opposition labor leader secures stomach demands number 10 publish a lockdown exit strategy it was dusty joins me now live here in the studio so shall you tell us how the death figures are nell being measured while there is no getting away from it really that there has been mismatches and discrepancies when it comes to the official death toll. and that's because the government's figures do not include deaths outside of the hospital the city by and large the government has a different method not methodology of collating all of the data but they are looking to update the way it handles the figures but as you can see in the last 24 hour period there's been a jump in the united kingdom of 601 deaths breaking that down 83 in scotland wales with 73 deaths but was still waiting on northern ireland to release any figures but for quite some time now the government has been under increasing pressure to really

try and amalgamate within that session of death toll the number of deaths in care homes as well they are many critics argue there's been too much of a focus on hospital deaths leaving behind the elderly leaving them forgotten they were dark you not to mention of course over the last week we have seen a huge spike in deaths in care homes but environment secretary for the government denies that the care deaths have been over not in any way shape or form no i don't accept that it was a lurch but obviously there was a real focus on the n.h.s. because there were concerns that it might be overwhelmed and we wanted to make sure they had absolutely everything they needed now the government has even announced that all residents in care homes and in these stuff will all be able to be tested for corona virus even if they're not showing any symptoms at all. and showed you the labor leader he's demanding no the government should really publish some form of exit strategy yes absolutely that's the argument from securest of the labor

leader in today's prime minister's questions today it was a de facto prime minister dominic rob who was taking the stage really in place of boris johnson the prime minister of course drugs and he himself has been fighting a personal battle with covert 19 he has returned to iraq however today his fiance kerry simmons has given birth to a baby boy both of them of course suffering 19 she herself suffering when she was very very heavily pregnant indeed it's understood boris johnson won't be taking his paternity leave just yet he's wanting an eager to get back in the driving seat to handle the coronavirus crisis but today as i say rob standing in his place taking some very difficult questions from secure starmer who wanted to focus mainly on the united kingdom's death toll in his words he says that they are truly dreadful numbers he believes that they could even be under-estimates and think that the united kingdom is on course for being one of the worst affected in the whole of

europe but he also today paid particular attention for the need for the government to publish an exit strategy or at least come out and show an idea of what a road map could look like post lockdown. what i'm asking for is the government be open with the british people about what comes next that's crucial for 3 reasons we need to trust. secondly the government itself the public schools businesses trade unions need to plan ahead and they're saying that loudly and clearly 3rd and frankly i would like to transport the government's strategy but we know what it is i think it's important for us to do so if we can we can't do that if the government won't share its thinking the prime minister said on monday that he wanted maximum transparency well look when the 1st secretary give us some now and tell us when the government will publish an exit strategy based on the advice and the evidence that we had from sage which he said he wants to closely follow it would be very

difficult for us to responsibly set out those proposals before we've had that subsequent advice from sage both on the rate of infection the death rate but also the measures that would be responsible to make a match why with the greatest respect and i understand he's trying to be constructive we can't be pulled in to making proposals in advance without sage a point so sage the group dynamic rob is speaking off as a group of different scientists looking at marketing and statistics they're looking at what can be done to really reduce the reproduction right now that is the spread of the virus their idea that main aim is to keep it as stable as possible so dominant rob today ready just in a holding position waiting for that advice from saved but mostly waiting for boris johnson to get back into the driving seat. thank you so much for all of that swell to discuss this further i'm joined by president of epidemiology and public health section roll society of medicine dr gabriel thank you very much indeed for joining us now shadier mentions sage there and you've called for more transparency we

should know who's on the pill and of course how much input advisors such as dominic cummings have. oh absolutely i think it's occupies such a central position every time a difficult question is asked of a government minister they say they're following with scientific advice and yet we're not allowed to know who those advisors are or bought out of by says it and it keeps going round in circles all the time i think what we do know is that the advice they're getting is not public health advice and it appears from the list of expertise that. the secretary of state provided to the commons science committee or balance provided to the commons science committee give a long list of expertise but not public health and this is if it is anything is a public health crisis right ok but despite that if all this is done in the open

can impact on the quality of the advice given it and it can't be given. openly and transparently that some of this really has to be done behind closed doors i think there are some times when discussions have to take place between the advisors but if there are competing issues that they need to sort out they should certainly be able to do that but as we know this committee is not a met behind closed doors it's got 2 of the dining straight political operators have been attending and it has a wide range of people from other government dejan season from the civil service so there are already a lot of interests in there and i can't imagine. that that is really the right way to be producing advice even if they advisors work from the right scientific backgrounds which some high i dart on the death toll we are going to shift from hospitals towards care homes where the situation of course can only get worse how

do you see this now unfolding oh it's a terrible tragedy and so many lives are being lost and i think back to many of. the things that are being said over the last. 8 to 10 weeks about the importance of shielding your members shielding the elderly and vulnerable and in cocooning was mentioned that none of that appears to have happened and we are not of the got this torrent of deaths in care homes and nursing homes and real concerns about the health of the workers as well and i think there must also be concerned about care workers in the community who are going from house to house provides help to elderly and vulnerable people and that is another amazing opportunity for this virus virus to spread and all of this taking place against a background of no testing in our communities no tracking darnley the virus and eradicating it and also of course talk about lifting the lockdown is it too soon to

even consider the ah i think it's way too soon. and one of the reasons why is we've got the list of 5 tests that don rob produced or lived in lockdown but w.h.o. as produced some days earlier than that 6 criteria for removing restrictions or easing restrictions that countries should consider and those 2 lists are not compatible and someone really needs to sit down and find out what is necessary but for now there is a restrictions can't be lifted also it doesn't have it's not an all or nothing saving so there are things that can be eased quicker than others and i think some of that should be made public as well. again all the way through this it almost seems as if the government is hurrying and trying very hard to catch up catching up

on mass testing and backstopping mass testing catching up on mass gatherings catching up on restrictions. and not catching up on carol's nursing homes and again catching up on what the next step is or just funny briefly talk about mass testing promised 100000 tests by the government by tomorrow actually will those tests make any difference because these are added in test and they develop people have it out that should be rolled out right at the start of the crisis the emphasis now is to find out whether we've had the virus your thoughts finally on testing well i think there is a role for antibody testing that is testing survivors of the virus to make sure that had the virus checker they have us but it's a very limited role and it was all over played enormously overplayed that key thing is the number of tests that we are doing and the other key thing is where they're being used so we're really not testing to the n.h.s. staff to care or workers and other key workers is great but it's not the sort of

case finding. testing contact tracing and in isolation program that we badly need in communities the length and breadth of the country and that requires a big mobilization of people and a big mobilization of the testing facilities and there is no sign of that yet but that is what has done the job in many other countries and i don't believe we'll eradicate this virus without doing that to gave risk ali thank you very much we really do appreciate time here on r.t. kay thank you. those are all the 1st wave of all the u.k.'s coronavirus pandemic could be over by late august that's according to data modeling research from the singapore university of technology and design. predictions claim that in the u.k. 97 percent of the total expected cases of covert 19 could be revised by the 17th of may the 1st wave could feasibly and by august the 22nd using the same model the

university also estimates the u.s. could hit the 97 percent mark by may the 15th but the 1st wave wouldn't be over until september russia looks set for an earlier finish 97 percent of cases could be realized by may the 23rd and the 1st wave could be over but august the 7th and in a similar vein india could see the end of its 1st wave as early as the 2nd of august on a global scale the current phase of the crisis could be over by the 1st of december but we must caution of course that these are only predictions but earlier are joined by an associate professor at the university that carried out the research jaish e low and he elaborated on some of the methodology is used be only recently started to do the production figures because of them to do that available so we actually use that data to train them are critically regrets and keep parameters in the model and then we use that trying to model the total and lifecycle and also and with that cycle we can you can map it together with that actually creates this to estimate

where we are in our you know it you know life cycle of the pandemic and also estimated other key dates which translations supposedly we are expecting a 2nd wave are we but will it be a lot worse or would it be not as bad. so the current model is a one stage while it's natural of modeling am predicting multiple waves together it's a suitable word and the conditions for example that this is real war scenarios like government politics the moment behaviors don't change and remain a say an innocent trajectory than their predictions will be rather than to predict their trajectory this century gentry if one of those conditions or conditions dramatic to have changed there will be likely to see the 2nd wave worse in a survey of people we have to use the data for individual waves to feed them up so we have the early sites quite well what i've been doing actually is a predictive monitoring we continue to monitor the actual pieces together was a prediction is because we know that it will work scenarios are changing we can not

just make one sharp prediction and when to see whether it's reliance or much know that's not what we're doing we're actually more agreement the predictions the predictions are supposed to change if there are a real war changes you know in the government policy human behaviors. still to come of this delays related to the pandemic resulted almost 800000 extra deaths from cancer in england as a form of w h o advisory council special schools for the lockdown to be lifted next week we'll hear from him later this hour. and a report predicts this is a changes to our global economy with effects of the virus to last for years we hear from the group behind the paper.

economic system known as capitalism has generated more wealth than any other system in history in many ways it has defined maternity itself hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty however capitalism has also witnessed growing income inequality thus the appeal of socialism currently on the rise in capitalism.

we go to work so you straight home feel. free. to. the corona virus pandemic could cause a large increase in deaths from cancer as patients avoid tests and hospitals delay treatments research by university college london and the health data research arm

for cancer says that almost 18000 extra deaths from cancer could occur in england with in a year due to the pandemic it could also lead to at least 20 percent more deaths in newly diagnosed patients over the next 12 months it also found a 76 percent fall in urgent cancer referrals from g.p.'s and a 60 percent decrease in chemotherapy attendances compared to virus levels that says cancer expert and former w.h.o. advisor professor carol sykora says that britain should start lifting the lockdown from this coming monday he says schools pubs and bars should be open by the end of may if there is no spike in the number of cases the government is not yet published an exit plan despite demands from the opposition when i was joined by the man himself former director of the cancer program and professor of medicine at the university of buckingham carroll sykora and he told me that we do need to lift them up down to concentrate on other diseases. it's like

a dam you open the dam the water flows out and floods the valley and it gushes down and we can't cope with all those patients who are going to have to work related to the evening and or weekends around the place to do it involve the private sector there are all sorts of ways of of getting round it but it's got to be done quickly the calculation of university college this morning it's about right that's contingent on maybe just a 6 week delay if it was a 6 month delay let's say there's a the virus just doesn't go away for a long period of time we have to keep hospitals working just on cue bid we're going to get stuck again on a 6 month delay could cause 50000 deaths from cancer so we have to try and get moving and can you reassure people that it is safe because the government says that treatments can start up again there are indeed adverts calling on people to see their doctor if they suspect anything is wrong. absolutely it is safe and now we've got the testing ramped up you know it's going to be difficult for our health

ministry who promise 100000 tests by tomorrow the end of april if it doesn't reach that number that's not that the absolute number doesn't matter it's sustainable testing to identify those that are coded positive and should have put in isolation before they go for treatment those who are negative go into the cancer treatment for surgery and the other cancer treatments we have available people should be put off from going to hospital now you have one legions of fans on twitter for presenting the coronavirus data in a more positive way but of course the daily death rate is still high and was certainly not out of the woods why are you giving that level of optimism the death rate is artificially you know it's not really as quite as bad as it seems 1st of all every day sadly in britain $1700.00 people die so it's the difference really those that would have died anyway and those that died with because of corona that

really makes the difference and if you take the pure people that have died actually of corona and that's how the german figures are presented it's actually forming quite markedly and now to actual the government decided only yesterday at the care home figures to the total deaths were they thought they were so the curve is not dropping very precipitous rate because you've added more deaths from the care home is just how the figures a hand or i think within the next 2 weeks will be coming out of it and that would just be great and then you indeed are advocating that the relaxation of the knock down but of course and then we hear about the possibility of a 2nd wave a 2nd peak later in the year. well you know a lot of gloomy people around i was they get pretty mellow just a terribly gloomy it's true that's certainly a possibility but we look at other countries we look at china it was south korea that all went up to that now we look at austria czech republic they came out of it we austria came out on the 14th 2 weeks ago today so it's fantastic and they have

seen a 2nd surge of infection we're going to monitor it that's the key chast and monitor and look at the number of new infections i suspect we're going to get away with it in all these countries now and i really hope so for the benefit of cancer patients that it's all part of the same thing if we can't get rid of corona we're not going to be able to start effectively on cancer cardiac disease and other owner says. tests have been seen as the golden ticket to ease in the lock down but there's still a long way to go in order to prove they'll be effective in halting the spread of the virus and bodies are made in the body to fight the virus and can be effective in providing immunity against future infection but writing in the medical journal the lancet some sense of caution that governments must have a deep understanding that the bodies and how they work in relation to the virus they expose say that this is no certainty that antibodies will give protection

against the disease or how long they might last well for more on this we're joined by one of the authors of this paper in the next hour. for not from the pandemic could last for 2 years with subsequent waves of the virus adding to the current economic damage and that's according to a report by the institute of economic affairs which says that government must be prepared to invest to get through the crisis claims the pandemic is moderate when compared to historical plagues but it doesn't mean the impact is any less serious it expects world economies to experience a severe drop in g.d.p. this summer but the turmoil could see an acceleration of changes in how we work already seen in innovations such as online shopping or remote working however governments will also be faced with a large bill with a global debt crisis likely and a period of high inflation to follow it also states the crisis will see governments move away from further economic integration with global economies well the report

identified intensive farming as a source of the transmission of a new disease triggering a future pandemic it added that the development of vaccines and tests could be accelerated relaxing existing regulations the e.a.a. also called for more robust health care systems and changes to adult social care provision. well to discuss this further i'm not joined by a member of the institute for economic affairs dr richard wellings richard good to see that your group is predicting a retreat from globalization that's not good news for the u.k. government's plan for post breaks it global britain is it. narry systems and obviously you want a great title to choose from bracks it will straight trade with the rest of the world's elite into more inexpensive goods in consumers out secularly collaring kinds nonetheless i don't think so it's research and there are several states in there not a big deal but she seems wrong to regulate in the economy or spreads which is

exactly what it needs to recover some distress and then interesting in there because many people might think that better economic integration and global corporation is the answer after all diseases don't recognize borders so why should our preparations. where we are in a promise or a station so certain sites are you close one station in the sense there has been a piece of cesar's spread or if you know this and that mates are clues very subtle searches just in times distance and it's very long and often there are bits of hundreds of. syrians are all every day they eat currency so they're very obviously very short of meat and at least we don't need to stop it actually the towns are just lost and governor says it wishing ill sue far in the sense of subsidizing these long supply chains and richard the knock down has enforced a mass trial of sorts as an in your approaches to employment such as remote working

what long term impact could that have is this sort of new approach to working here to stay. i think serene obviously immediately it will be just where the house but in the longer it's an obviously people is not alone since you have some of these on one 3rd mistress and so you didn't call you know so i won't list could have a huge impact example on the trans spectrum so if people don't know it's going to be a star marriage they did it only to travel down slipped into big scenes then what is the state so these big projects like a just a chill even an even less sense you cover a lot of aspects in your report and you highlight the need for quick of vaccines and diagnostic testing. regulations then what can be slashed that could speed up development but of course ensure safety. i mean it's written a letter well received and discussed where it brought forward secretly absolutely i

think going it's been 70 years but nonetheless all this red state has slowed down the use of medicines for example when there are barricades she said all syrian its 1st officers become in my experience and make something special should star search i think it was let's take a sort of precious i just took a well at red tape bureaucracy administration whatever it is it is actually needed that tom dick or some might think that your organization is is using this crisis to push for a light regulation business well. when a.l.p. change you know your role in regulation and me a common sense under certain circumstances not paid if you're being chased by the private search so for example you say yes. i want some of the websites are a keeper you have risen but you sometimes hear is in your mind to hear the state government which i'm writing layout. but i was up it's up by

a group jaish but only rorts are based or prints the price because they were just very states. dr richard weddings good to talk to on this thank you very much indeed for joining us live here not he can't and that's in a moment more news in half an hour including the government's daily coronavirus press briefing. as the u.s. economy was booming growing numbers of people were made homeless. you can work 40 hours 'd in a week and still not have enough to get housing everybody believes america still has the lead up to the reality of we're not financially equality and the lack of affordable housing living minimum wage give many people no choice. that's been

a problem with the city voters turn around and told to stay away almost. requires. the most vulnerable are abandoned on the streets to become the invisible cops. hello and welcome to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle the economic system known as capitalism has generated more wealth than any other system in history in many ways that is defined maternity itself hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty however capitalism has also witnessed growing income inequality plus the appeal of socialism currently on the rise in

capitalism work for all. across talking capitalism i'm joined by my guest geoffrey tucker in new york he is editorial director for the american institute. economic research in los angeles we have piii and he is an independent economic and geo political analyst former commodities trader and strategic planning advisor and in indianapolis we cross alexandra hudson she is an independent scholar writer consultant and speaker right across cycles in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate go to pi 1st because i one of my rules on this program we always go to the person that got up early is that you got up really early for those programs and i'm very much appreciate.