tv Boom Bust RT April 30, 2020 10:30pm-11:01pm EDT
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a show you can't afford to miss i'm french born in washington coming up following dismal numbers for u.s. economic growth europe has followed suit taking a major hit as we go over 19 outbreak continues to weigh heavy as we discuss the impact of the pandemic on different sectors how are sports fairing we do a deep dive on the subject of a packed show today so let's dive right in. and we leave the program with more concerning economic data out of europe the eurozone economy contracted by 3.8 percent for the 1st quarter of 2020 this marks the biggest drop in g.d.p. for the 1900 block since 1905 according to the european statistics office euro stat the e.u. economy had expanded by point one percent in the 4th quarter of 2019 and of course contraction is expected as the krona virus pandemic continues to wreak economic havoc but it should be noted that lock downs in the e.u. did not actually start until early march of 2 months before those lockdowns took place weighing heavily on the economy now looking at some of the largest economies
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in the block france's g.d.p. fell by 5.8 percent over the quarter as did spain's economy declined by 5.2 percent now german officials had also announced this week that they expect their g.d.p. to decline by 6.3 percent for the year overall meanwhile the european central bank announced thursday it would keep interest rates where they are at 0 but added they will continue stimulus measures until the economy stabilizes. and here in the united states new filings for unemployment reached 3400000 for the week ending the 24th of april now this brings the total number of claims over the last 6. 1000000 despite the dismal economic data an incredible number of unemployed americans markets are on pace for the best month and decades today of course excluded so let's get some expert analysis on the situation with tobin smith c.e.o. of transforming research and boom bust co-host christi i thank you both for joining
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us today now christy weekly weekly jobless numbers are in now as i just mentioned 3400000 filing for unemployment which is worse than expectations again how bad can this actually get. i think that's quite bad because if you remember we have been coming in worse than expectations now for about 6 weeks in a row so now you have roughly 30300000 people who have filed for unemployment in the last 6 weeks which is pretty much one in every 6 americans so with more employers cutting payroll in order to boost their earnings economists have now up their forecast that the unemployment rate for april could go as high as 20 percent now unemployment has always been a bit of a lagging indicator given the time it takes to process and gather all these numbers some analysts suggest that the real numbers are likely to be higher estimated that up to 12000000 more people have lost their jobs to claim yet given the backlog in the system the biggest drop to date came from california florida connecticut and new york but what about texas we haven't gotten any of the real numbers from texas
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yet especially given the collapse of oil and energy complex in the recent weeks now that active breakout has been cut in half we would expect massive layoffs coming out of that sector within a few weeks so the really disturbing part of all of this is that far more americans have filed for unemployment now than the job gains in the last decade since the end of the great recession. but i want to bring you into the conversation unemployment point there you know we're hearing so much about unemployment but it seems that markets and everything keeps giving the impression that this is temporary this is just a temporary situation don't worry was the lockdowns with the stand at home orders are done everybody will go back to work everything will be normal again but you've been sounding the alarm on this show that that's not exactly the case what do you make of these latest numbers. well 2 things number one unless you've been on a ventilator for the last 3 months all of what she just talked about is known by the market number one number 2 we did have
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a capitulation bottom on march 23rd that i talked about because everyone who had to sell it was forced to sell sold and all of a sudden people realize that i've done this for 35 years and what i tell our subscribers that transfer money research about 2 weeks ago was at the time do you really want to buy stocks is when it's the horrible time because what you're looking for in a market the best markets go from really bad to just less bad i mean that's what's happening right now i use example of we're building this table right one leg came to us from the fed a giant leg the 2nd leg really came in yesterday when the men to agree or which i always miss pretty it's showed that it really had a therapeutic effect so that takes fear down people start buying all our numbers for april may june are going to be horrible but that is priced into member the market got in a fog you couldn't see your hand all of
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a sudden now i can see 10 feet ahead of me and now i'm starting to look out we're pricing stocks based on 2020 to forget about 2020 forget about 2021 if you could have that imagination then you could make one hell of a lot of money right now in stocks well in tow but it's interesting that you say that because you say you know it gets it gets really bad and then it gets slightly better but in reality it got really bad and now we're having one of the best months since 1987 and u.s. equity markets how does that kind of make sense i mean i understand what you're saying about we're looking forward but the situation really stands that the numbers are not going get any better and yet here we are having the best month as i did the 7. i'm going to say the slower but the market is not looking. it's throat out the market is not looking at 2021 it's throat out if you're a here it is to venture like we are you're looking at 2022 and again what i tell subscribers all the time is there are so many stocks that have been priced as if they're going bankrupt it's like literally picking up you know dollar bills on the
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street or excuse me $10.00 bills on the street for nothing and so right now that's what you're seeing 1st you saw technology play because technology has played for the last 12 years that is the future the 2nd leg you're seeing now which is rational is that we're buying some natural gas companies for instance that are being sold as if they are you're going down you have they've only lost one percent of their of their you know their production and they're selling for pennies on the dollar that's rational brant that is rational you know kristie analysts are saying this is one of the strangest earning seasons ever what are you seeing here rick. oh yes toben on exactly what you said like now analysts are able to see about 10 feet up ahead of them but what they're not able to see is what's actually going to happen at the end of 2020 i get that 2020 has been thrown out the books and people are really discounting 2020 as just basically a wasted year among companies are providing very very little guidance about the future they're trying to sound vaguely optimistic and hopeful to investors who want
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to believe this that they are recovering and there will be some sort of recovery always about their eating up in 2020 already so you have alphabet warning about the ad rev drops off and the consumer shopping less but then they ended on an optimistic saying that address actually stabilized and they have u.p.s. a point that they're getting more revenues from american online shopping despite the fact that delivery of the shipment has shrunk dramatically and basically dropped off the edge of a cliff so it's really a mixed bag making the data very very difficult to interpret so companies are also withdrawing their full year guide and getting uncertain climate which had been making it very hard for analysts to even put up estimates in the 1st but right now the range between the upper and the lower bounds of analyst estimates for each company has never been higher for their part so despite all the companies deliberately being opaque about their future earnings we're still sitting on only 15 percent off of all time highs which is actually really crazy to think about because that doesn't make sense this be bound came way too fast a little too optimistic and too hopeful even if we're pricing and if even if we're
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looking ahead at 2021 children quickly before we wrap up here with this mixed bag of earnings across the board i mean what sectors are you actually still looking at that are good i mean you obviously missed a couple there and what are the big names that you're looking at today. big they were buying as is usa compressors uss u.s.a.c. because they're the heart and soul of natural gas it's a 25 percent yield they haven't missed a dividend in 12 years the other we love is a new company that's kind of the i.p.o. it's called v.t.i. g.'s the ticker symbol it's nikola motors they are the tesla of freight trucks all over the world. they they do their i.p.o. the end of june we haven't had a $4000000000.00 market cap today our forecast is a $20.00 to $30000000000.00 market cap because they presold every truck every lecture truck fuel cell driven truck for the next 24 bucks right to be ever heard of a company who took tesla 10 years to get to 10000000 they're going to get there in 5000000 so ben smith will have to keep an eye on that one and boom bust co-host
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christine thank you so much for that. let's take another global look at the trends and spread of the coat of iris with our 2 correspondents sides so where are we today so grand that's in the u.s. have now exceeded 62000 people causing more destruction on the economy so it makes sense that the u.s. government is trying to ease restrictions but the question remains is it too soon and for that i want to take a look at the numbers so 1st unemployment and and around $3800000.00 more people have filed for unemployment the 1st time this week bringing the total to $30000000.00 people and that's 18 percent of the labor force in the u.s.
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economy well that's that's shrunk $4.00 in the 1st quarter of this year so obviously people are out of work companies are going bankrupt and people want to get back to is some sort of normal but governments are also trying to balance the desperate need to haul the damage to the economy against arista of a repeat of this pandemic so whereas the u.s. just started to ease some restriction europe has been ahead but you know europe isn't doing any better in fact the e.u. economy shrank 3.5 percent in the 1st quarter of 2020 and that's the worst quarterly drop your of has ever seen which is why our european leaders started to sketch out their strategy for putting their economy back to work with countries like germany czech republic austria and denmark among the 1st in the west to start lifting restrictions now even countries hit the worst in europe like italy and spain some businesses are reopening slowly brand so what about some of these
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countries that you know maybe didn't impose such strict lockdowns and stay at home . borders that we did see how are they faring this well there's obviously been a lot of criticism on governments globally for shutting down the economy but one country that never impose any kind of lock down is sweden and you know but they're not doing any better either economically and also in terms of cases infections in fact the death rate in sweden has now raised significantly more than any other year or more than european countries reaching more than 24 per 100000 people and by contrast their neighbors denmark has recorded just 7 deaths per 100000 people and both norway and finland less than 4 and still sweden says it's coronavirus approach has helped their economy but guess what the numbers suggest a different story and
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a look at sweden economically now data released from sweden central bank showed that their economy will be just as badly hit as their european neighbors if not worse and sweden central bank give 2 possible scenarios for their economic outlook for 2020 now in this 1st scenario g.d.p. contracted by 6.9 percent in 2020 now meanwhile unemployment could reach 8.8 percent now in a more negative prediction g.d.p. could contract by 9.7 percent with unemployment over 10 percent and now both rebound but not on toll 2021 and lockdowns in germany spain italy france and the u.k. have also hit their economies severely you know in fact the international monetary fund predicts that germany and the u.k. will see their economy strength by 6 and a half and 7 percent france 7.2 spain 8 percent italy will see their
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economy shrink by 91 point one percent and sweden is neighbor finland. and denmark which also imposes lockdowns their economies will shrink by 6 percent and finland add 6 a half percent so back to your question brad it does not appear that sweden is actually doing any better r t correspondent saya tab hunter thank you for keeping us up to date. and as a reminder you can always find the latest news and information regarding the quote of our son portable t.v.'s coronavirus tracker time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return we have discussed the impact of the pandemic on different sectors but our sports very limits of the role of bars we'll take a deep dive into the subject and as we go to break are the numbers at the close.
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2 shakes possible sensible stuff. is your media a reflection of reality. in a world transformed. what will make you feel safe. isolation for community. are you going the right way or are you being led so. direct. what is true what is faith. in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or remain in the shallows.
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this is like a horse race or it's like a marathon there are $200.00. countries worth $200.00 participants in this marathon and the question is which technique plays out to save most lives and companies because the 2 matter of saving both. the u.s. economy was booming growing numbers of people were made homeless. you can work 40 hours 'd in a week and still not have enough to get housing everybody believes america still is the land of opportunity the reality of those who were not financial ecology and the lack of affordable housing for a living minimum wage gave many people new choice. that's been a problem with the city knows turn the temperature on a cold to stay way i don't miss our 2 selves of consider that there is no answer
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because yes that requires resources the most vulnerable are abandoned on the streets. to become invisible yes. welcome back as the world is continuing to stay indoors to do the lock downs and stay at home orders a giant void has been created in the sports world every major league has been forced to shut down in some capacity here in the united states professional basketball and hockey would be in the middle of their intense playoff schedule and baseball would be in the beginning of their long season the world's most popular sport and soccer has also been suspended the english premier league spain's little league and the german bundesliga have all been without game since march due to the pandemic of course that is even mentioning the other leagues throughout the world which have had to take precautions due to the virus over the last few months the
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executives behind all of these leagues have been looking for a way to get back on the field or pitch if you will what might all of this look like and what are the economic implications of these shutdowns and frankly jumpstarting professional sports to discuss that we're joined by karen mcguire author of the price of football understanding the football club finance coming to us from liverpool and archie american sports correspondent spawn chris and steve christakis here in washington d.c. now steve i'm actually going start with you. we are hearing a lot of talk about contingencies to restart sports in the u.s. what are you hearing at this moment well brant 1st of all as we were just talking about off camera nascar released a statement saying they were trying to start up on may 17th in south carolina that's yet to be determined you have to see is a big win that saying they want to start may 9th would you have said to 49 and 40 but the major ones let's start with the n.b.a. for example they're trying to be one of the 1st major sports in the u.s. to start up and they will have to do 1st of all a 25 day program whenever that would begin with
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a 14 day quarantine and an 11 day training camp to get back into shape obviously for the players now you heard rumors today the latest was they might finished. the season at disney world now if that does happen it's yet to be determined ford is a big state that many are looking at because the governor there has relaxed orders to stay home and also deemed appropriate professional sports as essential services now next we have something like the n.h.l. trying to start up with centralized host cities that could be a 4 arena plan and they would also need the 3 weeks training camp to get back into shape as they are trying to restart their season now these are looking mid june to july for those 2 to start up then we have the m l b trying to start 3 division 3 state new new season because they were yet to start there as they were just getting ready for opening day before this all got cancelled they would look to start sometime towards july 2nd and it would be between florida arizona and texas with 10 teams in each state it would be $82100.00 game season so a condensed season that would be the best possible scenario for the l.b.
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to have any type of season at all and then last but not least the biggest one here in the u.s. and around the world really brings in the most ad revenue with $6000000000.00 the n.f.l. is not wanting to lose any of that television ad revenue and trying to start the season on time of course but if it does not it's looking for towards october 15th there'd be no pro bowl there'd be no bye week and the super bowl could be pushed back to february 28th and thank you steve for that and mr mcguire want to bring in the conversation how badly has soccer clubs actually been hit or hurt by the shutdown as an expert in football finance not playing matches has to be hurting the bottom line for these clubs which are hugely lucrative what are you seeing here. well it's not any effects a bottom line to think ultimately it's hitting the top line in that strife driven through as far as the premier league is concerned in england we've had no matches and there's a potential repayments all over broadcasting rights to the both the domestic and the overseas broadcasters of around about $770000000.00 u.s. u.k.
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sterling so that's around about a $1000000000.00 if matches don't return then cops have problems because that committee to wage payments because the players are on long term wage deals so the clubs are hurting and even if the matches do return in the shed around about the 7th of june it's going to be taking place behind closed doors so the clubs will be losing you know a club like manchester united to live a bloke who would tend to be losing around about $3.00 to $4000000.00 per match from lots of lots of ticket sales well that's what i was going to actually ask next year because we're hearing about that possibility of restarting these leagues premier league bundesliga league all kind of reports here on thursday as you mentioned the games to be the matches would be played behind closed doors i mean we're looking at when you look at my new stadium. and liverpool all of those empty i mean you're saying there's millions of euros at stake or millions of pounds if you will at stake there i mean do we also lose
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a big you know here in the us we often talk about sports as the surrounding areas the small businesses located near those skating near those arenas also losing out is that a big worry there in the u.k. when it comes to premier league as well. very much so i mean the you can't call me is clearly hurting as it is all of the colonies are present now to somebody that. when when liverpool are hosting a match at anfield for the weekend because it's because it's a global brand because it's an international league famous football club their fans come across from the from island from the from the scandinavian countries from the far east and so on so all of the hotels are always sold out of that particular weekends and clearly they the hospitality industries in terms of restaurants bars taxi service is all of these already hated they're going to be they'll be gnashing their teeth that they won't be able to get any opportunity to make to make money and what's the most lucrative weekends for the year for them you actually mentioned before they're in the 1st question about t.v.
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deals which is a huge deal because you know the premier league's deal with sky t.v. alone is worth 1500000000 pounds a league and bonus league their contracts are worth more than a 1000000000 euros each and you know is a lot of this push to get it back about getting that television money to go through to satisfy these huge deals and not only that but to make the networks big money as well as get the name out there for the franchises again. very much so the big fear of the premier league is that they have they have money from $3.00 sources as do as does the bundesliga leaker itself and it's match day which clearly isn't going to be earning as a result of taking down close doubles they have their sponsors they have their commercial partners who will only be happy if their product is being broadcast so it's absolutely essential for the big leagues to be showing their product even at least to an empty stadium at least people will you know it will be guaranteed eyeballs because they go to the countries going crazy and everybody's climbing the
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walls of desperation from lock down and the opportunity to watch football and everybody flocking to the television cameras it is concerning however that the french league has closed as is the one in the netherlands and belgium scotland is closed as well so already half of europe east is effectively not playing football for the foreseeable future it's only the big boys so it is in the shape of england spain germany italy that are remaining you know steve i want to get you in on this discussion here just a little bit while the tokyo olympics have been postponed until 2021 there has been some talk that they may not happen at all if a vaccine is not available by the time that they're supposed to happen and there is a $1000000000.00 t.v. contract on the line just here in the united states that the measure what else is going on throughout the u.s. you get about 30 seconds here how much of this cancellation at a cost like you mentioned that t.v. contract with n.b.c. is worth $1200000000.00 in revenue alone just with the postponement already so if it were to ultimately be canceled due to no kick back seen by 2021 that would be even more than the $1200000000.00 that they already lost through the n.b.c.
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contract now japan has spent $12600000000.00 already on this some say the japanese the national lot of board say it's twice as much maybe $23000000000.00 but postponement has already cost them $2700000000.00 care mcguire thank you so much for your time and steve i want you to stick around here for just a minute for our next story. and finally some of the biggest names in tennis are ready to return to the court but it won't be the luscious grass of wimbledon instead they will be playing on the courts of nintendo switch game mario tennis aces superstars like naomi osaka and serena and venus williams will pair with celebrities for a charity termit put on by talent management company i m g and facebook gaming maria share povo is even going to come out of retirement if that's what you want to call it for this event which will feature commentary from tennis legend john mcenroe some of the celebrity partners include supermodel jihad dede and f l star
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hopkins and d.j. steve aoki the winner of the event will receive $1000000.00 to donate to the charity of their choice while the other competitors will be given $25000.00 each to donate to a charity the tournament will be broadcast on facebook gaming's home page on sunday steve what do you look at forward to most in this big tennis match i mean i know where i'll be on sunday afternoon now and i'm looking for i've got to say john mcenroe's commentary he's a loose cannon you never know what he's going to say and also see maria sharapova come back one more time absolutely would be great to see her be in some of these big names again and say what might actually happen you never know it's fun and these are the times we live in and that's it for this boom bust on the brand new portable t.v. app available on smartphones through play and the apple app store by searching portable t.v. you can also find it at portable dot tv to get more information as always check us out on you tube dot com slash boom bust r t c n x time. turn
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me off and speak of the black hole of debt that is where all of the universe and. pastor of lives a central bank balance sheet and its cosmic source calling the g.d.p. of the world. now or at the white hole of debt as i am still most training with this white piece of cardboard. the white for dead has all the other side of deep black hole of debt and in an era of major interest rates and negative oil prices we have to call rising hard concept to debt hole from black to white makes sense and of course not. you shouldn't somebody. just let me see yes. i was on the floor some things in my basket and you know trying praying.
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i. mean what's the best time for friends 3000 words i was having chilling fever i didn't have any sense of ceaseless now i'm in the most you can go to the world with you. recently she you know sometimes you just used to say. that was some of the song around through the research. didn't. push myself coppola do this for me in the bible go to. one else seemed wrong why don't we all just don't hold. any old belief yet to shape our disdain comes to advocate and in again trying
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equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart when you choose to look for common ground. time after time corporations repeat the same mantra sustainability it's very important it's accelerate the transition to sustainable transport sustainability. a more equitable and sustainable world. they claim their production is completely harmless. it's. companies want us to feel good about buying their products while the damage is being done far away and this is this going to.
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underscore that with who. live from the world headquarters of the r t america our nation's capital this is the news with rick sanchez kind of everybody i'm rick sanchez to all of you who are watching us from all over the world rather you're watching on regular t.v. or on on the app that's becoming so popular portable t.v. we are so glad you are there the friction between the united states and china has just reached another milestone in this one is much more tangible than the accusations that have been going back and forth about who's to blame for the coronavirus let me tell you what's going on for the 1st time china has expelled and actively.
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