so going. to get. into. your. car. was. welcome to so because visionaries misa vision or counsel car virus regimes across the planet keeping millions in lockdown swiffer has chosen its weight it has its own brady unique approach keep to this is a big opening and the business is running well to talk about this i'm joined by callum stone swedish futurist economist innovative speaker and bestselling author.

can also feature is economists in a native speaker best selling author great having back on our show welcome. oh actually it was a different show it was called so because now we do so because visionaries and years of true visionary when i hear your views and pronounces oh whatever is going on here we're going to start with sweden your country so unlike other countries soon couldn't hire everyone it was sort of the entire single lockdowns oppose stranger social distancing measures against even chose every mild strategy schools open restaurants bars barbershops can bring in swedish health authorities stand by the response and they claim this measures are effective so that's true why aren't other countries rushing to actually apply is what is approach well i think the reason is simple there are very few swedish people in france. or in italy or interrogate you can only follow this principle that sweden this using in

a country where you have a lot of swedish people why i'm saying this is because this is a place a country. that you would call a high trust society and in a high trust society you trust the authorities you trust the police you trust everybody your neighbor and this means that you don't need mary brutish type of techniques to make people follow here you need recommendations and people will go with you. this is a country that have had peace since 18009 there is no other country on planet earth where you have such a long period of time of peace and this means that swedes in a way behave in a somewhat different way as compared to germans the russians or through or french or any other people so years they had that mulatto could only were applied to

sweden because swedish people have heightened sense of responsibility and social awareness and no other country would be able to seriously folly because it will end up in charge of things i mean they're pretty much rule bank they do everything they're told to do i don't see an injury or people breaking that rules. and yes they do but here you can do it with rather only a recommendation you don't even need a little you can actually recommend people to do things you can propose people to do things and they will go with you and as i said the central word here is trust the fact that you trust the person that recommend you to do certain things and then you will go with the person since your trust the person or the authority and here we know from research that sweden together with maybe just pan. to certain extent korea have a situation where you have

a very high trust in this. and that means that we are a little bit different when it comes to how we organize our companies universities as well as a pandemic to fight to pandemic. there's been so much press about this weight issue model in everyone's calling it a different thing someone says it's a risk in monaco and other outlets sensible policy health care will and exterior meant and those are some of the words that are actually so describing the swedish way. down it is this would issue a gamble is it a risk or is it a part of the plan and the government is exactly where it's going because if you're saying this is all based on personal responsibility and these fleets are people who have heightened sense of responsibility i mean it is still it's still sound like a gamble to me when i mean because i see what you mean. now 2 things here the 1st

thing is this virus we know today will hit every country. it happened and it already is that $184.00 off though $200.00 countries or something that it will hit every country and in principle it will also hate and rude person sooner or later it seems we don't have x. and now as an effect of that there are this is only a matter of choice method what kind of method you will use to keep it in the flow to the health care system at a decent level in our respective countries finland germany sweden russia everywhere it's a matter of keeping it in a flow through the health care system at a level such that it doesn't crash and explode in some countries you do it

by locking the whole 'd country down and control the inflow that way in some countries you do it we have. changing the legislation police on the street and you keep the flow inflow to the health care system at the certain limit here you don't have to call out the police or the military people still follow the recommendations which means the health care system hass not crashed which is the test if you see what i mean this is the ultimate test does the health care system stand by. sort out the problems and ask her s.l. today or yesterday i should say because we got the numbers yet that it was yes still standing still working people seems to follow the recommendations yes we don't have to go further surratt is here sophie has also been very clear if you

do not follow the recommendations we will take 12345 steps more and then it will be more brutal there proves that the government is saddled to exit evil is that he should all be responsible for each other and if one breaks the rules then we can implement harsher measures that everyone else sort of goes down with you is that the yes you can call that a social punishment and for a swedish person that's a very hard punishment to go like ha so you doesn't follow the rules then we have to change the whole procedure here which means that we have to punish everybody if you see what i mean. and that's exactly where we are today the government has announced you follow these recommendations if you don't we will be tougher. so this one ish open model is contrary to everything every country has doing on so contradiction lumped into one you know

advice a city of i'm just wondering. how exactly can this place government sankoh it games to peer pressure it out of its neighbors let me they insist it's way because it's not easy no one anywhere is insane wearing it to gather their family together we were all in lock downs and then recently it's really like we'll sorry we're not doing that but i think it's pretty cool if it's working out for you then own best but ricky must've been very hard now to go against this you know more like tight. yes but there are 2 assets to this one you know one answer is that this trust thing that you and i have been talking about the other thing is that we have a model for governance in this country which prescribes that a government is subject to follow the recommendations of its experts origins and

a minister can not fire the have no that the authorities or intern rename anyway you or the others so you are bound to follow the recommendations of the experts here so the experts come with firm recommendations to you as a prime minister you will look at the recommendation it's a scientific recommendation and it's public and transparent it would be very very difficult for you to say i will go against my experts and propose a complete lockdown. so who were they waiting on some numbers and correct me if i'm wrong i know your theory that you're comparing and economy systemic economic system to a bicycle is like a bicycle or weights needs to keep growing because if you start to fall and then in that way it makes complete sense why sweden is trying to do what he desk but i and the same hand laid on the same time at

a record number of people who have been fired by the almost 37000 people according to this city's t.v. those are known as an impact of yes yes it is a current crisis be and late things haven't been think great have the country g.d.p. easels expected to drop so does that mean that despite all the measures economic fall out of the pedantic will be found the same in sweden as an easily you know this is used to compare. have to excuse myself 1st for comparing such a serious thing as a deceased to some kind of sport this is like a horse race where it's like m r us on there are 200 horses countries or 200 participants in this marathon and the question is which technique plays out to say most lives and companies because it's a matter of saving both as much as you can over your economy and as many lives as

possible. we would know that in 2 or 3 years' time when we compared to today it's difficult because we didn't start the race at the same time if you see what i mean. the virus came to easily before it came to sweden the virus came to prey out way before it came to to the nordic countries or to russia which means that it's too early to compare. what you can see here i have to mother countries you can say i am half finnish asked swedish and when you look at the finnish experience so far they lock the country down as you know they have very few infected number a low number of infected people. very few deaths in relation to the population but they also declared. this means that we will have to continue with restrictions and very firm restrictions until november oktober november maybe even

december because. the number of infected people we continue over time for a longer period of time. here in sweden my other home country the number of infected people today is high the deaths somewhat higher than in finland but it also means that the infection will play out faster here. unique.

30 years ago the. nation and the end of. the legacy of. thousands of american men and women choose to serve in the country's military. every thing came to a complete. the day that i was right. you know told a short while they'd kill me and i see how destroyed. any screamed at me and he

made me come in and he grabbed my arm and he write me. if you take into account that women don't report because of the extreme retaliation and it's probably somewhere near about half a 1000000 women have now been sexually assaulted in the us military is a very very traumatizing tat happen but i've never seen trauma like i've seen women who are veterans who have suffered military sexual trauma reporting rape is more likely to get the victim punished from the offender and almost 20 year career or chose very invested in and i gave a sex offender who was not even put to justice or put on the registry this is simply an issue of power and violence male sexual predators for the large part of target whoever is there to prey upon whether that's a man or woman. back

with congress or swedish economists in any speaker best selling author feature east count you mentioned here are there more than langston and you're saying they're very strict social measures and getting locked out til november december so this straight social distancing measures they're also taking time on people's minds as well it's not just the last asiri lake. area who know at some point which one would be a bigger problem like a psychological problem canonical problem how long can take can people actually take it because we're all social elements i feel like the we're at the brain where actors just kind of 1st sound i think you're exactly right there we are of course

the break in many countries today. when you look a country then you also look people's life down and at the end of the day this hass an impact on our health to. this we know we also know that high unemployment rates if we come up to 1520 percent. on an unemployment in countries that would have an impact on health too so it's a matter of balancing things here if you go are too harsh with the lockdown measures there will be healthy implications on the other side if you go too soft on the virus and on the pandemic of course then you risk crashing the health care system which will have a low impact on the. health of the population so you balance things here

i think it makes sense. that we do it in a somewhat different way because people culture our history are different. and that means that the french the german dissuaded the russian way will be a little bit different in terms of nuances because so our respective countries history and experience so you also say saying that the economy is to a large extent driven by hope yes hope tracks investments our consumption but to be quite honest sounds thinking about that and i mostly dream about the day when i get out of home back to work and i jus like the simplest things right make our new coffee on a terrace humming a friend you know i taking a walk and i'm certainly not thinking about investments or consumption and i am

thinking that may be on hold for a while for me and there are a lot of people around b. who think the same way so where it does in the situation of posting derek hope as a dragger of economy come in because i don't hope for investments and consumption i just hope for the simplest things i never thought at hope for it's a very well you put it very well there and i think we will follow precisely the cycle i did was start with very small things that we are hoping for to see our friends to have a coffee together take a walk together a summer day maybe even if so why and if we're lucky. investments buying a house in from source something like that not and that means that we will start up the economy probably the wrong is slowly after dispensary. dependent mix seems to be

a little bit longer than we expected from the beginning. and that means that it will take a little bit longer to start up the economy look at to marie some for example or the airline into the local airline industry the planes are all on the ground around the world today most of them at least and to start this up we're looking at several years to 3 in some cases maybe even more so i also want to look at the world today. borders being back up and hold and that's understandable and travel bans supply chains are paralyzed and you know what happened to damage globalization was sort of not in the high here but will this quranic crassus kill it completely rethink not completely. number one this is the logo like i say shannon phenomenon basically started with in its modern

form with china opening its north to do west now the soviet union collapsing some years later in the beginning of the ninety's and then into world open like an oyster. and you could basically use the whole world as a playground all got time in that you could buy components from china you could buy oil or other components from russia you could ship it to holland packet sheet then distribute it in europe it was a found pass the 3035 years where we were using the competitive advantages of our respective country it was like agreeing your own boost kind of party locally. everybody brought their their own thing to the table. as come to a halt. absolutely however we will create regional

supply change we won't we won't go back to national we go back to regional that means that would be a nordic northern european european a show european not a necessarily a global for the foreseeable future because i'm still having hard time imagining what he would be like. the world economy right now is so interconnected and dependent on flow of people and services and it's become global esle arrow still the recent because when you're saying it's going to go from global to regional. i assume it's going to take also some time what do we do between what happens in between. we wouldn't it do a little bit of both which means that we would have our foot in the global world which supply chains that go all the way to pakistan or we have now more or or argentina or somewhere else in the world global supply chains but we will

gradually build a local or regional backup so for a time we will have both. if we see it over a longer period of time like 20 or 25 years we will be back to globalisation if we look at the long history of human beings there is one and only one direction we go in bigger institutions and more international i say sions. there are blips seemed occur because a war because of endemic speak or so things that happened but the long term rise 1520 years later we will be back. so this region there is a shame that you talk you talk about this isn't a flight to condemn it to feel like it's just going to be fast for for it because of the pool damage it could have taken place over the course of i don't know 5 or 10 years and i was thinking course overnight because of the pool damage exactly

right and i think what the 10 downing do to the economic system is that it speeds up certain structural changes we've been talking about internet shopping for 20 years and it still has been very slow in certain industries now it's happening we have been talking about building up local suppliers over many many years that it's necessary to have also local suppliers now it's happening so in a way speeds things up that we have been talking about. so i have. maybe a bit of a philosophical question for you because when i look at crisis major crisis that took place late thanks in 20 workmanlike 29 or 2008 it sort of happened overnight i mean people woke up one day and found that they've lost or their savings aren't and money was no good anymore it got devalued where this sat it's

very different and in this situation evolved gradually we don't know when it's going and but well there are that it's going to and we'll only know that we're going to have a crass in our hand so i was thinking because it's the beginning of this crisis and because this whole thing is some unconventional could this outcome also be unconventional i mean do you think we are in a long recession and 5 to 10 years like in 2008 or do you think maybe because the form of the crisis is so on conventional the solution to it also could be nothing like before. extreme him sit down require an extreme response and this is rather extreme and it starts not with a financial mishap or something wrong with them financial machinery it starts with you and me being locked down in an apartment somewhere which means that we

can't buy our coffee we can't do our shopping so the crisis team back. all these crises on the economic system basically comes from the buying and it's the buyers that are not there to some extent it's the suppliers that can deliver but it's not a banking crisis it's not the dollar that these were a currency that is collapsing nothing it's a virus that stops the machinery. the consumption and that has a lot of impact then down the chain of the economic system. yes date will be different this time the governments in our respective country we can think of the government as an insurance company i used to think seriously of government sounded public sector as a big insurance company and now it's time for the insurance company to pay up and that's what they are doing in our respective countries in

a somewhat different way because we are different but the insurance companies are now paying and they are paying for the damage ace that means that we can start up much faster then weed out an insurance policy but it would stand required to do in some industries 3 years before we are back i'm talking about the airline industry hotels traveling. it will take some time so far what's your estimate what's what like 3 to 5 years 2 to 3 years so we're back to normal years before we are back. and then 5 years because before we are full speed ahead and to be back to the level of globalisation that we see today probably more like 1015 years just last question because i knew his system demick. as a paradox in a way because it has put the world of old right but on the other hand just like the

regionalization process it has fast forward so many processes for instance processes there were supposed to die were tracking a lot of their data overnight and present and they were supposed to start you know that they're in there they're not like a distant future anymore that say it's our reality i'm talking about having jobs and changed and it that a job market is changing the business is the right out and surely newspapers are gone forever for instance and online businesses are here forever at this point you know and like i'm not even sure if a lot of people will go back to work because they figure they can work from home so i am trying to figure out where if human nature is it is a good thing that the transformation happened so quickly we're doing it more time for it i think in time so pandemic. time so big crises

same stories down to whoa we human beings are and one thing we human beings are on average is that we are an energy saving type of animals we are lacey. we don't do things until we are forced to do them we should be lacey evolution has created us that way we shouldn't run around and spend energy left and right we should say energy but that also means that on average people are lazy they don't want to change their habits you and me we don't want to change our habits neither in our private life nor professionally if we can postpone it a little bit until next year or the year after that what we see now is an external shock a load fibrous that forces us to change we don't like to do internet shopping now we have to do you like to have a newspaper financial times paper nice paper now you don't get

it you're forced to read it's only web so the ladies see birth since we are already now foresty into new habits and that's why i think this is a little bit different than a financial crisis. thank you so much for this wonderful insight oh whatever is happening without sending nearest future i hope we get to talking matter trying to do when we have more marry me is to discuss but it's always a pleasure talking to you good luck with everything and stacy. they say thank you very much.

thank the. with the lot of things . you shouldn't. let me see yes. i was on the floor some days ambassador you know finding praying. when i'm getting certain thank. you.