11 probably for about a prolonged economic recession and we are slipping a scottish economic commentator jobs covens new thinking might emerge from this crisis but 1st the glasgow with your twitter should e-mails and your messages thank you alex 1st of all a new sponsor to our extended interview mr hardy burns a former chief medical officer for scotland mike says this is a fascinating interview long in-depth and totally vetting absolute and i really really hope people in particular on board and take action tracy says this is the best interview i've listened to and makes a lot more sense than what we have to listen to on the news with the politicians seem to tell us very little and says wish she was still our c.m.o. heidi then in response to a sure last week on media on the pandemic award winning journalist peter oborne and chris hedges from both sides of the atlantic lewis says love the show interesting look at what the press are saying i'm in no doubt that they will increase their

criticism of the prime minister and his government run a says it must be scary living in the us to be so bad for humanity in policy development she then goes on to city agree we have huge inequality too norma says the print media is dying but it's mostly their own fault by some lies that's what they print i have a newspaper for years but i get all untruthfully on social media gemma says newspapers have brought on their own demise by reporting biased news finally scott says there is no way to run a pandemic government just save lives and live right. the lockdown of the better part of the world economy is an event without precedent in world history never before has a 1 august session been engineered as a deliberate act of policy to tackle a health crisis vicki price is the chief economic advisor of the center for economic and business research she's also a former head of the economic service and the united kingdom who better to assess

the prospects for economic recovery think the price now joins me from london. vicky pryce one of the 1st quarter economic figures tell us about the impact of the. world economy basically we are seeing a contraction of spread across the world and be one of the interesting issues is 1st of all how much. you do contractionary and his activity to shop because we're beginning to feel someone who knows outcomes just now in the western world anyway the question then who say this was. not an impact that would have been whether the recovery that we're all hoping will happen at some point his class as the international monetary fund house or whether we're going to have what it was chucked it period during which he tried to get out of this recession which is the largest they've seen released since the great crash in the early part of the 20th

century and whether they're for that is going to leave scars for quite some time and the economy simply aren't going to recover say going to come or anything what we lose to see is all for now when your sense financial crisis so that it's telling us we're in recession basically that's what they do suggest. the problem is the major economies are been flowing but could only be described as economic poets of the recession at the crisis what policies haven't passed through the morse thus far i think all governments have in don't prepare it to engage in quota of borrowing in order to sustain the economy so fiscal rules have been abandoned i think the governments have learned from the financial crisis is exactly what was needed then but it was suddenly easier because we had one problem to deal with the banking system trying to avoid the credit crunch from causing huge financial instability

that was more easily handle that this is quite unprecedented because we have it both ways that we're not. trying to expand mt which is the who trying to do then what we're trying to do now is sustain the population and this is this why we're pushing demand and supply downward sentiment but this is quite unprecedented for central banks to be buying us on the scale but would you say it's justified given the unprecedented nature of the economic crisis are completely about illusions to fight who must remember that the european central bank has been doing this for a long period of time cos it's not new for them and since 10 to 15 now been quite aggressively we've now abandoned concerns about how much we do the u.k. for example has been able to sell its bonds and finance. the deficit is going to have this year estimated to something like 300000000000 pounds mainly because the

central bank his feeling behind it printing money you could call it promising to buy all those bonds that others will acquire back from them so they know that there's someone there to make the market for them that the risk is a small part and therefore the bank of it in his neighbor with the support so the treasury rather has been able to support him the bank of england to go out to the markets and issuance of bonds very low rates shipping then the news money of it to fund guarantee course a lot of the activities that are going on my mountain markets to sustain the economy going to do without that whether you bank of england bank of japan received the list said that also has been quite supportive in china and elsewhere. think we have seen much much faster here and racial conditions in the us.

thus far some countries are been substantially more successful and containing the virus than others south korea taiwan in europe gleason's and germany will these countries be insulated from the economic effects or will they be caught up in a general don't term in the world economy and world trade. to worry thing about the world economy so it was already slowing down going down very significantly before the crisis hit and working it seems that the trade skews between china and the us it is to cuba had already we've used chinese growth question sam shilling and ready to use grants and loads of other parts of the world japan was an export of the whole china in the 1st china was a growing particularly germany wasn't us for 2 months a china scene in europe in fact is a 2 quarters of contraction some of the commons there but included actually german

which also included the u.k. because we're also going to hear by that slowdown in trade and than being a worry in any case one of the reasons why monetary policy has been relaxed and ready. for this crisis has been the calls on the central banks are trying to sustain growth in those regions and practiced or still responsible and we saw the z.b. get into the market again quite aggressively back you remember and playing a critical role last year it is a very unusual situation so if there isn't a resumption of trade soon. extend that that sustains the world economy as we've seen a high importantly this then countries that have done quite well in terms of containing the fires are still going to be affected by the slowdown in trade and we're hearing who else resumption on all the possible resumption of trade his suit is between the

u.s. and china which of course is going to be affecting markets for them somehow. there are some economists and indeed some political leaders been putting forward hopes that there might be a substantial economic recovery in the back end of this year and into 2021 is there any real prospect of a v. shaped recovery as it's called are we more likely in for a period of prolonged recession. we don't know that's interesting thing if you look at china and the data has come out of it then went into quite a bit line in the 1st quarter so what we saw is in quite a different induction production particular if you look at what's been happening recently the april data are after 2 months of very serious decline so increase again so china is moving out of it is no reason why other countries if there is

a lockdown shouldn't i thought the thing is for i thing in mind that when ruth who know what's going on right now what happens in the mansion crisis back in 200-8009 the monster well went into recession very quickly i didn't last very long it was a v. shaped well but at the time that's we had the then the new world oil prices were still quite high commodity prices were high actually doing reasonably well i mean it's just as recovering that someone's country is went into recession the concern prices fell one might as well so there was a bit of a balance in other words if this time seems to be the case that the developing world is also going to see a fall this year and getting out of that for them might actually be much more difficult than was the case back in the form of the financial crisis because many have very high debts now most of congress and much higher debts $200.00 due to the

beginning of the financial crisis and of course they will have difficulty credit worthiness left so they'll be deep thoughts right lots of debt is not going to be a nice experience for the world economy for a while so yeah i think the shape is. in your recent book women versus capitalism if you put forward the view that women still face substantial obstacles in terms of business and the economy and developing careers and going into positions of the. influence do you anticipate that women might also get the heart of the economic. of the covert 19 crisis look at the causes linked to this showdown in the economy the international monetary fund has come to that are in times of recession slowdown women suffer the most and of course the tend to be the poorest members of society because there is a big wage gap and they do the types of jobs which are the margins of society quite

a lot for their work. not paid and they're the ones for the most like you hong kong today so yes i worry on what's happening in the developed world this is quite long the pressures for gender equality seem to. have eased a little bit right now and probably will not be at the forefront of any becoming the takes place we've seen here in the u.k. for example in the the requirement for the firms to bumstead pay if you so the gaps that the have in their organizations in their women has been delayed and that causes a hurry to be going backwards and forwards and how long we take them back you can hear again in the position women has been lacking so the hunt take place and will be so down because of this and those are the main concerns and if you look at data it does suggest that women and young are the most of them in this process.

join us off to the break we continue our discussion with a columnist think the price. seems wrong. to me. yet to. come. and in. the trail. worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. patrons are consuming anything the solution according to the policymakers would be to make the consumers bigger inject more helium or oxygen in and

improve the situation they're not taking into consideration they're dead. they can't consume just like the money velocity number shows us for now couple of decades just. recently the money pretty much. welcome but i'm discussing with vicky pryce the former head of the government economic service and united kingdom about the efficacy of the financial policies being pursued by governments right in the world will do so for the v. shaped recovery or are we more set. for a long recession. record price. for the bills have to be settled some point after the crisis is over the policy makers wrote the world will be looking for different means of of raising

taxation is to close some of the substantial 1st call gobs of the early opportunities in terms of the economics effect of the crisis for example we knew them 1st and carbon taxes given the substantial fall in the resource price that may offer themselves us more attractive policy options are normal for economic viewpoint it's a carbon tax that we need is not just because of the cause and now there's all sorts of behaviors that many kids much more likely that will get to a solution that will lose less force and you know you then move into the area carbon capture and storage to alternative fuels you can get out of boston piers that can be used to not i'm certain way by no means the entity who owns just on gas presence this is huge it was to say to construct an industrial policy in various countries that is who you are in the future. what we have before anything i don't

think you need some more time changed and so have been sent to many countries by no are certain is the case in the u.k. so see those this unfortunately also doesn't worry about evil tends to get cooler than month to get what. fronts are the same theme what changes would you expect to see in the economies once 1st crisis is finally over who wanted to see what would be what happens the way we work. there is now serious discussion about whether one means it's commercial property that's out there and one. saddest thing of this to mean for all our pensions given a lot of money is invested in property certainly can't remain advanced nations to. believe me there were more from home what is very much see is a peanut that in some countries germany for example is thinking on. legislating

that can as of right work from home for the want maybe globalization a little go backwards because we need to be close to supply chains maybe there's a lot more on showing all the saying is that our now so the possum can go home so he can make it work most of their own state much to get well. because so many companies are going to be requiring systems they already are and then find that it was then rare to have them in the got the thoughts of course is the boom and i think the banking system will have different to. begin how quite new to the getting any of the loans back even though the danton been stated in places and then consumer might just change the habits. i think is the one to god's needs or they might be much more careful how they spend that money in the future do they worry it

will play very important no confidence because chances are great say from jason to vicky pryce from london thank you very much indeed for for joining us on the show you. now in the aftermath of this extraordinary economic crisis which has followed the global pandemic well new economic thinking a mess of as countries come to terms with the fool economic ramifications of covert 19 a time to jobs care of a leading economic thinker and scotland a former s.n.p. member of parliament just kind of and joins me from edinburgh now the bigger economy is all economies of we'll go to the big guns in order to confront the economic consequences of a lot though in these unprecedented positions of our and in just world recession just as a deliberate act of policy isn't this exactly the the moment where central banks

are justified in a substantial asset purchases quantity of easing of printing money isn't this the exactly the situation where the unprecedented action is justified i think you're right miss me was how quickly i mean as a matter of microseconds the core of the big central banks went back to cranking up the money machine trying to pump more cash into the economy the trouble is they can really use that mechanism over the last decade to cut interest rates down to rock bottom so the more money is being printed now it's essentially going to replacing lost taxes during the lot and it's not actually adding extra demand to the global economy in a way that would expand investment and expand empirics which is why i think ultimately the solution if you want to get the global economy back on track and growth back up to trend is going to be more. secure injection not not monetary

cost you know essentially keeping interest rates down which is what monetary policy has been used for to date i think comes you have to use them. they're printing from the central banks and companies are actually into the economy directly into investment directly into purchases interest rates already at rock bottom so what we need to do is to put money directly into spending and you're seeing some governments begin to do that chinese government began to do that even trump's government is leading into that in america not so much yet in europe. but coming to the u.k. economics the snow well criticism has been mounting against the prime minister's handling of the crisis the chancellor has been getting rave reviews the new chancellor of the exchequer seems to be the darling of much of the media commentary is that praise justified or more that should be being done by the u.k.

exchequer and actually the bank of him of just being given the chance or cash directly so he's going to shortage of spending per moment and if you use sort of spending power then you could look good i think the real test for the chancellor is one hand out of a look. could well be that the chancellor thinks he can resort to an all fashion gambit which is to boost inflation and of course if inflation goes up in the medium term then they value of the debts that the government has contract it will control will fall in real terms so i think the chance of might find it hard to raise taxes and freeze public sector pay if the immediate aftermath of the of the look but i think chair he might look can lay towards a little bit of inflation tell the economy along one side of new and different thinking the usage of calvin emerging from this crisis i can't imagine there's the

political will to go back to another bowl of a sterile city pay all the substantial sums of money the government support across the world. so it's going to have to be in other ways of funding government from no honors and you and you sort of thing series called monetary series and essentially it says that it's actually quite a good thing for governments to port because when they borrow they are issuing government bottoms and those bonds are trying to wilkes i just to be very simple can't simplify the budget you know where does your pension come from. yeah you're you're you have to save what can you see even well you can't you know your pension fund buys government loans government borrowing is actually quite a good thing because the local term underpins people's pensions so there might well be a rethink across the world about borrowing government borrowing and making and see this as a positive thing that we see in the year of the stairs who are the last 20 years

but that would be a very substantial change in economic thinking when the economy isabella's indebted as they will be a melting from this crisis after the napoleonic wars in europe after of the world wars of the 20th century that have they tended to be followed by a period of austerity which has been justified on the basis of balancing the books . well i mean the curious thing if you look at the 2nd world works the best i could remember. was that there was an initial view yes you know having your vast about some of it mean the british national debt was running it twice of g.d.p. be twice what it is in the moment. it was in him and we had thought well maybe we have to you know tighten our belts and and pay all the sauce but i mean that actually didn't happen at the end of the 2nd world war they more or less grew our

way out of it the americans. bless the cotton socks came up with a marshall plan and came up a lot of money in the initial $8.00 but by the by the 1950 s. we were actually ordering a lot more and we moved over to funding the economy through. personal debt and that they should watch of public debt left over from fighting the war the that was just left there really suited to the end of the 1960 s. and aggression lost it served its real value through inflation so the actually you know the lesson of the 2nd world war is that we didn't really rush to a sterritt see we had 20 or 30 years of quite positive growth and inflation and let the debt just disappear in real terms i suspect there will be. over you know the stereotype forces growing the economy and i think the bankers

always get kind of conservative but this might be pressure or pressuring the chancellor syrup so to move towards the stairs but i think you will find it very difficult in political terms to get away with that once people come out of what. i think we're into a new clear it will be a big debates about how to get out of this and i think political movements that just simply want to go back to the old the stairs light of business i think they will find it very difficult to achieve that. and finally george kevan if you were still gracing the green benches of the house of commons what policy single policy prescription would we be offering to the the chancellor as. a way of helping to come out of this economic crisis and poor policy option do you believe the scottish government should be pursuing to assure that the if but new thinking to meet these different times well the policy that has bubbled up or is not is now brasil basic

income yankee be yours a sense get rid of all the old baggage and a bureaucracy of of the different welfare systems to show work anyway which people too busy trying to you know so in order forms and which are means tested let's just have a basic income that everybody gets which takes care of basic needs and that in a sense save your money to get rid of all of the bureaucracy and it saves you a lot of the mental health problems of current people through these hoops and actually creates you know a kind of. civics coming together so that people can begin to concentrate on rebuilding the economy thinking you are used to rebuilding the economy and so on so i think universal p.c. income is going to become the issue that we will be discussing over the next period i knew just that the the new social justice and fairness commission that they scorched up and set up is discussing this and i think i'm looking forward in time.

we're going to see that major change occurring you actually have the welfare state is organized does calvin from edinburgh find you very much for joining us once again on the alex salmond show. we can now see pretty clearly the shape of the world economic response to the onset of the 1000 crisis most finance ministers of amed how it sells the pandemic with varying degrees of success the real question is the jud ability of the crisis and those countries which have been pretty successful in containing the virus taiwan south korea germany greece new zealand are still looking with trepidation at those countries in western europe the united states of america which are still struggling and indeed the increasing signs that so for america is being grouped by the pandemic they know this successful countries know that what old economic recovery depends on world control

of the virus in that sense we are most definitely all in this together. in the u.k. increasing questions are being asked as to why it's only now 3 months into the crisis that the comprehensive system of contact tracing is only just getting off the ground control of the violence stomping down on the infection would seem to be a prerequisite for economic recovery not on off the fought for this little boy aiming big guns at the economy if it's peashooters was a big game the public health and so from the self and all the show it's good bye for now stay safe and we'll see you again next week.

here's a new cold war isn't played this time waged against china what are the terms of engagement what does it mean to win this conflict and is all out war possible how did the u.s. and its alliance our just find themselves in this situation. you are no offense but you no longer a young woman in fact you are one of the last living survivors of the nazi yeah let's ask i'm aware of that. leverage at. all you like and you can never forget america now auschwitz was really like to be inhaled close you would never believe that one. can do to as obviously

a cause for 3 years of growth and be very bad at all seems a lot. by your side you'll make it. when i get out on the farm saw you know. next to you so he can listen and hopefully bless. you can't be both with yeah you like. my.

headline stories this hour the u.k. government admits it made a choice to leave care homes tested for a coronavirus so it could solely focus on the n.h.s. but the admission sparks outrage from relatives who lost family members. oh man she wasn't ready it happened to task why so many residents in kathmandu have asked why we need someone since rarely as to why this is going on time. while in france prosecutors open probes into the deaths of some current home residents cells bereaved relatives lay the blame squarely at the door of those running the facility.