hello and welcome the cross not we're all things are considered on here level counting the cost and charting the future when the pandemic appearing to recede it is time to assess the economic damage how has the crisis changed the global economy and if there's going to be a recovery will be and are there lessons to be learned. in

the global economy i'm joined now by u.s. and lee in new york she is author of will china's economy collapse and what the u.s. can learn from china and in ankara we crossed the road. he is a professor of econometrics as well as the president of the foundation for international economic research and. roles in effect i mean you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate what you're going to annan in new york as i said in my introduction and it appears that the pandemic is receding and globally although individual countries still have some serious issues but now is coming in the next phase of this crisis and figuring out the damage that has been incurred and how to move forward and you know in preparing for this program there are all wild estimations out there you know the elbe the you all of that. there seems to be no consensus so there seems to be it seems to be politically driven depending on how much you. that 11 letter 3 here what is your thinking here because the

terrain is changed a lot and even if when things start opening up a lot of people are very hesitant to spend because no one knows what the recovery is going to look like it's going to be a self-referential issue for him yes i think there's also no agreement as to what indicators are going to look at. inter member whether this is going to be an l.d.r. you there are folks who point to the stock market. and they basically say oh you know since it's rocketing that means and things are looking well people don't realize that the financial markets now are very much decoupled from the real economy because. we know that as more money gets invest and it in various corporations that means it is going to be. fewer people actually

going to get employed because these investments are going into technology into robotics into artificial intelligence and so yes maybe individual corporations might do better coming out of this crisis but for the average person they're going to be even faced maybe they're facing weaker prospects going forward and so i think that that's clearly one area of disagreement. i think that there are so many variables there that makes it very difficult to. come to any. sort of consensus in terms of what it's going to look like because a lot of countries are going to have various policies. in terms of what they're going to roll out and that's going to have different effects and so what we're going to see in china i'm sure is going to be very different from what we'll see in the u.s.

and that is why it's going to be very difficult to do you know one of the interesting things if and didn't use the word that there's going to there are elements of protectionism that have to be thought about here they'd be able really i'm thinking about borders in a way that they haven't for a very long time and that's certainly one pretty negative localization one of the things that really worries me is that 1st of all we had 200-2009 millions and millions tens of millions of people around the world particularly in the western world never recovered from that tragedy and now we have this one and this is all in totally different magnitude from the bottom up not the top down and it particularly the case i know best is the american case we have another massive shift of wealth to the wealthiest ok and the one of the issues that imo. concern with this growing inequality and it was pretty bad before this happened and now it is rated at a speed that is and i'm going to have to agree with dan i mean there are so many

indicators out there it's hard to understand what that magnitude is but i think it's pretty fair to say that it is. order of magnitude greater than it was in 2100 we dress that go ahead. then the latest aircraft i have ever. changed well let's start with i'd probably agree with. me because we are making him stink by looking at their financial indicators on the line talking about the real difference of. the. us so far as ansett the financial war popular as we are become too from the real economy but the point is. as you mention. there is going to be. radical structural changes in teams that are working specifically in terms of the group of decision something with my 980 s. peter. who runs asian has expanded and. has

you know become killing only closer and closer integration among the economies. as we call it for now i mean our i see a new mode of globalization i call if you like a lot to say the short of globalization by shortly after claiming that it by short globalization i mean there from our war specifically says there is this in our broken lives which is you know in the lives side of the economy. some mayors will start looking at more than a local local part of global you know like you know turkey's going to look for some place in russia you know we are in european union instead of looking for someplace in china and united states. because of. as i said

there's something within 1800. patients has been based or export benny and that. collusion you know between 1950 s. and the 1980 s. . in the physician was a. substitution you know of the 1980 s. it has become a sport oriented things are says ation so much for all now to be known from polluted from europe we cannot change the sex of the colonies investor is the sex of. economies as in all of us have to be now welcome news you know of a couple of the cheats depending on how things are going to have it all from our sources we have now you know as. well we have open economies now we need to get an international partner. point now is the question is when we are going to get is part with lives that's what i'm calling sure local station in the same

way you told your answers if it could be much more regionalized ok if you into my life but i'm not meaning you know by you know i'm not talking about the last day again ok i'm not talking about regional unions economic unions i'm just walking about regional economic relations markets much more closer originally coming from it's not china who is going to go to china to asia and one of the things i've been thinking a lot about since this crisis started and i'm a very harsh critic of most elements of globalization i make a very clear to my viewers that it seems to me that in the west globalization took on the form of financial ization with a country like china actually made real things real economy seats a globalization a real economy versus if the globalization of any actual ization and i think that that is going to cost will we see it right now a lot of tensions because they're very different interpretations of how you benefit

from globalization go ahead yes i would say that the way the u.s. has activist called. it was a show that was really about. wishing their corporate profits around the world and in the countries that invited us corporations in they clearly saw their people benefit from it because there was no real investment in their infrastructure and. then until china came along. you know globalization was such that it was really a one way street to the us once china came along and suddenly you saw a lot of profitability around the world. where local economies got to benefit and grow and. and so though the pie was actually getting

larger and so. i would say that in this case after this crisis is over i don't agree i think that there is going to be a fracturing of supply chain because of political reasons and if that the u.s. clearly wants to go its own way there are id you know pressuring companies to bring back their productions locally. i mean i think you know i have i think we just have to be realistic i mean that horse left the barn 20 years ago ok i understand the rhetoric and i understand the political impetus behind it but realistically speaking that is like a stalin 5 year plan a harsh one ok i mean it doesn't work that way in the west they'll get well maybe out of this crisis will work that way by us i don't know you know i'm just saying is that you know intellectually you understand that in because but the reality on the ground i don't see what it what is the u.s.

government going to do so both force under sanction of american companies investing abroad i mean you know again you know could listen to the senate floor it all sounds patriot. not in the flag and every the music's playing but at the end of the day sheryl you say whoa really going right i think it's really under realistic it's hard for any. realistic economist to to see how this develops because you supply chains are very complex so. just to make something very simple like shoes why did those companies that used to make it in china like moved it down to be a nom because you know they wanted to access cheaper labor than now they've left vietnam and went to western china because they discovered that importing is a rubber from you know malaysia or cambodia you know was difficult unless they ordered large amounts trying to get the number of people to make the shoes.

you know they would strike if they didn't get he raises so they discover that there are so many other issues when they try to move their operations out of china and so they discovered that the station sees the complexities you know make more sense to stay in there and this multiplies 10 times a 1000 times more when you're talking about say electronic goods you know an apple i phone steve i mean tim cook has very much sense that it's not possible to do it any other place other than china and so because of all these companies that feed into the supply chain is the u.s. is going to try to make their cars just in the u.s. like good luck because you have. all the right where we should be laughing because this is it a real crisis you've been you're absolutely right i mean you've already laid out very clearly becomes like city building shoes what about you know a car a computer

a smart phone you're absolutely right go back to any group before you go to the break years i mean is that really kind of been to with some of the the well. what you're calling a short localization call. if the material isn't. where they're going to mentalities and they're going you know. when you've got all the world you know have changed dramatically. no. chains you know there are small chains i mean use of chains and you and he chauncey edging one of those you know chain chains where the great jimmy is me before were before the me he had a very weighty long chain so ok but now we are going. through local chains and you know. i have to i have to jump in here we're going to go to a short break and after that you're getting your discussion on the global economy and the recovery states are.

all. you cannot be both with yeah you're walking. to my. horror one else seemed wrong all but all all all just don't call. me i'll get to shape out this thing called the etiquette and gentleman because betrayal all over when something find themselves worlds apart.

just to look for common ground. well i'm out across the uk where all things are considered i remind you we're talking about the global economy and the recovery. i want to go back to you. it's going to focus on the u.s. china. show because that's really what it is your own. home. if you put you positive the question that you know because of the way the supply chains are right now and i kind of reacted to it it's going to be very difficult to chase and change that arrangement of decoupling is possible i mean if that but honestly. you monk is economic decision to make because these are

not just state actors these are private actors their shareholders their them sooners and all of this i mean do you see this kind of just as a 2020 november general election issue to get past all of this because the reaction in the united states it was far from perfect and i'm being very generous right now with decoupling that is a tremendous pass to go down and i don't think people after what you've just said to us about shoes and then you know about i phones you think they owe it to sions and business leaders understand the magnitude of making that decision i think that politicians and certain policy makers in washington. mander stand it but they don't care and the reason is this they see this competition to china as a big national security issue because they're so worried about. china eclipsing

the u.s. in economic and political power around the world and they look at the situation in the us and think there's no way they're going to be able to compete with china as a population that is you know 3 times larger or times larger and they. don't have the u.s. doesn't produce the same number of engineers that china does and so they think that the only way that they can stop china's rise and end maintain a superpower status is by trying to throw really radical policies there to disrupt. all and shueisha in and out forcibly probably you know create a depression like situation because then nobody can grow and therefore the u.s. will still maintain its economic leverage in that case what you want to look at

that with the kind of disruption in pretty clearly clearly where the u.s. economy is in a deep recession ok what is going to happen the next you quarters is anyone's guess but i think as we speak right now there is a deep recession here and we in the unemployment numbers tell you everything you need to know but i mean that is that from what you're saying that just spikes ok if we can't be number one we can't be prosperous the way we were reporting this pandemic nobody will be i mean if that is the law that's a bullying approach that's not looking for answers the process go back to angry here i mean it is sort of like the poet and have to say here i mean. this is this means that the lead salut west particularly the 9 states not understand that the it's not military power this is going to solve problems it's a country that's best that are in deep ok that is this revolution there we're experiencing in the global economy right now and as i said there's financial ization there's really going to be a development of globalization and i'll whoever is going to round up the bull by

the horns the research and development is going to be one is going to be supreme and maybe even use the word hedge a monic if you want go ahead and you. think not doesn't happen. and hasn't hurt me is you know in this sort of that has been said many times that he has not even be productive with improvements enough. for you know for sure for things to be cute or. not in the long run this. you know who you meet those chinese they know they can live you don't mean resonance in the mini. the u.s. and invest in economies in general but i think the short run we have to take into grant that you know one 4th of all g.d.p. is by the united states and another one for. p.v.

and approximately one for the chinese you know she's about turkey per cent so in the miniature. economy i mean answers that hands off the united states and the rest so. if you are going to talk about how his you know through our. economy before. you know us is according to me it is more advantages that it's very well and get it it seems to me and when we go to you. this rhetoric is coming out of washington i mean correct me if i'm wrong here but if this is the assumption that if the united states feels that believes that china needs the u.s. more than the u.s. needs china i mean i think that's a that's a that's not to take that's not absolutely true and certainly not clear i mean again if the u.s. is always talking about global norms ok but it's only the norms of day here too and

everyone else's house doing it here is their interpretation i mean isn't that a risky proposition that they need us more than we need them go ahead. yeah i remember reading somewhere that when the u.s. think tanks try to do an inventory like how many things have chinese parts and you know obviously are imported from china and it was so high that they actually could not publish it and has kept that you know a state secret because i just assumed that you know it's nice to just i saw the same thing and it had actually to do very specifically with the defense department and how. many of the supply chains of their own equipment that they buy from producers american quote unquote it's all outsourced everywhere else i mean there is some of these weapons systems there are a percentage of the parts and components are like 708090 percent out sourced from

abroad ok i think we're on the same wavelength here i mean we're making my point right here you could make that snap decision but then you could be left holding the bag for a very long time and that in itself is a national security risk as they would see it right and so therefore if they say that. china needs seen us more than us needs china. i think that again it's probably rather it because they haven't backed it up with very specific examples if you just talk about import export numbers that really doesn't tell the whole story and i think that. you know the election year could be playing into this rhetoric but if the u.s. really is serious about trying to stop you know the trajectory of china's growth.

you know they're going to end up hurting the u.s. economy in the baby as well and i think some of the elites have made this calculation and said well. that's fine because we still dominate in the financial sector we still dominate in. the internet technology like cyber security and so forth. and so they probably feel that in specific areas that are important and strategic in terms of. media and financial control and so forth that maybe they still hold the cards and it's possible they still think that because the wrong certainly is still relying on the u.s. dollar to a great extent as a world reserve currency and so the u.s. continues to sanctions as a way into. you know ben countries to their will and and so i think that they're

probably looking at it from that standpoint. as to the rest of the economy not about it too and i think it is such a grave mistake to the use the dollar is a political weapon because all you do is devalue the dollar i mean they must be our currency but i define it as something that you everyone universally house trusts in but if it's starting to start manipulating it serves very specific and selfish political ends then people are going to me we received a dollar is a shit going on all the time it's not happening quickly i agree but more and more countries are exchanging goods in their own currencies and it is because the perception that they don't want to be suddenly sanctioned by the united states for the last time i'd. remember a country that forced other countries to trade with the soviet union and now the united states is saying who you can trade with who you can be friends with here is go back to angry here a lot of people are saying they come billing is inevitable and a pain to our discussion with and we've all agreed that

a sudden decoupling would be disastrous for everybody for the global economy it's just mindlessly stupid to think well in the longer term you'll have to internet you'll have to operating systems and essentially don't be asking enjoying one of the other ok i do see that that's a possibility in the mid-term and long term but how we get there will be very messy to say the least keep going on a. first before i guess we are making him sleep in talking about just. what you came to believe. now linkage is impossible. but on the other hand if you are not going to be able to solve. it is if you do not have demand than there's no point in. what we are picturing meaning by this looming out of the u.s.

and the quest for his fortune for sure. is those years economy and. western economies if they. exist and you can the size of the man the man you know who purchasing power would say and that's the best you know we have we have to keep that money but i i partly agree with you that you know. people want to service the number of features or suffer the. loss of goods and services that are jaded will be less and less so you know his particular that that he'd been sort of you know sort of a couple in here trucked. i'm. bipolar and both of these the. new global markets we are. seeing less and less than $1000000.00 of. our. last 30 seconds do you i think though that point we just heard is absolutely

amazing it will be more a monopolistic and will be more expensive and less choices for consumers this path that the us is going on it is a bad one for world trade go ahead right i think what we're seeing inside the us is going to. collaborate around the world and what we're seeing here us is that it's a middle class is disappearing so what one percent is getting much wealthier and it's becoming like a economy that's strong about 300 years we're going into a new colonialism in which you have a super wealthy and then poor people everywhere that's not there's a great word for it and it's called serfdom the return of serfdom. many thanks to my guest in new york and in anchorage and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here in our d.c. annex not remember us up to. join

me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm showbusiness i'll see of that. god no no crown. no shots. actually there's a bell to be. no it's to. quench your thirst for action.

because. give me my best cup with this lithium he said. just that. i like it. is not bland but i'm also the most companies you know i've been a kid who says you know. when i meet a. compass he will speak almost pianist to me nobody gets me did he know just to say he is pro you know i call. them and i'm going to hit a c. for nothing that you see live in the room you have a kind of this. in the kit is he. can think always stay in this album they have them in the bottom ok you're mysterious into no money so they can see you so no men because the.

former new york governor george pataki who helped lead his state through the devastating aftermath of 911 is here with his take on the federal and state level response to the coronavirus it's all on this edition of politics. one of the politicking on larry king he slammed andrew cuomo in new york scolded 19 nursing home deaths he also once warned donald trump could drive the g.o.p. over the cliff he's a former republican governor george pataki of new york he helped that state through the devastating aftermath of september 11th he's. doing what he calls america's great don't.