rostock in the global economy i'm joined by my guests and we in new york's she is author of will china's economy collapse and what the u.s. can learn from china and in ankara we cross to. learn he is a professor of econometrics as well as the president of the foundation for international economic research and. cross that rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate what you're going to hand in in new york as i said in my introduction and it appears that the pen demick is receding and globally though individual countries still have some serious issues but now is coming in the next phase of this crisis and figuring out the damage that has been incurred and how to move forward and you know in preparing for this program they're all wild estimations out there you know the l. the you all of that. there seems to be no consensus though there seems to be it seems to be politically driven depending on how much you cut it 11 letter 3 here

what is your thinking here because the terrain is changed a lot and even if one things start opening up a lot of people are very hesitant to spend because no one knows what the recovery is going to look like it's kind of a self-referential issue go ahead yes i think there's also no agreement as to what indicators important to look at. and term and whether this is going to be an l.d.r. you there are folks who point to the stock market. and they basically say oh you know since it's rocketing that means that things are looking up well in polls don't realize that the financial markets now are very much decoupled from the real economy because. we know that as more money gets invest in it in various corporations that means it is going to be. fewer people actually

going to get employed because these investments are going into technology into robotics and artificial intelligence and so yes maybe individual corporations might do better coming out of this crisis but for the average person they're going to probably be even faced maybe they're facing weaker prospects going forward and so i think that that's clearly one area of disagreement. i think that there are so many variables out there that makes it very difficult to . come to any. sort of consensus and in terms of what it's going to look like because a lot of countries are going to have various policies. in terms of what they're going to roll out and that's going to have different effects and so what we're going to see and china i'm sure is going to be very different from what we'll see in the u.s.

and that is life's going to be very difficult to know one of the interesting things is and didn't use the word that there's going to there are elements of protectionism that have to be thought about here they'd be able really i'm thinking about borders in a way that they haven't for a very long time and that's certainly one critique negative of globalization one of the things that really worries me is that 1st of all we had 200-2009 millions and millions tens of millions of people around the world particularly in the western world never recovered from that tragedy and now we have this one and this is all in totally different magnitude from the bottom up not the top down and particularly the case i know best is the american case we have another massive shift of wealth to the the wealthiest ok and the one of the issues that i'm most concerned with is growing inequality and it was pretty bad before this happened and now it is rated at a speed that is and i'm going to have to agree with dan i mean there are so many indicators

out there it's hard to understand what that magnitude is but i think it's pretty fair to say that it is. over of magnitude greater than it was in 2000 and how do you address that go ahead. then we need to scare her to have ever. again. well let's start with i'll probably leave it. because we are making him stink by looking at their financial indicators on the line talking about the real difference of in some. sense that you have a financial war who probably as you know become people from the real economy but the point is. as you mention there is going to be. radical structural changes in themes that are working specifically in terms of globalization something with my 980 s. peter. who runs asian has expanded and. has

you know become even only closer and closer integration among those economies. as we call it for now i mean our i see a new mode of globalization. if you like a lot like you said short of globalization by shortly after claiming that it by short globalization i mean there from our war specifically says there is this in our broken lives which is you know in the lives side of the economy and some mayors will start looking at more than a local local part of global you know like you know turkey's going to look for someplace in russia you know we're in european union instead of looking for someplace in china and united states. because of since as i

said we're starting with 1800. patients has been based or export and then that's. crucial you know between 1950 s. and the 1980 s. . in the physician was. substitution you know after $1008.00 is it has become a sport oriented things are says ation so much for all now to be from pollute more of it and then change the sex of the investor is the sex of the economist has to be in all of us have to be now or. he's you know of a couple of the cheats depending on how things are going to hear a lot from our sources we have now you know as. well we have more political movements now we need to get an international partner. point now is the question is when we are going to get is part was lives that's what i'm calling sure local

station we are in a similar way you told your answers if it could be much more regionalized ok if you into my life but i'm not meaning you know by you know i'm not talking about the last day again ok i'm not talking about regional unions economic unions i'm just all talking about regional economic relations marts much more closer originally coming from the look at china who is going to go to china to asia and one of the things i've been thinking a lot about since this crisis started and i'm a very harsh critic of most elements of globalization i make a very clear to my viewers that it seems to me that in the west globalization took on the form of financial ization with a country like china actually made real things real economy seats a global position of real economy versus if the globalization of any actual ization and i think that that is going to cost will we see it right now a lot of tensions because they're very different interpretations of how you benefit

from globalization go ahead yes i would say that the way the u.s. has activist called. it was a show that was really about. wishing their corporate profits around the world and in the countries that invited us corporations in they rarely saw their people benefit from it because there was no real investment in their infrastructure and. then until china came along. you know globalization was such that it was really a one way street to the us once china came along and suddenly you saw a lot of profitability around the world. where local economies got to benefit and grow and. and so the pie was actually getting larger

and so. i would say that in this case after this crisis is over i do agree i think that there is going to be a fracturing of supply chain because of political reasons and that the u.s. clearly wants to go its own way there are 80 you know pressuring companies to bring back their productions locally. i mean i think you know i have i think we just have to be realistic i mean that horse left the barn 20 years ago ok i understand the rhetoric and i understand the political impetus behind it but realistically speaking that is like a stalin 5 year plan a harsh one ok i mean it doesn't work that way in the west ok well maybe out of this crisis all right that may be us i don't know you know i'm just saying is that you know intellectually you understand the impetus but the reality on the ground i don't see what it what is the u.s.

government going to do both force under sanction of american companies investing abroad i mean you know again you know could listen to the senate floor it also is a patriot. radhika the flag and every the music's playing but at the end of the day sheryl you say whoa really going right i think it's really under realistic it's hard for any. realistic economist to to see how this develops because you supply chains are very complex so. just to make something very simple like shoes why did those companies that used to make it in china like moved it down to be it not because you know they wanted to access cheaper labor than now they've left vietnam and went to western china because they discovered that importing is a rubber from you know malaysia or cambodia you know was difficult unless they ordered large amounts trying to get the number of people to make the shoes.

you know they would strike if they didn't get she raises so they discover that there are so many other issues when they try to move their operations out of china and so they discovered that the station sees the complexities you know make more sense to stay in there and this multiplies 10 times a 1000 times more when you're talking about say electronic goods you know an apple i phone steve i mean tim cook has very much sense that it's not possible to do it any other place other than china and so because of all these companies that feed into the supply chain is the u.s. is going to try to make their cars just in the u.s. like good luck because you have. all the evidence gets right where we shouldn't be laughing because this is it a real crisis you've been you're absolutely right i mean you've already laid out very clearly become plug city building shoes what about you know a car a computer

a smart phone you're absolutely right go back to andrew before we go to the break yours i mean is that really kind of been to with some of the the well. what you're calling a short globalization going missing the terrorism. where they live mentalities and their you know. how when you get all the world you know change in my thinking my knowledge. the chains you know there are small jeans and useful chains and you come on each top see edging in one of those you know all chain chains one of the great to me is me before before the bonded me we had very very long chain smoking but now we are going. through local chains and you know. i have to i have to jump in here we're going to go with short break and after that you're over to continue our discussion on the global economy and the recovery state our.

ah no team no crowd. no shots. actually helps because. let's track no 1st one. point should your thirst for action. have a handle on this one and i was going to sway the both of us who call us have alec itself in order to get out of the closet us we've got to talk it's a hard life the thing crap and i have the discipline to see what the look like that i want and i don't miss

a lot and i think. this is the only thing that we do that is music because everybody flights a day his own weight. i'm sure you can move the food without a visible facility that. we have at. home. thank god i think is this is the fans that is something thank. you. welcome back to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm here alone to remind you we're talking about the global economy and the recovery.

and let me go back to you. it's going to focus on the u.s. china. show because that's really what it is here. if you put you positive the question that you know because of the way the supply chains are right now and i kind of reacted to it it's going to be very difficult to chase and change that arrangement of decoupling is possible i mean if that but honestly. you monk is economic decision to make because these are not just state actors these are private actors their shareholders their of them sooners and all of this i mean do you see this kind of just as a 2020 november general election issue to get past all of this because then the reaction in the united states it was far from perfect and i'm being very generous right now with the couple lee that is a tremendous pass to go down and i don't think people after what you just said to

us about shoes and then you know about i phones you think they owe it to sions and business leaders understand the magnitude of making that decision i think that politicians and certain policy makers in washington. may understand it but they don't care and the reason is this they see this competition to china as a big national security issue because they're so worried about china eclipsing the u.s. in economic and political power around the world and they look at the situation in the us and think there's no way they're going to be able to compete with china as a population that is you know 3 times larger or times larger and they. don't have the us doesn't produce the same number of engineers that china does and so they think that the only way that they can stop china's rise and end maintain

a superpower status is by trying to throw really radical policies there to disrupt. all and shueisha in and out forcibly probably you know create a depression like situation because then nobody can grow and therefore the u.s. will still maintain its economic leverage in that case what you want to look at that with the kind of disruption in pretty clearly clearly where the u.s. economy is in a deep recession ok what is going to happen the next year quarters is anyone's guess but i think as we speak right now there is a deep recession here and we in the unemployment numbers tell you everything you need to know but i mean that is that from what you're saying that just by ok if we can't be number one we can't be prosperous the way we were before this pandemic nobody will be i mean that is the law that's

a bully approach that's not looking for answers go back to angry here i mean it is sort of like the poet and have to say here i mean. this is this means that the lead salut west particularly the 9 states not understand that the it's not military power this is going to solve problems it's a country that's best that are in deep ok that is this revolution there we're experiencing in the global economy right now and as i said there's financial position there is really going to be a development of globalization and el whoever is going to grab the bull by the horns the research and development is going to be the one is going to be supreme and maybe even use the word hedge a monic if you want go ahead and you. think which doesn't have. the fix and we've moved on and hasn't hurt me you know in this sort of that has been said many times that he has not even be very productive it improves enough.

for you know for her for things to be cute or. the focus of much in the long run is. you know who you beagles chinese think nordic and then we don't mean they're going to go many throughout the u.s. and invest in economies in general i think the short run we have to take into grant that you know one 4th of all g.d.p. is for the united states and another one for. the books of the run for the chinese you know she's about turkey per cent so when the. economy i'm announces that hands off the united states and the rest so. if you are going to talk about how his you know through our. economy you know before. you know us is according to me it is more expensive it's very well and get it it

seems to me and let me go to you. this rhetoric is coming out of washington i mean correct me if i'm wrong here but if this is the assumption that if the united states feels that believes that china needs the u.s. more than the u.s. needs china i mean i think that's a that's a that's not to take that's not absolutely true and certainly not clear i mean again if the u.s. is always talking about global norms ok but it's only the norms of day here too and everyone else's house doing it here is their interpretation i mean isn't that a risky proposition that they need us more than we need them go ahead. yeah i remember reading somewhere that when the u.s. think tanks try to do an inventory like how many things have chinese parts and you know obviously are imported from china and it was so high that they actually could not publish it and has kept that you know

a state secret because i just assumed that you know it's nice i saw the same thing and it had actually to do very specifically with the defense department and how. many of the supply chains of their own equipment that they buy from producers american quote unquote it's all out source everywhere else i mean it is some of these weapon systems their percentage of the parts and components are like 708090 percent out sourced from abroad ok i think we're on the same wavelength here i mean we're making my point right here you could make a snap decision but then you could be left holding the bag for a very long time and that in itself is a national security risk as they would see it right and so therefore if they say that. china needs seen us more than us needs china. i think that

again it's probably rather it because they haven't backed it up with very specific examples if you just talk about import export numbers that really doesn't tell the whole story and i think that. you know the election year could be playing into this rhetoric which but if the u.s. really is serious about trying to stop you know the trajectory of china's growth. you know they're going to end up hurting the u.s. economy and the baby as well and i think some of the elites have made this calculation and said well. that's fine because we still dominate in the financial sector we still dominate in. the internet technology like cyber security and so forth. and so they probably feel that in specific areas that are important and strategic in terms of.

media and financial control and so forth that maybe they still hold the cards and it's possible they still think that because the wrong certainly is still relying on the u.s. dollar to a great extent as a world reserve currency and so the u.s. continues to use sanctions as a way to. you know bend countries to their will and and so i think that they're probably looking at it from that standpoint. as to the rest of the car about it too and i think it is such a grave mistake to the use the dollar is a political weapon because all you do is devalue the dollar i mean they be our currency but i define this is something that you everyone universally house trusts in but it's starting to if you start manipulating it serves a very specific and selfish political ends then people are going to me we received

a dollar is a shit going on all the time it's not happening quickly i agree but more and more countries are exchanging goods in their own currencies and it is because the perception that they don't want to be suddenly saying sion by the united states for the last time i'd. remember a country that forced other countries to trade with the soviet union and now the united states is saying who you can trade with who you can be friends with here is go back to angry here a lot of people are saying they can't billing is inevitable on a plane when there are discussion with and we've all agreed that a sudden decoupling would be disastrous for everybody for the global economy when it's just in terms of mindlessly stupid to think well in the longer term you'll have to internet you'll have to operating systems and essentially don't be asking enjoying one of the other ok i do see that that's a possibility in the mid-term and long term but how we get there will be very messy to say the least keep going on

a. first before i guess we are making him sleep in the talking about just. what you came in terms of. now linkage is impossible. but on the other hand if you are not able to solve. it is if you do not have demand than his no point in. what we are actually meaning by the looming out of the us and the quest for his fortune in 4 short term is this . year's economy and the western economies if they. are just sitting beside him and the man you know the purchasing power does that and that's the best you know we have we have to keep that money but i i partly agree with you that you know new people want to service the number of features 'd

a certain sense of. loss of goods and services that are to change that will be less and less so you know his particular that that he'd been sort of you know sort of the company in here trucked. time. but all the both of these the you know the global markets we are. seeing less and less than $1000000.00. hours. and last 30 seconds to you i think though that point we just heard is absolutely amazing it will be more a monopolistic and will be more expensive and less choices for consumers this path that the u.s. is going on it is a bad one for world trade going. right i think what we're seeing inside the u.s. is going to. collaborate around the world and what we're seeing here us is that it's the middle class is disappearing so what one percent is getting much wealthier

and it's becoming like a economy that's strong about 300 years we're going into a new colonialism in which you have a super wealthy and then poor people everywhere that's right there is a great word for it and it's called serfdom the return of serfdom. many thanks to my guest in new york and in anchorage and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time remember. join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm showbusiness i'll see you then.

go next idea. give me my best bid because what good is human and we said. we're just at home as. there's enough land. but imo the most companies he knows are going to give those the theater ways a lot of muscle when anyone. has come to see most few dollars from pianists even though he goes from didn't you know i was going to say he has put a you will get through i called. him and someone the i'm going to hit us in the nuts and i've seen it in the local you i don't like item is beautiful. look it is he kills him medical that alfie kohn thing always stay in this album did a little bit of them ok your list to monitor so to you can see it goes oh no men because here.

we go to work so you straight home. know what's a clip of she will know you sleep. good money my it's always at the back i was a guy who more work on the late. well you know. they can trust the wouldn't. you if they want to keep.

the. yes but. the rest in minneapolis sees the police station torched by protesters as period about the death and police custody of a black man across the united states. from further relaxes lockdowns starting june the 2nd easing restrictions on cafes park on travel then find the country. and a new study shows a surge in prescriptions but to depressants in the u.s. with doctors raising the alarm about the risks of addiction.