sort of permanent 2nd class status in a u.s. led system and i think it's pretty clear that russia in particular has been pushing back on that the assumptions that a lot of u.s. policymakers i wouldn't actually put the at the top of the list there the person. actually on albright who was the secretary of state for president clinton she made the comments in 99 when she said look if we have to use force it's because where the united states we stand tall we see further than anybody else and sort of we know what's what's good for everybody well actually can see the number i think they have gotten my next question if the well is populated by the sneaks and the jonathans who is the wound down is it and i hate that white knight in shining armor you know this is a great question and actually i had to add. a note to the to the book to specify what i mean by the west so you know i'm a military analyst i'm not

a partisan political person answer when i use the term the west what i mean is 2 things one are geo political entities are generally u.s. led you know western countries naser the western alliance and the u.s. but i also include in that definition countries that fight in the same way that the us fights and it's really a military definition which a couple of years before was his testimony was the basis for the u.s. victory in the 1st gulf war and i kind of argue in the book that that victory actually force pretty much everybody else to adapt and evolve in response to u.s. military dominance and the u.s. perhaps has become a little bit stagnant because it hasn't had to face an adaptive landscape that others have had to deal with each side just a moment ago that are in your book here. specifically building our game and around

the fact that after 99 to wind the west was left to fly be snakes while the dragons lay down once and watched closely from baghdad how to fly the west and now the last. deal when the black this nation the dragons don't have the same nods of why it will not be russia or china at lower trying have. adapted western areas killed a captive them a problem chatteris they don't belong on airplanes they don't use terror as bad. even if they are in a 2 month these huge very different kinds of action into the same category as acclaim and they're essentially using the same methods the the book talks about dragons and snakes is being very different but what's really different in the book

from a lot of the research that you'll see in a lot of the analysis on military an attention is that it actually draws on a different body of knowledge from what we normally years so most military and it. is really a subset of business literature what i've done is to draw on which is just from the science of evolutionary theory. looking at adaptive landscapes and the way that a dominant president in an ecosystem creates a landscape that everybody else in that ecosystem has to adapt to and i think it is interesting i don't in any way. or suggest an equivalence between say the russian federation an islamic state in any way or the opposite actually but what i am saying is that everybody whoever they are whatever the basis for existence is reacting to the in the period after 9 straight to us military dominance and one of

the interesting things actually. is that people have started to copy each other and one of the case studies i $22.00 is the co-evolution of israel and hezbollah which is just a very clean example because it's a small geographical area in southern lebanon where these 2 people or 2 groups have been fighting each other for going on 40 years and you see over time they become to resemble each other in terms of their tactics not a new way morally right but in terms of the way that they are. now. in your book here also suggest or least several mechanisms of adaptation away the evolution of anime including what you call artificial selection that is the west inadvertently build a barrier at class of terrorism by the way it's got its war on terror and i want to see is on the word in a bird and maybe the last one deliberately uses militant terrorist groups

it was a letter from afghanistan to syria it's it's hard to find a place that wasn't done. if our knight in shining armor wasn't trying to trying to sneak some ice don't you think that you know it would have a detrimental effect on dabbling. so yeah i think one of the points that i make is that it is a bell curve in evolutionary pressure if any so you assume a dominant factor in their ecosystem and then everybody else is adapting to the pressure they're getting from that act if the pressure on them is too low or too little those that know if the pressure is too high they'll be destroyed and we've seen that with some groups but there's a sort of band in the middle in the middle of the bell curve where you're putting enough pressure on an adversary to force them to adapt and get better but not enough to destroy them and. i'm actually add to any. to really not only you

can see russia and china as adversaries because i'm not sure that you're specifically now calling those adversarial i know that from history but it wasn't always the case the united states and the west deliberately supported a number of those groups starting from al qaida and many of the militant groups are leaving serious isn't really about to fight adversary so much as you know like me having an expression here in russia to sort of. give our sneak a bit of space and it's half the line we warm up needs that was amusing in the book are not about russia and china they're about non-state actors are the specific example that i point to in the book their experience one is the way that israeli counterterrorism since the ninety's actually created a better cost of palestinian terrorists and my sources for that the surviving heads

of shin bet which is the internal at the f.s.a. approval in israel and they are the 1st to say that the way that they approached this problem was as they describe it point specific old tactic snow strategy and that over time they actually bred a more capable adversary i also point to the u.s. i think there the way that we operated in particular in pakistan put enough pressure on the pakistanis how than to make them danna to creighton into a single unified organization and take them from a bunch of guerrilla groups in a valley in pakistan to a transnational act by 2010 right now seeing attacks in syria york city and the argument here is that. i guess we can't can return afford to keep succeeding in the way that we have been against these terrorist groups because the more we do here in this is it will either be the threat becomes. well looked at helen as they like to

say what goes around comes around they have to take a short break we'll be back in just a few moments they. are. up .

in the troubled 19 seventy's a group of killers rampage through parts of northern ireland that was coordinated loyalists attacks to take the only population of tens of thousands were forced to flee their homes a mob was striking to put these attacks was that the or you see the police actually took part in the attacks so instead of preventing them they were active participants in the burning of full streets in belfast at the time more than a 100 innocent civilians were in the as for if you can seniors and we found out more i was surprised about the extent and of the currents which the pollution was involved in some of those cases the killers would lead to be named. i think it went to the very very top i think it is. the water where all the patients you know on. give the go ahead.

drew on friday oh oh oh oh oh dear it's crazy oh. we've been a real good shops to begin murders. becomes homes aren't class community young people are deciding if they want to be like their parents not like the liberals. always struggle. against war you always have problems but your focus is the most ubiquitous thrown out there most police departments use it almost overstayers in the school they could get their hands on them 24 hours. we were a teacher nice kids both racism police brutality taking pride in them they are. all a part of all history. welcome

back to all the 4th grade david kilcullen the owner of the book the dragons and the snakes how their bras learn to fight the west they're taken calling regarding so where we are in the world like right now i think we are all taken aback by what's happening on the american streets we've been violent party. in cheating to drugs and this makes you see i am running away with the matter here it doesn't mean that the americans. have lost sight of beach towns that i'm now coming home to roost. you know that's an interesting 3rd animal to add into the mix the young person that i think described this very well in the not in seventies. as the french radical

philosopher michel for car he said took about boomerang effect right there what an empire does overseas eventually comes back to be applied domestically run russia sort this out of the end of the at the war in afghanistan for example the u.s.s.r. after vietnam and i think we're seeing some of that here the point that i have made in in response to others that have us this is to say what we've seen across the west not not just the west and particularly in the west is a collapse of confidence in elites and institutions and experts of all times and one subcategory of that is military experts and i think that the 2 things are very closely linked the u.s. sort of lead. rules based world order that people talk about people have started particularly in in western countries to take that for granted after about the

middle of the 99 and not realizing i think that it actually rested on a very hard power foundation of american military effectiveness which is really eroded since that time and political middle do is that they're not asking you about the world order and i'm asking you specifically about the nasty quarter the united states gets seems to be falling apart and these a lot of people like quality abravanel a girl who famously said that the danger of the east of america cannot come from abroad it must bring among that's what he sad and this is not just a rhetorical question it's a question of how you to your priorities where you put your money as a security professional deep meaning that actually is of funding priorities spending surely you know. instead of holland programs do you think bad choice of priorities has made all where america well i think actually do make this point in the book at. i say that we need to be focusing much more heavily on resilience and

home and get out of the business of. you know what the president trying to sort of endless wars overseas because that's what president obama wanted to do as well as what president bush wanted to do after his 1st term and also point to nato as another major plan nato has been focusing a lot on domestic resiliency that is you know guaranteeing its ability to continue functioning under conditions of chaos for about the last 4 or 5 years and of course we should be honest here and say that one of the main drivers for that is russian aggression in the baltics. crimea if they don't forget about that and very much everywhere else around the world now speaking about again the last 6 station in the united states here alone because he's about to funding or directing resources from the police the people who are day have to be in town tram agencies on the street

but if you look again on america and be on on you know the the soldiers idling in poland on you know thousands and thousands of american soldiers overseas you know that came at a very huge price tag to american taxpayers to be precise it was $700000000000.00 just last year alone. do you make america safer you do have the entire u.s. defense budget they're not really your services and actually it is in fact more expensive to bring those troops back to the u.s. than it is to have them overseas in many cases which has been part of the debate in the us about about the u.s. has forces in about 80 countries overseas in terms of bases much of the u.s. international posture relates to the end of the cold war and it is a live debate and has been for quite a while in the united states about whether. those bases do make america safer

or in fact on the other hand whether they draw america into conflicts that it might be better to stay out front and that is a you know it's a political debate that's probably as old in the u.s. as this period we're talking about it really started immediately after the end of the cold war last year they not it's a state sponsor $114000000000.00 on law enforcement graphic law enforcement saves $106.00 times last that what it's bad for overseas and we are now hearing at many many calls and even support from some like just lay there at sea diver in that money and put that to the developer and all the disadvantaged neighborhoods again as a security professional a deep thinker i think that's a good because i can think of dealings of ways that dragging this nation media beast get exploited that situation the absence of police or you know they handled were all security functions to sound like militarized brigades. yeah

i don't think disease chance in the u.s. of the hand and i don't know if he functions to prison functions to the military there's a number of long international i mean not not not military militant brigades i'm sure you're hearing about are as inside the alabama the sensually you know horse police out there they are now people you know with 8040 seventh's walking the streets and claiming police functions doesn't your azad one of russia's greatest exports i think the point i would make more broadly there is. this isn't a fair and just the people you know i'm talking about the age of 47 as a as probably the most widely used a small arm in the world but just a point just to go back to a couple of points you were complaining that the entire u.s. defense budget with the. u.s. policing budget and of course the u.s.

defense budget is not the same as what the u.s. spends a misses that includes all kinds of things including health care for members of the u.s. military and their families the cost of bases domestically a lot of things it's not just the overall make and not the legal come i mean you would agree with me that damn i'm sick why didn't. the countries combined it and not it's clearly going to superpower related out of states have to have ample security budget my question was about the choice of priorities because whilst russia and china many other countries are not taking their security lightly by that guy they balance him after iowa it is a slightly different that they have new faces but the basic right yes so the correct comparison i think would be to train the operational budget for the wars overseas and the domestic budget in the u.s. which actually was about $1.00 to $1.00 at the height of the war on terror it wasn't significantly larger overseas and domestically but the other question is

whether it's a reasonable comparison right because what the u.s. law enforcement budget does is to aggregate state and local and federal funding there actually 800000 different police forces in the u.s. the question about whether you should. divert funding from public safety to other forms i think is a very valid conversation and i think we're going to see that playing out but i suspect that it's going to be more at the local like at the city level. and at the state level than at the federal level to the point in seattle it's worth mentioning we're talking about a 6 block radius of downtown. which has been in existence for what 48 hours but really going to yourself and speaking about the hundreds of hours since thousands of businesses look at. nearly many many millions of dollars in damages dozens of people killed many more injured we don't have a precise. 20 you know pretty worrying statistics i mean you

can accuse me of trying to provide if you're a bad actor you know i have no interest in that i don't know how many different i mean. by what's happening there. right now i don't think that is find anything although i think your coverage has been quite amusing of the . no no i think it's actually the u.s. media that's amplifying a lot of this stuff and one of the issues that we have in the united states is with a very free and independent media we've also got a business model really rewards. the media turning people against each other so i think that's part of the reason why we're seeing such significant. you know media coverage of it frankly you know it is widespread but it's a hell of a long way from a howler revolution and this morning let me take you. to

a point where you actually begin your book. 1901 because i strongly believe that an individual or a country only as strong as they believe themselves to be and one of the reasons not the only but one of the reasons the soviet union fell apart is the. yes you know people simply lost that national self-confidence they started rejecting or resenting damn sounds their own history and. every single dollar from that point. do you see anything anything similar happening to be united states right now because for me as a russian who leave through those early 99 in. st petersburg it is a very very familiar picture even though we didn't have much violence you know the sounds of haiti who you are and hating your high and country's history that's that's pretty similar. well i think it's interesting the concept that i don't

really talk about very much in the book but i think it's very relevant here is your tax concept of hyper normalization and you may be familiar with his focus was about the last generation of of the soviets and he talks about how everybody thought that everything was forever until suddenly it wasn't and when the soviet union collapsed people looking back sort of realized that it was kind of inevitable but at the time nobody saw it coming i think president truman ashley made this point very well in a speech that he gave 2 years ago when he talked about how you know it was a geopolitical disaster and how you know hundreds of millions of people went to bed in one country and work up in you know 25 different countries 25 different countries seeming 50 the right number. just crying from from his that it's this year i think was at. valdai in 25th didn't they maybe something lags and began to

collapse of the soviet union and that some of the that's in the united states i believe and i do hope that that will be a disaster for the whole while but there is a major debt ran back in the early handle and it's me experience me in russia experience a major crease in private lamblin. even more substantial if people have access to guns the last time i shall american gun sales in the united states increased 80 percent year on year in me so people block more than 1700000 guns in the month of may alone bringing the total number of guns to over 100000000 and the question i want to ask is the same question people ask nuclear scientists you know shamming morganton young people do you think that's a trance or perhaps in your taste and you see in the war i mean it's a bit of both right i mean the u.s. is founded on the right to rebellion and the idea that an armed populace that

is defend a book that can defend itself against the say it is a guarantee of liberty and that is still a fundamental element of the way the u.s. decisions often the way the u.s. thinks about itself one of the interesting things about the very significant spike in gun purchases that you mentioned is that a lot of it is coming from people on the left and on the progressive ends of u.s. politics who traditionally have not been big donors and i think as this concept of defining miccolis. plays out that's going to be an interesting dynamic because the police are not going to come and save you and you are not able to defend yourself and that makes you very vulnerable to a cons a disorder that we've learned so that's a very interesting observation i think that kind of liberty that we see play out of that american history has become too close for comfort even with

a liberal that's pretty striking something is really changing within the united states anyway the typical problem and forcing that we have to leave it here even though i have many more questions for you thank you for sharing hearing friday thanks great to talk to you and thank you for watching i hope to syria again next. are the ones apart. join me every thursday on the alex salmond's show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sport that's less i'm show business i'll see you than.

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a world transformed. what will make you feel safe. isolation community. are you going the right way or are you being led. direct. what is true what is faith. in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or remain in the shallows. some control for a middle class to homeless overnight most of our very hard working people who want to get ahead that is either have some some health issues or have some of the others trick about luck the whole time joel moon told me his pay for a place to live and missing just a month's rent can get she was

a victim to gunpoint if anything bad happens to any thing that just throws your budget off slightly. you better catch up real quick or you're going to have a judgment of possession against you and get addicted anyone that's homeless is treated like garbage people look at you like a monster or someone bad or you chose to be there most of the time it's not the case see how it is to be paul in the world's richest country. in. the world is driven by.

the dares thinks. we dare to ask. they can come and blow our brains out at any given time if we can't really do anything actually america is the only country in the world where you can kill people outside of war and legally get away with. all the fire crawls still. all the trouble to the point it's hollow flying to k.k.k. exists because america wants it to exist the of the biggest terrorist group to ever operate in this country and they're dead to me they're worse also than the people who destroyed the world trade centers of the scroll why.

protest as a restaurant employees one of the chief quits is another african american the dice kinds of things on that night in atlanta in the us. in the main stories the way that lives massive protest is in seattle occupy 6 blocks in the city center declaring it's kind of told in the sun as trump demands your know what threatens to send in the army and his combat vehicles i'm driving frequently saying during the floyd test the increasing miniaturise a channel for us police is question.