on the u.s. russia relations a battle struck me as somebody beat a very. well here and. he was speaking about russia as at school to talk about he's behaving student and i thinking even knew their world as a dram. the united states. has the long run don't you think that batman of war no longer thinks the world let me all right. so i actually talk about this quite a lot in the book and i talk about how there was a period where the goal of the uni polar you know period after the. end of the cold war where the u.s. and nato countries and other people sort of wanted russia to become what they described as a normal country what they meant by normal was a country that was democratic by western standards that was capitalist now was

a member of the u.s. led international rules based order established by the u.s. and as i point out in the book for a lot of russians experiencing shock therapy and privatization and auburn economists coming in response to a lot of mockery c.e. at the west foreign policy i think that's also an immediate matter yeah i think a lot of people saw that as sort of terminate 2nd class status in a us led system and i think it's pretty clear that russia in particular has been pushing back on that. assumptions that a lot of us policy makers i wouldn't actually put will see at the top of the list there the person. actually on albright who was the secretary of state for president clinton she made the comments in 99 when she said look if we have to use force if that is where the united states we stand tall we see further. and everybody else

and sort of we know what's what's good for everybody well actually can see the number of cases i think they have gotten my next question if the well is populated by the sneaks and the dragons who is bill was down is it and i had that white knight in shining armor you know this is a great question and actually i had to add. a note to the to the book to specify what i mean by the west so you know i'm a military analyst i'm not a partisan political person and when i use the term the west what i mean is 2 things one are geo political entities are generally u.s. led you know western countries naser their western alliance and the us but i also include in that definition countries that fight in the same way that the us fights and it's really a military definition which a couple of years before was his testimony was the basis for the us victory in the

1st gulf war and i kind of argue in the book that that victory actually force pretty much everybody else to adapt and evolve in response to u.s. military dominance and the us perhaps has become a little bit stagnant because it hasn't had to face the adaptive landscape that others have had to deal with each side just a moment ago that in your book you have. specifically building our game and around the fact that after 99 to wind the west was left to apply be snakes while the dragons leaned out once and watched closely from baghdad how to fly the west and now the last. deal when. this needs some good job wins don't have the same nods of why it will now i'm in russia or china or at you know are trying to have. adapted western areas killed a captive them a problem chatteris they don't belong on airplanes they don't use as bad.

even if they are you know to talk about dragons and snakes is being very different but what's really different in the book from a lot of the research that you'll see in a lot of the analysis on that was he had attention is that it actually draws on a different body of knowledge from what we normally years so most military and it. is really a subset of business literature what i've done is to draw on literature from the science of evolutionary theory. looking at adaptive landscapes and the way that a dominant president in an ecosystem creates a landscape that everybody else in that ecosystem has to adapt to and i think it is interesting i don't in any way. or suggest an equivalence between say the russian federation an islamic state in any way are the opposite actually but what i am

saying is that everybody whoever they are whatever the basis for existence is reacting to the in the period after 9 straight to us military dominance and one of the interesting things actually is that people have started to copy each other and one of the case studies are $22.00 is the evolution of israel and hezbollah. which is just a very clean example because it's a small geographical area in southern lebanon where these 2 people or 2 groups have been fighting each other for going on 40 years and you see over time they become to resemble each other in terms of their tactics not a new way morally right but in terms of the way that they are. now. in your book here also suggest or list several mechanisms of adaptation a way the evolution of that i mean including what you call artificial selection

that is the west inadvertently build a barrier at class of terrorists by the way it's got its war on terror and i want to seize on the word in a bird and maybe the last line deliberately uses militant terrorist groups it was a letter from afghanistan to syria it is hard to find a place that wasn't done. if our not in shining armor wasn't trying to trying to sneak some eyes don't you think that you know it would have a detrimental effect on babbling. so yeah i think one of the points that i make is that there's a bell curve in evolutionary pressure if any so you assume a dominant actor in the ecosystem and then everybody else is adapting to the pressure they're getting from that act if the pressure on them is too low or too little those that know if the pressure is too high they'll be destroyed and we've

seen that with some groups but there's a sort of band in the middle in the middle of the bell curve where you're putting enough pressure on an adversary to force them to adapt and get better but not enough to destroy them and. i'm actually ad taking issue with not only you getting russia and china as adversaries because i'm not sure that's the case but you're specifically now calling those groups adversarial and not. back from history but it wasn't always the case the united states and the last deliberately supported a number of those groups starting from al qaida and many of the militant groups are leaving serious isn't really about the fight adversary so much as you know like we have an expression here in russia to sort of. give our sneak a bit of space and it's half the line we warm up needs that was amusing in the book are not about russia and china they're about non-state actors are the specific

example that i point to in the book their experience one is the way that israeli counterterrorism since the ninety's actually created a better cost of palestinian terrorists and my sources for that the surviving heads of shin bet which is the internal of the f.s.a. approval in israel and they are the 1st to say that the way that they approached this problem was as they describe it point specific all tactics no strategy and that over time they actually bred a more capable adversary i also point to the u.s. i think there the way that we operated in particular in pakistan put enough pressure on the pakistanis how than to make them danna to crayton into a single unified organization and take them from a bunch of guerrilla groups in a valley in pakistan to a trans national act by 2010 right now seeing attacks in syria york city and the

argument here is that. i guess we can't return afford to keep succeeding in the way that we have been against these terrorist groups because the more we do here in this is it will either be the threat becomes. well look at the column as they like to say what goes around comes around they have to take a short break and we'll be back in just a few moments. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have it's crazy to confront a shouldn't let it be an arms race is often very dramatic development only closely i'm going to resist i don't see how that strategy will be successful very critical of time time to sit down and talk.

they can come and blow our brains out at any given time we can't really do anything actually america is the only country in the world where you can kill people outside of war and legally get away with. all the fire crawls stillbirth you all the trouble here's the fail the point it's hollow ploy to k.k.k. exists because america wants it to exist they are the biggest terrorist group to ever operate in this country and they're dead to me they're worse off than the people who destroyed the world trade centers or the scroll why.

welcome back to all the 4 a great ending of cullen the author of the book dragons and the snakes how the rascal learned to fight the west not take a color regardless of where we are in the world like right now i think we are all taking a bad by what's happening on the american streets particularly in violent party. all tesing the jogging to the snakes you see i am running away with the about her theory does she think that the americans perhaps have lost sight of because she can see that i'm now coming home to roost. you know that's an interesting 3rd animal to to add into the mix the other person that i think described this very well in the not in seventies was the french radical philosopher michel foukara who said what

about a boomerang effect right there what an empire does overseas eventually comes back to be applied domestically run russia sort this out of the end of the act the war in afghanistan for example the u.s. or enough to be unarmed and i think we're seeing some of that the point that i have made in in response to others that have asked this is to say what we've seen across the west not not just the west but particularly in the west is a collapse of confidence in elites and institutions and experts of all times and one subcategory of that is military experts and i think that the 2 things are very closely linked the u.s. sort of lead. rules based world all of that people talk about people have started to go in in western countries to take that for granted after about the middle of the 99 and not realizing i think that it actually rested on

a very hard power foundation of american military effectiveness which is really eroded since that time. mr coelho mildew is that can i just. you hear about the world order i'm asking you specifically about the nasty quarter in the united states beach seems to be falling apart and these days a lot of people like quoting abravanel a girl who famously said that the danger of the east of america cannot come from abroad it must bring amongst us that's what he sad and this is not just a rhetorical question it's a question of how you to your priorities where you put your money as a security professional do you mean that actually is of funding priorities spending trillions overseas instead of home and program do you think back choice of priorities has made all americans well i think actually do make this point in the book i say that we need to be ferguson much more heavily on resilience and home

and get out of the business of. you know what the president trying to sort of endless wars overseas because that's what president obama wanted to do as well as what president bush wanted to do after his 1st term and also point to nato as another major plan nato has been focusing a lot on domestic resiliency that is you know guaranteeing its ability to continue functioning under conditions of chaos for about the last 4 or 5 years and of course we should be honest here and say that one of the main drivers for that is russian aggression in the baltics. crimea if they don't forget about that pretty much everywhere else around the world now speaking about again the mass extinction the united states needs me here alone because it's about to funding or diverting resources from the police the people who are day have to be encounter emergencies

on the street but if you look again on america and be on on you know the the soldiers idling in poland on you know thousands and thousands of american soldiers overseas you know that team at a very huge price tag to american taxpayers to be precise it was $700000000000.00 just last year alone. do you make america safer you do have the entire u.s. defense budget they're not really your services and actually it is in fact more expensive to bring those troops back to the u.s. than it is to have them overseas in many cases which has been part of the debate in the us about about the u.s. has forces in about 80 countries overseas in terms of bases much of the u.s. international posture relates to the end of the cold war and it is a live debate and has been for quite a while in the united states about whether. those bases do make america safer

or in fact on the other hand whether they draw america into conflicts that it might be bene to stay our friend and that is a you know it's a political debate that's probably as old in the u.s. as this period we're talking about it really started immediately after the end of the cold war last year the united states a state sponsor $114000000000.00 on law enforcement graphic law enforcement saves $106.00 times last that what it's bad for overseas and we are now hearing at many many calls and even support from some like just later use at sea diver in that money and put that to the developer and all the disadvantaged neighborhoods again as a security professional deep think that's a good idea because i can think of dealings of ways that dragging this nation media beast get exploited that situation the absence of police or you know they handled were all security functions to sound like militarized brigades. yeah

i don't think disease chance in the u.s. of the hand and i don't know if he functions to replace the functions of the military there's a number of long international not not not military militant brigades i'm sure you're hearing about are as inside the alabama the essentially you know horse police out there they are now people you know with 8040 seventh's walking the streets and claiming police functions doesn't your exact one of russia's greatest exports i think the point i would make more broadly there is when you think if you own just the people you know no i'm talking about the age of 47 as a as probably the most widely used a small arm in the world but just a point just to go back to a couple of points you were complaining that the entire u.s. defense budget with the. u.s. policing budget and of course the u.s. defense budget is not the same as what the u.s.

spends a mrs includes all kinds of things including health care for members of the u.s. military and their families the cost of bases domestically so a lot of things it's not just the overall make and not the legal come i mean you would agree with me that damn i'm sick why didn't. the countries combined it and not it's clearly going to superpower related out of states have to have ample security budget my question was about the choice of priorities because whilst russia and china many other countries are not taking their security lightly but that bad balancing of damascus and anti-aids is a slightly different that they acknowledge but the basic right yes so the correct comparison i think would be to train their operational budget for wars overseas and the domestic budget in the u.s. which actually was about $1.00 to $1.00 at the height of the war on terror it wasn't significantly larger overseas and domestically but the other question is

whether it's a reasonable comparison right because what the u.s. law enforcement budget does is to aggregate state and local and federal funding there actually 800000 different police forces in the u.s. the question about whether you should. divert funding from public safety to other forms i think is a very valid conversation and i think we're going to see that playing out but i suspect that it's going to be more at the local like at the city level. and at the state level than at the federal level to the point in seattle it's worth mentioning we're talking about a 6 block radius of downtown. which has been in existence for 48 hours but really going to yourselves and speaking about the hundreds of hours since thousands of businesses look at. nearly many many millions of dollars in damages dozens of people killed many more injured we don't have a precise. 20 you know pretty worrying statistics i mean you

can accuse me or you know trying to provide if you're a bad actor you know i have no interest in that i don't know how many different i mean. by what's happening there. right now i don't think that is behind anything although i think your coverage has been quite amusing of the. no no i think it's actually the u.s. media that's amplifying a lot of this stuff and one of the issues that we have in the united states is with a very free and independent media we've also got a business model that really rewards. the media turning people against each other so i think that's part of the reason why we're seeing such significant. you know media coverage of it frankly you know it is widespread but it's a hell of a long way from a howler revolution and this morning let me take you. to

a point where you actually begin your book. 1901 because i strongly believe that an individual or a country only as strong as they believe themselves to be and one of the reasons not the only but one of the reasons the soviet union fell apart is big. yes you know people simply lost that national self-confidence they started rejecting or resenting damn sounds their own history. every single. point. do you see anything anything similar happening to be united states right now because for me as a russian who leave through those early 99. in st petersburg it is a very very familiar picture even though we didn't have much violence you know the sounds of haiti who you are and hating your high and country's history that's that's pretty similar. well i think it's interesting the concept that i don't

really talk about very much in the book but i think it's very relevant here is your tax concept of hyper normalization and you may be familiar with his focus was about the last generation of of the soviets and he talks about how everybody thought that everything was forever until suddenly it wasn't and when the soviet union collapsed people looking back sort of realized that it was kind of inevitable but at the time nobody saw it coming i think president truman ashley made this point very well in a speech that he gave 2 years ago when he talked about how you know it was a geopolitical disaster and how you know hundreds of millions of people went to bed in one country and work up in you know 25 different countries 25 different countries seeming 50 right and i'm. describing from from his that it is sure if it was. about iran and 25th in name maybe something lags and began to collapse of the soviet union and some of the events in the united states i believe and i do hope

that that will be a disaster for the whole while but there is a major debt ran back in the early ninety's and it's me experience we. experience a major crease in the private. even more substantial if people had access to guns the last time i shall american gun sales in the united states increased 80 percent year on year in me so people bought more than 1700000 guns in the month of may alone bringing the number of rounds to all war 100000000 and the question i want to ask is the same question people ask nuclear scientists you know shamming morganton young people do you think that's a trance or perhaps in your taste and you see the war i mean it's a bit of both right i mean the us is founded on the rights rebellion and the idea

that an armed populace that is defend a book that can defend itself against the say it is a guarantee of liberty and there is still a fundamental element of the way the us decisions often the way the us thinks about itself one of the interesting things about the very significant spike in gun purchases that you mentioned is that a lot of it is coming from people on the left and on the progressive ends of u.s. politics who traditionally have not been big donors and i think as this concept of defining miccolis. plays out that's going to be an interesting dynamic because if the police are not going to come and save you and you are not able to defend yourself then that makes you very vulnerable to the cons of disorder that we've. so that's a very interesting observation i think that kind of liberty that we see play out of that american history has become too close for comfort even with

a liberal that's pretty striking something is really changing within the united states anyway the tackle problems and fortunately we have to leave it here even though i have many more questions for you thank you for sharing hearing letters are great to talk to and thank you for watching i hope to syria again next. are the ones apart. join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and i'll be speaking to guest on the world of politics sports business i'm showbusiness i'll see you then.

in the troubled 19 seventies a group of killers rampage through parts of northern ireland that was coordinated loyalists attacks to take the only population in belfast tens of thousands were forced to flee their homes and what was striking to point these attacks was a p.r. you see the police actually took part in the attacks so instead of preventing it they were active participants in the burning of full streets in belfast at the time more than a 100 innocent civilians were murdered as the review can seniors and we found out more i was surprised about the extent and of the currency which the collusion was involved in some of those cases they killers would later be named the dylan and gang i think it went to the very very top i think it is. the water where all the taste you thought was going on and

give the go ahead. some control from middle class to homeless overnight muslim are very hardworking people who want to get ahead that either have some some health issues. yes or have some of it out of strict about luck a full time job won't always pay for a place to live and missing just a month's rent can get she will victim to gunpoint if anything bad happens to any thing that just throws your budget off slightly. you better catch up real quick or you're going to have a judgment a possession against you and get addicted to anyone that's homeless is history like garbage people look at you like a monster or someone bad or you chose to be there most of the time it's not the case see how it is to be paul in the world's richest country. is you'll be via reflection of reality.

in a world transformed. what will make you feel safe. isolation for community. are you going the right way or are you being led so. direct. what is true what is faith. in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or a maybe in the shallows. there was a crack seized to do crack when i was located in my day he was like

a bust at the so you know i got like what i needed when i was a baby but i had a bad childhood. there's always single mothers in. african-american community service and slavery. i think it's more of teenagers having kids. you can expect a 14 or 15 year old 1st daughter to order for him maybe a far there any check out. the last place on. my car and breaking down i was unable to get to work on time sunday let me go with my paycheck that i bring home i have nearly enough to pay my car insurance. gas and my car.

is such a strong to bloody use one of police chief quits is another african american dollars at the hands of police on a. lunch or in the united states. in the main stories of the week months of protests in seattle occupy 6 blocks of the city center declaring it's an autonomous so there's a common ground law and order and threats the sundin the. drones are frequently seen during the floyd protests the increasing militarization of the us police is question.