our vote for the coronavirus by demick is not a return to the status quo but the mass mobilization of working people brittany's is locked down of germany reluctantly rians is it so what does the future hold for the u.k. as we open shops and pubs while still registering over 100 daily deaths we are going to bed and sages top model of renowned you're a scientist professor call 1st of all is the more coming up in today's going underground but 1st this week's or the end of the u.k. government's daily coronavirus press briefings as prime minister morris johnson announced further easing of a lockdown from american independence day on july the 4th or many are arguing that going back to normal is not nearly enough in the wake of the deadly pandemic they claim we must use this opportunity to create a better world one of them is legendary shakespearean actor mark rowlands who backed calls for a post coronavirus national nature service that would according to the wildlife in countryside link create tens of thousands of jobs improve the health of nature people and the planet and contribute to a green sustainable recovery he joins me now via skype from london very excited to

speak to you mark where the greatest actors on the planet you know the mainstream media conversation though mark is we're going to get the economy going we've got to get back shopping just tell me about the national nature service which is being promoted by the wildlife and countryside link well i was taught i was a kid the 2 negatives make a positive and we've got 2 natures got a massive amount of jobless and we've got a massive job to do in the environment our eco systems are very degraded we rank something like $189.00 out of $218.00 nations the loss of biodiversity in our landscape and by loss of biodiversity whether you're in a human being we're talking about cells in a human being or wildlife in the countryside means poor health that means you're much more vulnerable when you don't have the biodiversity that's one thing we also have a massive job to help our landscape. to sequester carbon and indeed to absorb water

as the oceans rise if we're to get anywhere near this target of keeping that the overall temperature below $1.00 degrees centigrade so we've got a massive job this is a massive vital job to do let's put the 2 together and get to work president roosevelt in 1933 put 300000 americans to work in 3 months in 800 camps and planted 3500000000 trees in 9 years and that was without all this communication and technology i don't see why we can't do it the government has to pay unemployment benefit anyway particularly to my profession be it or we're not looking at having work until april next year judi dench said this today i saw that she's thinking that it is may not reopen in her lifetime so we've got a massive creative intelligent flexible workforce just in my profession put them to work this autumn let's see if we can't make art let's make nature that's my thing

that's my thought well i'll give a drummer in a moment if i may but you see we have pioneering primatologist jane goodall on this program we've had angela davis the former black panther they kept on emphasizing the environment the deforestation that may have played a part in the creation of coronavirus but the nurse will maybe international conversation is. it's not the environment what i hear from a scientist a couple days ago is the likelihood of a vaccine is it's a big guess it's that they're really in territory they don't know much about i think it's going to become very clear to everyone that our immune system what we eat what we breathe what we drink is crucial to our surviving this pandemic obvious that may well be coming and if once you get into looking closely at your own health pretty soon you start to look at what you're breathing i certainly in here london i really have noticed the improvement of the air the improvement of the water and and of about 15 years ago i started to look at what i was eating and whether it was

actually providing what it said it was providing on the label which in many cases it was not because of that are the way we the way we use the land we have a massive a massive change in in the u.k. out of narrative in how we use our land most of the land is used in the way it was used in the 19 $150.00 s. after the war when we were understandably as everyone was concerned about food production but now we don't need so much land for food production we should be moving about 25 percent of our food production land towards a rewilding or restored eco system towards wetlands towards forests towards a rewilding of the environment to help us meet these much more important targets of surviving climate change so it's a massive opportunity at the moment to get to work on on in at the beginning of what the u.n. has described as the decade of eco system restoration when virus johnson talks he

talks about big multinational companies when all trump talks at the white house with coronavirus briefings with big multinational companies parallels between this national nature service and what bernie sanders jeremy corwin's green new deal that's the kind of thing you're talking about as we approach the hopefully the end of the pandemic. i'm not so aware of what bernie sanders and jeremy corbin a saying now i'm i'm very aware that caroline lucas in the green party has been working on a green new deal with people like john of them part they've been working since 2007 on the models that frank than roosevelt set down in 1933 that they not only planted 3500000000 trees they also did a lot of restoring of soil they prevented millions and millions of dollars of loss of juta fires with new services to prevent fires we have we have so

many jobs to do in terms of our relationship with our environment i don't know why any political party is not thinking about this particularly when they have to they have to intervene now i know a lot of moral right wing governments don't want to be seen as intervening in society they want to light a touch of government but everyone's calling out to the government in to be known and support us and help us through this there are other benefits too in my mind as well in terms of the very important issues of racial diversity in our society this all the divides that have grown up in our society of the last few years between urban and rural between elderly and young between the different races in our society a national nature service could be could start with diversity has its basic foundation and we could be meat meat and mixing in meeting these societies as we do works not just works in the countryside but also work works on urban wildlife for

young people who have no gardens and no access to wildlife to see how nature behaves that would be another benefit of it in my mind but does the wildlife in countryside link have the ear of government we had jonathon porritt who survived prince charles he also advised b.p. on our program he said there were hers on this program that b.p. was greenwashing and people who have the ear of government arguably are the big fossil fuel companies not maybe the wildlife in countryside link. well you're absolutely right they do and they have been greenwashing but the tide is turning isn't it i mean renewable energy is now cheaper than than oil. these companies have been warned by the banks themselves they've been warned to be prepared for a massive change and that massive change is happening wind and solar power is now foreign it doesn't need subsidies anymore it's actually in the market as a more affordable more economic. viable solution. so you

know my feeling is and this i got from jonathon porritt a tipping point will come a tipping point is going to come this is going to happen at some point we are all going to realize oh my god the ship is on fire it nothing else matters and the wise man is an irishman said to me recently fixes his roof when the sun is shining not when it's pouring with rain i think probably the citizens are ahead of the of the broken dynamic between big business and government what is going to happen then do fiercer and film i mean. can you have sympathy for a fair to take sponsorship from big multinational companies who may be wearing the not the same with the wildlife and countryside links because they're so desperate for funding i think you have to be careful whether you're an individual citizen or a or a community or a group about who you take money from don't you i mean of course there are many

organizations and individuals with more money than they need and perhaps frightened to give that money away that that wealth does need to be shared in a very large way as well as a small way and supporting the arts supporting the imagination in society is a very wonderful thing was going to take a lot of the magination and a change in the way in our understanding of our story and so the great plays by chekhov or by shakespeare plays. survive the greek plays it's in the usually about people facing the kind of climactic change we're facing at the moment i'm all for supporting the arts don't get me wrong and i don't have a pinion that corporations nestle bad or governments of bad this systems just get outdated and broken but i think i think the business world and the government world . will and that eventually come around to having to do something about this.

you're picking this up on me because i have been outspoken about b.p. and the r a c and i didn't like that sponsorship deal because i felt that b.p. were using shakespeare's name to give the impression that they were very sensitive and cultured and awake business group at that time which i didn't feel they were i didn't feel their behavior warranted that that connection but we've had the former boss of b.p. on this program we obviously invite the new one to refute any allegations against him i've got to ask you though about shakespeare because boris johnson the prime minister was supposedly writing a book about him before he became prime minister suddenly relatively suddenly you've said in the past that shakespeare is something you sort of ethical guidelines from his work during the johnson is to read some more shakespeare during the pandemic. he says that he's definitely a shakespearean type character isn't it john's and. i'm not sure if all stuff ever

becomes king and plays. but i don't know him so i can only imagine the pressures that he's under i wouldn't want to are so slag him off for that if he's read shakespeare or. is intrigued by chicks and that's that's a very good sign yes i think there is a lot of that are a lot to be learnt particularly for leaders from shakespeare i think of a lot of a lot of it focuses very much. the ethics and the behavior and the outcomes of different leadership patterns you might have a suspect that the forestation in the environment would have created pandemics but i presume you didn't know coronavirus was coming when you planned to do your next project it's a play about dr ignatz semmelweis who is a hunger in dr who discovered that in vienna to cut it to try and tell it briefly he was were king in the maternity in

a maternity ward one was run by midwives who practiced on mannequins and the other was run by young doctors who practiced on cadavers and what he discovered was that it would coming straight from doing autopsies to helping the young women give birth and that the death rates were incredibly high for the young women from sepsis from fever are both them and their children and he 40 years before louis pastor or dr lister i discovered bacteria he discovered that there was something he couldn't see it but you could smell it on the hands of the doctors and he called it categorically particles and he wrote to every doctor in the whole of europe and none of them have it why partly because it meant that they were guilty of having killed people on wittingly that they were trying to help but it it shows how difficult it sometimes is for even for science to make a move forward when the old story has a lot of guilt and shame around it so we should we should be wary of the shame and

blame and all that aspect of the game because undoubtedly the new discoveries that they're going to help and save us will mean that some of us have been doing some things very wrong while our hungary and director didn't tell me about him walk rylan thank you. my pleasure after the break the world's most frequently cited neuroscientist professor called frustration with visors the independent sage committee in britain who is going on the ground in the u.k. government's coronavirus approach could see the country back in lock down before the end of the all the small going to have going on the ground.

mr throughout the course so he can he just needs other than the men. but on the better served on the dad the perkins the song that does this music. instead of. the emotional learning to want to screw up you'll still be stuck or your muscles from your bikini misses to a function. or forgot you're the future. that. we think he minds be. soldier peace off the boots he's wearing. so let's look at the moon for a possible opinion more than we do in the new online or on the shore stuff in the summer watching for you sports send us all the.

welcome back in the 1st half of the program we spoke to legendary actor marc rylan about the new and improved pose covert world that could be built up to lock down but with daily death still over under it in the u.k. what's the risk that we could be returning to lock down before the end of the a joining me now is the world's most frequently cited you're a scientist professor call 1st and who is responsible for mathematical modeling at the independent scientific advisory group for emergencies committee thank you so much for coming on before we get on do with the state of mathematical modeling in the world today the obvious question is should we be abandoning lockdowns here is the world health organization is warning of increased spike and is there any point

in the antibody testing for music. 2 very big questions that i think in relation to the locked out the modeling suggests that this is probably the right time to consider a graded knocked down so we're not talking about a categorical complete abandoning all our inherited behavior responses and social distancing of the wearing of masks but certainly it at that this point the models when you quote behavior responses into those models it was suggested this is about the right time we should be considering that and of course there are enormous pressures be on the epidemiology to license consideration of getting the economy going getting sick children back at schools we activating they had services i think it might be helpful just to categorize the different kinds of 2nd ways that we might be frightened of the 1st so art is

a resurgent story back that would reflect a premise sure that session of lockdown policy. and that could arise in the in the next few weeks or so as a direct consequences of our behavior responses or indeed our institutional responses there's another kind of 2nd wave which is probably more pretty problematic and probably will be and testing policy makers in the long term and that's a kind of 2nd away that we saw a spanish flu and some of the more recent influenza pandemics the mechanism that this is not so sensitive to unlocking explore about the population or that immunity and it successive erosion over the next few months either through immunological presences where they know about it or indeed a population tuxes. that singapore and things and exchange of people between the.

populations that is a kind of lock down psych the kind of 2nd wave that would probably emerge if it does around christmas social shortly thereafter also a lot of factors there you have temperature and so on i just a quick practical one mathematical modeling is notorious for for discovering how difficult air is and the movements of air what do you made of the former big pharma top advisors and every advisor to mars johnson release a battery vallance seeming to change his views about the 2 meter distancing. exponentially higher at one meter what are we supposed to believe. think he is put in a very difficult position. and very much like most scientists have stripped already away the evidence from different perspectives and certainly when your in the game of making or devising a policy decisions it's all a game of

a risk in relation to social distancing one vs 2 meters it is certainly true that the probability of transmission when you are closer to somebody will increase and that's that's up between $2.10 and that range in itself gives an indication the degree of uncertainty we have about that however i think its position is that social distancing is important in new aren't saying they offset of the 1st wave that is mechanistically important. and as such he can motivate i think every direction from 2 to one metres if effectively if the thing that matters which is a probability that i will affect you if i am to question you can be reduced through not facing each other wearing a face mask in certain situations so it is that little it seems a bit like common sense always you know there is someone i mean there's nothing more sophisticated than that so i know germany which is reporting far fewer new

cases than britain has been easing a lockdown but then seems to. discover the what is it meat packing areas you have very cold temperatures and that's the big impact on spikes in certain local areas yeah you know i've just come back to your original observation in that book that certainly impresses itself upon me the more i look into this it is all commonsense i'm just taking that commonsensical action through to the experiences of germany so what we are i think seeing there is a a fluctuation that is a reflection of the slow offset of the 1st wave that is due to actually jeanette in the population and an important kind of education edge is of some people have just not yet been exposed that are as so as the virus me aches invades throughout any country in the u.k. and germany it's going to come across pockets of people they will populations communities that were not previously exposed so i suspect we're going to be seeing

quite a lot of these little outbreaks with local figure us response says ok you know you actually work more nanometers presumably with brain imaging tell me about you made a logical dark matter because i'm going to say we've had scientists on this program nobel prize winners some of them will usually talk about quantum mechanics and you know how the great the greatest initiative science gives us are completely against common sense. or accidentally observation right probably included dark matter in common sense to get out of that particular argument so don't matter comes into frame as. the 1st thing it was used almost euphemistically atom as a popular example of stuff we cannot see but we know must be there in order to explain that which we can say that dark matter in this instance also takes on a very particular meaning it's to certain populations of the population

that behaved as if they were in the shadows. the pandemic so an example of that maybe the people we're talking about because the denizens of the community there have not been exposed to the guys at this stage because they are sequestered they're geographically isolated but there are other important organs are dark ish matter even within the community of a population that is exposed potentially to the virus for example you may be not susceptible you may have developed across immunity so putting these different kinds of dark matter into the models into the mix into the common sense starts to give you a very nuanced picture of 'd what might happen and how one would interpret levels of antibody testing which brings us back to the 2nd part of your very 1st question so if you want confirmation that the epidemic and the pandemic is unfolding in

the way that you thought it would because you've put all the right privatise all the things that matter into your model then one of the most important bits of evidence is the number of people that have attained a degree of immunity and all of the. portion will have developed antibodies and you can go measure that so here is the importance of antibodies as a measure of the population immunity how much help we remember the 1st wave you see is arguably very grave consequences of you saying we need a more nuanced model because there were black lives matter protests the other week and the common sense model without your nuances would suggest we must give up our basic freedoms as human beings not to demonstrate does it surprise you that this common sense model has been there pervade to the british population of unfairness in other countries day after day just to qualify my responses for me

a nuance model is the commonsense what if your question is. well the policy. was policy making predicated on laws that were just too common sensical to the point of being absurdly simple and very little mathematically that certainly is an argument i think you could easily defend. the scientific advice at that time because it will have to assume the worst case scenario ok but let's just get it to that worst case scenario because i understand your model predicted we would probably need nightingale hospitals where there was a lot of focus on the ventilators igniting the laws laws where that focus could arguably have been put on other things that may have saved more lives like cam's just quickly tell me why you realize that a generator of modeling technique would show that the nightingale hospitals was kind of pointless around that so very hard but very reform the question. so. the distinct look one of the nuances of. the

kind of modeling that we use brought to the table is that we place the compunction or beautiful simple sci on models a what complete context we equipped the models with everything that matters in terms of generating the dangerous hand so clearly it matters where are you what home are you in a care home how you work it matters how you are testing a population data sets people got more likely to be affected less likely to be affected it matters whether you develop symptoms from being infected so if you like embedding these very beautiful very simple s.c.r. like constructs into a full generative local that could then generate the data we were able to build and store the old into these models the societal response including the occupancy of critical care units when you run those models and you estimate say our sensitivity

to the prevalence and actually hold our sensitivity collectively us on average to the occupancy our critical care unit you run the model then you see that the occupancy of critical care pete at a level that was just underneath the existing capacity in this country are up of the 8 jets just one little point there that's actually i think an endorsement of 'd practically how we handle that collectively as a couple and as a population. you know in that sense it was pitch just about right in the sense that the peak flat just to the extent that it undercut that critical threshold well we had the worst grab a cab or the death toll in the world maybe. right your violate your your your.

moving on to another implicit question which is why. so then we have to go back to the sort of no nuanced question of what kinds of factors would explain a differential mortality or i challenge you from one country to the other. the answer is probably actually not so it's a common sense but as you might imagine that intervention like social distancing lockdowns self isolation shielding all of these things operate to change the probability of the rate at which i will transmit the virus to you. and i use the right very deliberately because what we're talking about is a change in the promise arise i'm sure the presence of the speech up or slow that down it does not you know that cells change the file and aren't technically a endemic equilibrium so what that means of the any controlling of you have available all the government either better or you and i have available as parents

or teachers is how quickly do we let this tide roll over so that was that you are the principal motivation for flattening the curve it wasn't to actually reduce the area underneath. it was to reduce the amplitude of the peak so that we didn't overwhelm our critical care about city thank you so much for joining us for press conference to thank you for the show will be back on monday when we get examining the signs tortured in london according to the u.n. now waiting extradition proceedings j.c.s. you know jack kemp a junior is again sent to appear in an english court after being too ill to attend his last hearing even via video link until that wash your hands to join the other grandma following up on you tube twitter facebook instagram some.

join me every thursday on the alex simon chill and i'll be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business i'm show business i'll see you then. become a battleground in the u.s. . people of demanding the shutdown of a local plant from my yankee is right now my focus because it's a very dangerous oh no clare power plant the owner is attempting to run the reactor beyond its operational limits this case just sort of puts a magnifying glass on where's the power in this country where's it going is it moving more towards corporate interests who or is it more in the idea of a traditional participatory democracy our live with the people this demonstrates that struggle in the very real ways the struggle.

i am max has or this is the kaiser report and you know what wall street's up to its usual bag of tricks that back in 2008 global financial crisis and remember that movie the big short and remember i was obvious that everything was going to blow up and remember how the wall street people were you know conspiring and then it all blew up in a few people make billions and billions of dollars because they cooked the books and they grabbed all that cash and we had cars the report said you know what this exact same thing is going to happen again and it's 12 years and guess what here we are 12 years.