if i can sit back and watch again each time i need to laugh get incensed by those children present unless you step down from mrs obama or nancy pelosi tell us as this nightmare of a presidency is on its last legs november cannot come too soon general says biden has more chance of landing on the moon than winning and then goes on to see the silent majority will turn out for trump the green agrees and says i think you walk at scott and says there is no way to run a pandemic government just save lives in the flight it's a presenter's feeling the american people are feeling this i refuse to believe finally i am not and says i hope to start to wake up from this multiple nightmare in november with the biotin when. we are on unless and. i was contacted by a scot who was visiting new zealand he was extremely anxious to get back to scotland and up with him and talk to his local member of parliament. about thinking

and it is said to but that states may not be better staying on in new zealand since it was pretty clear even early on that new zealand had the virus under control much less clear what was happening in the united kingdom and the us as proved with some 50100 cases only 22 deaths in new zealand as one of the best records in the world so why has new zealand succeeded or so many other countries have failed imo join from wellington new zealand by a key government adviser in the fight against the coronavirus professor michael baker professor becker welcome to the i like simon show reasons wellington for us are back of the room prime minister to send a devil has received great plaudits for her clear leadership during the pandemic just how important has that been to the success of public health policy in new zealand. yeah i think it's been absolutely critical and if you look around the

globe the real success factors i think have been very good scientific leadership and very good political leadership and in taking decisive action against a virus and that's exactly what just india dunes government has done. ever not shell professor back up why has new zealand got to grips with this virus are so many other countries have struggled there are 3 things we don't basically switching to border quarantine seen in 14 days and supervise quarantine before you land into the country the lot don't really extinguish most lines of transmission of the virus and then they're to sting entrancing so the context tracing systems got built up so they could if you like mop up some of the remaining cases left over from some big cluster so those 3 missions combined were enough to basically eliminate this virus entirely from new zealand what i think the essence of success

in this pandemic has been good scientific leadership good person who leadership and decisive action against the virus and using really the best available evidence approaches and i think in particular recognising that this was more like a science cyrus then an influenza virus that everything hasn't been plain sailing even in new zealand and tackle this violence we've seen recently of the resignation of the minister plot that the health minister many people around the world well will find it surprising that a country with 5100 cases and 22 deaths that the health minister ends up resigning while other countries with tens of thousands of fatalities the health minister us continue in office can you explain this a pardon anomaly. well i think our health minister did take ministerial

responsibility seriously and he times i think let him self down and tins of his stand as a piston behavior during the lockdown and i think this is handling a similar state since the pandemic so and that's why he was signed and i think that was really i mean i know it was very distressing for him to do that because he was very attached to the portfolio and doing effective in many aspects of that and that i think he really took responsibility very seriously and. has been argued professor baker of that if you compare them to new zealand or the united kingdom then they in the u.k. implemented new zealand policy back to front in the sense that new zealand introduced travel restrictions control the violence and then when it was under control opened up the sporting events whereas in the united kingdom they continued

with the sporting events the cheltenham festival the rugby internationals and only implemented travel restrictions after the horse and bolted as the a.b.a. through from that argument to the u.k. seems to of pursued new zealand policy and reverse. yes though it does look like that and one of the things that people myself realize when the we were looking at the pandemic was rather than following the influenza model where you gradually increase the intensity of your control measures as the penned in with sense to try and dampen down you do exactly the opposite you throw your strongest control measures at the pendant right at the beginning to extinguish it so you do things in the reverse order from the traditional and through the model and that was one of those i mean for me here is one of the light bulb moments when we saw the pandemic starting to. take off a museum and if you like the astounding and expenditure rhymes i mean we did have

the benefit of looking at the experience of northern as really and i think that really don't convince many people in new zealand that we did not want this virus in new zealand and that contributed to i think a very high level of it here and with the lock down missions that if you're less done for the 1st stage of this pandemic highly successfully what dangers professor baker do you see for the future since clearly the those low room for complacency in any country. no that's absolutely right and if you look at many of the countries discerning this approach of containment and lumination most of them events effects mainland china with an outbreak in beijing and south korea with an up and started in. astray similarly didn't extinguish or transmission in victoria and new south wales and now has a problem that it may have to go into in an out of lockdown for

a period and to essentially eliminate infection so i think if you are a museum now has i mean we did have a period of maybe feeling a little bit smug after we eliminated the virus and the problem was solved in the end we had a few branches of quarantine in the scene and it didn't fortunately cause outbreaks but i think was a real wake up call for all of us that we still have we're living in a world with a huge amount of and in fact growing transmission of the spirals and we cannot be at all complacent about it and we need to really keep managing our borders and keep doing large amounts of pissing in new zealand and meant sure out tracing systems kind of tracing systems are working well as a backstop measure as a solich can be done worldwide and the scientific community joining with the political communities and a renewed vigor and having a collect of approach to

a limitation and stomping this virus out. i very much hope so because we seen very diverse countries as you say 6 sicily contain and then eliminate this infection they do have we do have a sit backs occasionally and you expect that the numbers speak for themselves all these countries that are pursuing an emanation have very low mortality rates compared with the rest of the world and they will say show there's no biological area against eliminating this virus and just requires very good leadership and good infrastructure and decisive action and the techniques of who are very well established i think you know by the router or countries on earth that have sufficient resources to do them professor because the new destination just how dangerous is this virus still is in terms of the future for the what old health from the world economy. well i think if underestimating this pandemic i mean we

know from its behavior it has the potential of the next one to 2 years to fit maybe 60 percent or more who was population set civil 1000000000 people and alone why it may kill one percent of them so that tens of millions of people are going to die from this and in it and in many countries it's just getting started so i think we have to look at all the available options and in particular doing our best to stamp it out when we can so that's basically the sooner lumination approach and i'm really horrified in countries like united states with their actually relaxing the control measures in some areas and this is just like shaking a bottle of wine if you have a sappy wine and taking the top of that because only change the transmission will keep going and you're just going to see an overwhelming epidemic and those sittings that will overwhelm the house system so i just find this very depressing the

scenario and i hope that our particular our dance economies were in from how the science behaving and take really decisive action to protect their populations and also actually to support their economies finally professor baker obviously a via of us piled demick has caused enormous human suffering worldwide the economic effects are still being played out and that's also going to cause great suffering new zealand would be insulated from the world economic effects but can you see any benefits and terms of the new zealand performance the sort of raise the the profile in the steam of new zealanders as held in international terms of a good place to to go for a visit i think many people in the world will be thinking at the present moment can you see any any bright side formally the new zealand success and thus far and controlling the pandemic as an epidemiologist and a public health professor. the main message the main thing i hope will be that this

idea that you can beat the virus will become a global morrow at least for the countries that have the resources to take that approach and if you look at the countries that are succeeding are i mean i see no reason why the united kingdom doesn't pursue elimination immediately i know that scotland and ireland are very close to eliminating the virus and i think with a mandate from their leaders and support it could be eliminated ultimately from all of the british isles i don't see the as in unison where you can get rid of it and the problem really is that if you don't we don't know how long we'll be waiting for that scene or good antivirals it may be months and maybe years and the problem is that the immunity may be short lived and it may not proceed say the most vulnerable alley people so i do wonder why

a country like the united kingdom which is still got huge debt the scientific knowledge and is 50 and a very good infrastructure i mean ian anxious as a model we're all very imperious of why you're not pursuing this elimination strategy given all the potential advantages of as a baker from wellington new zealand thank you very much indeed for joining me on the alex salmon phil thank you. john the soft of the bully well i'm joined by dr mark hahn expose the author of the demick sexually he runs rules of the the come to switch of succeeded the taming coronavirus and the the many more who have not joined us then.

we go to work. straight home. we are segregated only by social class. people also in poverty by 1st. if you're born into a poor family if you're born into a minority family if you're born into a family that only has a single parent that really constrains your life chances people die lavish 15 years younger if you're born into generational poverty. it's a. fight every day so you meet your needs and the needs of your family.

welcome but so with don't have the detail behind spectacular success in new zealand so why generally have some countries succeeded in tackling the the cold virus while some clearly have not a time to colleagues but the office of the un demick century he gives us the compiled us ans until national. welcome back to the alex. so let's get to the grips with this question why have some countries like new zealand managed to handle extremely well well other countries countries like the

united kingdom have struggled others again like america out of the frauds of a mounting pandemic well i think that the countries that have done well the ones that saw what was happening in china in january and took early action in case the same to happen in their countries new zealand has done very well because it's very quickly tested check people coming into the country you know have a good contact tracing and testing system and you know have very clear messages about you know needing to isolate yourself and also you know contacts of contacts so the country that done well is striking how many of them are in southeast asia where they had previous experience of sa and therefore knew that sars was different from influenza so i think that was the basic cognitive error a lot of scientists were guilty of thinking about this outbreak in terms of the in

your lens of pandemic now you can understand to some extent at least why countries perhaps delayed going to a lot though it's much more difficult to explain why or why some countries have been food too fast coming out of our a lot don't given all that we have seen internationally and there's no one about the impact of of this virus and the fact that it's quite clear that if you stick your chen out covered 19 that it's going to hit you very hard indeed. well yes i mean it's been very difficult of course because of the economic impacts and the fact that there's only so long the relations will put up with social distancing so i think that you know a lot of pressure is built up as we've gone so she doesn't go on you know 2 months 3 months but you know your play you absolutely right the fundamental problem is and

many experts were warning about this that we you know shouldn't be lifting the social distancing measures until we were confident that we had a really good track trace and isolate system in place so that for instance we could have the confidence to reopen schools because we knew precisely where that down to granular local level where that those transmission chains were going all and that meant it as if you if you know where the virus is you can very quickly deploy contact traces to persuade people to yourself isolated to stop the infection spread the more widely and getting into places where you don't want it to go soaps schools will be one place you absolutely do not want this group of virus to go the problem is of course that we've got a system for instance in the u.k. where it's so highly centralized and these there are these big delays the tweet of

mason getting from a local level to the contact trace and central level and then flowing back we've seen that less than where you know only taken 2 weeks for them to really find out where these outbreaks were carrying with it lest. that was seen examples of countries who've got to go ups with the virus and by extreme measures in some cases mainland china taiwan has been a tremendous success other countries such as a stereo such as new zealand seem to have got a pretty farm grip on situation casting your eye 1st cross europe which countries do you think of got this under control and what must they do now to keep it under control well i mean i suppose the the best example of a country that really had an excellent. traces as it was it was german if they are currently testing something like 70000 people every single day that means they've

been doing that for some time by contrast in the u.k. even in march was only testing about 10000 but they were currently around 40000 so germany's number riess also did quite well i mean portugal also did quite well early on although in all all these countries now we're seeing you know resurgence as uk rotavirus and differ. so i think it's really important to recognize that some countries did an excellent job of testing and following where the virus was in their communities but even those countries are now facing these challenges of what to do as they have outbreaks coming back as people relax and may be let down their guards life so you know there have been concerns and lists that just in the past few weeks in certain areas where there's dense social health i think this is a pattern we're going to see you know we're going to see outbreaks in places where

people act together you know in these play rises or where you know there are particular plants factories such as meat processing plants in germany. we should be no particular sensis of these outbreaks a thing happening united states so we're going to have to really keep a wary eye and you know very quickly mobilize people to suppress the affection wherever. now there what opec fargas ations spokesperson has compared the stamping out. the virus to their quiver of a campfire in the forests if your system as a fact of you can stamp out the embers of is not a fact of it sets off a forest fire. in your estimation which companies have got their past and faces the end to a shape that allows them to stamp out the embers and what's come to style of what

to do well i think i mean the countries i mentioned in europe obviously germany is very good. and i'm not talking about the whole united kingdom because i think scotland and wales of even. better but in england where we're still really suffering because 2 reasons really one is that we have still a very centralized system so the countries are done well such as germany have succeeded because of a lot of the work of the tracing is done at a regional or local level and that means you don't have these long delays between you know the test going off and then coming back and then the information flowing back down to local level so the local contact traces and seems to be mobilized to bring those messages make sure that there's actually shutdowns in the communities where you need it. looking worldwide taiwan which is mentioned japan has

been quite successful in japan is interesting it seems to be not so much because of their contact tracing perhaps because they're much more used to social distancing anyway there's less handshaking it's a more full full culture where people don't hug and kiss the braces much so they've been quite successful there and also be countries like thailand south korea all countries where there was a certain mistrust early on of. data coming out of china but also they have this experience of sellers want so they knew you could suppress coronaviruses if you took rapid early action and had like a really big response act receipt system and. our professor michael becker from new zealand one. of the last countries where for experience in handling the virus find a way to improve their knowledge and to those countries which are still struggling

because the 2nd wave of of this virus could be deadlier than the fast as the that sort of thing is what the world health organization is designed to do the must be a method surely of getting the argument a cost for containment and eradication well i mean i think that's right but the problem is that what's missing is a global leadership of the political level a good example historically very quite recently is the bowler outbreak how do we suppress the vote or outbreak because president obama in that case stepped up a lot world leaders together you know a bolo was debated on the floor of the united nations and as a result there was a coup or the native military and humanitarian responsible united states. united kingdom and france flying in a military expertise to west africa. and finally mark you know as sad

human kind in terms of. the warfare and waste of of life as incapable of learning from history as possible even the most centrally of communications worldwide that the same might apply to pestilence that we are incapable of leveling the lessons of history and applying them for the good of humanity the big danger i really see is yes i still think that there is a large section the population who don't listen to historians but actually don't listen to any kind of experts so my wife really years that there is a lot of people who don't really believe in the critical virus they don't think it is real they think it's a hoax and you know a ruse to. you know in slave human populations of you know deny them their liberties and freedom of movement i'm i did worry is that you know for those

entrenched people who just don't believe anything that big told by science will they even take a backseat it was made available if they don't then they will present a risk to everybody else who does because as long as you know we don't achieve this early beauty either naturally or 'd through vaccination then there's always a chance that the virus will come back dr mark konigsberg author of the pandemic century thank you so much for joining me once again on the alex salmon show thank you so much also having me always a pleasure to talk to. the epicenter of this pandemic has moved progressively from asia to europe now to the americas the theater's africa is yet to come in each continent some countries of handled it well some badly and some very badly these differences do not depend on size nor the system of government new zealanders are a small liberal democracy and as one of the lowest deficits in the world the united

kingdom is a well loved liberal democracy and as one of the highest within the united kingdom england has performed significantly worse than the other whole nations characteristic which distinguishes success from failure is the effectiveness of public health policy banning diving upon the disease countries which have an established test and trace system have done well those who haven't struggled badly one thing is certain if you stick your chin out with this virus it will hit you hard and then hit you again perhaps more countries should have looks over to new zealand for an example of public health policy and operation certainly the united kingdom to hear an example from his old dominion would be the world coming up side down but nonetheless 2 that is exactly what should be done and though from just me the myself and all of the show it's goodbye for now stay safe we'll see you again next week.

i'll look forward to talking to you all. that technology should work for people. i really must obey the orders given human beings except. where such a conflict with the 1st law should your mind then just a vacation for should be very careful about official intelligence to the point obesity is too great trust ever the shia. would like to take on various jobs and with artificial intelligence will summon the demon.

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