people didn't realize many macs actually stood in for you for a few episodes during lock down and nobody even noticed so it was worth the $599.00 not $599.00 but 5 dollars 99 cents i paid for this many macs know that outsold elf on a shelf for 3 christmas that's a row before christmas got cancelled because the car council culture and the generation and this also justice i got a calculator only paid $6.00 for a member back of the 1970 s. i bought one for $800.00 so that was a good one the 1st quite a bargain this is a i've no idea what this is but it looks like a keyhole but it's attached to nothing so you on lock the present knowing not into the safe of vault of nothingness put the key here and enter the void so this this was definitely worth the 17 marymount i pay for it this is where i would keep my stuff in case i was out there hunting in the bush with davy crocket i would keep my

little packet of you don't do much that these days but it was a bargain at $47.00 and who doesn't want the spare in the cupboard i got this. mock out again and you know this is the standard style very stylish that moscow to where your own junk you know they were this even over 30 below 0 you can you can be made from the forehead down if you have your in shock on if you like in miami beach right is the amazing russian technology there so i know i did almost forgot here this is a 2 can i got also on the sal simply because i thought it would be a good friend for plucky you know plucky lonely a lot of times he's a manic depressive isn't it so i get him a nice 2 can like this he can have fun plucky the point is that one participates in one of these shopping stampedes and pretty much you put the stuff on the shell. and

never use that again but you feel better because you got a 50 percent discount well you know a lot of robin hood traders look at the markets and think they're getting 50 or 60 or 70 or 90 percent discounts when a company on the verge of bankruptcy their shares collapse in like wow a 90 percent discount before it declared bankruptcy it was $100.00 now it's only 10 what a bargain right well 20000 robin-hood traders are in for a rude surprise as c.b.l. prepares to file bankruptcy bloomberg reports small operator c.b.l. and associates is preparing to file for bankruptcy the headline hit after hours on friday sinking shares by at least 20 percent and you could see shares collapsed by 20 percent and they opened down 23 percent on monday mornings incredible you know these rabbited traders are really learning some important lessons about trading stocks and because in this case the perception that becomes something has dropped

90 percent that it can't go any lower and of course people who are experienced in markets know that if it's dropped 90 percent the chances of it dropping another 90 percent are actually quite high things that are trading at all time highs tend to trade at new all time highs things trading at all time lows tend to trade a new all time lows that's a very subtle and kind of nuanced real fact of trading you find it in books like reminiscence of a stock operator by just livermore written in the 1920 s. consider the bible of trade if you really want to learn how to trade these things i suggest you read that very slim book and educate yourself on how these things actually work but jeff in robin hood apps these kids jency i don't mind picking their pockets every day i can see where they're making the mistakes i just capitalize on their naivete but in my view i'm helping them learn it's like i could give money to the college fund of america or i could help robin hood traders lose money in my pocket well this isn't. interesting chart you can see the green line

here is the users of robin hood app versus the price of c.b.l. and you see as it keeps on going down and it keeps going down robinhood apertures keep on piling in just for fun i went over to twitter and entered the house and u.s. dollar sign c.b.l. to look at what people are talking about these day traders were saying on twitter holding c.b.l. and buying more to average down confident they're going to reach an agreement with the banks are selling. so this is somebody on july 18th the day then they basically were filing for bankruptcy so there are agreements in place with creditors that the creditors when you the equity holders lose as we've said many times as they keep on piling into these bankrupt companies yeah these robber who traders would be buying deck chairs on the titanic. because the price keeps going down and they're really cheap about a dollar a share i'm going to buy more while i'm on the lifeboat we have. like could do it

do it do it in the dot com days when i guess it was really generation x. participating in the dot com days and the last of the boomers like yourself and. you know people are piling in on these companies that had no earnings because they had bought like a u.r.l. like pets dot com but these were companies that were in the beginning of not only a tech industry which was still quite new at that point and you know the world wide web you know monetizing that that was brand new at the time in the late ninety's but also like these companies at least you could imagine that they might grow into something huge like pets dot com or whatever or even the infrastructure companies that did fall after that the hype that once everybody realized like the power of the possibility of the world wide web they went bonkers right well with these sort of bankruptcy speculators these shopping stampedes to invest in bankrupt companies

they're literally companies at the end completely of their life cycle hurts over 100 years old it was one of the 1st of the rental car companies now we're in the day and age of and other right sharing our ups that started to destroy that business and we're in a post pandemic world well not yet but one day we might be and people business people aren't traveling anymore malls dead they're not coming back and they're buying these bankrupt companies awaiting petroleum oil whole oil industry dead so these are end of life cycle that these young robin-hood aperture piling into the i think that's a remarkable kind of an interesting point there the gen x. and the last the baby boomers were speculating in the 1990s on the birth of companies that went public for the 1st time and they would have these pops and then there was a stimulus crash here the millenniums and jonesy are speculating on the death of

companies and companies that are dying and declared their dead companies or their client plowing their way in to speculate on the death of a company so they. seems to be a very elegant kind of comic circle being square here i'm not exactly sure what it all means but it is quite beautiful well i think it's kind of a trickle down situation if you look at these people piling into dead companies not only dead companies but dead industries dead business models. look at the chart from the united states the government the treasury monthly u.s. surpluses and deficit since 1980. look a huge the deficits are getting lookout more and more bankrupt slowly and then suddenly it's becoming bankrupt and yet you see you know investors around the world many of them from this mysterious caribbean area piling into treasuries there's often. excess demand for negative yield in bonds i mean we're making fun of

these millennial is and gen z. buying up robin hood app you know shares on robin hood apple bankrupt companies and dead business models but the same thing globally with investors bond investors doing the same thing they're being paid you know they're paying governments to borrow from them so like how much less insane how much of a stampede at the supermarket like we all make fun of those walmart rioters and we're making fun of the robin hood app rioters and what about the bond traders well it's almost short termism so the appeal of buying negative interest rate bonds is the greater fool theory that's always going to buy after you've bought it and you can get a short term profit in the reason why short term profit seeking a so paramount today is because people are broke they're bankrupt and their drug addled and they're drawn. and you put them on line with free trading on an hour and they do stupid things so the secret of course is to get rich slow but nobody has 20

years to do that everyone has to make money in the next 20 minutes or face to creditors and then close institutions pension funds you know state government is trying to make money in the next 20 minutes otherwise it's going to have to declare bankruptcy and that's unfortunate but true so it the risk gets more extreme like a gambling addict at the casino they only have one bet left before they're taken to prison and they put it all on the road the roulette wheel that's. america now that it's bankrupt no more defense ability the pentagon's blown out there like we're going to put their entire future of the country on the red spin that rule that will maybe wait and maybe it will when you know fred smith who is the founder of fed ex actually the company was down to us last $5000.00 or $15000.00 he did go to vegas he did put it on the roulette wheel he did when he saved the company without that lucky spin in vegas fed ex the company would never have survived ok but that was

a one in the 10000000000 shot you can't roll the entire future of the country on a rule on a spit of the whole that wheel well don it finally atta. i want to point out to the last seconds here i do want to point out that you know just like those robin hood app traders are hoping for something that never what happens in real life which is the bankruptcy that equity holders are going to make any money the same with all the investors in this failed business model of a global system based on the u.s. dollar any currency would fail and that reserve currency but we're all a doubling down on this hoping like some sort of miracle the bankruptcy judge basically makes us all whole come link up at the front of the fun about the. well we'll be back after this moment ago and.

you can be both with us you will. i 1st heard about we do know. from the helicopter for troops in iraq. i think the town actually told him no no i'm going to with military we have never forgiven korea the traitor the truth of the book it will be illegal to sell he was really starting to happen. in the pen

and journalese dyed his beard to see a lot of crimes to open up an audience. the idea of developing an anonymous digital phones and applying it to the media consensus. that was affronts. and in control interest and retaining would be crucial from unknown one of the world's most powerful news a womanizer derrius undersell rich founder to the song of the sun knowing. that there was a great deal of jealousy demands for the song the fit why won't it be more like oh they have hugh seen all for. instance with a. smile on. her dog for.

giuliani asides in solitary confinement the reason for terrorists await you know how it's a live person. i don't see him dying. i don't. know what he's going. welcome back to the kaiser report imax keyser time at cern santa fe mail when i'm or it is the host of breakdown n l w author he's also the author of long raves on sunday at his sub stack i follow this guy on twitter he's a deep thinker we're going to interview him right now he's pretty darn interesting but then a welcome hey thanks so much for having me everybody is talking about open a i j p t 3 is the most powerful artificial intelligence language model ever is this

something we should celebrate or fear i think it goes both ways i mean i don't think you can have a i advances without worrying a little bit about it the specifics of this one the model that's been released the thing that makes it less scary to me which may be relevant for other parts of our conversation is that it can't do narrative so basically this is soft in 16475000000000 inputs half a trillion words and so it can predict with incredible accuracy affectively what the next word is supposed to be based on context so it makes it easy for it to do things like imitate blog post in people style the scary thing then of course is that you can imagine you know essays op eds or whatever coming out from macs or from the fan you know that sound just like us if people are reading us a lot because it's good at doing that sort of imitation the less scary thing is it doesn't really have any comprehension of what it's putting out there it's just really a predictor so it's not kind of intelligent in any meaningful way it's just very impressive but it's still i think you know every advance and ai has implications

for her a lot of different roles in jobs and everything else and ultimately you know it's about trajectory and last year g p t 2 came out and people were blown away that it existed and it's taking an even less amount of time for it to be sort of this new version that's 2 orders of magnitude stronger so you know the questions we have with ai are think are bigger than. any one specific implementation or model but it reminds us that this is going to be a serious part of our future right you think can't stand narrative what does that mean and means that it has a hard time keeping a coherent thought it doesn't have a mental model of the world all it has is the ability to read other stuff and so let's say that you and i wanted to kind of construct a story or you know your we're going to talk about a bunch of different things today but you know if we talk about the wall street right wall street bath and robin hood and these sort of things i'm coming into that with a set of mental models that help put that in context for the world it doesn't have

anything like that and so what this amounts to is that after a couple paragraphs it can get kind of disjointed and weird and go on strange non sequiturs and tangents and so it can craft a story basically it can do bullet points it can do essays it can do a lot of very impressive things but it can't keep kind of a coherent picture of the world that it's all building up to play live in an age where pay paul. i don't really believe in any narrative right because everything's become fake this cell in the president says that's fake news and mainstream media is fake this a 1000 telling people that don't believe any narrative you have an ai bot that doing it is rape our taj as it were and it famous from what you find from other fake mez it's going to be difficult to convince anybody that anything is worth listening to and i think that might be one of the risks of this particular piece of technology now moving on the free money p.p.p. bailouts the massive money printing operations enhanced unemployment benefits

universal basic and come put the scale of the money printing into some sort of macroeconomic context and where does this go i mean it goes bigger i mean you're seeing already the all of the kind of light but a little headlines menuhin back on the hill talking about more in stimulus and wanting to get both the fiscal and the monetary engine going in concert you have the e.u. who just approved a $2000000000.00 carbon recovery package and so i think that the biggest thing for me is a whole the side the numbers if the normalization of the methods right when this happened there wasn't a question there wasn't a debate about whether we were going to engage in these programs there wasn't a national kind of conversation about whether the fed was kind of moving outside of its mandate with the special purpose vehicles it was just assumed that when things got bad the fed was going to be there and the real impact to me is again less the actual dollars and cents in fact is people who are arguing right now that you know as as a kind of percentage of g.d.p. that the fed's balance sheet is still low relative to the e.c.b.

in japan and things like that i think what matters much more is again the narrative implications and the normalization of the fed beds backstopping everything right when you say they are normalizing the fed going outside of us a normal channels and using special purpose vehicles to bypass let that's called what it is by. passed the law right there in libya paving lawlessly for the benefit of whom the other thing that any of the money is trickling down to a fast majority of folks in the country things always get stuck in the pockets of the kleptocrats and i can tell you there so isn't this effectively what we've seen as a coat it would be a coup if it wasn't already the power structure in place traded i mean and maybe revealing the coup that happened a long time ago more baldly but i think that the the reality is that there's only one instrument that they have to kind of exert their will on the markets and that's

an instrument that by definition is going to get to the sort of actors right that can tell you there's insiders faster and i think in a lot of ways that's why you're seeing people kind of throw out the assumption that that traditional policy is going to do anything for them and are just trying to kind of assert themselves like barbarians at the gate in the market so i think that the only qualms i have with your definition of this is a coup is that it's been going on for a long time and and if anything this just kind of made it more clear the antecedents got back to the reagan years and the federal reserve's greenspan put all the deregulation and basically wiping away the security back to 33 and 34 that cleaned up the mass of the speculative bubble of the 1920 so we're back kind of into almost a replay of all the excesses that occurred at that time the robin hood trading generation is out there on that app trading up a frenzy and they're buying stock in bankrupt companies with their with their

p.p.p. money and their and their universal basic and come money they're buying hertz and j.c. penney and whiting petroleum and mall operators c.b.l. these are companies that are going bankrupt and they're attracting a lot of training on behalf of a robin hood app traders tell me what's going on here. there's a lot i think that there's a couple different ways to look at it one is the question of does this actually have a role in markets and if you asked you know wall street professionals a few months ago whether this was a real force they would kind of dismiss it right there blowing it off i think that the tone has shifted a little bit and it's something that people are taking more seriously part of the reason for that is that this whole movement has infiltrated financial media which has historically been extraordinarily exclusionary almost by definition right financial media is designed to make people feel less knowledgeable and less understanding because it's made to feel that people who do understand all the

acronyms and and get it you know they feel like an in-group that's really what financial media does that's what it profits from so now you have forces like dave portnoy the founder of our school sports who are just absolutely warping the media narrative to fit what he's telling and he's it is an ignore of will force and that's creating more momentum around it which i think goes back to the strategy here and sammy all of this represents and some ways a base level discontent with with the options available to participate in the market and so rather than just kind of passively accepting that you just have to put your money into your 401 k. and go on your merry way people are saying no this is ridiculous i'm going to go see what we can do and that's why you have these sort of semi coordinated efforts like wall street bets which are not just kind of meaning although memes are an important part they're basically weaponize ing names and playing a game of chicken with the rest of the markets and i think that that's what the bankruptcy bat was all about is it was

a bet that they were going to make this thing looks so ridiculous that some percentage of people just had to foam 0 in and they were willing to play that that game of chicken in a way that potentially other institutional investors just couldn't hang with now i think with a part no i am the day traders on the robin hood traders they have buying hurts taka even though it's bankrupt as monitor they had a senate. and i think ultimately that's unhealthy for this generation the millennial thoughts and say they are getting hooked on senator i would go farther i would say it's the monetization of nihilism and it is a i mean you know not everyone right i don't want to go too far but i do believe that. one of the one of the responses to this that rings least true to me and that i think is the one of the the biggest examples we have of kind of pearl clutching right now is oh when this bubble inevitably blow up like it always will these guys are going to be disillusioned and my theory is that they disillusionment is table stakes for this disillusionment is the reason they got in disillusionment is going

to college in college that 12 years later without feeling like you got farther along disillusionment is not being able to buy a house because houses just keep going up disillusionment is as all of these things right it's the places that inflation is they can hold that aren't the silly little you know consumer price index and so if people are being told and structurally forced into participating in markets as their only means of getting ahead in any meaningful way why wouldn't you do it in a way that's more that's more kind of barbarian and serves your own interests and doesn't play by the rules when the rules have left you behind why would you accept them as the way to play the game if you think you can figure something out that out now that has nothing to do with efficacy especially in the long term but i understand the nihilism and the frustration but to your point i do think that it's unhealthy we don't want people to engage in our markets in is that even a bad faith because the whole thing is bad faith in some ways but in a way that presumed that nothing is there for them other than to grab the loot that

they can before the whole city burns to the ground enough out of what we have right now good point their value right off in about dollar milkshake and dollar wrecking ball tell us about it this is one of the biggest questions i think that really there is so much disagreement about in the world is on the one hand you have this theory that the dollar. is the only game in town ultimately and that the dollar and the u.s. more broadly effectively suck all the liquidity of the world into their system because it's the only place for excess savings in other parts of the world particularly asia and europe to go that's kind of the dollar milkshake theory call has kind of redefined it as the dollar wrecking ball and talked about its delivery as impact on other parts of the market the other side of it is has to do with the counterpoint i guess is that the dollar has been kind of weaker than some people thought or is reset a little bit and so really no one has any friggin idea right now about the dollar

and part of the opacity and part of the confusion in the system has to do with the fact that when we talk about the dollar we're not just talking about the dollar itself but dollar equivalents right we're talking about the the entire euro dollar system the entire world of u.s. dollar denominated debt that is not kind of in the in the formal u.s. bank system so it's i think that for me the reason that i cover it so often is that the place of the dollar is the world's reserve currency has and the way that that manifest has an outside impact on other assets other economies other real economy issues and it's one area where there really is not a single band of conventional wisdom there's very strong kind of competing theories for what happens so when paul krugman at the new york times says that what backs the dollar are a man with a gun with that example of monetizing nihilism yes or no i would call that foundational nihilism of a system but i would maybe argue that it's the other way around i think in some ways the dollar has been the most effective weapon in the u.s.

arsenal for a very long time now and part of the reason that there's big stakes is that if that changes who knows what happens samael thank so much being on the kaiser report i have to have me than s. going to do it for this edition of the kaiser a part of a makeover is a fair but i want to thank our guests a panel with a more if you like a touch treatise on kaiser report that i found bio. syria has been engulfed in civil war through almost 10 years it's cost hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions mall no one foresaw the peaceful protests of 20 of them this collating into a complex conflict between various armies geopolitical interests rebel groups and

jihadists. they are needed on the book on this is. the fight if you tell us if you say you hate because i. was a genius offers you. a. message to show it looked cool and. let you know deep down to look. closely at them and see if they are. an ordinary has sat that nice united never assassins the other day and then ashamed that i made a misstep hey get a shot then you. get it.

i 1st heard about you know. from the helicopter folks in iraq. or i think. i'm going to with military have never forgiven. this guy afraid of the truth of the book and make it look son he was. the story happened. in the pentagon journalese says you're going to see a lot of crimes to outnumber the audience. the idea of developing an anonymous digital copies and applying it to the media and since it's that was a friends. i didn't control interest and retain it with me for a short while and in the room one of the world's most powerful news will remain very serious and it's going to celebrate founder to the song to the song

knowing. that there was a great deal of jealousy in the minds for the song the fit why won't it be more like golf they have to steam all. the seats and. says my. goodness. we have giuliani sides in solitary confinement in the prison for terrorists await you know how it's a live person. i don't see him dying you know it's some. i don't. know what he's saying. capitalism in the united states the united states the leading capitalist in this country are now global. leaders the middle class without jobs without. fear. with.

the reality is a disaster and. you will see other people. trying to make a political career by you because they're. in today's headlines the u.s. china futa escalates as american agents break into the former chinese consulate in houston right after its vacated on washington's orders that after the u.s. secretary of state called on the other nations to join forces against china prompting fears that a new cold war has begun. also orthodox protesters burned turkish flags and the greek city of outrage by turkey's decision to turn. back into a mosque maybe i'm going to seize it.