we choose to look for common ground. time after time say we're going underground of the start of the 3rd round of u.k. u.s. talks to secure a post breaks a trade deal which could boost the u.k. economy by up to point 16 percent over 15 years i made accusations that the united kingdom is now more of a vassal state of washington than ever before but what if these trade talks turned sour and the answer be found in the world's happiest country as nato governments scramble for socialism to reverse decades of neo liberal deprivation in the face of

coronavirus we are talking with professor danny dorling what boris johnson may need to learn about plus health education and equality and the director of columbia university's climate in health program explains why one 3rd of the code is related deaths in the usa the country with more reported the deaths in any other could have been saved if the trumpet ministration to take an action just 2 weeks old is more coming up in today's going underground at 1st as britain contends with the west coronavirus jeffrey capita rate of any g 20 nation what could make britain or for that matter the country it arguably takes its foreign policy from the usa happy joining me now via skype from cambridge is oxford university is often akin to professor of geography danny dorling his latest work co-written with and get called in and is called fin topia what we can learn from the world's happiest country ok danny you're going to have to tell me thanks for going by you're going to have to tell me what the country is 1st of all i guess it's that last 3 years are the best is. i mean come on maybe we will know some aliases or karelia.

song but i mean apart from that it's cold it's racist as your book tells us it's dark all the time high incidences of alcohol high incidences of gambling is that what makes happiness that we're high and whole abused that has been reducing dramatically the pins are incredibly worried about gambling which is probably why they nationalized it take control of it to get it down they are worried about the right racism in finland it's not particularly high. as far as europe in may so goes but it's an issue of aids and you just have highlighted the things which are worse which we look at in this book but if you look at the things that the best sadistic finless a few years ago strangely finally got the courage up to list the 100 free international social rankings a which finland ranks one to wait and there is no other country in the world bank

1st 2nd or 3rd in over 100 lashes and you explain that in no way is this because finland is imo isolated from geopolitical history this is despite having a turbulent past sandwiched between east and west russia and sweden in its case how did it manage to navigate and i know you go into great detail just briefly added manish and i gave on either side to empires just over a century ago finland was one of the poorest parts of europe and examples of a warrior people might it ended up in a way on the whole side in the 2nd world war had a reparations after that by not being dominant by actually having been a colony of sweden the colony of russia a colony actually in germany. fields have to work together and did there was incredible struggles in the ninety's this is the seventy's the change the education

system to something better in hindsight you could say that finland has an advantage of not having been dominant in the past of not having a supercilious attitude about itself in a way in europe finland is kind of the opposite of england in there was a heart of the biggest empire about 70 finland was one of the colonies of fundamental though to this happened as according to your book is the idea of equality a sign i don't know whether the finnish communist party never went away there was a cause a civil war that you charged it never embrace the reagan fashion world fully even though there were from time to time departures into privatisation which of course led to it to suffering 2008 yes it did. a little bit to the finish complete with this communist party left that there actually in the left party which is much more dominated by a full a women's parties the left party in finland is part of the common government in the lives of 5 parties so if the left in britain want to look.

for what they should do they really should look at finland where left wing parties left of social democrats came together and actually stopped fighting each other feel and have so many lessons so many people back out of these things that yeah you talk about women's rights you and your co-author of course writing in britain where a one figure came out during this pandemic that most children are one paycheck away from not having enough to eat just explain some of the social protections that you suggest are essential for happiness oh what a difference i mean a current situation in england is truly awful the treasury produced or polls on the 8th of july claiming that the poll is borne anybody else b.b.c. news stories too and house of commons so. committees a treasury committee and a public rez committee dominated both by conservatives boast that i mean about government but for the lack of say security and the fact that man if you look at

the standard life data we're looking at 10000000 households possibly 25000000 people in serious financial difficulty and it buys it phin and have been storing p.p.a. protective equipment in case a pandemic it is extremely hard to end up on the streets in vinland and even are that the flight that in the by this late has the lowest times that's right in the whole of europe. finance spends the most educationally this is where it beats i was going to lay the countries of the nordic countries spends the most on the bottom quarter of children a quarter who are the poorest the who are you might have the worst school they have the most spent on the contras the haps the guy guess who we spent it eventually the most money on well what is it actually it's not arms is it. no no we spend 33 percent of all the money that we spend on secular education goes on the

7 percent of you to go to private school yet private schools emerges as a theme in the education chapter i mean do you see it as essential the destruction of a private education system to create. a more equal society that will then create human happiness. it's quite your story in finland isn't so much of that in the never had much of a private education. schooling system in fact most of us never did it's a very good english and slightly scottish thing the big battle in finland was against grammar schools and sixty's and seventy's and selective education and the idea of educating all but also finland has has one i would idea that f. mythical school should be good you shouldn't have parents worry about their children going to figure schools simply by the universities there is a university hierarchy. but it is incredibly narrow and degree some of the universities which is seen more towards the bottom are seen as very very high value

your completely qualified the idea that the master's degree from a university in finland might help less because of where where that comes from isn't there if you think about you it is like a kind of classroom children 30 or joke. in many ways when it comes to captivates life expectancy the pandemic inequality can we can all see the it has at the bottom of most of the rankings of european states and finland is at the top so it's like picking the child who does best at school it will that have every chance but you know and it can it can get a bit great looking at the going to how well and how good finland does there are all kinds of reasons as to why because there always will be european country that does better on average than all the european countries they have if you're not dog great. when the britain is doing so badly but if anyone thinks finland is somehow an alien you do show that it's been affected by the vicissitudes of globalization

you say that we know it from nakia of course the telecoms market they got into there because presuming it was dark and big distances and lots of snow but then too they too were affected by globalization they're going to be now maybe by sanctions on china and they too tried out some elements of well not the full lansley approach we've done here to privatizing national health services but they also tried different types of marketization in the health services they're not that alien now no they're not they make mistakes but what's interesting is the country that small few people and was a sum of one point so reliant on something like mach units and think of the bust and spread out over what they do you can suddenly see nakia collapse in the most most popular company it's been beaten by mouth advertising we now spend a fortune on harm that others actually is the little about they bounce back and

there is a there is a resilience there is the idea that you have to really do it yourself and it isn't an amateur it's analogous you see any united states now we're the best in a while make america great again the great there is now against you see in britain which i think comes from running in and by human and by telling ourselves that you deserve to live in that bucket. equally you will feel and it's we have to work hard we have to learn we have to be able to do these things but don't let other people get above that the exploit that was because that will be in a fish this is to 6 of the most shocking we found well that work life balance they were about how people and people without the great people without high school of occasions where most able to choose what hours they worked. and you can see this if you go to helsinki and try to get. something to eat at my not to look at night it's really hard because nobody wants the washing dishes dishes that never look at night

the most money does the couple was when fit in the produce the lowest in mortality rate in world history fewer than 100 babies died it was recently you know that's absolutely stunning one might say that ok finland hasn't had the genocidal history of the united states against native americans indigenous peoples the britons colonial legacy is it all over now though i mean there are sanctions being imposed on china boris johnson obviously has expelled the hallway of a 5 g. seems to say one's nakia from finland not. completely dependent on chinese component also there are sanctions threatened on russia which presumably will also hit the finnish economy as russia has a big trade trading partner of finland it can't get away this time every. training trick in situations before you've got a member of fin there was on the border of the cold war it was in the most

dangerous place when we were preparing to fight a nuclear war in the middle you know. i think it will get away with this not least as the power of the usa and the way 95 companies have kept their share price in america netflix amazon. apple microsoft the deep these can't these companies are exploiting the rest of the world producing something with google so it's a 5th what she sees something that isn't that hard to do a search engine is not that clever delivering goods by truck on the trip so this is not that clever america the pens almost 5 monopoly companies as it annoys the rest of the world we're going to start to look at why are you using those 5 american countries companies for its distribution of goods for it's entertainment. we're going to start looking at doing it in different ways i think certainly the friends of famous for diplomacy nobody's going to tell the americans and their face you

know really really really and lawyers now but i do think america has shot itself in the foot one time too many and really would not be concerned about its power over than of course its enormous military well those 5 presumably companies obviously say what they do is very complicated and very innovative. about the facebook i could a bit about how to facebook when i was a university student why didn't you that's what my exact words were tell you i was going to finish by asking you ok of you think finland is going to manage to traverse this complicated minefield ahead of it in terms of geopolitical economic warfare climate change due to finland what nothing else as it's one of the biggest fears in finland which is why finland that that it is so i think net 0 for 25 like 15 years i had the u.k.

why does there have been more green technologies asked than anyone else i know is life in the forefront of producing proteins only meat and do not require sunlight and soon as you know because they like to buy proteins you really can produce an enormous amount of food in very small area it's ironic really that some of the people in the wild to live in at least in winter some of us gets ready to graze but in winter some of the coldest parts of the planets are worrying most about climate change it does because they have sort of the fins i think over their global outlook the magnanimous way in which they operate because if you value each other equally if you see people as well while sigal country it's easier to see people outside you can choose while as well president enjoying thank you. after the break. team next season we investigate the potential resurgence in the spread of

coronavirus in the coming months with the director of columbia university's climate and health program all of them all going to a going underground. a dark industry comes to life in los angeles every night. dozens of women sell their

bodies on the street many of them under-age. los angeles police reveal a taste of their daily challenge if you're going to exploit for a child here in los angeles are there we're going to have you see officers going undercover as sex workers and customers to fight 6 trade. welcome back around a virus has killed over half a 1000000 and like a hurricane as disproportionately ended the lives of the vulnerable but how valid is the metaphor of a hurricane as we approach winter when according to one study the u.k. alone may see 120000 more killed columbia university research as argue that not

only could lives have been saved earlier but that it may be possible to predict a virus like you predict the weather the director of columbia university's climate and health program professor geoffrey shaman joins me now from new york city thank you so much geoffrey for coming on so we've heard about the influence of manmade climate change on creating new pandemics on this show before but you're working on the relationship between climate forecasting and forecasting influenza just tell me about the research well the components of it really what it is actually using climate conditions trying to understand how they affect the survival by billy the transmissibility of different types of gin such as simple ones and that sort of a direct relationship between atmospheric conditions and what are the outcomes for infectious diseases the other component though is to use the methods that are used to generate numerical weather protection that is the framework the mathematical and statistical approach is. apply them to infectious disease systems generate

forecasts of those systems we sometimes actually combine the 2 methods together to make an even better prediction system but that's the gist of it that's what we're trying to do and try to make something that will give us some insight into what is coming our way in the future well when you live in an island like britain it's not a forecast from a day to day but we haven't had the day to day week to week press conferences and so on telling us about deaths infections and so on of coronavirus you really think that the aim here in the possibility it holds out is that we may be able to forecast week to week prevalence of cove that i actually don't and that may come as a shock to you because i don't think you get the point we certainly are still slipping away for cope at 19 and the reason is that we're disrupting it so much in order to make a prediction of a hurricane making landfall for instance you don't expect human society and it debra's to disrupt what that hurricane does similarly when we make predictions of seasonal flu humans are fairly predictable about what they do they don't change

their patterns and we don't do that much to disrupt it so we can make predictions based on the dynamics and the environmental forcing of that system but for covert 19 the world is taking it with a different very different approach it's highly disruptive and what's going to happen in the future is strongly depends on what we societies do what our political leaders dictate we should do is are there shelter in place orders are they compelling mask usage or what the general public is going to do are they going to isolate are they going to social distance are they going to use the mass and how well because we don't have a crystal ball into human behavior both politically and at an individual level to say what the public will do we're not making forecasts of what will happen or overnight team i should add though that doesn't mean we don't try to project possible future outcomes we do do that we try to scope out one of the range of possibilities and you might ask well why bother doing it. it can't be specific and the aim there is to try to suss out what are the possible realistic things that

could happen what are the end members one of the guy hosts that are going to say how bad this might get or how bad it might not be dependent on what we do but it's not really a forecast where it's going to tell you how many cases we're going to have because we're being much too disruptive with this virus we're trying to stop it so aside from the political decisions on lockdowns on mosques and so on you can though still find correlations of a kind with. maybe no wind speed maybe no precipitation would say something like temperature so. that can be added into the mix of our analysis as i said there was analysis here from southampton university saying 120000 could be killed here this winter. right and so what they're looking at there is a 2nd wave coming in now there have been a number of studies that have been put together that have tried to look to see whether or not this disease this pathogens r c o b 2 is sensitive to conditions such as u.v.

radiation temperature and humidity conditions and one of the reasons why we look at that is that there are 4 endemic coronaviruses these are viruses that are circulating in our mitts all the time they cause very mild illness they go by funny names like o c 43 and h k you want or what we notice because we have been tracking them for that long simply because they're very mild or we've noticed over the last 67 years is that in fact they are very seasonal and there seasonality mirrors that of influenza in that they peak in december january and february and they're very minimal in their activity in the summer months so there's concern with this novel virus which is also a corona virus and it's related to these viruses that it may have some innate seasonality when people have looked at it what they have found is there is some evidence that it does have some seasonality it's not enough to stop it in the summer time though right now because there's too little immunity in the population and the virus

itself is too aggressive but it may not be as transmissible we're still see it everywhere in the united states where i have it's running rampant but the concern is as we get into october november december the virus will become more transmissible because of environmental conditions and art and it will be even more difficult to control and we could see a very large 2nd weight stand this is no peer reviewed as yet but it's a correlation a strong correlation which of course may not mean causation but there is a strong correlation to suggest in this seasonality yes actually there are some studies that are out as peer reviewed studies at this point but there are a lot of other studies that are just crazy prints at this point it's very noisy there are a lot of people who investigated this line of research would see. on average the balance of evidence says that there is some modulation due to environmental conditions of the transmissibility of this virus not enough to stop it in summer time in the northern hemisphere but enough to say that there may be some more

concerns as we go into winter when it becomes even more transmissible and harder to control it may not be weather specific with that how do we arrive at a number of 150000000 cases rather than the w.h.o. has 15000000 cases a coronavirus scientists and you think we're only getting a 10th of what's really going on. all that has to do with some modeling studies that we've done and we can also see that now from cereal cratylus asses where they tested for antibodies broadly in the population for instance in new york city if you look at how many people have been infected it's about 2.5 percent of the population have actually had confirmed cases but everybody's testing shows that about 20 percent of the population hasn't been infected at this point so that's a multiple of roughly 8 to 10 that we're seeing are 8 to 10 times as many people have been infected and the reason this virus gets around so easily is that the majority of people who are infected with it never see clinical care their symptoms

are never bad enough that they actually want to see a doctor they may have mild symptoms of those sorts routes of aches a little bit of fever they may even stay home but it's not enough to motivate them to see that doctor as a consequence they're not captured they're never swabs and they're never put into those cases counts so we've seen this over and over again that there are undocumented infections associated with a lot of common respiratory viruses and it's what the scylla takes their ability to get around a lot or we're talking about overestimating the number of deaths and double counting because of statistical problems you're saying what you just said there were how many more may have been killed than actually go into the statistics so i'm not talking about deaths right now i'm talking about the number of cases that. exists out there i'm talking about the fact that when you see it out let's say in the united states right out of 607-5000 cases in a day you can actually multiply that by 8 to 10 say they're actually 8 to 10 times

as many infections that day in terms of mortality there is a sense that it's underestimated to an extent but the estimates that i've seen that i can leave are reliable suggests that it's about 20 to 30 percent undercount so you can multiply it by 1.21.3 well that's certainly know what we're hearing from the white house as you know. if you're talking about the white house are you talking about the projections the white house is making saying that we could see this many cases well that there are you talking about how many we've seen already well as far as we know the cases that we're in the graph the white house press conferences are the number of cases that occur over 24 hour period and of course the number of deaths over 24 hour period but you're saying they are underestimated numbers they are a little bit underestimated could you specifically tell me what specific remark the white house you're referring to the clear for it well well of course donald trump said that the united states has the best mortality numbers and has actually

correlated testing to the number of new cases rather than any other correlation but i mean no away from that. used also appears to echo what neil ferguson here one of the top advisers until he had to resign from imperial college saying that the lockdown was implemented too late we'll fix in here said the. may be tens of thousands could have been saved if the lockdown was earlier something you agree with the in the united states as well yes as a matter of fact we've done a specific study on that in the united states and the reality is that a virus like this is growing it's growing exponentially and the earlier you jump on an exponential process it has enormous diffidence it's actually going to greatly reduce the number to. cases and the mortality associated with it we've actually quantify that for the united states and shown that if we'd done exactly what we did in all the heterogeneous fashion were different cities were implementing controls at different time points and to different degrees but if you just backed all that

up one week and all the cities it done it one week earlier it would have more than half the mortality that occurred in the 1st wave the whites are the united states so definitely if you can jump on this early you're going to do better and this is not just about looking at it retrospectively it's about looking at what it means going forward so if we're concerned that there's risk of aids wintertime wait comic we have to be very vigilant we have to be willing to reimpose the measures that allowed us to control this virus in the 1st place certainly for you in the u.k. in the u.s. we haven't been able to control it but in the u.k. and other places where they have been able to squash it out you have to be very vigilant you have to jump on any flare ups that occur with the virus very quickly otherwise it's going to get out of control well grow exponentially again and all overwhelm you if you're not that vigilance well we've we've squatted down but we obviously have a higher death because better rate than the united states as the figures currently show and in fact what the government here is saying is the important thing now is

to get back to work get the economy running the g.d.p. growth going i understand you who want some environmental scientists say that cove it is a sign of a ripple effect of climate change well you know i actually don't believe that i believe that comit is parallel and analogous to some of the features we see in climate change i think komen is a manifestation of more our use of resources our deforestation aren't pro-choice and on wildlife our population growth and some of the other issues that lead to sustainability but i do not see a direct connection to climate change and the emergence of cover 90 professor geoffrey sherman thank you. you're welcome thank you for that's over the show will be back on wednesday 62 years to the day u.s. president. shortly before. the seas for its rocket program. to join the underground facebook instagram.

and illegal takeover of the government by a small group. rather than revolutionaries or soldiers small group the corporations when you have a tiny group of people who have all the power you have to have some means to make sure the rest of us don't get together and take it back. police are sacrificing. places that capitalism exploited and destroyed for profit and left behind misery poverty environmental devastation and so you see things like voter suppression building more prisons you seem gerrymandering all sorts of undemocratic practices. in that world for well focused world.

question the. this hour's headlines stories on news surgeon coronavirus cases in spain and its tourism several countries impose restrictions on travel to the country that says the head of the world health organization warns that the pun demick is worsening. the pond to be continues to accelerate. in the past 6 weeks the total number of cases roughly. continues to grip american cities with less than $100.00 days to go before the presidential election we assess the impact it is.